NFC playoff picture after Week 10

The Vikings and Seahawks had huge wins, while the Saints lost their first-round bye position.

The NFC playoff picture is looking a little clearer as far as who will make it, but it’s muddled as far as positioning goes.

Here’s where the NFC stands after Week 10.

First-Round Byes

49ers, 8-1
Packers, 7-2

The 49ers took a hit on Monday Night Football, losing to their division rivals. San Francisco is now only a game up for first place in the division.

The Packers hung on against the Panthers and managed to move up in the standings thanks to the Falcons stunning the Saints.

Wild Card Round

No. 6 Vikings (7-3) at No. 3 Saints (7-2)

No. 5 Seahawks (8-2) at No. 4 Cowboys (5-4)

The Vikings and Seahawks both had huge statement wins over the Cowboys and 49ers, respectively.

It should be fun when the two teams face off in Week 12 in Seattle.

Holding On . . .

Rams, 5-4
Eagles, 5-4
Panthers, 5-4
Bears, 4-5

The Eagles suddenly find themselves back in conversation in the NFC East, while the Rams and Bears play in Week 11. The loser of that game will have a pretty tough time making it back to the playoffs considering this group is already 2.5 games back.

Despite loss to Falcons, Saints still have second-best Super Bowl LIV odds

Oddsmakers weren’t discouraged when the New Orleans Saints got tripped up against the Falcons. They still have great Super Bowl odds.

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It was certainly disappointing to see the New Orleans Saints come up short against the Atlanta Falcons, but that loss didn’t turn into a big hit for their Super Bowl odds. Per BetMGM, the Saints (+650) trail only the New England Patriots (+260) in the Super Bowl LIV betting lines. Along with the Baltimore Ravens (+700) and San Francisco 49ers (+750), they form the group of four teams with odds better than +1000 to win a title this year.

Here’s how the top 10 shakes out after those four contenders at the top:

  • Green Bay Packers +1000
  • Kansas City Chiefs +1200
  • Seattle Seahawks +1600
  • Philadelphia Eagles +1800
  • Minnesota Vikings +2000
  • Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans +2500

So obviously the oddsmakers aren’t bothered by a poor Saints effort in their latest loss. New Orleans is still perceived as a top team (maybe the top team) in the NFC, especially now that San Francisco lost in a dramatic overtime finish on Monday night.

It’ll be fascinating to see how things develop down the stretch as the Saints, 49ers and Packers each compete for the top two playoff seeds in the conference. The 49ers will play the Packers (at home) and the Saints (on the road) twice in three weeks, with a road contest against the Ravens squeezed in between, adding even more intrigue.

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Pro Football Focus grades Marcus Williams as the Saints’ best player

The analysts at Pro Football Focus graded Marcus Williams, not Cameron Jordan or Michael Thomas, as the best New Orleans Saints player.

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The New Orleans Saints have one of the better rosters around the league, led by a defense that’s won most of its battles this year. When prompted to suggest which single player is the best on that unit, popular picks are probably defensive end Cameron Jordan or cornerback Marshon Lattimore, or maybe even linebacker Demario Davis.

But the analysts at Pro Football Focus threw another hat into the ring: free safety Marcus Williams, who they’ve graded as the best player not just on the defense, but on the entire team — ranking him ahead of Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, and everyone else. Williams has caught three of New Orleans’ four interceptions this season, and come close to securing three others:

Everyone loves Marshon Lattimore, but it’s Williams who takes the cake for New Orleans right now. The third-year Utah product has earned an impressive 80.8 run-defense grade and an even better 91.1 coverage grade so far this season. Among the 69 safeties with 10 or more targets in Weeks 1-10, Williams ranks first in completion percentage allowed (46.2%) and total yards allowed (51). He has also recorded three dropped interceptions in addition to his three caught interceptions.

Williams has improved his tackling technique as the season has gone on, though his early outings saw the same bad head-down technique that led to the Minneapolis Miracle a few years ago. So credit him for that big improvement. Until his teammates start to help out with some turnovers of their own, the Saints may have to continue relying on his ability to intercept passes from the center-field spot. In the meantime, maybe he can change into a better jersey number?

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Saints lose ground on reeling 49ers in the latest NFL power rankings

The New Orleans Saints fell in the latest NFL power rankings, trailing the New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers, and Baltimore Ravens.

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The New Orleans Saints took a fall in the latest NFL power rankings from Doug Farrar over at Touchdown Wire, slipping from the No. 3 spot to No. 4 after an ugly home upset to the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday. And it couldn’t have come at a worse time, with the top-seeded San Francisco 49ers suffering their first loss of the year. If the Saints had handled their business, they could have seized the top spot in the NFC. Now, they’re behind both the 49ers and Green Bay Packers, with seven games left to play.

Here’s some of what Farrar wrote about the Saints’ underwhelming day against Atlanta, and what he’s looking for out of them in the coming weeks:

Does this game portend larger issues, or was it an anomaly? The Saints have struggled with slow starts this season, and their offensive line is struggling with ineffectiveness, perhaps exacerbated by injuries. The most disconcerting injury right now, though, is the hamstring strain suffered by top cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore is week to week at this point, and the Saints next face a Buccaneers offense that knows how to exploit weakened secondaries

The 49ers are still ranked above the Saints in Farrar’s power rankings, but barely. The New England Patriots are sandwiched in between both of them, and the only team to have beaten New England this year — Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens — owns the No. 1 spot. It’s easy to see a path for the Saints to make a late bid for the highest spot in these power rankings, but they need to rebound in a big way after the speedbump they hit on Sunday.

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Dan Quinn impressed with Kaleb McGary’s fight against Cam Jordan

Prior to the Falcons’ Week 10 defensive outburst, they had recorded just seven total sacks through their first eight games. In contrast, Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan had personally tallied eight sacks entering Sunday’s game.

Prior to the Falcons’ Week 10 defensive outburst, they had recorded just seven total sacks through their first eight games. In contrast, Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan had personally tallied eight sacks entering Sunday’s contest.

Atlanta’s shocking six-sack performance become the biggest headline from the team’s 26-9 upset win over New Orleans, although the offensive line deserves some credit as well.

The Falcons kept the Saints’ powerful offense off of the field by winning the time of possession battle, thanks in large part to the way they played up front against one of the best defenses in the NFL this season.

Atlanta’s offensive line allowed just one sack and kept an injured Matt Ryan upright for most of the day. Rookie right tackle Kaleb McGary has been solid for most of the year, but was especially good on Sunday.

He held Jordan in check and never once shied away from the challenge. Watch for yourself as Brian Baldinger breaks down the team’s offensive line play below:

Falcons coach Dan Quinn noticed as well, appreciating the way McGary battled against one of the league’s best defensive ends.

Atlanta could get their other first-round pick, guard Chris Lindstrom, back in a few weeks, although it may take another season to know what the team has in the former Boston College standout.

For now, the Falcons have to feel pretty good about what they’ve seen from McGary.

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Bucs jump four spots in latest USA TODAY NFL Power Rankings

After a big win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers climbed up the ladder in the latest NFL Power Rankings.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrated their first win since Week 4 Sunday when they took down the Arizona Cardinals, 30-27, at home.

It was the Bucs’ first true home game since Week 3, and the big win also helped stopped the team’s four-game losing streak.

A win was just what this team needed, too, with a rematch against the New Orleans Saints looming. The Saints beat the Buccaneers back in Week 5, which started them on their losing streak. The Bucs would love nothing more than to add to the Saints’ misery after New Orleans was stunned at home last Sunday by the 1-7 Atlanta Falcons.

Tampa Bay is not only riding the momentum this week heading into their big divisional showdown Sunday, but they’re also climbing up the ladder in the latest USA TODAY NFL Power Rankings, making the jump from 26 to 22 this week.

Here’s a little nugget of information added about wide receiver Breshad Perriman:

“Fair or not, NFL’s Next Gen Stats can be really unkind. Bucs’ Breshad Perriman currently has league’s worst catch percentage (32.1%).”

The Bucs will take on the Saints and Drew Brees without cornerback Vernon Hargreaves, who was cut by the team earlier today just days after being benched against the Cardinals for lack of hustle.

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The 2020 Pro Bowl Ballot has many Saints players, but no Taysom Hill

The 2020 Pro Bowl Ballot features Saints players like Deonte Harris while Demario Davis faces tough sledding and Taysom Hill isn’t an option

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The 2020 Pro Bowl Ballot is up at NFL.com, giving fans the opportunity to vote for their favorite players. However, some notable New Orleans Saints players didn’t make the cut, while others are victims of bad classifications. Here is the list of which players are eligible, organized by offense, defense, and special teams, along with our notes on what the ballot got wrong:

Offense

  • Quarterbacks: Drew Brees
  • Running backs: Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray
  • Wide receivers: Ted Ginn, Michael Thomas
  • Fullbacks: Zach Line
  • Tight ends: Jared Cook
  • Tackles: Terron Armstead, Ryan Ramczyk
  • Guards: Andrus Peat, Larry Warford
  • Centers: Erik McCoy

Where is Taysom Hill? He plays quarterback, fullback, halfback, tight end, slot receiver, and a few other positions we may not even have names for, but he isn’t listed on the ballot. It’s a heck of an oversight considering how often the Saints find opportunities for him to go out there and make a play.

Other than that, this is a solid list of contributors. Be sure to vote for Line at fullback; the Saints are one of the most creative teams in the league at deploying their fullbacks, and his inclusion would be a welcome reward for putting in so much thankless work in the trenches.

Defense

  • Defensive ends: Marcus Davenport. Cameron Jordan
  • Defensive tackles: Malcom Brown, Sheldon Rankins
  • Inside linebackers: Kiko Alonso
  • Outside linebackers: Demario Davis, A.J. Klein
  • Cornerbacks: Eli Apple, Marshon Lattimore
  • Strong safeties: Vonn Bell
  • Free safeties: Marcus Williams

Rankins must have gotten in off of name recognition, because he’s nowhere near to playing like his old self. He’s played 194 snaps in six games since returning from last year’s Achilles injury, and has picked up one sack and two hits in that time. He hasn’t logged so much as a tackle in his last three games. The Saints are determined to play him over David Onyemata (two sacks and five hits in eight games), but there’s no questioning which of them is more productive, and more deserving of a Pro Bowl nomination.

Alonso may line up as the middle linebacker, but he only plays 25% of snaps. The Saints rotate their linebackers around and juggle their responsibilities so often that Davis could be listed at inside linebacker on the ballot and no one would bat an eye; instead, he’s forced to compete with well-known edge rushers like Von Miller, T.J. Watt, Khalil Mack, and Chandler Jones for recognition. The Pro Bowl ballot badly needs a redesign to reflect different schemes around the league.

Special teams

  • Kickers: Wil Lutz
  • Return specialists: Deonte Harris
  • Punters: Thomas Morstead
  • Special teamers: Craig Robertson

Robertson is a special teams captain, but he’s not the most prominent member of the coverage units. He’s played 176 snaps on special teams so far, which trails cornerback Justin Hardee (198) for the team lead. Hill was played sparingly in that phase of the game while Brees missed time with his thumb injury, though he’s matched Hardee’s team-leading pace of play when given the green light to go help cover punts and kickoffs. Robertson would also have matched Hardee had he been healthy for the season-opener, so his inclusion isn’t much of a slight to his teammates.

We don’t need to tell you to vote for Harris among the return specialists, but you should make an effort to do that anyway. He’s the only player in the NFL to rack up 200 or more return yards on both punts (232) and kickoffs (309), and the rookie deserves this recognition. Still, hopefully he’ll be preparing for the Super Bowl with his teammates rather than taking in some sun at the Pro Bowl.

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Bucs cut former first-rounder Vernon Hargreaves before Saints game

WR Michael Thomas and the New Orleans Saints will play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers without top CB Vernon Hargreaves, who was released Tuesday.

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made a big move at cornerback, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Schefter reported that Tampa Bay cut starting cornerback Vernon Hargreaves, their former first-round pick in 2016 out of Florida. Hargreaves had played the third-most defensive snaps of all Buccaneers this season (582), including 46 snaps last Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals. Hargreaves will now go on waivers.

Their pass defense was ranked worst in the league, so some change was inevitable. It’s just strange to outright cut someone who led his position in playing-time at this point in the season, even if Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians benched Hargreaves late in the game for a perceived lack of hustle.

Hargreaves’ release might look as if it’s coming at a strange time, but it makes some sense; at a distant third-place in the NFC South with a 3-6 record, the Buccaneers are shifting their focus towards self-evaluating and figuring out which players will still be here next year. Cutting a former top draft pick sends a clear message that no one is safe, and lacking effort won’t be tolerated.

So what does this mean for the New Orleans Saints? They’re inbound for Tampa Bay, bringing a receiving corps that’s pretty much been a one-man show. Michael Thomas has caught 86 passes this year, while the other wide receivers (Ted Ginn Jr. Tre’Quan Smith, Deonte Harris, and Austin Carr) have combined for 30 receptions. New Orleans has had to get creative in its use of pass-catching tight ends, running backs, fullbacks, and quarterback Taysom Hill to try and pick up the slack.

Sunday should be another big game for Thomas. He dropped a season-high 182 receiving yards on Tampa Bay in their last meeting inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, outmuscling every defensive back they tried to assign to him. And he did that with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. Without Hargreaves on the field and with Drew Brees throwing to him, there’s no reason Thomas should slow down any time soon.

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Rookie returner Deonte Harris is on pace to make Saints history

The New Orleans Saints picked up a game-changing talent in Deonte Harris, and if he keeps it up, he might make franchise history.

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The New Orleans Saints didn’t have much to hang their hats on during last week’s loss to the Atlanta Falcons, but one player remained a bright spot: rookie return specialist Deonte Harris. Harris picked up 19 yards on a timely punt return and had his best game as a kickoff returner (bringing back four of them for 109 yards) in the loss, doing his part to give his team good field position.

What’s impressive is that this is who Harris has been all season. He’s the only player in the NFL to record 200 or more yards returning both punts (he has 232) and kickoffs (309). It’s rare to see a player impact both areas so well, especially as a rookie. And it’s not like he carries an elite NFL pedigree as a former five-star recruit; he’s a product of Assumption College, a small school in Worcester, Mass. While he stunted on that lower level of competition (earning the NCAA all-division record with 14 combined touchdown returns along the way), the ease of which his skills have translated to the NFL might be unprecedented.

His performance so far stands out well in the context of Saints team history. The 232 punt return yards he’s logged through nine games are the fourth-most in a single season for New Orleans since Sean Payton was hired as head coach, surpassing Reggie Bush’s own rookie production in 2006. He’s on pace to collect 412 yards on punt returns, which would be the best total in Payton’s era and the fifth-most in franchise history. It’s a long shot for him to unseat Michael Lewis’s 2002 season (his 625 punt return yards and 1,807 kick return yards earned Pro Bowl and All-Pro recognition), but it’s obvious that Harris can’t be completely ruled out.

Talk about hitting on an undrafted free agent signing. And these numbers don’t account for a long punt return touchdown Harris scored against the Chicago Bears but lost on a dubious holding call that still vexes his coaches. He’s a player who’s a threat to score every time he touches the ball; hopefully the Saints can start to involve him on offense.

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NFC Playoff Picture: Where do the Saints stand after Week 10?

The New Orleans Saints may have lost their Week 10 game with the Atlanta Falcons, but the NFC playoff picture is far from locked in place.

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Week 10 delivered plenty of surprises to the NFL, painting the playoff picture in sweeping, sometimes-erratic strokes. It brought big changes for some Super Bowl contenders and a painful reality check for other playoff hopefuls, the New Orleans Saints among them. The Saints may have fallen flat against the Atlanta Falcons, but they weren’t the only favorite to get upset this week. Let’s run through the games that impacted this week’s standings.

Green Bay Packers 24, Carolina Panthers 16

What a game for the Packers, who were able to run often and effectively on what’s been a mostly-strong Panthers defense. Their two-headed attack of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams combined for 156 rushing yards in a game that saw snow pile up as the afternoon drew on. Green Bay’s defense showed up with several sacks and frequently pressured newly-minted starting Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen, who put up a fight but wasn’t able to clinch a tough win on the road. Christian McCaffrey was effective as ever but ultimately came up short at the goal-line on the game’s final play.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Los Angeles Rams 12

The Rams hoped to rally down the stretch after the Jalen Ramsey trade, but his arrival didn’t give them enough juice to defeat the Mason Rudolph-led Steelers. Quarterback Jared Goff has continued to nosedive since signing his huge contract extension in preseason, and the Rams’ season may be sinking too fast for the rest of the team to pull him back up to competence. They’re a distant third-best in the NFC West at 5-4, but theoretically have enough time to bounce back.

Minnesota Vikings 28, Dallas Cowboys 24

This game was all about Dalvin Cook: he picked up 97 rushing yards and 86 receiving yards, giving the Cowboys defense fits throughout their Sunday Night Football matchup. His efforts were instrumental to keeping pressure off mistake-prone quarterback Kirk Cousins and finding a way to win, though Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott threw for nearly 400 yards in a game that was competitive down to the wire. The NFC East race is as cloudy as ever, which is good news for the Saints, who currently sit above them all in projected playoff seeding.

Seattle Seahawks 27, San Francisco 49ers 24 (OT)

A contender for the game of the year saw the 49ers receive their first loss this season, even if Seattle did its best to lose. Their best defenders (linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright) each dropped game-winning interceptions late on Monday Night Football, and the Seahawks coaching staff took the ball out of their franchise quarterback’s hands with multiple run-run-pass-punt sequences down the stretch. Still, Russell Wilson found a way to put his team in position to win, even if coach Pete Carroll made an insanely cowardly decision to punt from his own 45-yard line late in overtime. Neither of these teams should feel good about their chances of playing the Saints in the postseason.

Here’s what the projected NFC playoff picture looks like after Week 10:

NFC standings

  1. West: 49ers (8-1)
  2. North: Packers (8-2)
  3. South: Saints (7-2)
  4. East: Cowboys (5-4)
  5. Wild card: Seahawks (8-2)
  6. Wild card: Vikings (7-3)

In the hunt

  • Rams (5-4)
  • Eagles (5-4)
  • Panthers (5-4)
  • Bears (4-5)

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