Tag: nfl stats

Over/Under: Projecting Indianpolis Colts QB Philip Rivers’ stats

Projecting Philip Rivers’ 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Today we focus on Indianapolis Colts QB Philip Rivers’ projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Philip Rivers’ stats history

Rivers is one of the most consistently productive passers in the NFL. He hasn’t missed a start since he took the reins in 2006. He has had at least 4,200 passing yards in all but one season since 2009 and has had fewer than 4,300 only three times in those 11 seasons. He now will play his first season with the Colts after 16 with the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers.

Many will say his play has diminished, as threw 20 interceptions in 2019 and for only 23 touchdown passes, his lowest total since 2007.

That said, playing for coaches he knows – as some on the Indy staff used to coach for the Chargers – there is no reason to believe he will significantly decline in his production, especially considering his durability.

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Philip Rivers’ projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday, April 18 at 12:25 a.m. E.T.

Passing Yards: 4,199.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

At the time of this publishing, there is no line for Rivers’ total touchdown passes, so this is a very easy bet to make. Take the OVER and run with it without looking back. Colts QB Andrew Luck, who retired in the offseason, threw for more than 4,500 passing yards in 2018 with Frank Reich as head coach. Rivers is significantly better than Jacoby Brissett, who started 15 games in 2019. Rivers passing for at least 4,200 yards is all but a lock in 2020.

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Over/Under: Projecting New York Giants QB Daniel Jones’ stats

Projecting Daniel Jones’ 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Today we focus on New York Giants QB Daniel Jones‘ projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Daniel Jones’ stats history

Jones took over as the starter for Big Blue last season, pushing two-time Super Bowl champ and MVP Eli Manning out to pasture. This is Jones’ team now, and he should take a big step forward. In 13 games during his rookie season, Jones completed 284 of 459 passes (61.9 percent) for 3,027 yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions with an 87.7 QB Rating. He was sacked 38 times and fumbled 18 times while also running for 279 yards and a pair of scores.

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Daniel Jones’ projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list.  Lines last updated Friday, April 17 at 4:15 p.m. E.T.

Passing Yards: 3,799.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

Passing Touchdowns: 26.5 / OVER: +105 / UNDER: -125

It’s hard to envision Jones taking any sort of a step back in Season No. 2. If you project out his rookie numbers over a 16-game season, he goes OVER, or comes close to going OVER, in passing yards and passing TDs. If the offensive line can keep him upright, and his mobility helps that quite a bit, too, he should flirt with 4,000 passing yards and 30 TD passes. Remember, he has the dynamic RB Saquon Barkley to dump the ball off to, and he’ll get his share of receiving yardage and scores. When Barkley played a full season in 2018, he had 721 receiving yards and four touchdowns through the air. The G-Men brought back WR Golden Tate to buoy the receiving corps, WR Sterling Shepard is showing signs of improving and WR Darius Slayton could be a useful third receiver with some upside. The future looks bright for Jones. Bet the OVER on both props.

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Odell Beckham Jr. finished 2019 stronger than you might think

Despite the negativity, Odell Beckham Jr. still turned in a solid season.

The noise is everywhere. Odell Beckham Jr. had a terrible season and was a bitter disappointment in his first season in Cleveland. It’s inescapable, particularly from New York-based media that still loves to poke at their old bear from his days with the Giants.

Was it a great year for Beckham with the Browns? No, no it was not. But anytime a wide receiver can post 74 receptions and 1,035 yards, it’s still a pretty solid season. That’s what Beckham did, all the while battling a debilitating sports hernia injury that required surgery.

Here’s the reality: Beckham was still one of the more productive and targeted wideouts in the entire NFL.

It might not have seemed like it, and it wasn’t always as effective as either the Browns or Beckham would have liked, but Beckham got ample opportunities on first downs. The Browns offense did not shy away from featuring No. 13 to kick off drives or keep the chains moving.

Keep in mind Beckham is splitting those targets with Pro Bowler Jarvis Landry, a hindrance to targets and yards that none of the others here had to deal with. It got even better late in the year for Beckham.

The productivity perked up over the final eight weeks of the season. Beckham became more involved in the crunch time offense, specifically:

If Beckham can still do that while playing hurt and with no real prep time in a new offense and an unfamiliar quarterback, his future in Cleveland looks pretty bright in 2020 and beyond.

Charts and data courtesy of NFL Inside Edge

Kenny Golladay led the NFL in targets inside the opposing 10-yard line

Kenny Golladay led the NFL in targets inside the opposing 10-yard line

No player in the NFL caught more touchdown passes in 2019 than Kenny Golladay. The Lions wideout finished his third season with 11 TDs, earning him a receiving TD title and a Pro Bowl berth. That did not happen by accident. No player in the league had more targets on snaps from inside the opposing 10-yard line than Golladay.

The Lions offense force-fed their top wideout inside the red zone. That was especially true with the field shrunken even further, inside the opponent’s 10. Golladay saw a league-high 13 targets, two more than anyone else.

It worked pretty well, too. Golladay caught seven of the 13 pass attempts, scoring six TDs. Interestingly, he wasn’t targeted much when the ball was snapped between the 10 and 20. Golladay had just two targets in those situations, catching one but failing to score.

Chart courtesy NFL Inside Edge

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Lions barely ran the ball on 3rd down in 2019

On the bright side, the Lions were better than the league average on 3rd downs

There is a perception out there among Detroit Lions fans that the team never ran the ball on third downs in 2019. While that’s not technically true, the data backs up the belief that the Lions ran the ball on the critical third down less than almost every other team.

Only the Washington Redskins ran on a fewer percentage of third-down plays in 2019. Washington also had fewer total third downs on offense, so the Lions finished 31st in both run attempts on third down (30) and percentage of third-down runs (13.6).

Chart courtesy of NFL Inside Edge

Interestingly, the Lions were pretty good overall on third downs. Detroit ranked 14th in the NFL in converting at 40.9 percent. Bo Scarbrough picked up the first down on four of his five third-down carries. Kerryon Johnson converted 4-for-7, while J.D. McKissic was 2-for-4.

Given the QB issues after Matthew Stafford went down, the Lions probably should have run more often on third downs.

Browns CB Denzel Ward finished in top 5 of lowest completion percentage allowed

Ward is the only player to finish in the top five in each of the last two seasons in lowest completion percentage allowed

Denzel Ward was really good as a rookie, earning a Pro Bowl berth at cornerback in his debut season for the Browns. While Ward didn’t make the Pro Bowl in 2019, he was even better in coverage in his second season than he was in his heralded rookie campaign.

Ward allowed the fifth-lowest completion percentage among qualifying cornerbacks in 2019. Per NFL Inside Edge, just 36 of the 73 passes thrown Ward’s way were completed. Only four DBs bested his 49.3 percent allowed:

Ward also finished fifth in the league as a rookie, but he couldn’t quite crack the 50 percent mark in 2018. The No. 4 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft is the only player to finish in the top five in each of the last two seasons.

Ward faced 20 fewer targets in his second season in 93 fewer snaps. If he continues his torrid lockdown pace, expect those targets to dip even more in 2020.

Lions WRs were feast or famine on TD receptions in 2019

Kenny Golladay feasted while Danny Amendola starved in the end zone

The Detroit Lions had one receiver who feasted on the NFL in touchdown catches, but another who starved to make the end zone in 2019.

No NFL wide receiver had a higher percentage of receptions that resulted in touchdowns than Kenny Golladay. His 11 receiving TDs (on 65 receptions) led the NFL, too.

Only one receiver had a worse TD percentage among those with enough qualifying receptions (36) than Golladay’s teammate, Danny Amendola.

Here’s the kicker: Amendola scored his one touchdown reception on the season before Golladay caught any of his 11. It came in the Week 1 tie with Arizona, on the veteran slot receiver’s second catch of the season. Amendola caught 60 more without scoring on any of them.

Baker Mayfield, Browns offense really struggle from empty formation

Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense are the league’s worst when operating from an empty set

The Browns offense has perked up since the bye week, notably the play of Baker Mayfield at quarterback. But there is still ample room for improvement.

One of the big areas where Mayfield and the Browns can improve is from “empty” sets. That’s where Mayfield is alone in the backfield behind the line, with the running back lined up outside with the receivers. Per NFL Matchup from ESPN, Mayfield is the NFL’s worst quarterback when working in empty formations.

The Browns don’t do it frequently, but the results are not pretty. One interesting note is that the quarterbacks joining Mayfield in the bottom ranks are all typically supported by strong running games.

Lions defense no longer last in blitz percentage in 2019

The Chargers and Raiders now blitz less than the Lions

By now Lions fans know the familiar refrain.

“The Lions blitz less than any other NFL team.”

It’s a line that gets recited at least once in every Michigan-based sports radio show and clogs comments sections and message boards. However, it’s no longer accurate.

Over the last four games, the Lions have moved up in the blitz rate rankings. They’re still near the bottom of the league at just 10.9 percent of dropbacks, but that’s more than double the rate of the Los Angeles Chargers in the same timespan.

For the full season, the Lions blitz rate remains fairly constant at 10.9 percent. However, it dipped below 9 percent from Weeks 2-5. The NFL average for the season is 17.9 percent.

The 10.9 figure ranks ahead of both the Raiders and Chargers on the season through Week 12.

Note that blitz rate doesn’t necessarily correlate with being an effective defense. The 49ers have the NFL’s most effective pass rush and highest sack percentage despite being 29th in blitz percentage. Arizona is 4th in blitz percentage but 22nd in sack rate and has a lower sack rate than the Lions over the last four games.

All stats and tables are from NFL Inside Edge. 

Nick Chubb is the first NFL RB to reach 1,000 yards in 2019

Georgia football great Nick Chubb, of the Cleveland Browns, is the first NFL running back of 2019 to reach the 1,000 yard stat.

Georgia football great Nick Chubb went over the 1,000 yard marker on Thursday night as the Cleveland Browns took down the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Chubb toted the rock 27 times and racked up 92 yards, putting him at 1,011 yards on the season and making him the first NFL running back of 2019 to reach that milestone.

Currently, he leads Minnesota Vikings back Dalvin Cook – the older brother of Georgia’s James Cook – by 20 yards and is tied for fifth in yards per carry with an average of 5.0 (Lamar Jackson is first with an average of 6.6 YPC).

Last year, Chubb finished his rookie season with 996 yards on 192 carries. He briefly was sitting on the other side of 1,000 before his final few carries saw him lose yards, bringing him back down 996.

Through ten games this season, Chubb has already amassed his total carries from last season and is currently sitting at 201, the second highest in the NFL behind Cook’s 203.