Tag: Matthew Judon trade

What could the Ravens realistically trade Matthew Judon for this offseason?

Given the trades of last season, we have a pretty good idea what the Baltimore Ravens could get if they wanted to trade OLB Matthew Judon

The Baltimore Ravens announced they have officially used the franchise tag to retain outside linebacker Matthew Judon for the 2020 NFL season. However, that doesn’t mean he’ll actually be playing for Baltimore come Week 1.

All offseason, I’ve speculated that tagging and trading Judon might be in the Ravens’ best interests. If Baltimore feels they won’t be able to get a deal done at a value they like, trading Judon for draft capital would make a ton of sense as they look to rebuild their depth chart at the position. But just what would the going rate for Judon actually be?

Of course, everything depends on the final market for pass rushers and the level of interest the rest of the league would show. A single team inquiring about Judon likely wouldn’t return a ton of value whereas if a handful of teams are interested in pulling off a trade, the Ravens could drive up the asking price. The fewer premier pass rushers available will likely dictate all of this and with several expected to get the franchise tag this offseason as well, it could lead to Judon being the big prize of free agency.

To figure out the floor and ceiling for Judon, we have to look to previous trades for pass rushers. Luckily for us, last season saw a bevy of deals pulled off, so we have a pretty good indication of what to expect here.

2019 pass rusher trades:

  • New England Patriots Michael Bennett to the Dallas Cowboys for a 2021 seventh-round pick (midseason before trade deadline)
  • Miami Dolphins Robert Quinn to the Cowboys for a 2020 sixth-round pick
  • Cleveland Browns Emmanuel Ogbah to the Kansas City Chiefs for safety Eric Murray
  • Philadelphia Eagles Michael Bennett and a 2020 seventh-round pick to Patriots for a 2020 fifth-round pick
  • Chiefs Dee Ford to San Francisco 49ers for a 2020 second-round pick
  • Seattle Seahawks Frank Clark and a 2019 third-round pick to Kansas City for a 2019 first- and a third-round pick, as well as a 2020 second-round pick
  • Houston Texans Jadeveon Clowney to Seahawks for Jacob Martin, Barkevious Mingo and a 2020 third-round pick

Of that group, Ford, Clark and Clowney are the ones that most clearly mirror the Ravens’ and Judon’s situation now. All three had been franchise tagged because a long-term deal couldn’t be figured out. For Clark and Ford, they ended up being traded to teams that were willing to pony up the cash to lock them up.

For the Chiefs, they jettisoned Ford, who ended up getting a five-year contract worth $85 million ($17 million a year average) from the 49ers, according to Over The Cap. Kansas City ended up trading for Clark, giving him a five-year deal worth $104 million ($20.8 million a year average), according to OTC. Clowney ended up being a one-year rental that will likely be worth a third-round compensatory pick if he signs elsewhere this offseason as a free agent.

Let’s better break down what the floor, ceiling and realistic trade values are for Judon given that history and what the Ravens should do in those situations.

Previous trades / Floor / Ceiling / Realistic

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Ravens franchise tag Matthew Judon

The 2020 NFL free agency will have one fewer pass rusher available after the Baltimore Ravens used the franchise tag on OLB Matthew Judon

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After watching C.J. Mosley, Za’Darius Smith and Terrell Suggs leave for greener pastures and bigger deals last offseason, the Baltimore Ravens don’t want a sequel this year. The Ravens have used the franchise tag on outside linebacker Matthew Judon to keep him from hitting the free-agent market.

The decision hung over Baltimore since it lost to the Tennessee Titans in the playoffs. Judon was the most prized pending free agent for the Ravens and the one most likely to earn contract offers that Baltimore couldn’t have reasonably matched.

If Judon signs the franchise tag, the Ravens will have until July 15 to work out a long-term contract extension. Of course, Judon doesn’t have to sign the tag and could decide to hold out in an effort to force Baltimore’s hand. On the flip side, the Ravens could still trade him as well.

The franchise tag for linebackers is expected to be $16.27 million, according to Over The Cap. Baltimore currently has an estimated $37.74 million in available cap space, before using the franchise tag. It should take them down to just $21.47 million remaining, according to OTC.

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Ravens can now use franchise tag on OLB Matthew Judon, but will they?

The Baltimore Ravens can officially slap the franchise tag on OLB Matthew Judon to keep him from free agency, but will they?

After the NFL pushed back the start date and deadline for the franchise tag by two days, we’ve finally hit the glorious day when it’s open to all 32 teams to use. The Baltimore Ravens could be among the teams using the franchise tag with outside linebacker Matthew Judon set to hit free agency when it opens on March 18.

But the question now on everyone’s mind is will they?

The Ravens have until 4:00 p.m. ET on March 12 to make that decision but according to general manager Eric DeCosta, it’s an option that remains on the table. Baltimore has still been trying to work on a long-term contract extension in an effort to not have to use the franchise tag. But as the deadline creeps closer, the pressure to retain Judon will increase.

Simply put, the Ravens cannot allow Judon to enter the free-agent market. With an estimated $30.74 million in salary-cap space, according to Over The Cap, Baltimore sits around the bottom third of the league in available funds. Much like we saw last offseason with Za’Darius Smith and C.J. Mosley, if Judon hits the open market, he’s likely going to get a massive deal the Ravens can’t afford to match. And just as we’re liable to see this offseason, the compensatory pick formula might not be a good enough return on letting Judon leave.

Yet, the franchise tag comes with a hefty cost and salary-cap hit. At an estimated $16.27 million for 2020, according to OTC, it would put a huge dent in Baltimore’s ability to be active in free agency. It would take the Ravens down to around $14.98 million available, which would rank as the eighth-least amount of cap space if no other moves are made.

If Baltimore can’t work out a long-term contract with Judon before the deadline hits, the franchise tag buys them some much-needed additional time and leverage. As I’ve covered before, if DeCosta and the Ravens believe they won’t be able to lock up Judon on a manageable long-term deal, trading him might be in their best interest, which wouldn’t be nearly as easy to pull off without using the franchise tag on him first.

With no obvious answer to replace Judon if he leaves via free agency or trade, that’s not likely a scenario Baltimore wants to see play out. But if Judon’s less-than-cryptic tweet is any indication, it seems as though he and the team are still pretty far apart in negotiations.

While the team seems eager to work out a contract extension, every day we get closer to the deadline without a deal being signed, the more likely it becomes that Baltimore uses the franchise tag to their advantage. At this point, there appear to be just two options — contract extension or franchise tag.

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Decision on Matthew Judon looms large over Ravens this offseason

The Baltimore Ravens will need to decide whether to use the franchise tag on OLB Matthew Judon or let him go to free agency.

The Baltimore Ravens’ biggest and toughest decision this offseason revolves around outside linebacker Matthew Judon, who is set to hit free agency. Baltimore can’t afford to let another star pass rusher leave for a second consecutive season. But re-signing Judon would undoubtedly be costly, especially if he hits the open market, which will likely drive up his value.

One solution is the franchise tag, which becomes available for teams to use on Feb. 25 and has a deadline of March 10. Those two dates loom large over Baltimore’s free agency period and are among the most important days the Ravens will see this offseason. Should Baltimore use the tag on Judon?

Let’s look at why the Ravens would even contemplate using the franchise tag in the first place.

The franchise tag for linebackers is expected to be $16.3 million, according to Over The Cap. That would be a relative bargain over what Judon could actually get in free agency. While we’ve predicted $17 million per season, the reality is top pass rushers frequently exceed all expectations once teams with a ton of salary cap space get into bidding wars. Last offseason, both Za’Darius Smith and C.J. Mosley earned deals far greater than what anyone had predicted.

The franchise tag isn’t a perfect solution either. Once applied, the entire franchise tag figure comes out of Baltimore’s current salary cap total. In the case of Judon this offseason, the expected $16.3 million tag would more than cut the Ravens’ available cap space in half. They’d go from an estimated $30.74 million, according to Over The Cap, to just $14.98 million.

Also, using the franchise tag on Judon would severely limit what Baltimore could do in free agency. Granted, they could either trade Judon or re-sign him to a long-term deal to free up some of that used cap space, but they’d be gambling they could get something done in time to not miss out on pending free agents they’re interested in. There’s always the notion of Judon holding out and refusing to play on the franchise tag while keeping his contract demands above what Baltimore is comfortable paying, creating a stalemate.

There’s no way of knowing which decision is ultimately the right one. But the stakes that are riding on this decision are massive. Tying up that type of money could keep the Ravens from improving for the 2020 season. But not keeping their only real pass-rushing threat could actually make them worse if they can’t find help in free agency.

General manager Eric DeCosta has been on fire since taking over for Ozzie Newsome. He’s worked hard to re-sign key players before they hit free agency and has saved the Ravens quite a lot of trouble already. But his decision on Judon is one that will affect Baltimore’s entire offseason and could derail the team’s momentum if he makes the wrong choice.

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Trading OLB Matthew Judon might be in Ravens’ best interest

The Baltimore Ravens have a tough decision to make with Matthew Judon that could involve trading him instead of re-signing him

Baltimore Ravens outside linebacker Matthew Judon offers an interesting dilemma this offseason. He seems destined to hit the free-agent market where Baltimore simply won’t be able to keep up with other franchises that have a wealth of cap space to burn. If the Ravens don’t feel they’ll be able to lock up Judon to a long-term deal, trading him might be their best scenario here.

Judon is going to be one of the top options in free agency and will likely command serious money if allowed to hit the open market. Of course, the Ravens have the franchise tag available to keep Judon in town if they absolutely want, but it also has some serious ramifications on Baltimore’s salary cap while only locking him up for the 2020 season. It also leaves the option open for Judon to not sign his tender and hold out, or worse; sign the deal and still walk next offseason.

Though Baltimore has more cap space expected than in previous years, they still rank the bottom third of the league, according to Over The Cap. As of right now, 15 teams are expected to have more than $50 million available to spend this offseason, with two teams having more than $90 million in cap space. With just shy of $29 million expected to be available, according to OTC, the Ravens cannot keep up with the checkbooks of other teams if Judon gets serious interest in free agency.

Baltimore is staring down a potential repeat of last season where they lost key starters C.J. Mosley, Za’Darius Smith and Terrell Suggs for only compensatory picks in return. If the Ravens are planning on being buyers at all in free agency, they could just as easily wipe out the compensatory pick they’d acquire for Judon’s departure, which would be adding insult to injury here.

General manager Eric DeCosta might have learned from last offseason and could decide to go on the offensive here instead. As a top pending free-agent pass rusher, Judon is sure to draw interest from plenty of teams. But not every team will be interested in getting into a bidding war for his services or taking the chance they might not get him. Those teams might be far more eager to guarantee they can land Judon by trading with Baltimore and signing him to a long-term deal themselves.

From just last offseason until now, the NFL has had a bevy of trades to prove that star players can carry a lot of trade value.

The New York Jets traded defensive end Leonard Williams for a third-round pick in the 2020 NFL draft and a fifth/fourth-round pick in 2021. The Jacksonville Jaguars sent cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the Los Angeles Rams in return for two first-round picks and a fourth-rounder. The Kansas City Chiefs paid a second-round pick in the 2020 NFL draft for San Francisco 49ers defensive end Dee Ford. The Chiefs also sent defensive end Frank Clark and a third-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks in exchange for first-, second- and third-round picks.

By that history, it seems pretty likely Baltimore would net more than a third-round pick in exchange for Judon. If the Ravens can get a few teams interested, a first-round pick or more doesn’t seem to be out of the realm of possibility.

To play their options out and incentivize other teams to make a move, Baltimore could apply the franchise tag to Judon now. If Judon wants to have more control over where he goes, he could decide to not sign the tag unless he likes the destination. But that would also mean the Ravens could rescind the tag at any time before the deadline in May and still let Judon hit free agency like normal. It’s a win-win for Baltimore here given that re-signing Judon seems pretty unlikely at this point.

The Ravens still need help at pass rusher and one guy isn’t going to fix the problem, including just re-signing Judon. Baltimore would be better off picking up multiple second-tier players while using the draft to hopefully acquire an immediate game-changing talent. Trading Judon would mean the Ravens could spend their cap space on those types of free agents while giving them an extra early-round pick to either move up for a star prospect or take multiple shots at the position.

Of course, all this is dependent on other teams being interested in trading for Judon. But on the flip side, if Judon doesn’t draw much interest on the trade market, it might indicate his value as a free agent isn’t nearly as high as expected either and might push him to sign a long-term deal with Baltimore for cheaper.

There seems to be no downside to dangling Judon out as a trade option and a lot of serious upsides to trading him away.

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