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The conference title games pit the 2 top seeds against the 2 hottest teams in the league as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Cincinnati Bengals (winners of 10 straight games) in the AFC and the Philadelphia Eagles host the San Francisco 49ers (winners of 12 straight) i the NFC.
For this week’s bets, we’re going RB-heavy as both runners and receivers, expecting a Pro Bowl QB not to meet his Over/Under number and an elite receiver finding the end zone.
Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Conference Championship Games player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
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NFL Conference Championship Games prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:02 a.m. ET. All games ET.
Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase SCORES A TD (+100)
– At Chiefs, 6:30 p.m. (CBS)
The Chiefs defense hasn’t found an answer for Chase, who has run roughshod over them in their 3 meetings the past 2 seasons.
Chase has caught 24 passes for 417 yards and 4 Dsin those 3 games. Because of Cincinnati’s other weapons, the Chiefs can’t simply double Chase to take him away. Kansas City’s primary weakness as a team is the back end of its defense and few players are capable of doing more damage than Chase, both in volume of receptions and getting into the end zone.
Even money for 1 of the most dangerous receivers in the league going up against a pass defense that gets burned too often by Joe Burrow? Yes, please.
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Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts UNDER 250.5 passing yards (-115)
– Host 49ers, 3 p.m. (FOX)
In the 2 games he has played since returning from injury (both against the New York Giants), Hurts hasn’t been lighting people up through the air. His passing yardage totals have been 229 and 154.
The strength of the Philadelphia offense is its balance – it wants to run as often as it throws. The result is that Hurts makes big throws, but doesn’t get the kind of volume passing necessary to blow past 250 passing yards against a tough 49ers defense. He would have to be way behind and 1-dimensional and I don’t see that happening barring catastrophic turnovers.
This game is going to be a battle of clock control and field position. Both teams are going to look to move the chains and string together 10- or 12-play drives to get points. Both teams have offensive lines geared to open run lanes and eat up 40 seconds every time they do. Hurts has the ability to top this number, but with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, neither QB will be taking big risks downfield. That lends itself to throwing for less than 250 yards.
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Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-115)
– At Chiefs, 6:30 p.m. (CBS)
The Bengals aren’t the most consistent team when it comes to running the ball, but last week on the road in Buffalo, Mixon ran 20 times for 105 yards and a TD. Last year in the playoffs when the Bengals needed to win on the road against the Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl, Mixon ran 21 times for 88 yards.
What has emerged with Mixon’s role in the offense is until a team consistently shuts him down or 3 or 4 carries in a row, the Bengals keep calling his number.
He will likely need 15 carries to surpass his O/U number, but the Bengals have tended to lean on him on the road when they need a win and he has delivered against the top teams in the AFC.
San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey OVER 31.5 receiving yards (-115)
– At Eagles, 3 p.m. (FOX)
This is calling a home run shot or something close to it. McCaffrey hasn’t topped this week’s O/U in the last 4 games, but neither the Seattle Seahawks nor Dallas Cowboys blitz nearly as much as the Eagles do, which plays into McCaffrey’s hands.
This isn’t a lot of yards needed to pick up, but what the 49ers play-callers will be looking at are to design 2 or 3 plays with the intention of taking advantage of the Eagles’ defensive aggression. Designed screen passes to a wide open running back stop that in a hurry.
All it takes is 1 or 2 completed planned screens called to get McCaffrey in space and he could hit this number with 1 reception. His O/U for receptions is 4.5. If he gets 5 catches (or 4), it will be difficult not to surpass this number.
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 78.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Bengals, Sunday 6:30 p.m. ET.
This pick is predicated by 2 things – Patrick Mahomes not being 100 percent healthy (so he won’t be running) and Kelce’s incredible streak of postseason success.
Over the last 3 years, the Chiefs have played 7 postseason games. Kelce has caught 65 passes for 757 yards and 8 YDs – an average of 9 catches for 108 yards and a TD per game. In that 7-game span, he has never had less than 95 receiving yards in any of them.
For those concerned that his production might be hindered if Mahomes isn’t at full health, he wasn’t last week for most of the game and Kelce was targeted 17 times, catching 14 passes for 98 yards and 2 TDs.
If he merely comes close to his playoff average for receptions, Kelce dances his way well past this O/U number.
More NFL Championship Games coverage
- Parlay: Let’s make some money | SBW staff picks
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