The Baltimore Ravens announced they have officially used the franchise tag to retain outside linebacker Matthew Judon for the 2020 NFL season. However, that doesn’t mean he’ll actually be playing for Baltimore come Week 1.
All offseason, I’ve speculated that tagging and trading Judon might be in the Ravens’ best interests. If Baltimore feels they won’t be able to get a deal done at a value they like, trading Judon for draft capital would make a ton of sense as they look to rebuild their depth chart at the position. But just what would the going rate for Judon actually be?
Of course, everything depends on the final market for pass rushers and the level of interest the rest of the league would show. A single team inquiring about Judon likely wouldn’t return a ton of value whereas if a handful of teams are interested in pulling off a trade, the Ravens could drive up the asking price. The fewer premier pass rushers available will likely dictate all of this and with several expected to get the franchise tag this offseason as well, it could lead to Judon being the big prize of free agency.
To figure out the floor and ceiling for Judon, we have to look to previous trades for pass rushers. Luckily for us, last season saw a bevy of deals pulled off, so we have a pretty good indication of what to expect here.
2019 pass rusher trades:
- New England Patriots Michael Bennett to the Dallas Cowboys for a 2021 seventh-round pick (midseason before trade deadline)
- Miami Dolphins Robert Quinn to the Cowboys for a 2020 sixth-round pick
- Cleveland Browns Emmanuel Ogbah to the Kansas City Chiefs for safety Eric Murray
- Philadelphia Eagles Michael Bennett and a 2020 seventh-round pick to Patriots for a 2020 fifth-round pick
- Chiefs Dee Ford to San Francisco 49ers for a 2020 second-round pick
- Seattle Seahawks Frank Clark and a 2019 third-round pick to Kansas City for a 2019 first- and a third-round pick, as well as a 2020 second-round pick
- Houston Texans Jadeveon Clowney to Seahawks for Jacob Martin, Barkevious Mingo and a 2020 third-round pick
Of that group, Ford, Clark and Clowney are the ones that most clearly mirror the Ravens’ and Judon’s situation now. All three had been franchise tagged because a long-term deal couldn’t be figured out. For Clark and Ford, they ended up being traded to teams that were willing to pony up the cash to lock them up.
For the Chiefs, they jettisoned Ford, who ended up getting a five-year contract worth $85 million ($17 million a year average) from the 49ers, according to Over The Cap. Kansas City ended up trading for Clark, giving him a five-year deal worth $104 million ($20.8 million a year average), according to OTC. Clowney ended up being a one-year rental that will likely be worth a third-round compensatory pick if he signs elsewhere this offseason as a free agent.
Let’s better break down what the floor, ceiling and realistic trade values are for Judon given that history and what the Ravens should do in those situations.
Previous trades / Floor / Ceiling / Realistic