Every year I find myself placing a wager on this particular NFL Draft bet and sweating it out on the final two or three picks.
Coming off a year when we saw the deepest, most talented wide receiver draft class in history, there is still a need – especially for some of the elite teams at the end of Round 1 – to add a playmaking wide receiver. However, this year, I get the feeling I’ll have to pass entirely because I don’t believe in taking irrational chances with my money and hate the Over/Under number.
Lets dive in on wide receivers NFL Draft odds and betting lines.
NFL Draft odds: Number of First-Round Wide Receivers
- Over 4.5: -400
- Under 4.5: +280
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:30 a.m. ET.
It begs the question as to why the Over/Undcr wasn’t 5.5? It would have made for a much more equitable number on both sides, not -400 and +280.
Whenever you’re taking a group bet, you analyze by one thing you know for sure – how many of that group are guaranteed to go? There is little chance that Ja’Marr Chase and Alabama’s DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle make it out of the top dozen picks, much less the first round. That means only two more wide receivers need to come off the board to hit the ugly Over number of -400.
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From Pick No. 20 on, you could make a case that Chicago, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Baltimore, New Orleans and Green Bay all have a primary team draft need that has a difference-making wide receiver at or near the top.
Then you look at the players who could make immediate impacts as potential first-round selections – Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney and Terrace Marshall. All of them have been tied to specific teams late in the first round. To make money on the Under, only one of those four can be taken in the final 20 picks of the first round.
I think three of those four are going to go, so I would AVOID making a bet on this on principle, but, if you’re willing to accept just 25 percent return on investment on a relatively sure thing, I heartily endorse the OVER.
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