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The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs has 4 intriguing matchups with 6 legitimate Super Bowl contenders featuring lots of star players.
For this week, we pick one of the hottest touchdown scorers in the league to hit the end zone again, a Hall of Fame QB with an Over that is little too high and a running back and a pair of wide receivers that history says should surpass their respective O/U numbers
Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Divisional Round player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
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NFL Divisional Round prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1:10 p.m. ET. All games ET.
San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle SCORES A TD (+125)
– Host Dallas Cowboys, Sunday 6:30 p.m. (FOX).
QB Brock Purdy has locked in on Kittle as his primary TD target since taking over as the 49ers starter. In the last 5 games, Purdy has thrown 12 TDs – 7 to Kittle and 5 to everyone else combined.
The Cowboys are known for taking chances defensively and leaving their back 7 to take receivers 1-on-1 in coverage. If Kittle gets locked into a footrace with someone like LB Leighton Vander Esch, it will be a mismatch that will result in points being scored.
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Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 310.5 passing yards (-115)
– Host Jacksonville Jaguars, Saturday 4:30 p.m. (NBC).
Mahomes is 1 of the players I hate taking the Under against because he is so productive and explosive, and he topped this number in 10 of 17 regular-season games this season.
However, these are the playoffs and it’s been a different story when Mahomes is trying to win and not take unnecessary risks that can allow an opponent to stay within striking distance.
In 11 postseason starts, Mahomes has topped this high point just 4 times. This will be his 1st playoffs without WR Tyreek Hill, who played a big role in all 4 games when Mahomes did throw for more than 310 yards.
I wouldn’t blame anyone who takes the Over, but the Chiefs should be able to handle their business early enough that the run game will be used to drain the clock in the 2nd half instead of piling on.
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Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon OVER 47.5 rushing yards (-115)
– At Buffalo Bills, Sunday 3 p.m. (CBS).
This is a low number primarily because Mixon hasn’t topped this number in 4 of his last 6 games. But, the reason has been a lack of carries, not effectiveness.
In the 4 games he hasn’t hit 49-plus rushing yards, he has had 11 or fewer carries. With all of the passing that is expected in this game, it may well be the team that runs more effectively that comes away with the win.
The Bengals offensive line is a mess due to injuries, but that will likely impact the pass more than the run. Mixon may need to get close to 15 carries to top this point, but 1 splash run will make it a lot easier as the game wears on.
In the Bengals’ run to the Super Bowl last season, Mixon averaged 17 carries a game. If he gets anywhere close to that, he blows by this point.
Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown OVER 71.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host New York Giants, Saturday 8:15 p.m. (FOX).
Perhaps no player has made a bigger impact on a new team than what Brown has brought to the Eagles. In his last 6 games, he has 95 or more receiving yards in 5 of them and had 70 receiving yards in the other.
What has made Brown so dangerous down the stretch has been his yards per catch. Over the last 6 games, he has caught 35 passes for 665 yards – a 19-yard average. This includes 8 catches for 165 yards in 2 games against the Giants – an average of 20.6 yards per reception.
At his current rate, Brown will only need 4 receptions to surpass this number and he has caught at least 4 passes in each of his last 8 games.
Bills WR Stefon Diggs OVER 79.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Bengals, Sunday 3 p.m. ET (CBS).
When the Bills need critical catches and yardage, QB Josh Allen always looks to Diggs first. While the receiver’s numbers in the second half of the season weren’t what we’ve become accustomed to seeing, when there is a lot at stake, he and Allen have been killers.
In Week 18 when the Bills needed a win to assure that they would be at home for this game, Diggs caught 7 passes for 104 yards and a TD. Nobody else on the team had more than 3 catches or 40 receiving yards.
When the Bills needed to get through Miami to advance in the playoffs, Diggs caught 7 passes for 114 yards.
There aren’t many No. 1 receivers that get the volume of targets and receptions as Diggs. He’s in line to be targeted more than 10 times and catch 6 or 7 passes. If he does that, this number will be very difficult for Diggs not to get past.
More NFL Divisional Round coverage
- Tipico odds: Lines and totals for all 4 games
- Parlay: Let’s make some money | SportsbookWire staff picks
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