NFL playoff picture: What matters most to each team after Week 11

Breaking down what matters most to each potential playoff team.

Let’s talk about playoffs.

Yes, Jim Mora, PLAYOFFS!?!?

Most NFL teams have six weeks left in the NFL season (excluding the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, who play on Monday night). With just a handful of games left, the AFC’s hunt for a first-round bye may not be all that competitive. But the wild card should be fierce, even if it’s likely to boast teams with worse records (and worse talent) than the hunt happening in the NFC, which is intensely competitive from top to bottom. The NFC West, in particular, has been fun to watch. The division probably boasts three playoff-worthy teams. (Yes, even the struggling Los Angeles Rams are OK, even if they’re not quite as good as last season.)

Here’s a look at the current NFL playoff picture, with a focus on who or what matters most to each team after Week 11.

1. New England Patriots (9-1)

Week 12: vs. Dallas

Who matters most: Cornerback Stephon Gilmore.

The Patriots (best?) defensive player has allowed Bill Belichick tremendous schematic flexibility for the last two seasons. But the Patriots coach has flexed it more than ever in this 2019 season, with an Amoeba defense that has given fits to everyone but Lamar Jackson. Even Tom Brady admitted on Monday morning that the Patriots defense is the strength of the team — and it shows. Gilmore is the most important player on that defense. He’s a shutdown corner, who can erase a top receiver. In Week 11, he took Zach Ertz on third downs, and the Eagles went 3 of 13 on third-down conversions.

2. Baltimore Ravens (8-2)

Week 12: at L.A. Rams

What matters most: Lamar Jackson’s arm.

Much has been made of Jackson’s speed. But those who think that he can’t pass aren’t watching the games. And those who think he hasn’t been passing as well in recent weeks, again, aren’t watching the games. He did struggle against the Seattle Seahawks. But Jackson has been brilliant with a small sample size, in an era where most quarterbacks make their money off volume. Jackson doesn’t need to “get into a rhythm.” With a flick of the wrist, Jackson can deliver a beauty, even on a drive when the Ravens run the ball four times and pass just twice.

3. Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

Week 12: at Houston

What matters most: Guard Quentin Nelson. 

His keg-stand celebration is all that matters — ever. Nelson served as a fullback, and got a touchdown in Week 11 (and let’s just ignore the fact that touchdown didn’t end up counting). The Colts offensive line has been stellar in 2019. Nelson is the spirit animal of that line: tough, athletic, versatile. His unspoken chemistry with his teammates (demonstrated during the keg stand) is noteworthy.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)

Week 12: (still have MNF to play, then) vs. Raiders

What matters most: An improved secondary.

At this time last season, Kansas City’s most glaring flaw was their secondary. They couldn’t defend the 2019 version of Jared Goff, let alone the 2018 version. But this season, Kansas City boasts the ninth-best passing defense (221.4 yards passing yards allowed per game). We’ve seen huge steps forward with strong play from defensive backs Charvarius Ward, Juan Thornhill, Tyrann Mathieu and Bashaud Breeland. Mahomes hasn’t had to throw for over 500 yards per game, because the Chiefs aren’t allowing over 500 passing yards per game.

5. Buffalo Bills (7-3)

Week 12: vs. Denver

What matters most: Their schedule. 

The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets have taken turns looking like the worst team in the NFL. And the Cincinnati Bengals are right there with them. So it helps that the Bills have five games against those three putrid teams. Because of that easy schedule, they are probably the least talked-about playoff team, except for when people say, “Yeah but they probably actually stink.” The truth is that they’ll probably make the playoffs because of that schedule. We’ll see once/if they’re in the postseason whether they deserve to be there.

6. Houston Texans (6-4)

Next up: vs. Indianapolis

What matters most: The Raiders/Steelers/Titans/Browns. 

The Ravens embarrassed Houston, which sure seems like it isn’t a playoff-caliber squad. So if the Texans aren’t going to take their postseason fate into their own hands, they’ll have to watch what else happens at the bottom end of the AFC’s playoff hunt.

Still chasing

  • Oakland Raiders (6-4): I’ll tell you what man, Jon Gruden can coach. Knock on wood if you’re with me.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5): A loss to the Browns showed they’re still not a playoff-worthy team — yet. There’s still time for improvement.

1. San Francisco 49ers (9-1)

Week 12: vs. Green Bay

Who matters most: Kyle Shanahan. 

He is low-key looking like Sean McVay did last season. Maybe Shanahan doesn’t list off every player on the opponents roster (which wasn’t that cool anyway). Maybe Shanahan doesn’t need a get-back coach (which, again, wasn’t that cool anyway). But Shanahan’s offensive innovation has been superb, with an unstoppable running game that band-aids Jimmy Garoppolo’s shortcomings. (The defense is also really, really good.)

2. Green Bay Packers (8-2)

Week 12: at San Francisco

What matters most: This photo of a bro-hug. 

That is all.

Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

3. New Orleans Saints (8-2)

Week 12: vs. Carolina

Who matters most: Sean Payton.

He is to Bill Belichick what Peyton Manning was to Tom Brady. Payton has long been deserving of the Head Coach of the Year award. He’s supremely talented. But Belichick always gets the media’s argument for he’s-won-it-but-still-deserves-it angle. And then someone else wins it. Payton’s Saints have just two losses despite losing Drew Brees for five games. He’s good at this, folks. We give him plenty of credit, but maybe still not enough.

4. Dallas Cowboys (6-4)

Week 12: at New England

What matters most: Receiver Randall Cobb’s back-to-back 100 yard games.

In the larger playoff picture, Cobb doesn’t matter much. What matters is that the Cowboys passing offense is productive enough to support three productive receivers. Even in a game when Amari Cooper (3 catches, 38 yards) struggled to produce in Week 11, Cobb and Michael Gallup stepped up. The Cowboys offense has proven it can keep up with just about any offense in the NFL.

5. Seattle Seahawks (8-2)

Week 12: at Philadelphia

Who matters most: Russell Wilson.

Wilson has shown in past years he needs no support, but this season, the Seahawks may be overusing Wilson’s supporting cast at running back. Pete Carroll seems to be taking the ball out of Wilson’s hands too much in an MVP-caliber season. Wilson has been brilliant, even with Carroll limiting the amount Wilson gets to throw. The Seahawks WILL establish the run, even if it would probably easier to just let Wilson do his thing.

6. Minnesota Vikings (8-3)

Week 12: at Seattle (after the bye)

What matters most: Their 20-point deficit against the Broncos. 

Yes, the Vikings won, 27-23, after falling into a 20-0 hole in the first half. I get that it’s impressive that they came back from that deficit. But why did they fall into that hole to begin with? I am as dubious about the Vikings as I am about the Bills. Minnesota runs well, defends well and — when Stefon Diggs is involved — passes well. Am I crazy to think think they don’t do those things well enough to win a playoff game?

Still chasing

  • Los Angeles Rams (6-4): Jared Goff seems to matter most to this team. When he’s incompetent, they struggle to win games.
  • Philadelphia Eagles (5-5): They gave New England a run for their money, but Bill Belichick eked out what he felt like was a “fun” win. (Lane Johnson, you mad, bro?)
  • Carolina Panthers (5-5): Kyle Allen isn’t good. Four interceptions in one game isn’t good.

[opinary poll=”who-wins-this-hypothetical-super-bowl-ma” customer=”forthewin”]