Tag: Mets Marlins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (20-25) and Miami Marlins (15-32) meet Sunday as they cap off a 3-game NL East series. First pitch at loanDepot park will be at 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 2-0

New York lost Friday’s series opener 8-0 and then coughed up a significant mid-game lead Saturday. The Mets are just 1-5 over their last 6 games and 2-7 across their last 9.

The Marlins were down 7-2 when they came up to bat in the home half of Saturday’s 7th inning. The Fish scored 3 in that frame and, after the Mets had gotten 2 more, would score 4 in the bottom of the 9th — getting a game-tying home run from 1B Josh Bell — to send the game into a 10th inning where they plated the winning run.

Mets at Marlins projected starters

LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Sixto Sanchez

Manaea (2-1, 3.05 ERA) is making his 9th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 41 2/3 innings.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 5-4 loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Monday
  • Career vs. Marlins: 0-1, 5.40 ERA (10 IP, 6 ER), 11 H, 2 BB, 14 K in 2 starts
  • Owns a 2.36 ERA over his last 26 2/3 IP

Sanchez (0-1, 5.96 ERA) is lined up for his 5th start and 12th appearance. He has a 1.63 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 5.2 K/9 in 22 2/3 innings.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 6-5 loss at Detroit Tigers Monday
  • Made his MLB debut in 2020 but was often injured over the next 3 years; this season marks his 1st MLB action since 2020

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Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:50 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Mets -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+110) | Marlins +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Marlins 4

Moneyline

Miami is 4-2 over its last 6 games against the Mets (-150).

Looking at win percentages, it would be a bit surprising not to see both teams end up better than where they stand now. So, depending on pitching match-ups both are partway to a green check mark in the near future.

But Manaea and the visiting nine may be getting too much of a nod in this series finale. PASS on the ML action and look to the run line for more value on the Marlins.

Run line/Against the spread

Since 2022, Manaea has registered a 3.54 ERA at home and a 5.42 mark on the road. He’s making this start on 5 days of rest, which is not at all his preferred interval (career on 4 days of rest: .689 OPS allowed; on 5 days: .780). Manaea is a fly-ball pitcher, and while the Miami offense is overall a bottom-third unit, it is one that has some near-league average indicators against such pitchers.

And in this series finale, Manaea is fronting a Mets bullpen in red-zone fatigue territory. Many of New York’s best 5 or 6 arms in the relief corps have pitched twice over the last 3 days.

Sixto Sanchez does not put the best foot forward for the Miami side, but a MARLINS +1.5 (-135) play is worth partial-unit action.

Over/Under

The Over has hit both days in this series and has cashed in 3 straight Mets-Fish games in Miami. The Over is 5-1 in New York’s last 6 and 10-3 across Miami’s last 13.

The overall pitching in this game makes for an Over lean. The New York bullpen and Sanchez are big parts of that analysis. Add in a Marlins offense that owns a high-contact .765 OPS over its last 8 home games.

BET THE OVER 7.5 (-115).

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New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (20-23) and Miami Marlins (13-32) meet Friday as they swing into a 3-game NL East Series. First pitch from loanDepot park is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: 1st meeting; the Mets took the 2023 series 9-4

New York is coming of a 6-5 extra-innings win over the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday. The Mets let a 4-3 lead slip away with a Philly marker in the bottom of the 9th, but then won the contest with a 2-for-1 exchange in the 11th. The victory snapped a 3-game losing streak.

The Marlins are back at home after a 3-game series at the Detroit Tigers. Miami took the last 2 games of that series, both in shutouts. Those shutouts came on the heels of the Fish clocking a Boeing 7.25 ERA over their previous 9 games.

Mets at Marlins projected starters

RHP Christian Scott vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo

Scott (0-1, 2.84 ERA) is making his 3rd start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 12 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 4-1 loss vs. Atlanta Braves Saturday
  • The 24-rookie made his Major League debut May 4; called up after logging a 5-start 3.20 ERA, 0.70 WHIP at Triple-A
  • Has never faced the Marlins

Luzardo (0-3, 5.97 ERA) is lined up for his 7th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 31 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 8-3 loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
  • Career vs. Mets: 2-2, 3.55 ERA (33 IP, 13 ER), 22 H, 17 BB, 37 K in 6 starts
  • Returned from the Injured List (elbow) in his Saturday start against Philadelphia

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Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 7:13 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Marlins +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Marlins 3

Moneyline

In their last 20 games against the Marlins, the Mets have gone 14-6. And New York is 3-1 in their last 4 games at Miami.

Including his 2 Major League starts, Scott has appeared in just 17 games above A-ball, so it would figure he’s due for some growing pains along the way. But Scott was sharp in his last — against a juggernaut Atlanta Braves offense — and is deserving of some respect for his command and control.

In last year’s season series, the Mets were a plus-26 in run differential. They have the better bullpen and figure to be a bit of an undervalued club at this point in mid-May.

Luzardo could find some fatigue troubles with this 2nd start back off the IL.

BACK NEW YORK (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

The Under is the lean for this game, so trying to get the Mets by with a cushion does not fit here. PASS.

Over/Under

Five of the last 6 series meetings in Miami have landed on the Under.

Luzardo’s season ERA has been hurt by an unfortunate .444 batting average on balls in play. Miami’s park profiles as a pitcher’s yard, and these are a pair of 2nd-division offenses.

TAKE THE UNDER 7.5 (-110).

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New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (70-81) and Miami Marlins (79-73) play the finale of a 3-game set at loanDepot park Wednesday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 6-3

The Mets dropped a close one 4-3 Tuesday. They’ve been playing a lot better of late with a 6-4 mark over the last 10 games but their .500 baseball over the last month has been a little too late as they remain 9 games out of an NL Wild Card spot with 11 to go.

The Marlins have really turned up the heat with 13 victories in their last 20 games. They sit just a half-game out of the final Wild Card spot in the NL. Miami is 44-33 at home and 25-23 within the NL East.

Mets at Marlins projected starters

RHP Kodai Senga vs. RHP Eury Perez

Senga (11-7, 2.95 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 155 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 10 K Thursday vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
  • 2 career starts vs. Marlins: 2-0, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 14 K in 11 1/3 IP

Perez (5-5, 3.06 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 88 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 7 K Thursday vs. Milwaukee Brewers
  • 2023 home/road splits: 3-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 in 8 home starts; 2-4, 4.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 10 road starts

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Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:48 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Marlins -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-210) | Marlins -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 3, Mets 2

Moneyline

Senga has been impressive only allowing more than 2 ER in 1 of his last 7 starts with a 2.22 ERA. This should be a low-scoring one, and I think the Marlins can hang around long enough to get to the Mets’ 22nd-ranked bullpen. Miami is a stellar 31-13 in 1-run games this year, so I’ll take the MARLINS (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

I’m picking the Marlins in a close one here, and the Mets are outpriced for a run of insurance.

PASS.

Senga’s K-props weren’t available at the time of publication, and his number will probably be 6.5. I’d take the Over on that at a solid price. He has 10 K’s in 3 of his last 4 starts.

Over/Under

We have a really low number here. The Under has cashed 5 times in the last 10 meetings between the teams. The Mets are 4-5-1 O/U over the last 10, and Miami is 4-6. Senga has pitched to 3 Unders in the last 4, and Perez has pitched to 4 of 5.

LEAN UNDER 7 (+100).

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New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (70-80) and the Miami Marlins (78-73) play the middle contest of a 3-game series at loanDepot park Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 6-2

The Mets opened the road series with a 2-1 victory on Monday night. New York scored in the top of the 9th inning on a solo homer by INF/OF Jeff McNeil to spoil the night in South Florida.

The Marlins were coming in hot after a 3-game high-scoring sweep of the division champ Atlanta Braves. However, the loss dropped them a half-game back of the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds for 1 of the final 2 NL Wild Card spots.

Mets at Marlins projected starters

LHP Joey Lucchesi vs. LHP Braxton Garrett

Lucchesi (3-0, 2.83 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 35 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 5 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 7-1 home win vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday
  • 2023 road splits: 2-0, 2.41 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 2 HR, .250 opponent batting average (OBA) in 4 starts

Garrett (9-6, 3.67 ERA) makes his 29th start and 30th overall appearance. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 149 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 2-0 road win vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday
  • 2023 home splits: 3-4, 4.82 ERA (74 2/3 IP, 40 ER), 13 HR, .278 OBA in 14 starts and 1 relief appearance

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Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:23 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Marlins -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-155) | Marlins -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Marlins 2

Moneyline

The METS (+135) might not be going to the postseason, and they’re doing their best to make sure the Marlins (-160) don’t go, either.

New York eked out 1-run road win with a dramatic 9th inning HR Monday, and it is now 6-2 in 8 meetings with Miami. These teams meet 5 more times in the next 12 games, and the Mets could be a major reason why the Marlins aren’t included in the postseason.

Run line/Against the spread

The METS +1.5 (-155) aren’t priced out of line if you’re not quite feeling a 2nd straight win as an underdog, and you want a little insurance instead.

The Marlins -1.5 (+125) need a win to keep pace in the Wild Card picture, but Lucchesi has been a tough customer in his return to the majors, while Garrett has been far more effective on the road than at home. It’s a perfect recipe for another underdog win.

Over/Under

The UNDER 8 (-110) is the play again on Monday. We saw the total go way Under on Monday, with just 2 total runs scored in the first 8 innings, and 3 runs altogether.

It was a crazy turn of events to see a pitcher’s duel in Miami after the Marlins had piled up 36 runs of offense in the 3-game sweep of the Braves in the series prior.

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New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (69-80) and the Miami Marlins (78-72) open a 3-game series at loanDepot park Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 5-2

The Mets dropped 2 of 3 games against the Cincinnati Reds at Citi Field over the weekend, salvaging the series finale on Sunday in an 8-4 score as the Over (9) cashed. New York has won 5 of the past 8 games overall, with the Over going 4-1-1 in the past 6 contests.

The Marlins swept the AL East champion Atlanta Braves over the weekend, pulling into a tie for the final NL Wild Card spot with the Chicago Cubs with 12 regular-season games remaining. Miami’s offense came alive in the 3-game sweep of Atlanta, averaging 12.0 runs per game.

Mets at Marlins projected starters

RHP Jose Butto vs. RHP Edward Cabrera

Butto (1-2, 3.46 ERA) makes his 5th start and 7th overall appearance. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 6.2 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 26 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 7-4 home win vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday
  • 2023 home splits: 1-2, 4.38 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1 HR, .178 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance

Cabrera (6-7, 4.52 ERA) makes his 18th start and 20th overall appearance. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 6.3 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 85 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 6 BB, 5 K in 3-1 road loss vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Tuesday
  • 2023 home splits: 6-0, 2.61 ERA (38 IP, 11 ER), 3 HR, .191 OBA in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance

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Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:05 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Marlins -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-155) | Marlins -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 6, Mets 3

Moneyline

The MARLINS (-155) are moderate favorites, but they keep steaming along as they try to keep their Wild Card hopes on track.

The difference here is pitching, as Cabrera is unbeaten in 6 decisions at home. While he has some extremely odd splits against the Mets this season, allowing just 4 ER, 2 H and 13 BB in 6 2/3 IP across 2 starts, he is at home, and he doesn’t miss at loanDepot park.

Run line/Against the spread

The MARLINS -1.5 (+125) are worth a look on the run line.

Miami hasn’t been favored in the past 13 games. The last time it was favored, Miami won 6-4 on Sept. 3 in Washington. The Marlins are 6-3 in the past 9 games as favorites and have cashed the run line in 4 in a row when favored.

Over/Under

The OVER 8.5 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at best.

Miami scored 9 or more runs in the 3-game sweep of the Braves over the weekend, and the total has gone high in 6 in a row at home. For New York, the Over is 4-1-1 in the past 6 games overall, too.

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New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Mets (2-1) and Miami Marlins (1-2) meet Sunday for the final game of this 4-game series. First pitch from loanDepot park is set for 4:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 2-1

So far, scoring 5 or more runs has proven the key for the Mets to win, which is exactly what they did in their 2 victories this series at Miami. They won Thursday’s opener 5-3, lost Friday 2-1 and prevailed Saturday 6-2.

The Marlins hit more homers (4) than the Mets (2) in the first 3 games of this series, but the Mets have produced more RBI hits.

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Mets at Marlins projected starters

RHP Kodai Senga vs. LHP Trevor Rogers

Senga signed a $75 million, 5-year deal with the Mets in the offseason after previously pitching for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in Japan.

  • Spring training: 1-2, 4.00 ERA (9 IP, 4 ER), 6 H, 1 HR, 5 BB, 10 K, 1.22 WHIP in 3 starts
  • Last season in Japan: 11-6, 1.89 ERA (148 IP, 31 ER), 159 K, 1.04 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 in 23 games

Rogers was 4-11 with a 5.47 ERA (107 IP, 65 ER) with a 1.51 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 23 starts last season.

  • Spring training: 0-1, 5.00 ERA (18 IP, 10 ER), 15 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 17 K, 1.00 WHIP in 5 starts
  • Career vs. Mets: 2-1, 2.76 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 39 K in 6 starts, including 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 6 ER) in 2 starts last season

Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:32 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+135) | Marlins +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Marlins 3

Moneyline

BET METS (-125).

The Mets took 2 of the first 3 games of this series and won last season’s series 13-6. They are 7-3 in the last 10 vs. the Marlins and 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Miami.

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN METS -1.5 (+135).

I usually don’t like to bet the moneyline and the run line on the same team in the same game, but the trends are too strong here for the Mets.

Only 2 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings have been decided by 1 run — 4 were decided by 2 runs.

Of the Mets’ last 7 wins vs. the Marlins, 6 have been by 2 runs or more, including 5 victories by at least 4 runs.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 8 (-105).

The Over has cashed more than often when these 2 meet. The Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Miami.

The Over is also 11-1 in the Mets’ last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter, per Covers.com.

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New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Mets (1-1) face the Miami Marlins (1-1) Saturday in the 3rd game of a 4-game series at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

Miami came away with a 2-1 victory Friday to draw both of these squads back to .500 baseball. 1B Pete Alonso hit his first HR of the season in the 9th inning in Friday’s loss.

The Marlins LHP Jesus Luzardo notched 5 K and 0 ER in 5 2/3 IP in his season debut Friday. Miami’s 2 runs came from HRs by OF/2B Jazz Chisholm Jr. and OF/DH Jorge Soler.

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Mets at Marlins projected starters

RHP Tylor Megill vs. RHP Edward Cabrera

Megill posted a 4-2 record in 9 starts and 6 relief appearances during the 2022 season. He finished with a 5.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 47 1/3 IP.

  • Hasn’t made a start since June 16 of last season vs. the Milwaukee Brewers as he ended the 2022 campaign in the bullpen.
  • Allowed 2 or more ER in 6 of his 9 starts in 2022.

Cabrera registered a 6-4 record in 14 starts during the 2022 season, finishing with a 3.01 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 71 2/3 IP.

  • Tallied 5 or more K’s in 8 of his 14 starts in 2022.
  • Logged 6 or more IP in only 3 of his 14 starts last season.

Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:53 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Marlins +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Marlins 3

Moneyline

Following a loss to the Marlins on Friday, I’ll side with the METS (-120) to secure the victory on Saturday. Both teams have inexperienced pitchers on the mound, so I’ll take the better lineup in this NL East showdown.

Run line/Against the spread

METS -1.5 (+140) is the pick in this game with New York looking to avoid starting the season with a 1-2 record. Eight of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have been decided by 2 or more runs.

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Over/Under

Even though it’s early in the season and it’s a decently high total, OVER 8 -105) is how I’d wager. Both pitchers involved in this game are inexperienced and could allow a decent number of base runners and give way to the bullpen early.

We’ve seen 8 or more runs scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings between these teams.

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New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Mets (1-0) will face the Miami Marlins (0-1) in the 2nd game of a 4-game series on Friday at loanDepot Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 1-0.

The Mets defeated the Marlins 5-3 on Opening Day Thursday with RHP Max Scherzer allowing 3 ER in 6 IP while striking out 6 batters. OF Brandon Nimmo led the way offensively with 3 RBIs.

The Marlins lost with reigning NL Cy Young winner RHP Sandy Alcantara on the mound. He finished with 2 K, 4 BB, and 3 ER in 5 2/3 IP.

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Mets at Marlins projected starters

LHP David Peterson vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo

Peterson went 7-5 in 19 starts during the 2022 season. He finished with a 3.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9, and 10.7 K/9 in 105 2/3 IP.

  • Won the final spot in New York’s rotation with RHP Justin Verlander and LHP Jose Quintana dealing with injuries
  • Has recorded 15-plus starts for the Mets in back-to-back seasons

Lazardo recorded a 4-7 record in 18 starts in 2022, finishing with a 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, and 10.8 K/9 in 100 1/3 IP.

  • Was 0-1 with 6.75 ERA in 2 starts vs. Mets last year, allowing 10 H, 7 ER in 9.1 IP
  • Registered at least 6 IP in 11 of his 18 starts last season

Mets at Marlins nickname odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:25 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Marlins -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+150) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Marlins 3

Moneyline

Back the METS (-108) in this NL East matchup despite being on the road. Both teams will have southpaws on the mound, but New York has a lineup that is more adept to hit lefties and Miami’s bullpen isn’t a reliable unit.

The Mets have won 6 of their last 7 road meetings against the Marlins.

Run line/Against the spread

METS -1.5 (+150) has some value, despite many expecting a solid season from Luzardo. Peterson is a formidable pitcher in his own right and New York has enough firepower in its lineup to win by 2-plus runs.

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Over/Under

OVER 7.5 (-105) is how I’d wager on the total as it remains to be seen how long the starting pitchers go in this game this early in the season. The Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these teams.

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New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Mets and Miami Marlins meet Thursday for Opening Day. First pitch at loanDepot park in Miami is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2023. Mets won the season series 13-6 in 2022.

The Mets made some bold moves during the offseason, including the signing of free-agent RHPs Justin Verlander and Japanese import Kodai Senga, as well as the re-signing of OF Brandon Nimmo. LHP Jose Quintana was an underrated signing, too, bolstering the pitching staff.

It wasn’t all great this offseason, however, as RP Edwin Diaz suffered a knee injury during a Team Puerto Rico celebration at the World Baseball Classic, and the Mets now have no clear-cut closer at the back end of their bullpen.

That devastating injury happened on the field of the Marlins, and so did the Japan-USA WBC Final, an instant classic. It might be the best baseball we see in Miami all season.

The Marlins have the 3rd-longest odds to win the National League at +4000, despite adding reigning American League batting champ Luis Arraez at the top of the team’s order. This is a mish-mash batting order with a mix of veterans and younger players which could make some noise, but the pitching staff is just so-so after defending NL Cy Young winner RHP Sandy Alcantara.

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Mets at Marlins projected starters

RHP Max Scherzer vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara

Scherzer (11-5, 2.29 ERA) posted a 0.91 WHIP, 1.49 BB/9 and 10.71 K/9 across 145 1/3 IP in 23 starts in 2022.

  • Went 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 32 K across 24 IP in 4 daytime starts in 2022
  • Did not face the Marlins in 2022, but went 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA with 16 K across 2 starts in 2021 vs. Miami, including 1 CG

Alcantara (14-9, 2.28 ERA) posted an 0.98 WHIP, 1.97 BB/9 and 8.15 K/9 across 228 2/3 IP in 32 starts in 2022.

  • Was in mid-season form in Grapefruit League spring play, going 1-0 in 4 starts with a 0.68 ERA in 13 1/3 IP with 15 K and a 0.75 WHIP
  • Posted a 9-4 record and minuscule 1.64 ERA with a .191 opponent batting average (OBA) and 109 K across 121 IP in 16 home starts with 3 CG in 2022
  • Went 1-1 with a 3.33 ERA and .248 OBA with 3 HR allowed and 21 K across 27 IP in 4 starts vs. NYM in 2022

Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:23 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+150) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Marlins 2

Moneyline

The METS (-125) are worth backing in the opener against the Marlins, as New York has a star-studded offense looking to hit the ground running.

This should be a lower-scoring game against Alcantara, the defending NL Cy Young winner, but look for New York to scratch ahead against the bullpen in this NL East showdown.

Run line/Against the spread

The METS -1.5 (+150) are worth a look on the run line, but go lightly with a half-unit play at best.

Again, it might start out as a well-pitched battle, as Scherzer and Alcantara keep the bats quiet early on. However, New York should be able to get to the bullpen late and push ahead by at least 2 runs, but expect to sweat it out.

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Over/Under

UNDER 6.5 (-105) is a low total, but we have pitching royalty on the bump for both teams. Scherzer and Alcantara should get off to a great start after the pomp and circumstance of Opening Day. These 2 pitchers are gifted, and should hold the score down significantly until we get some late offense against the bullpens.

We saw the Over go 12-6-1 in 2022 in 19 battles between these teams, so we’re going a little against the grain. That includes the total going high at a 6-2-1 clip in 9 battles in Miami. Still, the Under went 4-0 in Alcantara’s final 4 starts of 2022, and the Under went 5-0 in his final 5 home outings last season.

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New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (70-70) and Miami Marlins (58-81) cap off a three-game NL East series Thursday at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Marcus Stroman is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 9-12 with a 2.93 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 156 2/3 IP spanning 29 starts.

  • Owns an ERA that is a would-be career-best for a full season.
  • Has been quite good on the road with a 2.82 ERA over the last three years.

LHP Jesus Luzardo is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. Through 20 games (13 starts), Luzardo is 5-7 with a 7.00 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, and 4.5 BB/9 across 72 IP.

  • Struggled mightily through much of August but has been solid over his last two starts with 3 ER over 11 2/3 IP.
  • Has been beaten up by a low 64.5% left-on-base rate in posting a 7.15 ERA since the beginning of August.

Mets at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:35 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (-108) | Marlins +1.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Mets 6, Marlins 4

Money line (ML)

The Mets and Marlins split the first two games of this series but New York is an improved 8-3 over its last 11 games.

Miami is 14-23 over its last 37 games, but the Fish have won three straight series at home. They are 6-2 over their last eight home games against the Mets.

The season series is knotted at 7-7, and New York’s National League entry owns a slim 51-48 edge in run differential.

The best edge in this one is on the Mets but with the run line in play: PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Mets are 5-2 in their last seven series finales.

One strength of New York’s offense is its success a third time through when facing starters. That’s a problem area for Luzardo who has coughed up a .928 OPS in third-time-through situations.

Expect the Marlins to expose more of the soft underbelly of their relief corps.

BACK THE METS -1.5 (-108).

Over/Under (O/U)

A below-the-mean batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations has been particularly hard on the New York nine.

Throw in some slight fade working against both bullpens, and TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-115).

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