San Francisco (10-2) heads to New Orleans (10-2) to take on the Saints in what could be a potential preview of the NFC Championship game. The 49ers lead the all-time series 48-26-2, but it was a three-touchdown performance from Drew Brees that gave the Saints a 41-23 victory in the last matchup between these two teams back in 2016.
The 49ers have just two losses this season. The first came vs. Seahawks in a 20-17 overtime thriller. The other came against the red hot Ravens in a 20-17 defeat due to a game-winning field goal by Justin Tucker as time expired. Both have been heartbreakers. Against Baltimore, Jimmy Garropolo kept his cool and went 15-for-21 with 165 yards and one touchdown even in the rainy, windy conditions. Raheem Mostert racked up 146 yards and one score on 19 carries. The offense is second in rushing in the NFL with an average of 148 YPG. That’s the identity of this team, a physical brand of football on both sides of the ball.
Defensively, San Francisco is ranked first in total defense (250.9 YPG) and first in pass defense (134.2 YPG). Last weekend against the Ravens, the 49ers held Baltimore to under 300 total yards and Lamar Jackson to 105 yards and one touchdown passing. Fred Warner led the way with 11 tackles. Dre Greenshaw chipped in eight more and DeForest Buckner racked up six tackles and the lone sack of the game.
It wasn’t a pretty performance offensively, but the Saints won their third consecutive game in a row with a 26-18 defeat over NFC South foe Atlanta on the road. Drew Brees completed 18 of 34 passes for 184 yards and one touchdown. The only game he threw for fewer yards this season was Week 2 when he left due to injury. Michael Thomas was held to just six catches for 48 yards by the Falcons defense and Alvin Kamara carried the ball 11 times for 61 yards. Can Brees and Thomas bounce back against a stingy San Francisco defense? They will need to be efficient on third down as well, converting two out of 10 attempts against the Falcons.
Ferocious. That’s how the Saint’ defense played against Atlanta. The unit recorded nine sacks, two interceptions and had a total of three turnovers. Cameron Jordan accounted for six tackles and four of those sacks to bring his season total to 13.5, second-best in the NFL. Craig Robertson added seven tackles and one sack, while Marcus Davenport picked up four tackles and two sacks. New Orleans is third in rushing defense with opponents averaging 88.6 YPG. Its ability to slow down the 49ers rushing attack will be crucial to the team’s success.
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The Rams need the Seahawks to win on Monday night in order to improve their playoff odds.
The 2019 season is winding down with 30 teams only having four games remaining on their schedules. The Seahawks and Vikings will join that group after Monday night’s showdown, which has huge postseason implications – especially for the Rams.
At 9-2, the Seahawks are currently the No. 5 seed in the NFC. The Vikings are close behind, sitting at 8-3. The Seahawks can overtake the 49ers for the division lead with a win on Monday night, while Minnesota can move up to the No. 5 seed by knocking off Seattle.
The Rams are in the near distance at 7-5, needing some help in order to make the playoffs. Monday’s game will go a long way toward determining the Rams’ postseason chances, but before we get into who they should root for, let’s take a look at the current playoff picture.
West: 49ers (10-2)
South: Saints (10-2)
North: Packers (9-3)
East: Cowboys (6-6)
Wild card: Seahawks (9-2)
Wild card: Vikings (8-3)
In the hunt
Rams (7-5)
Bears (6-6)
As difficult as it is for the Rams and their fans to root for a division rival, it’s absolutely necessary on Monday night. Los Angeles needs the Seahawks to beat the Vikings to improve their playoff odds.
According to the New York Times’ playoff machine, the Rams currently have a 20% chance to make the postseason. If the Seahawks win tonight, that number will increase to 26% – not a significant amount, of course, but any improvement is a plus.
However, if the Vikings win, the Rams’ odds will decrease to just 13%. The reason is obvious, too.
With a win, Minnesota will push two games clear of the Rams for the sixth wild-card spot. It’ll drop the Seahawks back to 9-3, too, but the Rams have already lost to the Seahawks and face them next week. If the Vikings lose, they’ll only be one game ahead of Los Angeles, which isn’t an insurmountable deficit to overcome.
In that scenario, the Rams would need to win in Week 14 against the Seahawks and the Vikings would need to lose to Detroit in order for Los Angeles to slide into the No. 6 seed. Again, something that isn’t impossible.
But it all starts with the Vikings losing tonight. If they win, the Rams would need to beat the Seahawks and Cowboys, and Minnesota would need to lose to the Lions and Chargers. Week 16 and 17 would then be in the Rams’ hands, but they’d much prefer to take control of the sixth seed next week.
The New Orleans Saints can claim their place in the NFL playoff picture with a win over the Atlanta Falcons, which would win the NFC South.
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There’s going to be a lot on the line when the New Orleans Saints visit the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football. With a win, the Saints can clinch their third straight NFC South crown; with a loss, it will take some help for them to exit Week 13 with a division title, but it’s still possible.
Beyond bragging rights, winning the NFC South gives the Saints a guaranteed spot in the playoffs. They’re the only team that can earn its place in the postseason tournament with a win this week, though the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots can each punch their ticket if a few other things go their way.
Simply beating the Falcons on Thanksgiving night will be enough for New Orleans. But if they come up short, a loss or tie by the Carolina Panthers (who play the Washington Redskins on Sunday) would allow the Saints to back into a division win.
How the 49ers can clinch a playoff berth
Things are more complicated for San Francisco. They’re one of the two hottest teams in the NFL right now, and they have to compete with the other candidate (the Baltimore Ravens) on the road on Sunday. If the 49ers beat or tie with Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, and the Ravens they’ll have to check into the Los Angeles Rams’ road game with the Arizona Cardinals. If San Francisco wins or ties, it’ll take a Rams tie or loss to get them into the playoffs this week.
How the Patriots can clinch the playoff berth
Meanwhile in the AFC, New England has to bag a road win against this week’s opponent: Deshaun Watson and the cornered Houston Texans. If they can do that, all eyes turn to the Pittsburgh Steelers (who are hosting the Cleveland Browns), Oakland Raiders (visiting the Kansas City Chiefs), and Indianapolis Colts (versus the Tennessee Titans). If either of those two first two teams lose and the Patriots win, New England clinches a playoff berth.
However, if the Patriots tie with the Texans, it’ll take one of several different combinations to punch their ticket. It’s complicated, so we’ve broken each scenario down below:
Raiders loss and Steelers loss
Raiders loss and Colts loss
Steelers loss and Colts loss
So those are somewhat long odds. As long as the Saints can handle their business against Atlanta on Thursday, they and their fans can spend the long holiday weekend kicked back and relaxed, watching lesser teams fight and scrap their way into the postseason.
The 49ers’ spots atop the NFC West and NFC are in danger Sunday.
Despite a trio of close games the last three weeks, including their only loss of the year, the 49ers are still in prime position to win the NFC West and secure a first-round bye in the postseason.
The Seahawks are at Philadelphia on Sunday, and they hold the tiebreaker over the 49ers because they won their head-to-head matchup. An Eagles win would be huge for San Francisco because it would allow them to stay on top of the NFC West no matter the result of their game vs. the Packers.
Los Angeles became a little bit of an afterthought with their struggles through the early portion of the year, but they’re not out of it at 6-4. That’s a team that went to the Super Bowl last season and is loaded with talent. Any prolonged stumble by the 49ers, combined with a winning streak for the . Rams, immediately puts the Rams back in the picture to win the division for the second year in a row.
The 49ers’ standing atop the NFC playoff picture is just as shaky as it is in the division. While San Francisco’s spent effectively the entire season in first place, they find themselves in a precarious position despite a 9-1 record.
San Francisco and Green Bay will face off and shake up the top of the NFC. New Orleans hosts the struggling Panthers, while the Seahawks visit the Eagles and the Vikings take their bye week.
If Seattle wins and the 49ers lose, San Francisco would drop to the No. 5 seed. The Packers would jump to No. 1, the Seahawks would jump to No. 2, and the Saints would remain in third whether they win or lose.
An Eagles win and Cowboys loss would put them in a tie for the No. 4 seed, but Dallas owns the tiebreaker. It would also drop the Seahawks to 8-3 and into a tie with the Vikings, at which point Minnesota would jump to No. 5 and drop Seattle to No. 6.
Most NFL teams have six weeks left in the NFL season (excluding the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, who play on Monday night). With just a handful of games left, the AFC’s hunt for a first-round bye may not be all that competitive. But the wild card should be fierce, even if it’s likely to boast teams with worse records (and worse talent) than the hunt happening in the NFC, which is intensely competitive from top to bottom. The NFC West, in particular, has been fun to watch. The division probably boasts three playoff-worthy teams. (Yes, even the struggling Los Angeles Rams are OK, even if they’re not quite as good as last season.)
Here’s a look at the current NFL playoff picture, with a focus on who or what matters most to each team after Week 11.
1. New England Patriots (9-1)
Week 12: vs. Dallas
Who matters most: Cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
The Patriots (best?) defensive player has allowed Bill Belichick tremendous schematic flexibility for the last two seasons. But the Patriots coach has flexed it more than ever in this 2019 season, with an Amoeba defense that has given fits to everyone but Lamar Jackson. Even Tom Brady admitted on Monday morning that the Patriots defense is the strength of the team — and it shows. Gilmore is the most important player on that defense. He’s a shutdown corner, who can erase a top receiver. In Week 11, he took Zach Ertz on third downs, and the Eagles went 3 of 13 on third-down conversions.
2. Baltimore Ravens (8-2)
Week 12: at L.A. Rams
What matters most: Lamar Jackson’s arm.
Much has been made of Jackson’s speed. But those who think that he can’t pass aren’t watching the games. And those who think he hasn’t been passing as well in recent weeks, again, aren’t watching the games. He did struggle against the Seattle Seahawks. But Jackson has been brilliant with a small sample size, in an era where most quarterbacks make their money off volume. Jackson doesn’t need to “get into a rhythm.” With a flick of the wrist, Jackson can deliver a beauty, even on a drive when the Ravens run the ball four times and pass just twice.
His keg-stand celebration is all that matters — ever. Nelson served as a fullback, and got a touchdown in Week 11 (and let’s just ignore the fact that touchdown didn’t end up counting). The Colts offensive line has been stellar in 2019. Nelson is the spirit animal of that line: tough, athletic, versatile. His unspoken chemistry with his teammates (demonstrated during the keg stand) is noteworthy.
Week 12: (still have MNF to play, then) vs. Raiders
What matters most: An improved secondary.
At this time last season, Kansas City’s most glaring flaw was their secondary. They couldn’t defend the 2019 version of Jared Goff, let alone the 2018 version. But this season, Kansas City boasts the ninth-best passing defense (221.4 yards passing yards allowed per game). We’ve seen huge steps forward with strong play from defensive backs Charvarius Ward, Juan Thornhill, Tyrann Mathieu and Bashaud Breeland. Mahomes hasn’t had to throw for over 500 yards per game, because the Chiefs aren’t allowing over 500 passing yards per game.
5. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
Week 12: vs. Denver
What matters most: Their schedule.
The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets have taken turns looking like the worst team in the NFL. And the Cincinnati Bengals are right there with them. So it helps that the Bills have five games against those three putrid teams. Because of that easy schedule, they are probably the least talked-about playoff team, except for when people say, “Yeah but they probably actually stink.” The truth is that they’ll probably make the playoffs because of that schedule. We’ll see once/if they’re in the postseason whether they deserve to be there.
6. Houston Texans (6-4)
Next up: vs. Indianapolis
What matters most: The Raiders/Steelers/Titans/Browns.
The Ravens embarrassed Houston, which sure seems like it isn’t a playoff-caliber squad. So if the Texans aren’t going to take their postseason fate into their own hands, they’ll have to watch what else happens at the bottom end of the AFC’s playoff hunt.
Still chasing
Oakland Raiders (6-4): I’ll tell you what man, Jon Gruden can coach. Knock on wood if you’re with me.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5): A loss to the Browns showed they’re still not a playoff-worthy team — yet. There’s still time for improvement.
1. San Francisco 49ers (9-1)
Week 12: vs. Green Bay
Who matters most: Kyle Shanahan.
He is low-key looking like Sean McVay did last season. Maybe Shanahan doesn’t list off every player on the opponents roster (which wasn’t that cool anyway). Maybe Shanahan doesn’t need a get-back coach (which, again, wasn’t that cool anyway). But Shanahan’s offensive innovation has been superb, with an unstoppable running game that band-aids Jimmy Garoppolo’s shortcomings. (The defense is also really, really good.)
2. Green Bay Packers (8-2)
Week 12: at San Francisco
What matters most: This photo of a bro-hug.
That is all.
Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images
3. New Orleans Saints (8-2)
Week 12: vs. Carolina
Who matters most: Sean Payton.
He is to Bill Belichick what Peyton Manning was to Tom Brady. Payton has long been deserving of the Head Coach of the Year award. He’s supremely talented. But Belichick always gets the media’s argument for he’s-won-it-but-still-deserves-it angle. And then someone else wins it. Payton’s Saints have just two losses despite losing Drew Brees for five games. He’s good at this, folks. We give him plenty of credit, but maybe still not enough.
4. Dallas Cowboys (6-4)
Week 12: at New England
What matters most: Receiver Randall Cobb’s back-to-back 100 yard games.
In the larger playoff picture, Cobb doesn’t matter much. What matters is that the Cowboys passing offense is productive enough to support three productive receivers. Even in a game when Amari Cooper (3 catches, 38 yards) struggled to produce in Week 11, Cobb and Michael Gallup stepped up. The Cowboys offense has proven it can keep up with just about any offense in the NFL.
5. Seattle Seahawks (8-2)
Week 12: at Philadelphia
Who matters most: Russell Wilson.
Wilson has shown in past years he needs no support, but this season, the Seahawks may be overusing Wilson’s supporting cast at running back. Pete Carroll seems to be taking the ball out of Wilson’s hands too much in an MVP-caliber season. Wilson has been brilliant, even with Carroll limiting the amount Wilson gets to throw. The Seahawks WILL establish the run, even if it would probably easier to just let Wilson do his thing.
6. Minnesota Vikings (8-3)
Week 12: at Seattle (after the bye)
What matters most: Their 20-point deficit against the Broncos.
Yes, the Vikings won, 27-23, after falling into a 20-0 hole in the first half. I get that it’s impressive that they came back from that deficit. But why did they fall into that hole to begin with? I am as dubious about the Vikings as I am about the Bills. Minnesota runs well, defends well and — when Stefon Diggs is involved — passes well. Am I crazy to think think they don’t do those things well enough to win a playoff game?
Still chasing
Los Angeles Rams (6-4): Jared Goff seems to matter most to this team. When he’s incompetent, they struggle to win games.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-5): They gave New England a run for their money, but Bill Belichick eked out what he felt like was a “fun” win. (Lane Johnson, you mad, bro?)
Carolina Panthers (5-5): Kyle Allen isn’t good. Four interceptions in one game isn’t good.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) and Cleveland Browns (3-6) meet Thursday night for a primetime AFC North showdown. It’s a rivalry that dates back to 1950 with the Steelers leading the all-time series 75-58-1. That one tie came last year, 21-21, in their first meeting of the season, but Pittsburgh won the next round, 33-18, at home. Both teams are in the middle of the standings and can inch closer to the Ravens with a victory.
A 1-4 start and Ben Roethlisberger, the face of the franchise, out with a season-ending injury wasn’t exactly what Steeler Nation had envisioned to begin the season. However, Pittsburgh has turned things around and has won its last four games, including a 17-12 victory over the Rams. Mason Rudolph threw for 242 yards and one touchdown. James Washington led the team with six catches for 90 yards and one touchdown. The Steelers are averaging just over 21 points per game but rank near the bottom in total yards, passing yards and rushing yards per game. That didn’t stop coach Mike Tomlin, who made a gutsy 4th and 1 call with the team leading 14-12. That confidence may be the spark they needed for a shot at the playoffs.
Defensively, Rams quarterback Jared Goff was limited to just 243 yards and two interceptions. The Steelers’ defense sacked Goff four times in the game and forced three turnovers. Mark Barron racked up 10 tackles, while Joe Haden added seven tackles and an interception. Javon Hargrave and T.J. Watt were in Goff’s face throughout the game. Hargrave finished with seven tackles and one sack with Watt adding five tackles and two sacks to the stat sheet. They will face a versatile Browns offense that has playmakers in running back Nick Chubb and wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry.
The Buffalo Bills had a chance to tie the game against the Browns on Sunday, but instead, the field goal attempt missed with 22 seconds left, and Cleveland had a renewed sense of hope for its season. The Browns snapped a four-game losing streak with the 19-16 road win. Baker Mayfield completed 26 of 38 passes for 238 yards and two touchdowns. Nick Chubb rushed for 116 yards, his fourth 100+ yard game this season, which brought his season total to 919 yards– third-best in the NFL. With Kareem Hunt back as well, the Browns have a 1-2 punch at running back. Jarvis Landry led the team with nine catches for 97 yards, while Odell Beckham Jr. added five more for 57 yards.
Cleveland’s defense held Josh Allen to 266 yards passing and no touchdowns. The Browns rank seventh in the NFL against the pass. Myles Garrett has racked up ten sacks and will look to attack a weak offensive line for the Steelers, much the same away Aaron Donald and the Rams did a week ago.
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Here’s an updated look at the NFC playoff picture going into Week 11.
Losing to the Packers did serious damage to the Panthers’ playoff hopes for 2019. The loss dropped their season record to 5-4 and their chances of making the postseason to just 18 percent.
Here’s an updated look at the NFC playoff picture going into Week 11.
Playoff teams
1. San Francisco 49ers (8-1)
2. Green Bay Packers (8-2)
3. New Orleans Saints (7-2)
4. Dallas Cowboys (5-4)
5. Seattle Seahawks (8-2)
6. Minnesota Vikings (7-3)
Still in the race
7. Los Angeles Rams (5-4)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)
9. Carolina Panthers (5-4)
There’s not much room for error, here. Earlier in the season, the Panthers pulled off a four-game winning streak. They may need another one in order to land a wild card spot.
Carolina’s next four opponents are the Falcons, Saints, Redskins and the Falcons again. Atlanta is just 2-7 this season and Washington (1-8) might just be the worst team in the conference. If the Panthers can find a way to upset New Orleans, winning four in a row is certainly possible.
The Jags came out of their bye week in the hunt for the wild-card, but their loss to the Texans really hurt.
Although we’re over a week removed from the Jacksonville Jaguars’ loss to the Houston Texans, fans still are well aware of how costly it was. At the time, the victory would’ve put the Jags in second place in the AFC South with a 5-4 record and right in the heat of the battle for a wildcard seed when considering Week 10’s games. Instead, they will have to settle for the No. 10 seed with a 4-5 record.
As for the rest of the AFC, the standings for this week are as follows:
1. New England Patriots (8-1)
2. Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
3. Houston Texans (6-3)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
5. Buffalo Bills (6-3)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)
Obviously, a wild-card spot is what the Jags will have to settle for because they have a lot of ground to make up to catch the AFC South leading Texans, who are 6-3 and have two victories over them. That said, they definitely need to win Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts, who ironically are ahead of them in the playoff race and are in the same division. A win would put the Jags in second in the division with a 5-5 record and would help them leapfrog the Titans (due to Jacksonville’s Week 3 win), who also have a 5-5 record.
The key game to watch aside from the Jags’ during Week 11 will take place on Thursday night between the sixth seeded Pittsburgh Steelers and their divisional foes: the Cleveland Browns. The team’s typically play each other tough and a loss would knock the Steelers down to 5-5. Meanwhile, the fifth seed Buffalo Bills will take on the Miami Dolphins, while the seventh seed Oakland Raiders will take on the Cincinnati Bengals. Lastly, the ninth seeded Titans will be on their bye week.
The 49ers’ hold on the top of the NFC and NFC West standings can strengthen greatly with a win over the Seahawks on Monday Night Football.
The 49ers got a victory Sunday without even playing. The New Orleans Saints fell to the Falcons 26-9 and dropped their record to 7-2. That put a little more space between the 49ers and Saints in the race for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
However, the 49ers’ Monday night showdown with the Seahawks was already carrying the weight of a rekindled division rivalry. It was always going to be a huge game at Levi’s Stadium. Now it’s even heavier with a chance to put further distance between them and the rest of the NFC West, and the NFC as a whole.
Let’s take a look at what’s at stake for San Francisco on Monday night. Here’s what the NFC West standings look like after Sunday’s action:
A 49ers win puts them at 9-0, and drops Seattle to 7-3. That’s a 2.5-game cushion with seven weeks remaining, and one more matchup waiting between these two clubs at the end of the year. It wouldn’t necessarily clinch the division, but it would put San Francisco in a spot where it would need a pretty monumental collapse to slip out of the top spot in the division.
There’s the underlying benefit of re-asserting dominance in the rivalry with Seattle – a rivalry the Seahawks owned for a half-decade. Getting a victory over a playoff team and bitter rival would validate a lot of what the 49ers have done through the first nine weeks.
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What if the 49ers lose?
It’s not the end of the world, but it stings because of how monumental a win would’ve been. The 49ers would be at 8-1 with the 8-2 Seahawks nipping at their heels. That’s not a comfortable spot to be in with games against Green Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore, and another against Seattle all looming.
It would be easy to write off as a fluke if George Kittle misses the game, and losing one out of the first nine games would still be astronomically better than most people thought San Francisco would start, but the 2.5-game vs. 0.5-game separation in the division is significant, so a home loss to the Seahawks would certainly put a dent in the 49ers’ division championship aspirations.
***
There’s more than just the division to worry about though. The 49ers are in a position to snag the No. 1 overall seed and ensure the road to Super Bowl LIV goes through Levi’s Stadium.
New Orleans’ loss to Atlanta put a little breathing room between them and the 49ers for the top spot in the conference, but San Francisco can’t exhale yet. There are still plenty of conference-wide consequences for them Monday night.
Here’s what the NFC playoff picture looks like after Sunday’s games:
Getting the full two-game lead on the Saints and Packers would be massive considering the 49ers play both teams later in the year. Getting separation before those contests eliminates some of the pressure to win for head-to-head tiebreak purposes when the final playoff seeding comes down.
Losing to the Seahawks would squander a gift for the 49ers from Atlanta after they upset the Saints in New Orleans. They have to take advantage of any opportunity to pick up additional ground in the standings. It was already a big game had the Saints won, but their loss and the potential for a two-game lead makes it bigger.
What if the 49ers lose?
It’s not the end of the world because New Orleans did fall to the Falcons. That additional game of insurance is nice to have in the event the 49ers stumble at any point over the brutal back half of their schedule.
San Francisco would still be at the top of the NFC if Seattle emerges with the victory Monday night, but its lead would stick at one game, which is where it was entering the weekend.
While a loss wouldn’t derail the 49ers’ remarkable start, it would weaken their ability to put an early stranglehold on the top spot in the NFC, and keep them from taking a step toward home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
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