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2021 NFL Draft: When will Florida TE Kyle Pitts be selected?

Analyzing NFL Draft odds around where Florida TE Kyle Pitts will be drafted with NFL Draft picks and predictions.

History figures to be made Thursday with the fourth pick in the NFL Draft.

One way or the other.

It could be the first time quarterbacks are selected with the first four picks, or we could see a tight end selected at the highest position in common draft history (since 1967).

The Atlanta Falcons, owners of that fourth pick, currently hold the cards (or draft card). And Florida standout Kyle Pitts is the tight end who could make history.

So let’s dive into the 2021 draft odds and betting lines for Pitts, who has a BetMGM draft position Over/Under of 5.5 and listed in several other intriguing proposition wagers on the board.

NFL Draft odds: Kyle Pitts draft position

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at noon ET.

Quarterbacks are all but locked into the first three picks — held by the Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers — but the Falcons seem unlikely to follow suit with QB Matt Ryan under contract for three more seasons.

A trade then, of course, comes into play but, while there has been talk of the Falcons dealing the fourth pick, the chances seemed to have cooled with teams seemingly content to let QBs Justin Fields and Trey Lance (most likely) slide a few spots.

The Cincinnati Bengals (fifth overall pick) and Miami Dolphins (sixth) don’t need a QB, and trading up into the seventh (Detroit Lions) or eighth spot (Carolina Panthers) would be a lot less cost-prohibitive than moving up to No. 4.

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So if not a quarterback at No. 4, why Pitts?

Quite simply, it’s not just because he’s the top-rated tight end in the 2021 draft. Pitts is a generational tight end talent who’s ranked behind only locked-in No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence on esteemed draft analyst Mel Kiper’s Big Board.

In addition, Kiper says the hyper-athletic, wide receiver-esque Pitts is the best NFL tight end prospect he’s ever graded since beginning to hand them out in the late 1970s.

That makes Pitts a draft unicorn and a real threat to usurp Riley Odoms (No. 5 overall to the Denver Broncos in 1972) as the highest drafted tight end since ’67. Odoms is the only tight end selected in the common draft era’s top five and one of the 14 at his position selected in the top 10 during that 53-year span.

If the Falcons somehow bypass Pitts, the Bengals, owners of No. 5 pick — and even more tight end needy — are sure to pounce.

Wagering recommendation

While Pitts is a slam dunk to be the first tight end drafted, few of us have the bankroll to pay the crazy -10000 juice on that wager.

It’s the same deal with Pitts -5000 as a top-10 pick, and even the Falcons to select a tight end with their first pick is steep at -350.

Going with Pitts under his draft position of 5.5 still costs -300, but instead go to the “Other” tab on the BetMGM draft wagering page and you can find Pitts at -225 to be a top five pick.

So, it’s the same pick at reduced juice. That’s your play on Pitts to make draft history Thursday.

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2021 NFL draft odds: When will Alabama WR DeVonta Smith be drafted?

Analyzing NFL Draft odds around DeVonta Smith with NFL Draft picks and predictions.

When it comes to wide receivers in this year’s NFL Draft class, it’s all about the top three: DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle and Ja’Marr Chase. Most have Chase as the best receiver in the NFL Draft, but Smith and Waddle are both elite prospects, too.

Smith is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner after catching 117 passes for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns last season, proving to be the best wideout in college football. But where will he be drafted Thursday evening when the first round of the NFL Draft begins?

Let’s dive in on Smith’s projected landing spot based on NFL Draft odds and betting lines.

NFL Draft odds: DeVonta Smith draft position

Over 11.5: -140
Under 11.5: +110

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 2 p.m. ET.

If not for size concerns, Smith would have a much stronger case to be the first wide receiver drafted. But at 166 pounds, teams might be worried about durability and how well he’ll hold up over the course of a 17-game season. That shouldn’t preclude them from taking him early, though. Smith dominated the last two years at Alabama, scoring 37 touchdowns and racking up more than 3,100 yards receiving.

His Over/Under is sandwiched between the Giants and Eagles, both of whom could take him at No. 11 and 12, respectively. If the Eagles want him, they might even consider trading up into the top 10. The Giants are a great landing spot for Smith, too, especially if both CB Patrick Surtain II and Jaycee Horn are gone. I’m taking the UNDER at 11.5 with Smith, as he has a good chance to go in the top 10 with Chase and potentially even Waddle.

Smith will have a successful NFL career thanks to his hands, route running and speed on the outside, and teams will look past his weight early in the draft.

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2021 NFL draft odds: Who will be the first running back drafted?

Analyzing NFL Draft odds around the first running back selected with NFL Draft picks and predictions.

Running backs have been devalued a bit in recent years with many teams opting not to use their early NFL Draft picks on tailbacks. That should remain the case this year, with a running back unlikely to go in the top 15.

There could be as many as three selected in the first round, however. Najee Harris, Travis Etienne and Javonte Williams are the top running back prospects in the class, well ahead of the rest of the group. It’s almost certain that at least one will go in Round 1, but all three could sneak into the first 32 picks, too.

Let’s dive in on running back NFL Draft odds and betting lines.

NFL Draft odds: First RB drafted

Alabama RB Najee Harris: -250
Clemson RB Travis Etienne: +170
North Carolina RB Javonte Williams: +850

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 2 p.m. ET.

After Williams, the next-closest running back on the list of odds to be drafted first is Tre Sermon at +5000, just to give you an idea of how far ahead this top trio is. The odds clearly favor Harris and rightfully so: He’s the best running back and most well-rounded player at the position this year. He’s a powerful runner who shows good balance and is dynamic as a receiver out of the backfield. Etienne is also a big-play slasher with receiving skills, while Williams is a compact runner who runs with excellent power.

The earliest any of these running backs is likely to go is at No. 18 to the Dolphins, who could use some backfield help. Then, the Jets, Steelers and Bills could consider taking a running back later in the first round, too. But in all likelihood, the Steelers or Jets will be the first to take one, and it’ll be Harris who has his name called. He’s been the best running back in the class all offseason and there’s little reason to believe that will change now. He would dramatically improve both the Steelers and Bills offenses and he might be too good for them to pass up late in the first round.

The Harris play is a bit pricey, though. New to sports betting? At -250 odds, it would take $250 to return a $100 profit if Harris does indeed go first among his peers.

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2021 NFL Draft odds: How many wide receivers will be drafted in the first round?

Analyzing NFL Draft odds around how many wide receivers will go in Round 1 with NFL Draft picks and predictions.

Every year I find myself placing a wager on this particular NFL Draft bet and sweating it out on the final two or three picks.

Coming off a year when we saw the deepest, most talented wide receiver draft class in history, there is still a need – especially for some of the elite teams at the end of Round 1 – to add a playmaking wide receiver. However, this year, I get the feeling I’ll have to pass entirely because I don’t believe in taking irrational chances with my money and hate the Over/Under number.

Lets dive in on wide receivers NFL Draft odds and betting lines.

NFL Draft odds: Number of First-Round Wide Receivers

Over 4.5: -400
Under 4.5: +280

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:30 a.m. ET.

It begs the question as to why the Over/Undcr wasn’t 5.5? It would have made for a much more equitable number on both sides, not -400 and +280.

Whenever you’re taking a group bet, you analyze by one thing you know for sure – how many of that group are guaranteed to go? There is little chance that Ja’Marr Chase and Alabama’s DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle make it out of the top dozen picks, much less the first round. That means only two more wide receivers need to come off the board to hit the ugly Over number of -400.

From Pick No. 20 on, you could make a case that Chicago, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Baltimore, New Orleans and Green Bay all have a primary team draft need that has a difference-making wide receiver at or near the top.

Then you look at the players who could make immediate impacts as potential first-round selections – Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney and Terrace Marshall. All of them have been tied to specific teams late in the first round. To make money on the Under, only one of those four can be taken in the final 20 picks of the first round.

I think three of those four are going to go, so I would AVOID making a bet on this on principle, but, if you’re willing to accept just 25 percent return on investment on a relatively sure thing, I heartily endorse the OVER.

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2021 NFL Draft Odds: When Will Clemson RB Travis Etienne Be Drafted?

Analyzing NFL Draft odds around when Clemson Tigers RB Travis Etienne will be selected with NFL Draft picks and predictions.

Clemson Tigers running back Travis Etienne is the most explosive dual-threat running back in the 2021 draft. But will anyone call his name before the end of the first round given the disrespect running backs tend to get on draft weekend?

Let’s dive in on Etienne’s NFL Draft odds and betting lines.

NFL Draft odds: RB Travis Etienne

Over 30.5: -115
Under 30.5: -110

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:02 a.m. ET.

The conundrum all running backs face on draft weekend is that they’re necessary for every team – anyone who knows football knows the first goal of any defense is to stop the run.

If you can’t, you lose. But, when it comes to the draft, running backs are disrespected. Etienne is every offensive coordinator’s dream. But, will he go where he should or slide into day 2 like so many others?

Etienne’s Over/Under for draft slotting is 30.5, which makes this a waiting game that, as things currently stand, won’t even bear paying attention to until the New York Jets at No. 23 (if they stay there).

Unless Washington Football Team shocks the world at No. 19. New York and the Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 24) are the best potential landing spots, as is the Buffalo Bills at No. 30.

Other than that, barring trades, there are many more teams in the slots at the end of the first round that have their RB situation covered.

As recently as Tuesday, Etienne’s draft position bet was at 33.5, which allowed for the Baltimore Ravens or Tampa Bay Buccaneers to trade out to a team looking for Etienne with fifth-year option potential and the first pick of Round 2, where teams would have hours to work out a trade with Jacksonville. But, tightening his number three spots is huge.

As it stands now, there are only three teams that would likely take Etienne where they’re selecting – the Jets at No. 23, Pittsburgh at No. 24 and Buffalo at No. 30.

That’s too selective a market for teams that may be convinced there is value on day 2 of the draft. I love Etienne, but the market got sharper by dropping his number to 30.5.

TAKE the OVER 30.5 (-115).

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2021 NFL Draft Odds: When Will North Dakota State QB Trey Lance be Drafted?

Analyzing NFL Draft odds around when North Dakota State QB Trey Lance will be selected with NFL Draft picks and predictions.

There is a belief that, for some reason, when the San Francisco 49ers make a pick at No. 3 that somehow QBs coming off the board are going to stop.

I’m pretty sure that’s not happening, but I can almost guarantee if Trey Lance is on the board after the third pick, the run won’t stop.

Let’s dive in on Lance’s NFL Draft odds and betting lines.

NFL Draft odds: QB Trey Lance draft position

Over 6.5: +150
Under 6.5: -190

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:38 a.m. ET.

The specter of guys like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, who were viewed as athletes with a high upside, but not worthy of being taken early, has changed how risk-takers in the league value potential.

Fans remember when you pass on a franchise QB. Lance has the pure athleticism to thrive in almost any system with strong coaching and, despite not playing elite competition, has a higher ceiling than any quarterback that will be on the board when San Francisco is on the clock at No. 3 – where I have them making Lance their pick.

Even if San Francisco takes Mac Jones (the wrong move) or Justin Fields at No. 3, it doesn’t mean you lose this bet by taking the UNDER 6.5 (-190).

You still have three more picks to go that can take you to the pay window – and the scenarios look great.

Atlanta Falcons are financially tied into Matt Ryan for the next two seasons, which could lead them to envision Lance as the long-term answer to a stable QB future.

If Lance makes it past Atlanta, the critical pick is the Miami Dolphins at No. 6. The Dolphins have already traded from No. 3 to No. 12 back up to No. 6.

If Lance is still on the board at No. 7, the Detroit Lions will get the S.O.D. (Steal of the Draft).

At least one team with an unsettled long-term QB situation will be willing to make the bold jump to dance with Miami and give them more draft capital.

Detroit might throw them one of their third-rounders just to flip-flop and seal the deal.

I love the UNDER 6.5 (-190) on this one for too many reasons – starting with the 49ers taking him at No. 3 and ending the speculation.

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2021 NFL Draft: Bank on these players going with the first 3 picks

Which players will be taken, in order, in the first three NFL Draft selections? We analyze the odds around the top of the draft order.

Predicting the exact first three picks of the NFL Draft typically is moderately challenging.

And even the favored 1-2-3 combo usually would present a plus-payout wagering opportunity.

But then we have the 2021 draft, where the only real question in the top three is who will be the third quarterback selected by the San Francisco 49ers with QBs Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) and Zach Wilson (New York Jets) essentially locked in with the first two selections.

So let’s dive into the 2021 draft odds and betting lines. BetMGM currently offers 133 different options for its Exact Outcome Picks 1-3 wager, with the 1st Lawrence/2nd Wilson/3rd Mac Jones the favorite at -190. New to sports betting? Odds of -190 imply 65.52% probability, or 10/19 fractional odds. Every $10 bet returns $5.26 profit if correct.

NFL Draft odds: Exact order of first three picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 6:50 p.m. ET.

So -190?

Yep.

Lawrence reportedly already has received a copy of the Jaguars’ playbook and is listed with -10000 odds to go first overall.

The Jets, meanwhile, already dealt QB Sam Darnold, the 2018 third-overall pick, to the Carolina Panthers this spring, and have had Wilson in for a physical. He’s listed at a hefty -2500 to go second overall.

That leaves the Niners at No. 3, and Alabama’s Jones is a solid favorite at -200. QBs Trey Lance (+210) and Justin Fields (+400) are the other two front-runners before you hit the longshots, starting with tight end Kyle Pitts at +2200.

Fields, a two-year starter at Ohio State after transferring from Georgia, was the presumed target for the 49ers as soon as the trade with the Miami Dolphins hit the headlines in late March. But starting not long after with a report by ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Jones — the rapidly rising one-year starter from national champion Alabama — was reported to be the Niners’ impetus in moving from No. 12 up to No. 3.

Plenty of coy interviews, subterfuge and conflicting rumors over the third pick have followed, though, over the last few weeks with Fields and Lance jumping into the favorite’s seat at times, but Jones is back as the clear clubhouse leader with draft week upon us.

The San Francisco secrecy has been a bit puzzling as there have been next to no rumblings of any team trading with the Jets or Jags to jump ahead of the Niners and selecting a quarterback other than Lawrence or Wilson.

Perhaps there’s been some strong league encouragement, though, to keep the pick under wraps and keep interest in Thursday night’s first round high.

NFL Draft betting recommendation

Initially, the thought of the Niners essentially trading three first-round picks to move up nine spots and select Jones, a borderline first-round prospect at the start of the year, seemed to be absurd.

But the reports and rumors have more or less held steady, and sharp analysts have pointed out that Jones’ skill set does compare rather favorably to the NFL QBs (Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo and even Matt Schaub) 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has had the most success with.

Fields was my initial projection for No. 3 with the reports that the Niners were determined to hold on to Garoppolo for 2021, giving the raw rookie time to develop. But I’m now buying the Jones narrative, and the recommendation here is to lay the juice and go with the chalk option here with Lawrence-Wilson-Jones at -190.

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2021 NFL Draft odds: When will Alabama WR Jaylen Waddle be drafted?

Analyzing NFL Draft odds around Jaylen Waddle with NFL Draft picks and predictions.

This year’s NFL Draft class is rich with wide receiver talent, particularly at the top with the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith. All three are locks to be first-round NFL Draft picks and should be taken within the first 15 selections, too.

But when it comes to Waddle, where will he be drafted? Could he go in the top six? Or will both Chase and Smith be selected ahead of him, causing him to fall out of the top 10? We’ll attempt to predict where Waddle will land based on his Over/Under draft position.

Let’s dive in on Waddle’s NFL Draft odds and betting lines.

NFL Draft odds: WR Jaylen Waddle draft position

Over 10.5: +100
Under 10.5: -125

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 6 p.m. ET.

Most analysts view Chase as the No. 1 receiver in this class despite him opting out of the 2020 season. After Chase, pundits are torn on whether Waddle or Smith will be the next wideout off the board, with a slight lean in Waddle’s direction. His draft position projection is 10.5 and I’m inclined to take the UNDER on that line.

If the Cincinnati Bengals take Chase at No. 5, that leaves the Miami Dolphins at No. 6 and the Detroit Lions at No. 7 as Waddle’s likeliest suitors. Both teams could use a dynamic receiver like him and there’s a decent chance one or the other will select Waddle. If they pass on him, a team like the New York Giants or Philadelphia Eagles could come up from outside the top 10 to draft him inside the first 10 picks.

Waddle should have the edge over his former teammate Smith, which is likely to get him drafted inside the top 10.

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2021 NFL Mock Draft: Who is the first non-QB off the board?

Projecting the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, with Kyle Pitts being the first non-QB drafted.

The 2021 NFL Draft is around the corner with Round 1 kicking off next Thursday, April 29. With quarterbacks expected to dominate the first few picks, things could get interesting when the Atlanta Falcons go on the clock at No. 4 overall.

Could they take a quarterback themselves? Will they trade back to a team looking for a franchise passer? Or will they stand pat and pick the best non-QB?

In this NFL Mock Draft, the Falcons stay put at No. 4 and give quarterback Matt Ryan a new weapon at tight end. Quarterbacks Trey Lance and Mac Jones then begin to slide, but their falls won’t last long.

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