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NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 8

NFL handicapper John Holler looks at the NFL Week 8 slate and tabs the 5 best NFL player props to cash in on.

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Whether it’s because of competing with the World Series this weekend or just coincidence, the NFL has all 32 teams playing — taking a 1-week break from bye weeks. That won’t be repeated until Week 15 when the bye weeks are over.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 8 player prop bets to cash in on among SportsbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

This week our picks include a hot quarterback not reaching an Over/Under number he has blown past more times than not, a pair of running backs showing why they’re the centerpieces of their respective offenses, an unheralded wide receiver continuing the roll he’s been on since mid-September and a big-name receiver burning one of the best pass defenses in the league for a touchdown.

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NFL Week 8 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Jaguars WR Christian Kirk OVER 54.5 receiving yards (-120)

– At Steelers, 1 p.m. (CBS)

The Steelers are allowing 260 passing yards a game and most of those yards are to wide receivers.

Kirk was overshadowed by teammate Calvin Ridley when he arrived in the offseason, but Kirk has maintained his role as the No. 1 wide receiver in the Jaguars’ offense.

Kirk has topped this number in 3 of the last 4 games and will get every opportunity to get 8 or more targets, which should be more than enough to hit the Over.

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Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins UNDER 252.5 passing yards (-115)

– At Packers, 1 p.m. (FOX)

In Minnesota’s first 2 wins, Cousins threw for less than 200 yards. The Vikings chose to have a balanced offense against the Panthers and Bears because they were never far behind and could keep mixing in the run to control game tempo and shorten the game.

In 6 games, the Packers have scored just 26 first-half points, giving their opponents the opportunity to get an early lead and control the momentum.

Cousins has blown past 300 yards in 4 games this season, but this one should be more of a ground-based game plan that will keep him short. Plus the number has swelled up 2 yards Saturday.

Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (+120)

– At 49ers, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

The 49ers have only allowed 7 touchdown passes in 7 games, but the Bengals are going to need to throw to win, and that means a lot of Chase.

The Bengals have been digging out of a hole after a 1-3 start and are starting to get their footing with Joe Burrow getting healthier and the anticipated return of Tee Higgins to limit constant double-teams of Chase.

The 49ers aren’t the best team to expect a big day from, but one of the 49ers’ few weaknesses is the ability to get beat over the top by opponents willing to take the risk.

Seattle Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker OVER 66.5 rushing yards (-120)

– Host Browns, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

The Browns have a strong run defense, but they’re facing a Seattle team that doesn’t abandon the run even when it falls behind.

Walker has topped this number in 3 of the last 4 games (and came with 4.5 yards in the one he didn’t) because of the consistent run volume he gets. In his last 5 games, Walker’s rushing attempt totals have been 17, 18, 17, 19 and 26.

The Browns won’t be pushovers, but if Walker has what has become an average week – 17 carries or more – it will be very difficult for Cleveland to hold him under this number.

Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler OVER 31.5 receiving yards (-120)

– Host Bears, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

The Chargers have been struggling to win games, and when that happens, teams often revert to what has made them successful in the past. In the case of the Chargers, that is making Ekeler a 2-way threat as a runner and receiver.

Having missed 3 games this season, Ekeler hasn’t been able to get in a groove quite yet, but a primetime game against one of the worst teams in the league is a way to get healthy in a hurry.

Getting Ekeler in space in the pass game should be a priority for quarterback Justin Herbert, and 5 receptions should be about the baseline given the shorthanded nature at the top of the Chargers’ receiving corps. All it will take is one splash play and he tops this number.

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NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 7

NFL handicapper John Holler looks at the NFL Week 7 slate and tabs the 5 best NFL player props to cash in on.

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Those looking to make prop bets will have a lot fewer options this week with 6 teams sharing a bye week.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 7 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

This week’s picks are a nice mix — a couple NFC West stars going Over, a pair of young stars hitting the Under and the most dynamic player in the league scoring a touchdown.

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NFL Week 7 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8:02 p.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (-115)

– At Eagles, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Hill is a bomb that is always ticking, ready to detonate. He has scored a touchdown in 5 of 6 games this season and is being fed the ball as much as any receiver in the league (42 receptions for 814 yards and 6 TDs).

The Eagles don’t change what they do based on their opponent, so there will be a lot of situations where Hill is single-covered and will get his chance to make big plays. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa isn’t afraid to take chances deep down the field, and Hill can strike at any moment.

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Giants RB Saquon Barkley UNDER 62.5 rushing yards (-115)

– Host Commanders, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Barkley is coming off his best week of the season, rushing 24 times for 93 yards against Buffalo. However, against the Commanders, it’s been a different story.

Washington has held Barkley under this number in 3 of the last 4 games because it commits 8 defenders to the box on every potential run down and makes the Giants try to beat it through the air.

As much as New York is struggling in the pass game, taking away Barkley is the primary defensive focus, and the Commanders have the players up front to get that job done.

49ers QB Brock Purdy UNDER 233.5 passing yards (-115)

– At Vikings, Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

Purdy has topped this number 3 times and been under it 3 times, but against the Vikings, this number seems a little too high.

Last week, the 49ers lost both RB Christian McCaffrey and WR Deebo Samuel to injury, and while it might appear that this would have a bigger impact on the run game, both CMC and Samuel have been key parts of the pass game.

Minnesota struggles against power run teams, and the 49ers could turn to RB Elijah Mitchell for a more classic running style. Mitchell is capable of having 20 carries and, if he does, Purdy will have difficulty topping this number.

Rams WR Cooper Kupp OVER 90.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Host Steelers, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

In 2021, I was picking Kupp to hit the Over week after week because oddsmakers can only make his number so high. That year, he had 92 or more receiving yards in all but 1 game, and late in the season, his O/U number topped 100 yards.

He’s 2 games back from injured reserve and has days of 118 and 148 yards. It looks like old times between Kupp and QB Matthew Stafford.

The Steelers’ defense is allowing 389 yards a game, and that is something the Rams will try to exploit by throwing to Kupp early and often — making this high number too low to pass up.

Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III OVER 75.5 rushing yards (-115)

– Host Cardinals, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

The Cardinals’ defense is getting pushed around both on the ground and through the air. Walker has 2 things going for him and both lend themselves to him surpassing this number.

First is his history — the Seahawks relied heavily on Walker to sweep the Cardinals last season. In 2 games, Walker carried 47 times for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns — posting days of 26-109-2 and 21-97-1. Against this division rival, pounding the ball on the ground equates to success.

Second is his usage — Walker has become one of the most consistent backs in the league based on carries. In his last 4 games, his rushing attempts per game have been 17, 18, 17 and 19. The combination of the expected rushes Walker will get and the strong track record makes this a pick to jump on.

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NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 6

NFL handicapper John Holler looks at the NFL Week 6 slate and tabs the 5 best NFL player props to cash in on.

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This week we mix things up. We take a pair of former teammates to both surpass their Over/Under numbers, a couple of highly-decorated players that will come up short of their projected numbers and a wide receiver scoring a touchdown to culminate a non-conference war of words.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 6 player prop bets to cash in on among SportsbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

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NFL Week 6 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:41 p.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Vikings RB Alexander Mattison OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-115)

– At Bears, 1 p.m. (FOX)

The loss of WR Justin Jefferson changes the dynamic in Minnesota in a huge way offensively. It has been several years that the Vikings haven’t had a top receiver like Jefferson or former Vikings Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen.

Moving forward, the Vikings may have to revert more to the run game, where the Vikings O-line is grading out strong in the run game. If Mattison gets 15 carries, it will be very difficult to keep him under this number.

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Saints WR Michael Thomas UNDER 49.5 receiving yards (-115)

– At Texans, 1 p.m. (FOX)

This may seem a little strange because Thomas has exceeded this number in every game this season. WR Chris Olave has been MIA in this offense the last 2 weeks so don’t be stunned to see QB Derek Carr focusing on him.

The Saints have 1 of the worst pass games in the league, and the Texans are showing signs of improvement. At this point of his career, Thomas has become a possession receiver who moves the chains much more than he dominates.

It’s hard to pick a guy who has beaten this number every week, but Thomas is likely going to need catch 5 passes to hit this number — and he hasn’t done that since Week 3.

Seahawks WR DK Metcalf scores a touchdown (+175)

– At Bengals, 1 p.m. (CBS)

The back-and-forth this week between the Bengals and Seahawks has been weird and unnecessary.

After WR Ja’Marr Chase made comments about always being open 2 weeks ago, Metcalf chose to step up the smack talk by claiming Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon would win his battle with Chase. That threw gas on a meaningless fire.

After interjecting himself into a beef that doesn’t involve him, it would seem that Metcalf is invested and, if he gets a shot in the red zone to win a 1-on-1 battle with a Bengals corner, it will help justify his crazy talk.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert UNDER 279.5 passing yards (-115)

– Host Cowboys, Monday 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

In his 2 home games this season, Herbert has thrown for just 229 and 167 yards. He did so against defenses with much less talent than the Cowboys.

The best part of this high number is that it doesn’t take into account that, despite being hammered by the 49ers last week, the Cowboys have a pretty good defense capable of limiting any pass game.

Include the return of RB Austin Ekeler, which helps the pass game but also brings back a running component that was largely missing while he was out. Every Ekeler run takes 30 seconds off the clock.

Another critical factor is that Herbert has a broken finger on his non-throwing hand and hasn’t played a full game with it (the Chargers are coming off their bye week). Any Cowboy defender who gets close to him will look to go after the injured hand. O/U numbers don’t take into account a player potentially coming out of the game if he re-injures an existing injury.

The only way he hits the Over is if Dallas gets ahead by double digits early and forces a shootout.

Bills WR Diggs OVER 83.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Host Giants, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Diggs hasn’t caught less than 6 passes in any game and is averaging 8 receptions. It doesn’t take long to hit a high number like this when you’re catching that many passes — Diggs has topped 100 yards in 4 of 5 games.

The Giants are a dumpster fire right now and aren’t going to be able to control the clock enough to negate QB Josh Allen and Diggs. The biggest concern on this bet is that the Giants defense can’t stop the run (they allow 5.3 yards a carry), and Buffalo could try to push that aspect of its offense.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that the Bills Mafia is used to seeing beat-downs. In their 2 home games this year, the Bills have won 38-10 and 48-20 — and a strong case can be made that the Raiders and Dolphins are better than the Giants right now.

When the Bills get a lead, they don’t take their foot off the gas — which should play well if you’re looking for a big day from Diggs.

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NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 5

NFL handicapper John Holler looks at the NFL Week 5 slate and tabs the 5 best NFL player props to cash in on.

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As options for prop bets get fewer with the arrival of byes, Week 5’s picks feature 5 road warriors — players going into hostile environments to find success.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 5 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

Our selections include a pair of AFC quarterbacks whose passing Over/Under numbers are too high, a veteran running back who has owned his Week 5 opponent, the NFL’s best tight end going against a sub-par defense and an emerging star looking to make some noise in Vegas.

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NFL Week 5 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8:29 p.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Texans QB C.J. Stroud UNDER 246.5 passing yards (-115)

– At Falcons, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Stroud has passed for at least 280 yards in each of his las3 games, but the Texans defense has struggled to stop the run. Against a team like Atlanta, that’s a problem. The Falcons are going to bring the 1-2 running back punch of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier early and often. If the Texans defense can’t bottle up the Falcons run game (few do), Atlanta will run 35-40 times. Stroud clearly has the ability to top this O/U number but may not get the opportunity.

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Titans RB Derrick Henry OVER 77.5 rushing yards (-115)

– At Colts, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Henry hasn’t been consistently dominant this season, but he hasn’t played the Colts yet. Few players have ever dominated a divisional matchup like Henry has the Colts. The Titans are 6-1 in the last 7 head-to-head meetings and Henry is as big a reason as any. He topped 100 rushing yards in 6 of those 7 games and rushed 26 or more times in 5 of them. The Colts have never been able to hold him down and if he has an average day, he will blow past this number.

Bengals QB Joe Burrow UNDER 248.5 passing yards (-115)

– At Cardinals, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Burrow has only surpassed this number once this season and his calf injury has resulted in his lowest yards per pass of his career. It’s so bad that his season average yards per pass (4.82) is lower than any single game he had in his first 3 seasons combined. With WR Tee Higgins a question mark, a bad situation gets worse. The Bengals are throwing more than 40 times a game and rushing less than 20 times. It’s a formula that doesn’t translate into wins, so look for the Bengals to emphasize the run and Burrow’s numbers to suffer.

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 77.5 receiving yards (-120)

– At Vikings, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Kelce is averaging 51.7 receiving yards a game, so this number might seem high. But these are the Vikings and a defense that can be had by a veteran quarterback like Patrick Mahomes. Minnesota has allowed three 100-yard receivers in the last 3 games and Kelce is due for the kind of game that has made him a Hall of Fame lock. This is the right opponent at the right time for Kelce to have a huge day.

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Packers WR Romeo Doubs OVER 47.5 receiving yards (-115)

– At Raiders, Monday 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

The Raiders are a mess and continue to find ways to lose. What makes Doubs an interesting candidate for this prime-time game is that he and QB Jordan Love have connected in a big way over the last 2 games. Doubs has been targeted 25 times in those games — more than double anyone else on the team — with 14 receptions for 168 yards and a touchdown. He only needs about half of that average to hit the Over here.

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NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 4

NFL handicapper John Holler looks at the NFL Week 4 slate and tabs the 5 best NFL player props to cash in on.

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Week 4 is the NFL’s final week before the annual bye week reduction of available teams arrives, so we have a full Sunday and Monday slate for plays. Our options for this week’s picks include a player in the London game, a couple of running backs who are underachieving, a revenge play and a Miami Dolphins player who missed out on last week’s 10-touchdown barrage.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 4 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

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NFL Week 4 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 6:49 a.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson OVER 25.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Vs. Jaguars (in London), 9:30 a.m. (ESPN+)

Robinson has been splitting time with RB Tyler Allgeier in the backfield but has been used extensively as a receiver. He leads the Falcons with 14 receptions and is at his most dangerous in space. He has topped this number in all 3 games this season and has yet to catch fewer than 4 passes in any of them. All he needs is to get one chance out in space and he can pick up the necessary yards with just 1 reception.

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Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (+160)

– At Bills, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Waddle missed out on the scoring barrage last week vs. the Denver Broncos but he returns for Buffalo Week 4. He owned the Bills secondary in 2 games last season, catching 7 passes for 216 yards — almost 31 yards a catch — and a touchdown in the game in Buffalo. He’s getting a good return on investment and only needs to get loose deep once to cash in.

Colts RB Zack Moss UNDER 66.5 rushing yards (-115)

– Host Rams, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Moss has put together a couple of huge games in his last 2 outings, but the Rams held Seattle Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker and Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon under this number and both of them are more dynamic runners than Moss.

The return of QB Anthony Richardson will likely cut back on Moss’ carries. He will likely need 15 attempts or more to surpass this number and that’s no guarantee against a Rams defense geared up to stop him and force Richardson to pass.

Steelers RB Najee Harris UNDER 57.5 rushing yards (-120)

– At Texans, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Harris has been disappointing all season. The only game he hit over this number was when he had 65 yards against the hapless Las Vegas Raiders last week – and needed a season-high 19 carries to get there. People scoff at the Texans, but their defense is solid. The Steelers haven’t given up on Harris — unlike a lot of fantasy managers — but RB Jaylen Warren‘s carry share has increased each week, which is a sign the Steelers coaching staff is losing confidence in Harris.

Panthers WR Adam Thielen OVER 4.5 receptions (-110)

– Host Vikings, 1 p.m. (FOX)

There’s always something to be said about a revenge play. Thielen spent his entire career with the Vikings before being released in the offseason, so he has plenty of incentive to make them know he still has value. In the last 2 games (against the New Orleans Saints and Seahawks) was targeted 23 times and caught 18 passes for 199 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He is a precise route-runner who gets separation and the 5 receptions he needs don’t have to be downfield throws. Carolina will look to get him involved early against his former team.

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NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 3

NFL handicapper John Holler looks at the NFL Week 3 slate and tabs the 5 best NFL player props to cash in on.

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There are some weeks when having home-field advantage plays a role in the outcome of games. When the fan base is energized, it often has a ripple effect on the field and the sidelines.

This week we pick 5 players who will be enjoying home cookin’ and looking to make some noise, including an unheralded running back to score a touchdown, a running back who should be able to surpass his rushing projection and 2 of the league’s most dynamic receivers having huge days. We also let recent history be our guide as to why an elite young quarterback won’t hit his number to beat.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 3 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

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NFL week 5 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 6:12 a.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill OVER 85.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Host Broncos, 1 p.m. (CBS)

This goes against Hill’s career history because nobody held him down as a member of the Chiefs more than the Broncos. But this Miami offense finds ways to get Hill open in space, especially when he’s coming off a sub-par game.

Last season, Hill was held under 75 yards in 5 games before QB Tua Tagovailoa went down for the 2nd time in Week 16. In the games after Hill was limited, he blew up — posting receiving days of 160, 177, 188, 85 and 106 yards. Last week he was limited to 40 receiving yards.

Look for a big bounce-back game here against the Broncos.

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Commanders RB Brian Robinson SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (+120)

– Host Bills, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Sometimes you look for players who appear to be the only show in town. Robinson has become that in the Commanders backfield.

So far this season, Robinson has 37 carries and 2 touchdowns. Washington’s other running backs have combined for just 8 carries. The Bills defense isn’t a pushover, but it can be had on the ground.

Plus, when the Commanders get close to the end zone, it’s Robinson Time.

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson OVER 101.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Host Chargers, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Jefferson has become to Minnesota’s offense what WR Cooper Kupp was to the Rams offense a couple of years ago. Kupp strung together so many impressive games that his Over/Under prop number had to go above 100 yards just to get people to bet the Under. Jefferson has taken over that mantle.

In his first 2 games, Jefferson has hit 150 receiving yards in both. Those came against much better defenses (the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles) than the Chargers have. The Vikings find ways to target Jefferson even when a defense attempts to bracket him with double coverage.

Until somebody finds a way to take Jefferson away from the Vikings offense, he can be expected to catch 8 or more passes a game consistently, which makes getting 102 yards a lot easier.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence UNDER 245.5 passing yards (-115)

– Host Texans, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Many are of the belief that the Texans are a dismal team because their record has been brutal ever since the QB Deshaun Watson era derailed. However, the Texans defense is quietly getting the job done and showing improvement, but Lawrence already knows this.

Lawrence has been held to 210 passing yards or less in 2 of this last three meetings with the Texans and Houston has allowed just 398 passing yards in its first two games.

Lawrence is clearly capable of hitting over this number, but the Texans haven’t shown any reason to expect it.

Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III OVER 65.5 rushing yards (-115)

– Host Panthers, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

Walker hasn’t been lighting up the league so far this season, but he has 29 of Seattle’s 39 running back carries this season.

The Panthers have allowed 264 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns through 2 games and have struggled to force teams to go away from the run. Opponents are averaging 30 carries a game and, under the current ratio, Walker should get about 20 of those. If he does, it will be hard to keep him below this number.

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NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 2

NFL handicapper John Holler looks at the NFL Week 2 slate and tabs the 5 best NFL player props to cash in on.

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With 1 week of games behind us, the new landscape of the NFL in 2023 is starting to take shape. Teams that struggled are looking to avoid bad things becoming a trend.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 2 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

This week, we’re leaning on the Over with some of the games most dynamic players, along with a veteran scoring a touchdown against a division rival he’s had great success with and one of the most prolific pass-catchers in the league having fewer opportunities than usual.

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NFL Week 2 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:42 p.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (+125)

– At Rams, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Kittle hasn’t historically been a big TD scorer, but he has been against the Rams. He has scored touchdowns in 5 of his last 7 games against them and has a TD in the last 2 games at Los Angeles.

The 49ers offense came out strong in Week 1 — 30-7 win at Pittsburgh — and when San Francisco gets close to the goal line, Kittle is typically the No. 1 receiving option.

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Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson OVER 55.5 rushing yards (-115)

– Host Packers, 1 p.m. (FOX).

Robinson topped this number in Week 1 despite having just 10 carries (for 56 yards). With the expectation that the rookie out of Texas is going to be a primary rushing/receiving threat for the Falcons out of the backfield, there’s no reason to think his rushing attempts will go down.

The Falcons have built an offense around running 30 or more times a game. If Robinson gets half of that workload, this O/U is well too low.

Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown UNDER 6.5 receptions (-120)

– Host Seahawks, 1 p.m. (FOX).

St. Brown has been a reception machine in Detroit, but it was primarily because the Lions didn’t have a lot of complementary weapons. That has changed considerably as alternate options were selected in the draft and added in free agency.

With a requirement of 7 receptions, that is a lot to ask of any receiver — even one as prolific as St. Brown.

Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs OVER 75.5 receiving yards (-120)

– Host Raiders, 1 p.m. (CBS).

Diggs is the primary option in the passing game every week. Despite losing to the Jets in Week 1, Diggs caught 10 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown.

The Jets secondary is considerably better than the Raiders and Buffalo needs a win to get their season back on track. Typically, when it comes to the Bills ending a losing skid, Diggs is the primary focus of the pass offense and likely will be critical to the play calling Sunday.

Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb (OVER) 79.5 rushing yards (-115)

– At Steelers, Monday 8:15 p.m. (ABC)

Chubb has been one of the most dominant backs in the league in terms of carries per game. With Kareem Hunt no longer in the picture to snipe carries away from him, Chubb is likely going to a player with 20 or more carries per game.

Chubb rushed 35 times for 190 yards in 2 games vs. the Steelers last season. He rushed 18 times for 106 yards against a stout Bengals defense in last week’s opening win. If he gets that same number of carries this week, it will be very difficult to keep him under this number.

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NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 1

NFL handicapper John Holler looks at the NFL Week 1 slate and tabs the 5 best NFL player props to cash in on.

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Throughout the NFL season, bettors are able to take fantasy football hunches and make them pay off in the form of player prop bets.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 1 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

For Week 1, we select 3 of the biggest stars in the league doing what they do best, a rookie who will likely struggle in his debut and one of the league’s best touchdown scorers getting a solid rate of return to hit the end zone again.

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NFL Week 1 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:14 a.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts OVER 240.5 passing yards (-115)

– At Patriots, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

There is no questioning that Bill Belichick is one of the greatest defensive minds in the history of the NFL, but he has a 25-26 record since the departure of Tom Brady. That’s just below a .500 record against every team and he doesn’t have to face a stacked offense like Philadelphia’s in most of them.

There is a lot of buzz around Hurts as a favorite to win the MVP award this season. With a slew of receiving weapons, including A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert, it will only take a couple of big splash plays and good ball distribution to surpass this number.

Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson UNDER 192.5 passing yards (-115)

– Host Jaguars, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Richardson is a member of the Class of 2023 1st-round quarterbacks all making their debuts Sunday. There is a sentiment that without RB Jonathan Taylor, who will miss at least the first 4 games on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list, Richardson will be passing more. He may throw more passes, but it might lead to less success.

Typically when a team faces the Colts, Taylor is the first player the defense has to concern itself with. Without the threat of Taylor, the Jags defense can focus on bringing pressure on Richardson and forcing a lot of short passes.

Richardson may have to complete 20 or more passes to get over this number and that may be asking too much in an NFL debut.

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New Orleans Saints RB Jamaal Williams SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (+150)

– Host Titans, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Williams has always been a strong rusher near the goal line, but he took it to new heights last year with Detroit — scoring 17 touchdowns on the ground and most of them from inside the 5-yard line.

The Saints have always had a designated goal-line runner, whether it was RB Mark Ingram or QB Taysom Hill, but they signed Williams in free agency to be the mauling running back that finishes drives in close.

With RB Alvin Kamara serving a 3-game suspension, Williams is going to see the ball a lot and will likely get at least 1 or 2 cracks at hitting the goal line from in close.

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Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson OVER 88.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Host Buccaneers, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Jefferson was on pace to set a new single-season receiving yardage record last season before having a couple of low-production games to close out the regular season — finishing with 1,809 yards.

It’s never easy to average 106 yards, but it was because he was targeted as much as any player in the league. But it’s easier when you average 7.5 catches a game.

When the Vikings released 4-time Pro Bowl RB Dalvin Cook, it sent a message that the run-first Vikings of the past decade-plus were officially dead. QB Kirk Cousins could be among the league leaders in passing attempts and yards.

Although he has other targets in TE T.J. Hockenson, WR K.J. Osborn and rookie WR Jordan Addison, Jefferson is Cousins’ primary target and will get his share of opportunities to put up big numbers.

Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill OVER 80.5 receiving yards (-115)

– At Chargers, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Hill is one of the more enjoyable players to bet the Over on because he is so explosive that he may only need 3 or 4 receptions to hit this number.

The Chargers and Dolphins have proved that offenses can succeed by virtually ignoring the run. The Dolphins had the 4th-ranked pass offense last season, led by 1,710 yards from Hill. The Chargers had the 3rd-rated pass offense.

Both teams are going to be looking to take downfield chances, and airing the ball out and Hill’s experience playing against the Chargers while in the same division will pay dividends.

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NFL player props: 5 best bets for Conference Championships

NFL expert John Holler looks at the Conference Championships slate and tabs the 5 best NFL player props to cash in on.

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The conference title games pit the 2 top seeds against the 2 hottest teams in the league as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Cincinnati Bengals (winners of 10 straight games) in the AFC and the Philadelphia Eagles host the San Francisco 49ers (winners of 12 straight) i the NFC.

For this week’s bets, we’re going RB-heavy as both runners and receivers, expecting a Pro Bowl QB not to meet his Over/Under number and an elite receiver finding the end zone.

Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Conference Championship Games player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

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NFL Conference Championship Games prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:02 a.m. ET. All games ET.

Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase SCORES A TD (+100)

– At Chiefs, 6:30 p.m. (CBS)

The Chiefs defense hasn’t found an answer for Chase, who has run roughshod over them in their 3 meetings the past 2 seasons.

Chase has caught 24 passes for 417 yards and 4 Dsin those 3 games. Because of Cincinnati’s other weapons, the Chiefs can’t simply double Chase to take him away. Kansas City’s primary weakness as a team is the back end of its defense and few players are capable of doing more damage than Chase, both in volume of receptions and getting into the end zone.

Even money for 1 of the most dangerous receivers in the league going up against a pass defense that gets burned too often by Joe Burrow? Yes, please.

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Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts UNDER 250.5 passing yards (-115)

– Host 49ers, 3 p.m. (FOX)

In the 2 games he has played since returning from injury (both against the New York Giants), Hurts hasn’t been lighting people up through the air. His passing yardage totals have been 229 and 154.

The strength of the Philadelphia offense is its balance – it wants to run as often as it throws. The result is that Hurts makes big throws, but doesn’t get the kind of volume passing necessary to blow past 250 passing yards against a tough 49ers defense. He would have to be way behind and 1-dimensional and I don’t see that happening barring catastrophic turnovers.

This game is going to be a battle of clock control and field position. Both teams are going to look to move the chains and string together 10- or 12-play drives to get points. Both teams have offensive lines geared to open run lanes and eat up 40 seconds every time they do. Hurts has the ability to top this number, but with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, neither QB will be taking big risks downfield. That lends itself to throwing for less than 250 yards.

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Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-115)

– At Chiefs, 6:30 p.m. (CBS)

The Bengals aren’t the most consistent team when it comes to running the ball, but last week on the road in Buffalo, Mixon ran 20 times for 105 yards and a TD. Last year in the playoffs when the Bengals needed to win on the road against the Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl, Mixon ran 21 times for 88 yards.

What has emerged with Mixon’s role in the offense is until a team consistently shuts him down or 3 or 4 carries in a row, the Bengals keep calling his number.

He will likely need 15 carries to surpass his O/U number, but the Bengals have tended to lean on him on the road when they need a win and he has delivered against the top teams in the AFC.

San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey OVER 31.5 receiving yards (-115)

– At Eagles, 3 p.m. (FOX)

This is calling a home run shot or something close to it. McCaffrey hasn’t topped this week’s O/U in the last 4 games, but neither the Seattle Seahawks nor Dallas Cowboys blitz nearly as much as the Eagles do, which plays into McCaffrey’s hands.

This isn’t a lot of yards needed to pick up, but what the 49ers play-callers will be looking at are to design 2 or 3 plays with the intention of taking advantage of the Eagles’ defensive aggression. Designed screen passes to a wide open running back stop that in a hurry.

All it takes is 1 or 2 completed planned screens called to get McCaffrey in space and he could hit this number with 1 reception. His O/U for receptions is 4.5. If he gets 5 catches (or 4), it will be difficult not to surpass this number.

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 78.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Host Bengals, Sunday 6:30 p.m. ET.

This pick is predicated by 2 things – Patrick Mahomes not being 100 percent healthy (so he won’t be running) and Kelce’s incredible streak of postseason success.

Over the last 3 years, the Chiefs have played 7 postseason games. Kelce has caught 65 passes for 757 yards and 8 YDs – an average of 9 catches for 108 yards and a TD per game. In that 7-game span, he has never had less than 95 receiving yards in any of them.

For those concerned that his production might be hindered if Mahomes isn’t at full health, he wasn’t last week for most of the game and Kelce was targeted 17 times, catching 14 passes for 98 yards and 2 TDs.

If he merely comes close to his playoff average for receptions, Kelce dances his way well past this O/U number.

More NFL Championship Games coverage

NFC: Eagles at 49ers picks and predictions
AFC: Bengals at Chiefs picks and predicitons

Parlay: Let’s make some money | SBW staff picks

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NFL player props: 5 best bets for Divisional Round Games

NFL expert John Holler looks at the NFL Divisional Round slate and tabs the 5 best NFL player props to cash in on.

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The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs has 4 intriguing matchups with 6 legitimate Super Bowl contenders featuring lots of star players.

For this week, we pick one of the hottest touchdown scorers in the league to hit the end zone again, a Hall of Fame QB with an Over that is little too high and a running back and a pair of wide receivers that history says should surpass their respective O/U numbers

Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Divisional Round player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

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NFL Divisional Round prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1:10 p.m. ET. All games ET.

San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle SCORES A TD (+125)

– Host Dallas Cowboys, Sunday 6:30 p.m. (FOX).

QB Brock Purdy has locked in on Kittle as his primary TD target since taking over as the 49ers starter. In the last 5 games, Purdy has thrown 12 TDs – 7 to Kittle and 5 to everyone else combined.

The Cowboys are known for taking chances defensively and leaving their back 7 to take receivers 1-on-1 in coverage. If Kittle gets locked into a footrace with someone like LB Leighton Vander Esch, it will be a mismatch that will result in points being scored.

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Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 310.5 passing yards (-115)

– Host Jacksonville Jaguars, Saturday 4:30 p.m. (NBC).

Mahomes is 1 of the players I hate taking the Under against because he is so productive and explosive, and he topped this number in 10 of 17 regular-season games this season.

However, these are the playoffs and it’s been a different story when Mahomes is trying to win and not take unnecessary risks that can allow an opponent to stay within striking distance.

In 11 postseason starts, Mahomes has topped this high point just 4 times. This will be his 1st playoffs without WR Tyreek Hill, who played a big role in all 4 games when Mahomes did throw for more than 310 yards.

I wouldn’t blame anyone who takes the Over, but the Chiefs should be able to handle their business early enough that the run game will be used to drain the clock in the 2nd half instead of piling on.

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Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon OVER 47.5 rushing yards (-115)

– At Buffalo Bills, Sunday 3 p.m. (CBS).

This is a low number primarily because Mixon hasn’t topped this number in 4 of his last 6 games. But, the reason has been a lack of carries, not effectiveness.

In the 4 games he hasn’t hit 49-plus rushing yards, he has had 11 or fewer carries. With all of the passing that is expected in this game, it may well be the team that runs more effectively that comes away with the win.

The Bengals offensive line is a mess due to injuries, but that will likely impact the pass more than the run. Mixon may need to get close to 15 carries to top this point, but 1 splash run will make it a lot easier as the game wears on.

In the Bengals’ run to the Super Bowl last season, Mixon averaged 17 carries a game. If he gets anywhere close to that, he blows by this point.

Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown OVER 71.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Host New York Giants, Saturday 8:15 p.m. (FOX).

Perhaps no player has made a bigger impact on a new team than what Brown has brought to the Eagles. In his last 6 games, he has 95 or more receiving yards in 5 of them and had 70 receiving yards in the other.

What has made Brown so dangerous down the stretch has been his yards per catch. Over the last 6 games, he has caught 35 passes for 665 yards – a 19-yard average. This includes 8 catches for 165 yards in 2 games against the Giants – an average of 20.6 yards per reception.

At his current rate, Brown will only need 4 receptions to surpass this number and he has caught at least 4 passes in each of his last 8 games.

Bills WR Stefon Diggs OVER 79.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Host Bengals, Sunday 3 p.m. ET (CBS).

When the Bills need critical catches and yardage, QB Josh Allen always looks to Diggs first. While the receiver’s numbers in the second half of the season weren’t what we’ve become accustomed to seeing, when there is a lot at stake, he and Allen have been killers.

In Week 18 when the Bills needed a win to assure that they would be at home for this game, Diggs caught 7 passes for 104 yards and a TD. Nobody else on the team had more than 3 catches or 40 receiving yards.

When the Bills needed to get through Miami to advance in the playoffs, Diggs caught 7 passes for 114 yards.

There aren’t many No. 1 receivers that get the volume of targets and receptions as Diggs. He’s in line to be targeted more than 10 times and catch 6 or 7 passes. If he does that, this number will be very difficult for Diggs not to get past.

More NFL Divisional Round coverage

Tipico odds: Lines and totals for all 4 games
Parlay: Let’s make some money | SportsbookWire staff picks

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