Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
Keeping track of all the coaching changes as the 2020 NFL regular season comes to a close.
The Monday following Week 17 in the NFL is one of the toughest days of the league year. Organizations that failed to meet expectations often make changes at the top, resulting in a number of coaching and even front office firings.
It is part of the business of the NFL, and as such there will be lots of stories that unfold over the next few days. Here is a list of all the coaching changes made around the league.
A year after the Freddie Kitchens disaster, the brass again trusts the Browns with a first-time head coach.
For the second time in as many offseasons, the Cleveland Browns have hired an offensive coordinator without experience as a head coach to lead the talented-laden roster in to battle each Sunday.
Marked changes this time: Demeanor and accountability. The 2020 hiring, Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, replaces Freddie Kitchen. Arguably the most important difference is found in how they present themselves as leaders. Kitchens talked a big game during the introductory press conference and seemed like he was from the mold of being the right blend between a player’s coach and team leader. By midseason, neither proved to be true.
Stefanski brings an even-keeled demeanor that commands respect. His actions have backed up this unspoken authority by finding ways to keep the mouthy Stefon Diggs content, feeding several targets, and making sure head coach Mike Zimmer’s preference for leaning on the ground game was successfully implemented.
[lawrence-related id=448436]
How did Stefanski get to this point in such a short period of time, one may ask? Well, it wasn’t as brief as it may have seemed. He was lurking in the background of the Minnesota sidelines for years before being an inseason replacement for fired OC John DeFilippo in the 2018 season. The Vikings were calling pass plays at rate of nearly 2-to-1 over rushing the ball, and Zimmer wasn’t having it. After a late-season swing that made the Vikings see Stefanski could handle the task, the interim label was removed heading into the 2019 offseason. He would go on to establish one of the NFL’s most dominant rushing attacks with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison, even seeing Mike Boone post studly numbers as an injury replacement in one contest.
Prior to his ascension, Stefanski coached pretty much everything for the Vikings. He began in 2006 as a 24-year-old assistant to head coach Brad Childress and served in this role through the 2008 season. Then he became the assistant quarterbacks coach in 2009, helping Brett Favre author one of his finest seasons as a pro. Stefanski would hold this title through 2013 after Childress was fired and replaced by Leslie Frazier in 2010. Zimmer came in prior to the 2014 season and moved Stefanski to tight ends coach for two years. In 2016, at 34, Stefanski would coach the running backs for one season and then become the full-blown quarterbacks coach in 2017.
During his full season calling plays, Stefanski’s Vikings ranked (1st being best):
Stefanski, 37, offers a much different style of calling games. One could say that’s because he knows what he’s doing, but Kitchens flashed potential in the 2018 season as an interim playcaller, one may contest. The latter would get too enamored with the pass at times in 2019 and turn to the running game when it was too late. He would make head-scratching decisions, especially around the end zone, and even once admitted some of the situations were new to him. While that is true, who says that as a head coach?!? The responsibilities of calling plays and being the head coach proved to be too much for him.
Anyway, the point isn’t to pile on Kitchens. It’s to show Stefanski is poised to do something Kitchens likely never would have been able to accomplish: Turn around the culture of a losing tradition. That starts by implementing the right mentality — one of accountability, respect, and discipline — but it also comes with the mandate of winning. Without those W’s, the culture can quickly dissolve.
So how does Stefanski go about delivering wins? It will take a few things first that are out of his control. The primary factor is the offensive line must be bolstered. Far too often quarterback Baker Mayfield was running for his life or taken to the turf. Play designs can help, but substandard personnel can take a team only so far…
Another area is cutting down on mistakes, which is a group effort. This comes from having heady players, respected leaders, a consistent voice from the coaching staff, and a system that doesn’t beg for unforced errors. All of the fancy misdirections and so forth in other offenses comes at a price, which tends to be a greater frequency of mistakes.
Simplistically speaking, Stefanski’s system is rooted in the West Coast offense. He had a helping hand of epic proportions from the man who would replace him in Minnesota, Gary Kubiak. The offensive master served as an assistant to the offensive coaches in 2019 and assistant head coach. In short, his responsibility was to make Stefanski’s job easier … teach, but don’t get in the way. Few men on planet Earth know as much about a zone-blocking scheme as Kubiak, and Stefanski will bring this system with him to Cleveland. Speaking of tutelage, Bill Callahan is the new offensive line coach and is widely regarded among the best in the game at installing a zone system.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt is expected to be the offensive coordinator in name only. He will help with the game plans and preparation.
[lawrence-related id=448806]
It requires athletic linemen who tend to be smaller and quicker than the norm. They move in a choreographed flow to create holes in the front seven for which the running back is responsible to attack, wherever said gaps may occur. Oftentimes, runners are forced to make split-second cutbacks and go against the grain of the defensive pursuit. It tends to produce chunk plays and has created some of the most successful fantasy football backfields of all time.
It also keeps Mayfield from tossing so many meatballs to the opposite team. The 2018 No. 1 overall pick set the rookie touchdown pass record with a fierce surge under Kitchens as his interim OC that year, but it all fell apart in 2019’s iteration. The TDs came way down, the INTs went way up, and Mayfield looked like he was trying to do too much too often. Expect that to be the primary focus of Stefanski. Keeping Mayfield playing within the system and relying on play-action passing to catch defenses off-guard. Low passing volume figures to be a staple of this offense. That’s not to say Mayfield cannot take advantage and play at a high level in fantasy, but he’ll need to be extremely efficient.
Obviously, such a shift in philosophy greatly caters to another strong year by running back Nick Chubb. It remains uncertain as to what the Browns will do with restricted free agent Kareem Hunt. He was recently involved in a traffic stop, and Cleveland has a new general manager heading into free agency. The former Kansas City Chief could receive an offer from another franchise that just isn’t worth matching on Cleveland’s end.
In free agency, Cleveland’s offense faces left tackle Greg Robinson, backup quarterback Drew Stanton and WR Rashard Higgins all set to become unrestricted in March. Robinson, the No. 2 overall pick in 2014, will all but guaranteed be playing for his fifth team in 2020.
While Odell Beckham Jr. and tight end David Njoku aren’t free agents, both players are coming off of extremely disappointing seasons. Njoku was made inactive late in the year as a healthy scratch, and one reason cited was his struggle catching the ball. He never has been a natural receiver and has relied heavily on his athleticism. OBJ, however, catches everything under the sun but will be asked to spend an inordinate amount of time building chemistry with Mayfield this summer.
Jarvis Landry’s release would save more than $10 million against the salary cap. He produced like a weak WR1 last year, and Cleveland has plenty of cap space, so it’s unlikely he’s axed. Restructuring his deal is in play, though.
We’ve established Mayfield will be asked to do less, and Chubb possibly tasked with more of a workload, mostly depending on what happens with Hunt. Mayfield should have a few huge games and disappear in others based on game plans and situation requirements — much like Kirk Cousins last year in Minnesota. Even though Mayfield is fully expected to rebound, don’t think he’s going to explode. This just isn’t the system for it.
Chubb remains an RB1 candidate in all formats, mostly because of his explosive nature. His body of work speaks for itself, and there is little chance he escapes the first five fantasy draft picks while playing in this system. Hunt would be a PPR No. 3 who can post quality RB2 numbers many weeks based on receiving work.
Beckham and Jarvis Landry should alternate fantasy roles this year and produce similarly to what the expectations were entering 2019. While the volume won’t be the same as he was used to in New York, Beckham’s game is built around getting down the field. He’s a low-tier No. 1, if for no reason than his otherworldly athletic traits. Landry was supposed to be his sidekick in 2019 and ended up leading the offense in catches, receiving yards and aerial scores. Flip that script in favor of OBJ in 2020, especially if the O-line improves.
Njoku may not even be the best tight end on this roster for fantasy purposes. The market has a few viable options, but he’s pretty well a lock to return with the entirety of his 2020 cap charge being guaranteed money. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, he’s a fringe No. 1 tight end at a position that is rocky after the top names. In reality, Njoku is no more than a backup with perennial upside yet to materialize.
A first-time NFL head coach takes over the New York Giants, and fantasy football owners are left with plenty of questions.
At 38 years old, Joe Judge becomes the fourth man to coach the New York Giants since the Tom Coughlin era ended in 2015. Both Ben McAdoo and Pat Shurmur were hired as promising offensive coordinators looking to put a fresh — if even youthful by comparison — stamp on this proud franchise after 12 years of rule by the elder statesman.
It almost worked with McAdoo after he nearly doubled Coughlin’s win total from 2015 with an 11-5 showing in ’16. In the three seasons since, with McAdoo being replaced during the 2017 season by Steve Spagnuolo and Shurmur lasting two full campaigns, the Giants have won 12 total games. That does not get the job done, even in the NFC East.
Circling back to present time, the hiring of an untested coach seems curious. There is much to be learned right away, and finding out the hard way in the NFL typically costs many people their jobs as the franchise has to press the reset button. If all else fails, no one can accuse the Mara family of being afraid to take a chance.
[lawrence-related id=448436]
So what did the brass see in Judge to warrant his hiring? Experience winning at the highest level, for one. He comes over after spending eight years with the New England Patriots, getting his start as a special teams assistant (2012-14). He served most recently as special teams coordinator (2015-19) while adding wide receivers coach in 2019 to his list of responsibilities. The 2019 Giants’ ragtag band of wideouts thoroughly surprised most prognosticators with 20 touchdown grabs (tied fourth most). Receivers coach Tyke Tolbert was retained for his third year, indicating Judge may not need to be heavily involved in this area of the team.
No one has to worry about Judge taking on too much of a role in his first year in New York. The offense will be run by Jason Garrett after his contract was not renewed by the division-rival Dallas Cowboys for a 10th full season as their head coach. He made a name for himself as an offensive mind once his quarterbacking days were done. The long-time backup to Troy Aikman found immediate success as a playcaller for the Cowboys. He would go on to relinquish the dual role of head coach and offensive coordinator following the 2012 season.
Table: Jason Garrett’s team rankings as a playcaller (lower number is better)
|
Offense
|
Rushing Off
|
Passing Off
|
||||||||||||
|
Year
|
Tm
|
Role
|
Yds
|
Pts
|
TO
|
Att
|
Yds
|
TD
|
Y/A
|
FL
|
Att
|
Yds
|
TD
|
Int
|
|
2007
|
DAL
|
OC
|
3
|
2
|
7
|
21
|
17
|
10
|
10
|
1
|
18
|
4
|
2
|
21
|
|
2008
|
DAL
|
OC
|
13
|
18
|
31
|
25
|
21
|
22
|
12
|
26
|
8
|
9
|
4
|
29
|
|
2009
|
DAL
|
OC
|
2
|
14
|
4
|
17
|
7
|
15
|
2
|
11
|
13
|
6
|
13
|
3
|
|
2010
|
DAL
|
HC/OC
|
7
|
7
|
20
|
15
|
16
|
21
|
15
|
17
|
9
|
6
|
7
|
20
|
|
2011
|
DAL
|
HC*
|
11
|
15
|
7
|
24
|
18
|
30
|
9
|
16
|
11
|
7
|
5
|
5
|
|
2012
|
DAL
|
HC*
|
6
|
15
|
25
|
31
|
31
|
27
|
30
|
17
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
28
|
*Called plays despite no longer having OC title
Under Garrett as a playcaller, Dallas never fell into the lower half of the league in total yardage generated. His system always produced a top-10 passing yardage result, and all but one season it ranked in the top seven for touchdown strikes. The ground game didn’t flourish as well, but in Garrett’s defense, the Cowboys struggled for ages to find a running back to replace Emmitt Smith for longer than a season or so of quality play until Ezekiel Elliott was drafted, and Garrett wasn’t calling plays at that point. Instead, he had Marion Barber III and two years of DeMarco Murray not being particularly effective. Garrett took to the air at a top-10 rate in his final two years calling plays, including the league’s second-most attempts during the 2011 season.
In New York, the do-all Saquon Barkley should continue to thrive, but no player figures to benefit as much as quarterback Daniel Jones. Garrett has been fortunate enough to field two franchise quarterbacks during his tenure in Dallas, and we saw more than enough promise from Jones as a rookie to buy into the idea this union is destined for great things.
The Giants have plenty of salary cap space at an estimated $58.2 million available heading into the new league year. There could be even more room found if a few veterans are restructured. No one of consequence on the offensive side of the ball is slated to become an unrestricted free agent in March.
Addressing the offensive line will be crucial, and some of the deficiencies can be handled via coaching. Building in the trenches will be the focus of the offseason movement and draft, which should come as no surprise given general manager Dave Gettleman’s preference for designing a team from the inside out.
[lawrence-related id=448831]
Journeyman right tackle Mike Remmers will be available to sign elsewhere, and it’s not a concern, even though the obvious answer to replace him isn’t currently on the roster. Perhaps impending free agent Jack Conklin (Titans) will be of interest. Maybe a positional change is considered for left tackle Nate Solder, who has failed to live up to a massive contract as the blindside protector.
Center Jon Halapio will start his offseason rehabbing a torn Achilles tendon, and the run-blocking regression of second-year guard Will Hernandez didn’t go unnoticed. Neither is a deal-breaker, but adding quality depth will be extremely important.
Oft-injured tight end Evan Engram’s contract enters its final year and is fully guaranteed. While the cost of cutting him wouldn’t be prohibitive at $3.41 million, he’s going to be getting paid that much anyway, so the Giants might as well ride it out one more year with the talented but brittle Engram.
Jones, as mentioned, should benefit a great deal from the hiring of Garrett. The receiving corps has safety and promise already baked in, and when all is working properly, Engram and Barkley offer dynamic checkdown options. Having such explosive outlets can turn a hurried dump-off pass into a double-digit fantasy play for Jones’ owners. The offensive line concerns and having to learn another offense do give some pause. Cautiously draft him as a high-end QB2 and expect him to force tough lineup decisions many weeks.
Barkley battled a high-ankle sprain and a weak offensive line during his sophomore season. Don’t hold those against him. Injuries haven’t become a pattern yet, and the line should improve. We saw late in the season when he was finally healthy just how much damage he can do in spite of poor run blocking. He’s arguably the top pick once again and is pretty well a lock for the top three in any PPR draft.
Wideouts … this is where it gets a little murky. We saw a tremendous rookie season from Darius Slayton, and one has to believe he will be given every opportunity to capitalize on it. There’s star potential here, but gamers should monitor his offseason progression in this new system. Golden Tate showed he still has a little somethin’ in the tank as he navigates his early 30s, and he’s remains a serviceable depth option in fantasy. “Serviceable” also can be said for Sterling Shepard, although his concussion tally is trending the wrong way. One big hit could be enough to force him to be shut down for an unusual amount of time. He performs as a WR2 many weeks, so there’s still a reason to take a chance on Shepard.
Engram, as discussed, will be given every opportunity to prove he’s still capable of finishing a full season and play at a high level throughout. The upside comes with massive risk in fantasy drafts, and owners will be forced to spend up on an adequate depth replacement option if Engram is their No. 1 tight end.
As for Judge, as long as he relies on his extensive experience with Bill Belichick and a his former head coaches on staff, the sky is the limit. He has the right demeanor to turn this thing around in a hurry, and New York really isn’t that far away from being one of the scariest offenses in the NFL for fantasy football purposes. It all comes down to getting more from the offensive line and the Year 2 maturation of a quarterback whose rookie season was full of bright spots.
Veteran offensive mastermind Gary Kubiak replaces Kevin Stefanski as the playcaller of Minnesota’s talented offense.
Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski turned a stint of less than two full years at the position into the head coaching gig of the Cleveland Browns, and it resulted in Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer naming veteran offensive mastermind Gary Kubiak the OC for 2020.
The move makes a ton of sense for a number of reasons. Primarily, this team has tremendous “win-now pressure” to go on top of playing in a tough division and highly competitive conference. Rather than turning over the keys to an inexperienced playcaller, letting Kubiak drive this supercharged offense helps ensure it will achieve peak performance. His offensive system won’t be much different from what Stefanski ran, since Kubiak helped develop that system.
[lawrence-related id=448436]
If you remember back to Stefanski taking over for the fired John DeFilippo in 2018, Zimmer wanted to return to his roots with a ground-based offense. The Vikings were extremely effective running the ball in 2019 under Stefanski, and only two teams (SF, BAL) passed less often than Minnesota (50.5 percent run plays). Six of the seven teams to run the most plays on the ground were in the postseason this year, whereas just KC out of the 11 most pass-happy teams clinched a postseason berth. Remaining committed to such a formula is Zimmer’s directive in hiring Kubiak, the 2019 assistant head coach.
A quick refresher on Kubiak’s history reminds us of his love for running the football. Due, in part, to past health issues, he sat out of coaching in 2017 and ’18, instead holding a consultation role with the Denver Broncos. Granted, much has changed across the NFL from 1995 to present day, yet we have seen Kub produce top rushing and passing offenses, depending upon the personnel. While he mostly found success with average quarterback talent and a superstar in his last hoorah, it’s not like too many of Kubiak’s running backs were elite, either.
|
Offense
|
Rushing Off
|
Passing Off
|
||||||||||||
|
Year
|
Tm
|
Role
|
Yds
|
Pts
|
TO
|
Att
|
Yds
|
TD
|
Y/A
|
FL
|
Att
|
Yds
|
TD
|
Int
|
|
1995
|
DEN
|
OC
|
3
|
9
|
14
|
16
|
5
|
13
|
2
|
22
|
7
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
|
1996
|
DEN
|
OC
|
1
|
4
|
17
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
4
|
25
|
16
|
13
|
5
|
12
|
|
1997
|
DEN
|
OC
|
1
|
1
|
6
|
6
|
4
|
5
|
2
|
7
|
20
|
9
|
4
|
6
|
|
1998
|
DEN
|
OC
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
21
|
7
|
5
|
8
|
|
1999
|
DEN
|
OC
|
14
|
18
|
10
|
9
|
12
|
10
|
14
|
8
|
10
|
15
|
26
|
16
|
|
2000
|
DEN
|
OC
|
2
|
2
|
7
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
17
|
9
|
3
|
6
|
5
|
|
2001
|
DEN
|
OC
|
22
|
10
|
9
|
6
|
10
|
30
|
19
|
3
|
20
|
25
|
8
|
18
|
|
2002
|
DEN
|
OC
|
3
|
7
|
11
|
11
|
5
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
14
|
8
|
18
|
23
|
|
2003
|
DEN
|
OC
|
7
|
10
|
7
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
26
|
22
|
16
|
18
|
|
2004
|
DEN
|
OC
|
5
|
9
|
18
|
2
|
4
|
15
|
8
|
5
|
16
|
6
|
8
|
25
|
|
2005
|
DEN
|
OC
|
5
|
7
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
25
|
18
|
20
|
2
|
|
2006
|
HOU
|
HC
|
28
|
28
|
11
|
21
|
21
|
14
|
20
|
16
|
23
|
27
|
28
|
8
|
|
2007
|
HOU
|
HC
|
14
|
12
|
31
|
22
|
22
|
16
|
24
|
27
|
19
|
11
|
12
|
28
|
|
2008
|
HOU
|
HC
|
3
|
17
|
30
|
16
|
13
|
11
|
13
|
20
|
7
|
4
|
13
|
29
|
|
2009
|
HOU
|
HC
|
4
|
10
|
16
|
20
|
30
|
18
|
31
|
17
|
4
|
1
|
5
|
17
|
|
2010
|
HOU
|
HC
|
3
|
9
|
4
|
19
|
7
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
10
|
4
|
17
|
7
|
|
2011
|
HOU
|
HC
|
13
|
10
|
6
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
8
|
22
|
30
|
18
|
18
|
3
|
|
2012
|
HOU
|
HC
|
7
|
8
|
6
|
4
|
8
|
4
|
16
|
1
|
18
|
11
|
18
|
10
|
|
2013
|
HOU
|
HC
|
11
|
31
|
26
|
22
|
20
|
28
|
15
|
9
|
6
|
15
|
25
|
28
|
|
2014
|
BAL
|
OC
|
12
|
8
|
6
|
11
|
8
|
5
|
7
|
9
|
17
|
13
|
12
|
8
|
|
2015
|
DEN
|
HC
|
16
|
19
|
29
|
17
|
17
|
12
|
13
|
7
|
13
|
14
|
28
|
32
|
|
2016
|
DEN
|
HC
|
27
|
22
|
21
|
15
|
27
|
20
|
28
|
30
|
17
|
21
|
21
|
12
|
Kubiak didn’t call the plays himself in each of those seasons. However, including them is a must, since he didn’t take his finger off of the heartbeat of his teams’ systems. Whether it be handpicking the playcaller, constructing a game plan, and/or interjecting with a specific call during a game, Kubiak never let the offensive designs truly go out of his control. He also had a large role in molding the Stefanski system of 2019, as mentioned.
Zone blocking is a staple of a Kubiak offense, and the outside stretch run is one of his favorite plays. The offense loves to deceive defenses through play-action passing, rollouts, bootlegs, misdirections and a plethora of personnel groupings. Being a West Coast system, running backs are expected to catch, and tight ends are just as important as route runners as blockers. Receivers are asked to block as much as any team. They operate with short-area routes and clearouts to keep defenses scrambling to cover the proper level.
Surprisingly, on offense, that is, the Vikings have no noteworthy impending free agents. No team has less money with which to work during free agency, and there are several familiar defensive faces poised to walk for one reason or another.
Soaking up 15.5 percent of the overall salary cap, quarterback Kirk Cousins should be asked to rework his deal. The team could ask him to restructure his contract in a way that adds time to the final year of his original three-year pact, or the Vikings will let him ride it out at $31 million against the cap and limit their ability to spend elsewhere.
Left tackle Riley Reiff may be asked to restructure, and Minnesota would save $8.8 million against the cap by releasing the veteran.
Nearly 13 percent of the cap is tied up in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs alone. Dalvin Cook enters the final year of his rookie deal ahead of what figures to be his desire to ink a bank-breaking contract.
The most simplistic view is little should change under Kubiak. So long as the running game is effective, the passing game can be tuned into an efficient machine that operates on precision and yards after the catch, rather than sheer volume.
Cousins will continue to be asked to produce as a game manager first, gunslinger second. That results in uneven fantasy returns but can be explosive when everything properly aligns. He’s a fringe QB1 and a safer No. 2 or rotational passer in 2020 drafts.
Cook may see a few more reps if the Vikings don’t intend to re-sign him after the season. Take that into consideration: If no long-term extension is reached between the two sides before your fantasy draft, Cook might be abused with a heavy workload. Either way, he’s an elite RB1 in all formats. Handcuffing Alexander Mattison is the way to go.
The wideouts, primarily Diggs and Thielen, will continue to be inconsistent in this type of an offense. Diggs is a streaky player as it is, and Thielen should remain the preferred fantasy option, despite his lengthy absence with a bum hammy in 2019. He adds more to fantasy lineups across the board than the volume-dependent Diggs, whose game is better suited for PPR setups. Thielen is a borderline WR1 (much safer as a No. 2), and Diggs is a low-end WR2 in PPR or third in conventional scoring.
Tight end was a volatile position for this offense in 2019. Veteran Kyle Rudolph was in a slumber much of the way before awakening in grand fashion as Thielen battled his hamstring injury. We also saw flashes from rookie Irv Smith Jr., and he could be asked to take on a much larger role in 2020 — which presumably would come at the expense of Rudolph’s fantasy football contributions. Neither player is a starting target just yet in 12-team leagues with typical lineup requirements.
Former Washington head coach Jay Gruden comes to Duval County to help right the ship.
The Jacksonville Jaguars opted to keep head coach Doug Marrone in charge for the 2020 season but made yet another switch at offensive coordinator — this time bringing in former Washington Redskins head coach Jay Gruden.
Gruden made a name for himself as an elite player and also a head coach in the Arena Football League. He won four titles as a player and another two as a coach, appearing in four total championship games while on the sidelines. He also appeared in one more title game, losing during his lone year as the head coach in the United Football League.
From 2002-08, Gruden served as an offensive assistant under his brother, Jon Gruden, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, including during their Super Bowl win. During the 2009 he was the OC in the UFL for the Florida Tuskers, and he became head coach of the franchise for 2010 season.
The NFL came calling once again in 2011. Then-Cincinnati Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis hired Gruden to serve as his offensive coordinator, a position he held for three seasons prior to joining Washington.
Table: Jay Gruden’s offensive ranks from 2011-18 (higher number is better)
|
Offense
|
Rushing Off
|
Passing Off
|
||||||||||||
|
Year
|
Tm
|
Role
|
Yds
|
Pts
|
TO
|
Att
|
Yds
|
TD
|
Y/A
|
FL
|
Att
|
Yds
|
TD
|
Int
|
|
2011
|
CIN
|
OC
|
20
|
18
|
9
|
10
|
19
|
21
|
27
|
10
|
20
|
20
|
13
|
12
|
|
2012
|
CIN
|
OC
|
22
|
12
|
17
|
17
|
18
|
18
|
20
|
17
|
19
|
17
|
7
|
18
|
|
2013
|
CIN
|
OC
|
10
|
6
|
25
|
8
|
18
|
13
|
28
|
16
|
12
|
8
|
3
|
24
|
|
2014
|
WAS
|
HC
|
13
|
26
|
29
|
21
|
19
|
9
|
14
|
25
|
18
|
11
|
27
|
26
|
|
2015
|
WAS*
|
HC
|
17
|
10
|
15
|
14
|
20
|
20
|
30
|
22
|
20
|
11
|
13
|
9
|
|
2016
|
WAS*
|
HC
|
3
|
12
|
15
|
27
|
21
|
6
|
9
|
13
|
7
|
2
|
14
|
14
|
|
2017
|
WAS
|
HC
|
16
|
16
|
26
|
24
|
27
|
21
|
30
|
30
|
18
|
12
|
9
|
16
|
|
2018
|
WAS
|
HC
|
28
|
29
|
11
|
14
|
17
|
20
|
18
|
1
|
26
|
28
|
28
|
22
|
*Did not call plays
The 2019 season was removed from the table due to Gruden coaching only five games. He gave up playcalling duties following his first season in Washington, and after Sean McVay left for the Los Angeles Rams prior to 2017, Gruden resumed a dual role. Even with McVay was calling the plays from week to week, it was still Gruden’s offensive system, and the head coach would occasionally have to steer McVay back on course. Kevin O’Connell served as the official offensive coordinator, which meant he focused mainly on helping design game plans from week to week and making sure players understood their roles as well as the concepts.
Gruden is a bright offensive mind with considerable success, although he never has been able to consistently produce a dominant offense in the NFL. The most successful campaign came with McVay making the in-game decisions. Gruden wasn’t able to overcome suspect quarterback play when presented to him. He made a mess of the three-way situation with Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy in 2014, and we saw four actual quarterbacks throw passes in the 2018 hot start that quickly turned south after Alex Smith broke his leg. While it is fair to wonder what could have been with a healthy Smith, and/or whether the Redskins would be on a different trajectory had RG3 not battled so many injuries, here we are…
Gruden enters the 2020 season with a veteran journeyman in Nick Foles and a promising 2019 rookie in Gardner Minshew as his primary options at quarterback. There may be politics at play that force Foles into the starting lineup, but Minshew clearly was the better quarterback when given the chance.
The offense has roots of West Coast football, and Foles thrived in modified WCOs while with the Philadelphia Eagles. Perhaps this gives him a leg up on Minshew, but the 2019 John DeFilippo system was also carved out of a West Coast bedrock, and Foles was a dud.
Table: Jay Gruden playcalling breakdown
|
Rk
|
Year
|
Team
|
Rush Att/G
|
Pass Att/G
|
Plays/G
|
Run %
|
Pass %
|
|
21
|
2011
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
28.4
|
33.4
|
61.9
|
46.0%
|
54.0%
|
|
19
|
2012
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
26.9
|
33.8
|
60.6
|
44.3%
|
55.7%
|
|
22
|
2013
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
30.1
|
36.7
|
66.8
|
45.0%
|
55.0%
|
|
17
|
2014
|
Washington Redskins
|
25.1
|
34.2
|
59.3
|
42.3%
|
57.7%
|
|
14
|
2017
|
Washington Redskins
|
25.1
|
33.8
|
58.8
|
42.6%
|
57.4%
|
|
23
|
2018
|
Washington Redskins
|
26.0
|
32.0
|
58.0
|
44.9%
|
55.1%
|
Gruden prefers to set up the pass with the run and remain committed to the ground game. Even though he has passed more than run by 9 or more percentage points in each of those seasons, this is what balanced and committed to running looks like in the modern era. For example, only two teams (Seattle and Tennessee) ran more than passed in 2018 (Gruden’s last full year as a playcaller). Just Buffalo ran more than passed in 2017 … you get the point. Gruden’s patterns of playcalling over the course of a season from one year to the next have been remarkably consistent and create a much-needed identity for the Jags.
Jacksonville has the sixth-youngest roster and the second-fewest cap dollars available entering 2020 free agency. Voiding the contract of defensive tackle Marcell Dareus will save $20 million, and the majority of the money is tied up in a defense that needs to be retooled. No team has more cap space allocated to its defense. On the offensive side, none of the core starters are free agents.
The offensive line needs some work, and much of it can come through maturation. Staying healthy also is key, which can be said for most teams but feels more imperative in this case. Both tackles are key pieces to the puzzle and have to improve — particularly 2019 second-round rookie RT Jawaan James’s penchant for mistakes.
Regardless of how the quarterback situation shakes out, Gruden has a young offense to shape to his ideals. We know what Foles is as a fantasy football option, and it hasn’t been pretty more often than not. Minshew has considerable upside but remains a backup option who has spot-start potential.
Running back Leonard Fournette struggled to be special on the ground most of the year and made up for it as a pass-catching machine for the Jaguars. He ran for 75 or more yards in five of 15 games. While Fournette had his moments, the LSU star scored just three rushing touchdowns and two came in one game. This could change with an upgrade among the receivers or by adding a running back whose game is built around this area of play. It begs the question if impending free-agent third-down back Chris Thompson will follow Gruden to Jacksonville. Fournette, in a vacuum, is rated as an RB2 with upside for more. Injury history and yet another offensive system to take in makes him somewhat risky, however.
[lawrence-related id=448436]
Wide receiver is on the rise but still could use an upgrade. DJ Chark Jr. was the best of the lot in fantasy and a surprise in his second year. He has A.J. Green-like qualities to his game and could be a stud in 2020. Keep him on your short list of players who have broken out but still have room for growth. Dede Westbrook’s physical skills and durability limit his overall potential, but there is still some potential for a stronger year in 2020. Treat him as a flex consideration or a depth addition. Other receivers, Chris Conley and Keelan Cole, flashed at times in 2019 but are not draft-worthy options in fantasy entering 2020.
Tight end has potential in 2019 rookie Josh Oliver (back). He finished the year on IR and is still learning the ropes as a project player. Provided his recovery is not problematic, pencil him in as a sneaky fantasy option in an offense that has preferred the tight end position throughout the years.
Gruden is not a flashy playcaller, nor does he tend to surprise a defense too often. His system is all about execution and consistency. Fournette should be the biggest winner of this system change. Picking up chunks of yardage on early downs helps make conversions easier, and it allows the offense to take shots down the field when the defense moves to a Cover 1 or Cover 0 to stop the run. Stability through experience will be Gruden’s most important contribution to the Jaguars in 2020.
Aside from the Philip Rivers uncertainty, the Chargers look to keep continuity with promoting Shane Steichen.
Oct. 30, 2019, the Los Angeles Chargers promoted Shane Steichen from quarterbacks coach to interim offensive coordinator after the firing of Ken Whisenhunt. Steichen was given the official title of OC just a few short months later.
The 2020 season will be his first full year with command of an NFL offense, and his tenure begins with the biggest question mark of all: What will the Chargers do at quarterback this offseason?
The 16-year veteran, 38-year-old Philip Rivers, incumbent is a free agent in March, and plenty of chatter suggests the Bolts will be moving on. Some reports point to the coaching staff’s affinity for veteran backup Tyrod Taylor as a stop-gap while grooming a rookie, and others float Tom Brady’s name about, although the door isn’t entirely closed on Rivers’ return.
[lawrence-related id=448436]
The second question of major importance: Will Melvin Gordon return as the primary running back? A follow-up has to be: Do the Chargers even want him back with the way Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson played in 2019?
Aside from quarterback and running back, the Chargers also face the potential loss of talented but oft-injured tight end Hunter Henry. Wide receiver Travis Benjamin is a free agent, too, but he’s far from being irreplaceable.
Steichen, 34, cut his teeth in the NFL under Norv Turner in San Diego during the 2011 and ’12 seasons as a defensive assistant. He moved over to the offensive side of the ball in 2013 with Rob Chudzinski in Cleveland as a quality control coach before returning to the Chargers in 2014 under the Mike McCoy regime to hold the same title through the 2015 season. In ’16, he took on the role of quarterbacks coach until his aforementioned promotion to interim OC. Surviving multiple years and positions under two coaches speaks volumes to the respect inside the ranks for Steichen.
While we have a limited view into how he will call plays and their efficacy, some basic themes we should continue to see in 2020 include a commitment to running the ball, the use of play-action passing, an emphasis on downfield attempts, and an aggressive nature.
Over the final eight games, Steichen’s offense scored more points, managed more first downs, totaled more yards, and firmly established a ground attack significantly more dangerous than that of his predecessor. Gordon finally rounding into game form played a factor in the second-half success.
|
Week
|
Opp |
Pts
|
1stD
|
TotYd
|
PassY
|
RushY
|
TO
|
|
1
|
Indianapolis Colts |
30
|
25
|
435
|
310
|
125
|
2
|
|
2
|
Detroit Lions |
10
|
21
|
424
|
287
|
137
|
2
|
|
3
|
Houston Texans |
20
|
22
|
366
|
293
|
73
|
1
|
|
4
|
Miami Dolphins |
30
|
24
|
390
|
311
|
79
|
0
|
|
5
|
Denver Broncos |
13
|
19
|
246
|
211
|
35
|
3
|
|
6
|
Pittsburgh Steelers |
17
|
23
|
348
|
316
|
32
|
3
|
|
7
|
Tennessee Titans |
20
|
24
|
365
|
326
|
39
|
1
|
|
8
|
Chicago Bears |
17
|
11
|
231
|
195
|
36
|
1
|
| Whisenhunt averages |
19.6
|
21.1
|
350.6
|
281.1
|
69.5
|
1.6
|
|
|
9
|
Green Bay Packers |
26
|
24
|
442
|
283
|
159
|
0
|
|
10
|
Oakland Raiders |
24
|
26
|
315
|
169
|
146
|
3
|
|
11
|
Kansas City Chiefs |
17
|
23
|
438
|
345
|
93
|
4
|
|
12
|
Bye Week | ||||||
|
13
|
Denver Broncos |
20
|
17
|
359
|
244
|
115
|
2
|
|
14
|
Jacksonville Jaguars |
45
|
27
|
525
|
330
|
195
|
0
|
|
15
|
Minnesota Vikings |
10
|
17
|
345
|
283
|
62
|
7
|
|
16
|
Oakland Raiders |
17
|
21
|
284
|
265
|
19
|
0
|
|
17
|
Kansas City Chiefs |
21
|
25
|
366
|
258
|
108
|
2
|
| Steichen averages |
22.5
|
22.5
|
384.3
|
272.1
|
112.1
|
2.3
|
|
| Differential |
13%
|
7.4%
|
8.8%
|
-3.2%
|
38%
|
0.28
|
|
The passing yardage per game went down ever so slightly, and the turnovers went up — largely fueled by a total offensive implosion vs. the Vikings. The offense didn’t turn it over at all in three games under Steichen vs. once under Whis.
Rivers attempted more yards per pass, averaged nearly a yard per completion more, and slightly improved his completion-to-touchdown ratio during his eight games with Steichen. Unfortunately, those increases came at the detriment of throwing an interception at nearly twice the frequency and a smidge lower completion rate.
[lawrence-related id=448688]
Pushing the ball down the field tends to increase mistakes, and the Chargers played underwhelming football on the defensive side of the ball, which put Rivers in a hole more often.
One thing Steichen learned from Chudzinski was flexibility in catering the system to the personnel rather than trying to force players into a rigid design. We’ve seen Chud move from city to city to work wonders with varied types of passers. There’s obviously going to be a much different offensive approach if Taylor starts instead of Rivers, or if a rookie is the top quarterback. Experience handling this kind of flexibility can make a world of difference for fantasy purposes, even if it can make projections infinitely more troublesome.
Soooo … there’s a ton of potential turnover of key members of personnel at crucial positions. Given all of the volatility, specifically at quarterback, it isn’t worthwhile to provide any kind of definitive fantasy takes.
Speaking in generalities is the best course of action at this time. The quarterback position will be asked to operate with less volume but more chances for dynamic plays. This kind of play tends to result in erratic fantasy results.
Running back will be the focal point for fantasy football purposes coming from this offense. It’s anyone’s guess as to which backs will be deployed, and there’s always an outside shot Ekeler and Gordon are gone. The former is a restricted free agent, so his options are limited, and the Chargers get first right to refusal. We can reasonably expect RB2 production out of the most prolific player from this backfield.
Wide receiver: Little should change in terms of the roles and values. Keenan Allen figures to remain the primary possession target, while Mike Williams’ downfield skills make him an inconsistent No. 3 fantasy option. Allen’s role may remain intact, but his fantasy returns are in question with a looming quarterback change. He and Rivers have been a consistently reliable tandem in fantasy, and any change on the quarterback end of such an equation makes for uncertainty. Talent alone, Allen is a strong WR2 or low-tier No. 1 in PPR.
Two of the top three tight ends are unrestricted free agents come March. There will be plenty of attention for Henry’s services on the open market, and reports suggest the Bolts could place the transition tag on him. This allows other teams to negotiate and gives LA the right to match any deal, but there isn’t compensation in return should he leave. It is also around $1.8 million cheaper than using the franchise tag.
Expected improvement on defense this season from the Chargers, and count on the offense being able to run the ball because of it. The passing game could be in flux if Rivers doesn’t return, and even if he does, we’re talking about an age-39 season after throwing 20 picks in 2019.
The Carolina Panthers turn to Baylor’s Matt Rhule to revive a stagnant franchise. What does it mean for fake football?
After 12 games, the Carolina Panthers fired two-time AP Coach of the Year Ron Rivera and then cleaned house following the season finale. In comes first-time NFL head coach Matt Rhule on the heels of a pair of successful rebuilds at Temple and Baylor. Along with him from the collegiate ranks comes a rookie offensive coordinator in LSU’s Joe Brady, only 30 years old.
Brady spent two years as an offensive assistant to Sean Payton in New Orleans immediately prior to the stint at LSU.
For now, the focus will remain on what we can expect, even if nothing appears set in stone.
Themes we do know:
Things we don’t have answers for yet:
As mentioned, what do do with Newton is the No. 1 priority. NFL.com media insider Ian Rapoport believes Newton will indeed be traded. He carries a team-high salary cap figure of $21.1 million, but Carolina will take only a $2 million hit in dead cap if he’s no longer in the team’s plans.
Freeing up $19 million will go a long way in making Carolina competitive in spending during free agency, should the front office choose to operate in such a manner. This franchise currently projects to have roughly $30 million in free money to spend, which doesn’t include inking its rookie class and/or extending players currently under contract. While the latter typically offers cap relief in the short term by kicking the can down the road, it still requires a commitment. And Carolina is married to Rhule for seven years, financially anyway. The Panthers are closer to being a playoff contender than not, and it isn’t going to take more than an offseason or two, if all is done properly. Rhule has proven to be adept at rebuilding in short order.
[lawrence-related id=448436]
In 2020, offensive free agents of note include starting left guard Daryl Williams and depth WR Jarius Wright — not exactly irreplaceable components. The Panthers have to improve an offensive line that allowed an unsustainable 58 sacks, which tied for the most in the league. In the 4-2 start to the year, this line surrendered only 16 sacks. There are plenty of factors at play in the downturn — inexperience, suspect starters, poor playcalling decisions. After all, in the final four games, Scott Turner was calling plays for the first time in his NFL career.
The retirement of star linebacker Luke Kuechly is a game-changer on defense, and cornerback James Bradberry is a free agent. Bloated contracts for Dontari Poe and Kawann Short should be of concern.
Shedding serious cap this offseason isn’t out of the question, and the 2020 starting lineup on both sides are poised to look much different than what we saw from this 5-11 team. Despite entering 2019 as the eighth-oldest roster in a year that was built up to contend now, this should become one of the youngest teams to match its coaching staff.
Brady’s role as a passing game coordinator during LSU’s dominant 2019 season no doubt creates optimism, but it also brings serious question marks in his first year as a playcaller. The Tigers ran a blended system, which most are these days, and incorporated pro-style elements. This is what gamers should expect to see from the Panthers in 2020 — whether it will work well enough is yet to be seen.
Between Brady’s flexibility by claiming he doesn’t even have a system of his own, and Rhule’s past success with a ground-based RPO system, one can safely expect this will be the general idea of the offensive approach. Create confusion to take advantage of McCaffrey’s abilities in space, quick-hit passing to utilize the athletic traits of WRs D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, and keep defenses guessing as to what is next. Sound familiar? It’s basically the offense (conceptually, anyway) of Baltimore Ravens coordinator Greg Roman.
Contract stuff aside, a healthy Newton would be an awesome fit for this system. However, his shoulder/ankle injury history, plus the contract concerns, create uncertainty.
Don’t rule out this being a location for a possible return of Colin Kaepernick.
There is too much at stake with the outcome of the quarterback decision to give any kind of rational valuation.
McCaffrey is the only player that should be viewed as a “system-proof” and be given the benefit of the doubt for 2020 drafts. Even still, he comes with risk after touching the ball an average of 364 times the past two years and coming off of what almost definitely will go down as a career season.
Moore and Samuel figure win the top two spots at wideout, and Ian Thomas has flashed a few times should he be the ultimate replacement for Olsen at tight end.
The most important aspect of this roster to watch obviously is quarterback, and this coaching staff has to decide if grooming Will Grier is the answer, or if Kyle Allen showed enough, assuming Newton is not in their plans. There’s always the draft or open market, as well.
Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy has turned to veteran playcaller Bill Lazor to lead the offense in 2020.
Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy’s pass offensive success under Andy Reid hasn’t thoroughly translated to the Windy City over two seasons, and in 2020, long-time NFL coach Bill Lazor will take over for Mark Helfrich as the new offensive coordinator.
Lazor’s immediate plan will focus on getting quarterback Mitchell Trubisky to take a massive step forward with his command of the offense and overcome a penchant to screw up what should be the “easy plays.” While nothing is cake in the NFL, Trubisky has notoriously struggled to get the most out of what a defense hands him. He tends to make difficult scenarios seem easier than they should, and it all appears to come at the sacrifice of conventional advancements. Consistently being better will go a long way for how efficient and effective the Bears can be on offense from week to week. Improving his mechanics will go far in limiting wasted opportunities.
[lawrence-related id=448436]
Before looking ahead, it helps to understand how we came to this point in time. Nagy, as mentioned, is a student of Reid’s West Coast-based spread system, and while we have seen moments of Reid’s coaching genius bleed through into Nagy’s designs, putting it together on a weekly basis has been a real struggle.
Replacing Helfrich with Lazor feels like one of those moves out of a sense of urgency to make a move rather than give it one more try to improve with the continuity of having Trubisky in the same system for a third straight season. Keep in mind, Trubisky didn’t have extensive quarterback experience entering the NFL. It was not meant to be, and Lazor will get a chance, in conjunction with new quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo to get Trubisky on track.
A former three-year starting signal-caller at Cornell, Lazor was once a quarterbacks coach in Philadelphia (2013) under the Chip Kelly regime. He doesn’t have a direct tie to Reid. However, he has worked with gifted minds in Mike Holmgren, Marvin Lewis, Joe Gibbs and Dan Reeves. While all of those men but Lewis cut their teeth on the offensive side of the ball, having the chance to learn defensive tendencies under the former Cincinnati Bengals head coach was a plus for Lazor’s development.
Despite all of the that experience under proven coaches, Lazor was unable to survive two full seasons in Miami as the offensive coordinator, getting fired Nov. 30, 2015. He’d become the quarterbacks coach in Cincinnati the next year and take over for the fired Ken Zampese in September of 2017. Lazor managed to make it through the two full seasons before being dismissed with the end of the Lewis regime in Cincy. Lazor sat out of football in 2019.
Lazor likes to incorporate West Coast elements into a spread system, similarly to how Reid designs calls. The three-plus years of calling plays is an advantage, even though the results weren’t exciting. It is unclear how much of a role in actually calling plays and scripting game plans Lazor will have in relation to Nagy.
During the 2017 season, Lazor’s Bengals threw 57.5 percent of the offensive snaps, or the 12th-highest percentage of all teams. This number grew to 60.2 percent in 2018, ranking eighth. One upside to the increase in passing attempts was an extremely efficient backfield, and RB Joe Mixon led the AFC in rushing yardage.
In 2018, when Cincinnati ran the ball, 67 percent of the plays came from three-wide, one-TE sets, with 22 percent of the action being worked out of a two-tight end formation. The passing attack ran 79 percent of plays out of the 11 personnel grouping (three wide, 1 TE).
Table: Bill Lazor team rankings as offensive coordinator (lower number is better)
|
Offense
|
Rushing Off
|
Passing Off
|
||||||||||||
|
Year
|
Tm
|
Role
|
Yds
|
Pts
|
TO
|
Att
|
Yds
|
TD
|
Y/A
|
FL
|
Att
|
Yds
|
TD
|
Int
|
|
2014
|
MIA
|
OC
|
14
|
11
|
13
|
22
|
12
|
14
|
2
|
19
|
12
|
17
|
12
|
8
|
|
2015
|
MIA
|
OC
|
26
|
27
|
8
|
32
|
23
|
16
|
9
|
2
|
17
|
19
|
19
|
11
|
|
2017
|
CIN
|
OC
|
32
|
26
|
19
|
29
|
31
|
28
|
29
|
22
|
25
|
27
|
12
|
11
|
|
2018
|
CIN
|
OC
|
26
|
17
|
5
|
26
|
21
|
16
|
8
|
1
|
18
|
24
|
16
|
18
|
A consistent theme is the need for efficiency from the running game to generate meaningful yardage, and despite being a pass-centric offense, the aerial yardage returns haven’t been impressive, either. Protecting the football has been a regular aspect of his teams.
Right guard Rashaad Coward and his backup, Ted Larsen, are both set to become free agents in March, but Coward is of the restricted variety. The core of this team returns unscathed, and Chicago should not have to make major cuts to sign rookies and look at the open market. The offensive line will need to be improved after giving up 12th-most sacks (45) in 2019. Some of that can be done via coaching and playcalling. More concerning, perhaps, would be the 3.7 yards per carry averaged by this rushing game. It tied for third worst in the league, and it was quite apparent rookie David Montgomery needs the blocking to improve. He is an NFL-caliber talent but isn’t the type to create yardage on his own.
[lawrence-related id=448644]
An upgrade at tight end is a must. This offensive system is at its best when the position finds success. Trey Burton’s experience in a similar offense is encouraging, but he hasn’t been able to stay on the field. The same injury concerns go for Adam Shaheen. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Bears make a bid to sign former Lazor tight end Tyler Eifert in free agency. Other options could include Eric Ebron, Vance McDonald, Austin Hooper or Hunter Henry.
Another receiver will help, but getting the most out of soon-to-be third-year wideout Anthony Miller will be the key. If he can stay healthy and play at his best, Allen Robinson will have a strong complementary target by his side. It will be intriguing to see the development of 2019 rookie WR Riley Ridley over the course of the upcoming offseason.
Backup quarterback Chase Daniel is a free agent and didn’t provide much of a spark when given the chance in 2020. Andy Dalton spent three years with Lazor in Cincinnati and is on the verge of being released. Could Chicago bring him in to compete with Trubisky, or at least help teach the system?
As discussed, the theme of Lazor’s duties will center on getting the most out of Trubisky. Look for more short-area passing to get the ball out quicker and prevent him from having to do too much. Expect the Bears to let Trubisky utilize his mobility more than he has to date, and he could be sneaky in fantasy because of added value on the turf (think Josh Allen’s surprising value). Nevertheless, trusting all of it coming together in the first year is understandably a gamble most owners aren’t going to be keen on taking in 2020 fantasy drafts. Trubisky remains a low-end QB2 who will flash a few times at worst and start to show signs of being a fringe starter at his best.
An emphasis on the ground game could be in store, despite the limited utilization of the position in past stops. With a few tweaks, Chicago’s defense can get back on the right path.
Montgomery has RB2 potential and is a capable dual-threat back. Given the limited money tied up with him and Tarik Cohen, it’s not a crazy idea to think Chicago could trade for Arizona Cardinals back David Johnson. He and Montgomery offer similar skills, but at least Johnson has proven capable of playing at an elite level in the NFL. Much could change in this scenario before the dust settles. Presuming Montgomery is indeed the primary back in 2020, draft him as a flex and be prepared for another disappointing season.
Cohen should benefit from the move and is a PPR flex in traditional formats. Of course, a move, such as adding Johnson, would hamper this outlook.
At receiver, we witnessed Robinson return nicely on a WR3 or flex fantasy draft investment and post quality No. 2 stats in standard (No. 7 PPR). He finally started to show signs of his pre-ACL tear self. Even though there is always concern in changing offensive systems, it is clear Trubisky favors Robinson over all others.
Miller’s season didn’t start off well, and the 2019 second-year receiver struggled to overcome offseason rehab that lingered late into the summer. He finally picked up the pace from Weeks 11-15 to give a glimmer of hope that we’re poised to see a true breakout from the talented Memphis product. Keep in mind, he scored seven times as a 2018 rookie. Miller is a risk-reward decision as a No. 3 target come 2020 fantasy drafts.
Ridley didn’t really get a chance to showcase his abilities, landing only six catches as a rookie. The Georgia standout effectively red-shirted in 2019 and will be in the mix for an increased role in a three-wide base, as well as expanded packages. He’s no more than a late-round flier in conventional drafts at this stage, yet a strong summer could bump him up considerably.
There’s nothing of value to be found in the current crop of tight ends, and unless the Bears drastically upgrade the position, gamers can skip over this position for all intents and purposes. Track the personnel decisions before putting the final nail in this coffin.
With regards to Lazor being the right hire, his pedigree is impressive. One has to question whether the relative lack of results were more his fault or due to having inferior talent at his disposal.
Pat Shurmur brings a proven system and results to Denver’s young offense.
Sitting on what must already feel like a lukewarm seat, Denver Broncos head coach Vic Fangio turned the offense over to 21-year NFL coaching veteran Pat Shurmur after firing Rich Scangarello after his first season as a pro playcaller.
Shurmur, 54, coached tight ends, offensive linemen and quarterbacks from 1999-2008 during his first stint in Philadelphia for Andy Reid. It led to an offensive coordinator gig with the St. Louis Rams (2009-10) under Steve Spagunolo, which he managed to spin into the head coach of the Cleveland (2011-12).
Following Shurmur’s firing in Cleveland, the Eagles rehired him as the offensive coordinator, this time under Chip Kelly, and Shurmur was promoted to interim head coach for the regular-season finale after Kelly’s dismissal. Two years of coaching tight ends and coordinating the offense in Minnesota was parlayed into running the New York Giants (2018-19).
Shurmur having cut his teeth under renowned offensive minds in Reid and Kelly is reflective in his West Coast themes and creatively aggressive play designs. He consistently has involved tight ends and running backs in the aerial calls. The 2019 Giants ran three-wide 59 percent of the time on running plays, which is utilized to help keep defenses guessing since the passing game operated in this same “11 personnel” design a hearty 82 percent of the snaps.
The next highest percentage (12) passing plays came from the 12 grouping, which is a two-tight end base, whereas 26 percent of the rushing snaps came from this formation. Denver passed only 61 percent of the time from three-wide and ran 59 percent of its ground carries from the same formation for a more balanced approach. Of all offensive plays, 52 percent of Denver’s 2019 snaps came from 11 personnel, compared to a league-high 74 percent from the Giants.
[lawrence-related id=448436]
Expect the offense to push the ball down the field. Denver managed 46 completions of 20-plus yards in 2019, while New York posted 54. More impressively, the Giants ranked second behind the ultra-explosive Kansas City (the Reid connection) with 15 touchdown passes of 20 or more yards. KC tallied 19 of them.
Shurmur likes to set up the run with the pass when all is working properly, and he’s fond of utilizing play-action. The receiving route tree will focus heavily on crossing and clearing combinations, wheels, and ample shallow routes to serve as checkdowns. Look for a marked increase in short-area throws to help the offensive line not have to hold blocks as long and to get his QB into a rhythm.
Denver has no notable free agents on offense, and the Broncos will have approximately the 11th-most salary-cap space of all teams entering the 2020 open market. They can save roughly $10 million with the release of Joe Flacco, assuming he passes a physical, and Von Miller’s deal is in dire need of being restructured. This is a young roster with plenty of starters returning after being battle-tested in 2018 and ’19.
The Broncos need to add a proven receiver to help Courtland Sutton after trading away Emmanuel Sanders in 2019. Free agency features several veteran names, including Sanders (improbable), A.J. Green (intriguing), Randall Cobb (uninspiring), Robby Anderson (too expensive?), Nelson Agholor (knows the system), Amari Cooper (probably sticking in Dallas) and Breshad Perriman (late-season star with upside).
The tight end position has an up-and-coming weapon in 2019 first-round pick Noah Fant, which bodes well for Shurmur’s history of utilizing the position in the aerial attack.
Table: Pat Shurmur’s offensive rankings (Lower the number the better)
|
Offense
|
Rushing Off
|
Passing Off
|
||||||||||||
|
Year
|
Tm
|
Role
|
Yds
|
Pts
|
TO
|
Att
|
Yds
|
TD
|
Y/A
|
FL
|
Att
|
Yds
|
TD
|
Int
|
|
2009
|
STL
|
OC
|
29
|
32
|
27
|
22
|
20
|
32
|
11
|
22
|
16
|
28
|
29
|
28
|
|
2010
|
STL
|
OC
|
26
|
26
|
8
|
14
|
25
|
24
|
31
|
2
|
5
|
21
|
25
|
13
|
|
2011
|
CLE
|
HC
|
29
|
30
|
4
|
21
|
28
|
32
|
31
|
5
|
11
|
24
|
27
|
8
|
|
2012
|
CLE
|
HC
|
25
|
24
|
17
|
24
|
24
|
13
|
21
|
9
|
13
|
19
|
28
|
26
|
|
2013
|
PHI
|
OC
|
2
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
16
|
27
|
9
|
5
|
3
|
|
2014
|
PHI
|
OC
|
5
|
3
|
32
|
7
|
9
|
5
|
15
|
31
|
5
|
6
|
12
|
32
|
|
2015
|
PHI
|
OC/HC
|
12
|
13
|
29
|
11
|
14
|
10
|
21
|
28
|
6
|
12
|
20
|
26
|
|
2016
|
MIN
|
OC
|
28
|
23
|
7
|
25
|
32
|
26
|
32
|
24
|
12
|
18
|
21
|
2
|
|
2017
|
MIN
|
OC
|
11
|
10
|
3
|
2
|
7
|
7
|
23
|
7
|
21
|
11
|
12
|
2
|
|
2018
|
NYG
|
HC
|
17
|
16
|
11
|
29
|
24
|
16
|
10
|
8
|
9
|
11
|
21
|
12
|
|
2019
|
NYG
|
HC
|
23
|
18
|
30
|
29
|
19
|
22
|
7
|
32
|
9
|
18
|
5
|
25
|
Table: Pat Shurmur’s offensive playcalling ratio (2015-19)
|
Rk
|
Year
|
Team
|
Ru Att
|
Ru Att/G
|
Pass Att
|
Pass Att/G
|
Plays
|
Plays/G
|
Run %
|
Pass %
|
|
16
|
2015
|
Philadelphia Eagles
|
442
|
27.6
|
623
|
38.9
|
1065
|
66.6
|
41.5%
|
58.5%
|
|
9
|
2016
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
380
|
23.8
|
588
|
36.8
|
968
|
60.5
|
39.3%
|
60.7%
|
|
28
|
2017
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
501
|
31.3
|
527
|
32.9
|
1028
|
64.3
|
48.7%
|
51.3%
|
|
5
|
2018
|
New York Giants
|
354
|
22
|
583
|
36
|
937
|
59
|
37.8%
|
62.2%
|
|
3
|
2019
|
New York Giants
|
362
|
23
|
607
|
38
|
969
|
61
|
37.4%
|
62.6%
|
Lock needs more receivers, and the offensive line could stand to be upgraded. As previously mentioned, getting the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible will be a focus of the coaching designs. The jump in Year 1 under Shurmur could be substantial in fantasy, mainly because of the aggressive nature of how he calls games. Lock is a midrange QB2 with huge upside if the Broncos can add just one more talented pass-catching option. Expect on the Missouri standout to look like a stud a few weeks and struggle to be relevant in plenty of others.
Lindsay and Freeman are the presumed top backs, but there’s no guarantee either is entrenched in the lineup. This backfield could see an uptick in passing work in 2020. Last year, Lindsay (48 targets, 35 catches) and Freeman (50 targets, 43 catches) were heavily involved due to the lack of reliable receivers after the Sanders trade. Neither of them is an ideal fit for this spread system, but Freeman is a better receiver than many seem to recognize, and Lindsay continues to plug away enough to be heavily involved without another player (rookie?) being added to the mix. Long story short, this backfield will require a wait-and-see approach before a firm fantasy prognostication can be made.
Sutton is well on his way to playing like a true No. 1 receiver, unless he, for whatever reason, struggles to fit into this system — seems unlikely given his maturation through two NFL systems in as many years. His floor is high, and Sutton’s outlook is as bright as any third-year starter’s could be in a fresh situation. Think WR2 for now in fantasy.
Maybe a new system will do wonders for getting DaeSean Hamilton’s promising career back on the right track. He regressed under Scangarello and is going to be a wild card under Shurmur.
Fant landed 40 of his 67 targets as a rookie in 2019, going for 562 yards and three touchdowns, averaging an awesome 14.1 yards per grab. Of the top 25 in fantasy points, he was No. 2 in yards per reception, behind the New Orleans Saints’ Jared Cook (16.4). Fant finished with the 14th-most PPR points among tight ends who made at least 12 appearances. Given the emphasis placed on the position in Shurmur’s offense, it’s not crazy to envision Fant doubling his 40 receptions as a sophomore. Even splitting the difference would put him in the conversation of being a top-five tight end if he can sustain such ease of yardage generation.
Wholesale changes in Washington’s organization has the scent of optimism in the air for the first time in ages.
After a nine-year run with the Carolina Panthers, Ron Rivera replaces both fired head coach Jay Gruden and interim Bill Callahan. Two Associated Press NFL Coach of the Year Awards and a Super Bowl loss later, Rivera hit the open market after a dismissal of his own following a 5-7 start.
Agreeing to coach the Redskins comes with more scrutiny than Rivera ever encountered with Carolina, and he’ll have to contend with the constant meddling of team owner Daniel Snyder.
Scott Turner has joined the staff as the offensive coordinator, and Jack Del Rio came aboard as the mastermind of the defensive side of the ball. Before we delve into the expectations, here’s what the Washington team faces in free agency:
Scherff quietly put together a Pro Bowl season, which ended on the Reserve/Injured list due to elbow and shoulder injuries — the latter requiring surgery. It is anyone’s guess as to how Washington handles his situation.
Thompson is an oft-injured third-down back whose chance with the Redskins came solely because of the fired Gruden, and it will be interesting to see how much the new regime values Thompson’s skill set.
[lawrence-related id=448436]
Speaking of valuing past contributions, Peterson continues to play at a respectable, effective level and wants to extend his career. Perhaps he has enough good will in the Snyder camp to survive the coaching and front office moves. Given Derrius Guice’s inability to stay on the field, and an unanswered question in running back Bryce Love (knee), this backfield could go in a number of ways. Does Washington try to lure a free agent, such as Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt, Kenyan Drake or Derrick Henry?
Keenum doesn’t really factor into the plans of the future, but it’s fair to note Rivera won’t automatically hand the starting job to 2019 first-round pick Dwayne Haskins, even though no one really should believe that comment. Quarterback Alex Smith (leg) remains under contract, although his return appears to be a long shot. Releasing Smith would blow up Washington’s salary cap ($32.2 million in dead money).
None of that addresses what will happen with disgruntled left tackle Trent Williams. Expect an earnest effort to rebuild the relationship as Rivera wants to see the star blocker in uniform for 22020. No Bruce Allen helps ease the tensions a good deal.
Washington is projected to have approximately $42 million to spend (expected $199 million cap) and could attract more proven talent with Rivera’s resume serving as perceived stability from a franchise that has been anything but enticing in recent times. The cap savings for releasing LB Ryan Kerrigan is $11.7 million, should the brass choose to go that direction, and cutting former Rivera standout cornerback Josh Norman would free up $12.5 million.
The son of former NFL and Washington head coach Norv Turner, the 37-year-old comes over from Carolina after he served as Rivera’s quarterbacks coach in 2018 and ’19. He previously was a quality control coach for Rivera (2011-12), as well as being a receivers coach in Cleveland and a quarterbacks coach for the Minnesota Vikings over a three-year span.
As a child, Turner spent every free moment watching and learning from his father. This will mark the first time in his blossoming coaching career as a full-fledged offensive coordinator after a four-game window to close out Carolina’s season as the interim OC after Rivera was fired. It’s unfair to hold any of the stats against him, because the Panthers’ quarterback situation was abysmal, and the defense consistently failed the offense. Wipe the slate clean and give him the benefit of the doubt with a full offseason and fresh cast with which to work.
While Scott came up the hard way through the coaching ranks, not automatically riding his father’s coattails, it would be foolish to believe he hasn’t absorbed serious influences from his dad’s style of calling plays. The elder Turner has been known for a potent running game that relies on establishing the ground attack in order to create success via vertical passing.
The running backs are poised to haul in plenty of passes, and play-action throws will be a staple in trying to catch the defense out of position. Turner will look to create plays with unique, aggressive concepts and utilize the athleticism of his playmakers in various ways (see WR Curtis Samuel rushing more frequently as an example).
Tight ends have long been a focal point of the Turner family designs, and it’s a position that has plagued Washington in recent years. Vernon Davis is a 36-year-old impending free agent, whose season ended on the shelf, and Jordan Reed is arguably the least durable player in the entire NFL.
Cam Newton found immediate success in his first year with Turner as his positional coach, and the target is to fast-track Haskins entering his second pro season. The questions along the line, in the backfield, at tight end, and regarding receivers behind Terry McLaurin stepping up creates considerable downside for Haskins. He profiles as no better than a midrange backup in the best-case scenario.
There is too much uncertainty in the backfield at present time to make any kind of decisive conclusions. Guice has RB2 potential, provided the line plays well and he escapes the injury bug. Love is a wild card after missing his entire rookie year as he rehabbed a torn ACL suffered late in his collegiate career. Peterson and Thompson should be considered outsiders looking in until further notice.
McLaurin’s route-running skills and vertical ability will fit in nicely with Turner’s preferred designs. There is legitimate potential for a WR1 season out of the soon-to-be second-year receiver. He’s more safely drafted as a high-upside No. 2 given the major changes around him and playing in his third system in the last three years, dating back to Ohio State.
Steven Sims Jr. flashed game-breaking skills and an adept level of awareness in the red zone late in 2019. He will contend for the primary slot role in the offseason.
Wideout Paul Richardson has been a disappointment after landing a five-year deal worth $40 million in 2018. His release would cost the Redskins $6 million in dead money.
Kelvin Harmon, a big-bodied 2019 rookie, will be given a long look in the offseason, and there are a few receivers on the market this March who figure to be in the mix as “pieces of the puzzle” types.
Tight end is anyone’s guess with Eric Ebron, Vance McDonald, Tyler Eifert and Hunter Henry being the most appealing names. The draft is a possibility, and Reed remains under contract for 2020 at this point.
On defense, the addition of Del Rio to Rivera’s staff illustrates an emphasis on improving this side of the ball, but the personnel is likely to face significant changes. Having the No. 2 overall pick that could (should) be spent on Ohio State defensive end Chase Young helps, but one rookie isn’t going to make Washington a fantasy stalwart in 2020 after finishing 18th in conventional scoring this season. There’s enough talent here to treat Washington as a matchup play or a second defense if that’s your thing on draft day (hint: it shouldn’t ever be anyone’s thing on draft day in conventional leagues).
