The New York Mets and Miami Marlins meet Thursday for Opening Day. First pitch at loanDepot park in Miami is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023. Mets won the season series 13-6 in 2022.
The Mets made some bold moves during the offseason, including the signing of free-agent RHPs Justin Verlander and Japanese import Kodai Senga, as well as the re-signing of OF Brandon Nimmo. LHP Jose Quintana was an underrated signing, too, bolstering the pitching staff.
It wasn’t all great this offseason, however, as RP Edwin Diaz suffered a knee injury during a Team Puerto Rico celebration at the World Baseball Classic, and the Mets now have no clear-cut closer at the back end of their bullpen.
That devastating injury happened on the field of the Marlins, and so did the Japan-USA WBC Final, an instant classic. It might be the best baseball we see in Miami all season.
The Marlins have the 3rd-longest odds to win the National League at +4000, despite adding reigning American League batting champ Luis Arraez at the top of the team’s order. This is a mish-mash batting order with a mix of veterans and younger players which could make some noise, but the pitching staff is just so-so after defending NL Cy Young winner RHP Sandy Alcantara.
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Mets at Marlins projected starters
RHP Max Scherzer vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara
Scherzer (11-5, 2.29 ERA) posted a 0.91 WHIP, 1.49 BB/9 and 10.71 K/9 across 145 1/3 IP in 23 starts in 2022.
- Went 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 32 K across 24 IP in 4 daytime starts in 2022
- Did not face the Marlins in 2022, but went 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA with 16 K across 2 starts in 2021 vs. Miami, including 1 CG
Alcantara (14-9, 2.28 ERA) posted an 0.98 WHIP, 1.97 BB/9 and 8.15 K/9 across 228 2/3 IP in 32 starts in 2022.
- Was in mid-season form in Grapefruit League spring play, going 1-0 in 4 starts with a 0.68 ERA in 13 1/3 IP with 15 K and a 0.75 WHIP
- Posted a 9-4 record and minuscule 1.64 ERA with a .191 opponent batting average (OBA) and 109 K across 121 IP in 16 home starts with 3 CG in 2022
- Went 1-1 with a 3.33 ERA and .248 OBA with 3 HR allowed and 21 K across 27 IP in 4 starts vs. NYM in 2022
Mets at Marlins odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:23 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+150) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Marlins 2
Moneyline
The METS (-125) are worth backing in the opener against the Marlins, as New York has a star-studded offense looking to hit the ground running.
This should be a lower-scoring game against Alcantara, the defending NL Cy Young winner, but look for New York to scratch ahead against the bullpen in this NL East showdown.
Run line/Against the spread
The METS -1.5 (+150) are worth a look on the run line, but go lightly with a half-unit play at best.
Again, it might start out as a well-pitched battle, as Scherzer and Alcantara keep the bats quiet early on. However, New York should be able to get to the bullpen late and push ahead by at least 2 runs, but expect to sweat it out.
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Over/Under
UNDER 6.5 (-105) is a low total, but we have pitching royalty on the bump for both teams. Scherzer and Alcantara should get off to a great start after the pomp and circumstance of Opening Day. These 2 pitchers are gifted, and should hold the score down significantly until we get some late offense against the bullpens.
We saw the Over go 12-6-1 in 2022 in 19 battles between these teams, so we’re going a little against the grain. That includes the total going high at a 6-2-1 clip in 9 battles in Miami. Still, the Under went 4-0 in Alcantara’s final 4 starts of 2022, and the Under went 5-0 in his final 5 home outings last season.
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