Week 7 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

The Mountain West rolls on and we once again look at where you should place your money this week.

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Week 7 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets


A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 7


Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 1-2 in week six and are 33-23-1 on the year. Another week below .500. At this point, just take the opposite of what I do.

Fresno State @ Utah state (+5.5, O/U 54.5)

Fresno State’s defense is allowing less than 300 yards a game. Utah State hasn’t really faced good defenses this year outside of Air Force and Iowa. The Bulldogs offense is going to drive this scoreline. If they can finish drives, they’ll cover easy. If they can’t, it will be a close one.

Pick: Fresno State -5.5

UNLV @ Nevada (+7.5, O/U 53.5)

Rivalry games usually mean you throw the stats out of the window. However, this year’s Nevada team is the exception to the rule. They are next to last in almost all categories. UNLV on the other hand is one of this years surprises. Barry Odom has this team on the verge of bowl eligibility in year one. The Rebels offense is still finding an identity but they execute well.

Pick: UNLV -7.5

San Jose State @ New Mexico (+7.5, O/U 55.5)

The Spartans are not the team anyone thought they were going to be this year. They are really struggling on offense. New Mexico has been a surprise. They have somewhat of an offense and seem to be trending in the right direction. I think they’ll surprise people in this game and cover, if not outright win.

Pick: New Mexico +7.5

Wyoming @ Air Force (-11.5, O/U 42.5)

Yeah, no idea what to really go with here. Craig Bohl has a winning record against Air Force. This is Air Force’s first real test of the year. This seems like the perfect time for a ball control classic from Troy Calhoun. Expect the Falcons to slog it out one play at a time and take 10 minutes per drive.

Pick: Under

Boise State @ Colorado state (+8.5, O/U 60.5)

Slam the over right now! I’m comfortable taking the over up to 69.5. I feel it could go 80+, but you never know. Both defenses have been horrible and both offenses have shown they can light it up at times. The Rams are on homecoming and coming off an embarrassing loss, so lets see what happens.

Pick: Over

San Diego State @ Hawai’i (+6, O/U 52.5)

Umm, yeah. What to really do here. Hawai’i seems like they can cover here. They have a decent defense against a horrid Aztecs offense. The really battle will come down to whether or not the Warriors can move the ball. They’ve struggled at times this year, but the Aztecs aren’t the defense we’ve known them to be this season.

Pick: Hawai’i +6

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Mountain West Football: 2023 Midseason Team Grades

How has each Mountain West team fared now that the season is half-finished? We grade offense, defense, and special teams.

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Mountain West Football: 2023 Midseason Team Grades


How has each Mountain West team fared now that the season is half-finished? We grade offense, defense, and special teams.


Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire

Who’s made the grade and who hasn’t?

Now that most Mountain West teams have played six games, the conference’s 2023 football season has reached its halfway point. While some things have played out as predicted, several squads are rising while others have fallen off, which means now is as good a time as any to assess just how well each team has done.

First, for the sake of context, keep these links handy as some particular statistics will be mentioned in most team sections:

Midseason Grades By Team

Air Force | Boise State | Colorado State | Fresno State | Hawaii | Nevada | New Mexico | San Diego State | San Jose State | UNLV | Utah State | Wyoming

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Week 6 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

The Mountain West takes a little break as there are only 3 games this week. Here’s what you should be looking for this week.

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Week 6 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets


A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 6


Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 4-3 in week five and are 32-21-1 on the year. First week above .500 in a few. Lets make it two in a row.

#24 Fresno State @ Wyoming (+6.5, O/U 42.5)

The premier matchup of the Mountain West season so far. The Bulldogs head to Laramie to face the Cowboys on Fox. Fresno State hasn’t missed a beat after losing Jake Haener to graduation. Wyoming still doesn’t have a quarterback. I think the Bulldogs remain in control of the MW.

Pick: Fresno State -6.5

Colorado State @ Utah State (+2.5, O/U 62.5)

A game between two top offenses and two bottom defenses. This game will determine bowl eligibility for both squads. CSU has started picking it up on offense and the defense needs to come along with it. Utah State is a second half team, but the Aggies will struggle to contain the Rams offense.

Pick: Colorado State -2.5

San Jose State @ Boise State (-9.5, O/U 57.5)

Boise hasn’t shown me enough this year to be confident in this spread. Their defense hasn’t been great and has just enough holes to let the Spartans get some scores to push this total higher. The over hasn’t moved since it game out and it’s probably a safe bet to hit.

Pick: Over

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Mountain West Football: Players Of The Month For August/September

With the first several chapters of the 2023 season in the books, who have been Mountain West football’s biggest standouts so far?

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Mountain West Football: Players of the Month For August/September


With the first several chapters of the 2023 season in the books, who have been Mountain West football’s biggest standouts so far?


Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

The small-sample elite.

Note: Players below are presented in alphabetical order.

Offensive Players of the Month

1. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, New Mexico

The Lobos’ lead running back has a strong case as the biggest individual surprise of the young season, posting 420 rushing yards at 6.77 yards per carry with seven touchdowns in five games. According to Pro Football Focus, he also ranks second among Mountain West running backs with 26 missed tackles forced on just 62 attempts and first with a 92.1 overall grade. He’s a definite keeper.

2. Tory Horton, WR, Colorado State

Horton has picked up where he left off last season in a big way, leading the nation with 11.3 receptions and 135 receiving yards per game through four contests. He’s also scored six times in the last three games and posted an overall PFF grade of 90.0, second among conference pass catchers, helping establish the Rams’ offensive potency with a new quarterback and emerging playmakers in tow.

3. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Perhaps no player in the conference has meant as much to his offense as the sophomore Texan means to the Broncos. He currently leads the Mountain West with 165.3 all-purpose yards per game and the entire FBS with 12 total touchdowns in just five games, so while Boise State clearly has a number of issues to sort out, getting the ball to #2 should remain a priority while they do so.

4. Zac Larrier, QB, Air Force

Through five games, Larrier has achieved a rare combination of efficiency and explosiveness, especially among Falcons quarterbacks of recent vintage. His 362 rushing yards currently rank fifth among all players in the Mountain West and first among FBS QBs, but he’s also connected on 14-of-19 throws for 410 yards, a staggering 21.6 yards per attempt, and accounted for six total touchdowns (three rushing, three passing). It’s little wonder, then, that PFF has given him the highest grade among all Mountain West quarterbacks to date at 82.6.

Defensive Players of the Month

1. Mohamed Kamara, DE, Colorado State

Kamara entered 2023 as arguably the conference’s premier pass rusher and nothing he’s done in four games has dissuaded anyone of that notion. Besides leading the Mountain West with 6.5 sacks and eight tackles for loss and forcing two fumbles, PFF credits Kamara with 13 quarterback hurries (third in the conference) and 12 stops for good measure.

2. Ike Larsen, S, Utah State

Larsen has continued to be a man of impeccable timing in the young season. His 36 total tackles put him in a tie for second among Mountain West defensive backs, but it’s the highlight plays — the pick-six against Idaho State and the two blocked kicks, including the game-saving play in a Week 5 road win over UConn — that have made him one of the most valuable defenders anywhere in the conference from day one.

3. Bo Richter, DE, Air Force

The Mountain West’s best defense has shined on every front thus far, but few individuals have stood out like Richter. Though he’s tallied 14 total tackles, PFF credits the senior with 16 quarterback hurries, seventh among all FBS defenders, and only one missed fumble to go along with his 5.5 tackles for loss, three sacks, and one forced fumble.

4. Noah Tumblin, CB, San Diego State

The Aztecs secondary has been busy throughout 2023 to date, so you might be forgiven for not noticing that Tumblin is in the midst of a breakout season. Not only does he lead all Mountain West defensive backs with a 85.5 overall PFF grade and a 88.7 grade in coverage, Tumblin currently paces the conference with ten passes defended (eight pass breakups, two interceptions) and has only missed one tackle in six games.

Week 5 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

And we rolling, rolling, rolling! Mountain West football reaches week 5. And here’s how you can lose your money this week.

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Week 5 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets


A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 5


Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 3-6-1 in week four and are 28-18-1 on the year. Our first week below .500. Time to pick it up.

Utah State @ UCONN (+4.5, O/U 51.5)

UConn is not a good team this year. They haven’t scored above 17 points in a game this year. Utah State isn’t that good either, but they’re better than UConn. Watch for the Aggies to struggle early, before pulling it out in the second half and running away with it.

Pick: Utah State -4.5

BOise State @ Memphis (-2.5, O/U 58.5)

Maybe this line is based on Boise’s history, but it feels disrespectful to Memphis. The only thing I can see is that Memphis has trouble defending the run. Boise is pretty good at that, but that’s pretty much all they can do. The Tigers pick up the win and cover before really starting conference play.

Pick: Memphis -2.5

Hawai’i @ UNLV (-10.5, O/U 58.5)

*Insert Nathan Fillion confused gif here* This is the trap game of the week in the Mountain West. Does the run and shoot get off and running? Or do the Rebels continue their hot start to the year? Who knows, but I expect Hawai’i to have something to say and keep this one close.

Pick: Hawai’i +10.5

New Mexico @ Wyoming (-13.5, O/U 40.5)

Craig Bohl has trouble with New Mexico. Since 2014 he is 4-5 against the Lobos. The Cowboys do not have an offense. They are ranked bottom 10 in the country in yards per game. The Lobos will have some spark after last weeks win at UMass and will cover against the Cowboys.

Pick: New Mexico +13.5

Utah Tech @ Colorado State (No Line)

CSU, end of story. Utah Tech has given up 36 points in every game this year and this is the perfect opportunity for the Rams to work out any issues before hitting conference play.

Pick: Colorado State

San Diego State @ Air Force (-10.5, O/U 42.5)

Is it time to bring back the Spaztecs nick name yet? San Diego State doesn’t really have an offense, which is nothing new. But they don’t really have the defense to keep them in games anymore. And now they run into the machine that is the Air Force triple option.

Pick: Air Force -10.5

Nevada @ #25 Fresno State (-24.5, O/U 50.5)

Fresno will probably hit the over by themselves again. I took the under last week after a disappointing performance against the Sun Devils. The Wolf Pack are not the Sun Devils. Expect the Bulldogs to run wild in this one.

Pick: Over

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Mountain West Football: 12 Statistics That Have Shaped The Season So Far

Ball doesn’t lie. Neither do these numbers and how they tell the story of Mountain West football in 2023 to this point.

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Mountain West Football: 12 Statistics That Have Shaped the Season So Far


Ball doesn’t lie. Neither do these numbers and how they tell the story of Mountain West football in 2023 to this point.


Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Which numbers have shaped the narrative to this point?

-53

It isn’t easy for any team to dig their way out of an early hole, but Utah State has taken that to a rare extreme so far in 2023. In four first quarters, the Aggies have been outscored 60-7, which equates to a -53 point differential. Such a lopsided result means that it isn’t likely you can pin the blame on any one party, though it isn’t a new problem for Blake Anderson’s Aggies, either: USU was outscored 101-62 in the first quarter last year, and 106-62 during their 2021 conference championship run.

The cruelest irony is that Utah State has outscored its opponents in each of the other three quarters to date. That also happens to be an achievement they managed when they won the Mountain West two years ago, so it bears watching whether they can finally overcome their propensity for sluggish starts and begin playing up to the standard of a title contender.

0

Zero can mean a lot of different things but, in this instance, it is to note that, despite a surprising change at quarterback, Colorado State’s pass catchers have been adept at not beating themselves in the young season. According to Pro Football Focus, three Rams — Tory Horton, Dallin Holker, and Louis Brown — have combined for 89 targets and zero drops in four games.

What does it mean? To start, it could suggest that Horton’s 10.1% drop rate a year ago was more an aberration than a trend since he now currently sports a respectable 5.8% career drop rate on 247 targets. Brown, meanwhile, is a small-sample hero who has yet to record a drop on 39 career targets and counting while Holker has so far maintained his solid production from last year at BYU; he didn’t have any drops in 2022, either.

As for the one name not mentioned here, Justus Ross-Simmons, bear in mind that though he has two drops on 23 targets, that rate was only 3.7% in 2022 so there probably isn’t much reason to panic. Collectively, this sure-handed group could make the Rams passing game more difficult for defensive coordinators to deal with in Mountain West play than anticipated.

4.31

Air Force’s defense has excelled to this point in the season, allowing a Mountain West-best 4.31 yards per play through their first four contests. For the sake of context, San Diego State led the conference in allowing 4.36 YPP during the shortened 2020 season, but if the season ended today, this would be the lowest average by anyone in the conference since TCU gave up just 4.16 YPP en route to their Rose Bowl victory in 2010.

When you narrow the focus to whittle away garbage time and the like, it remains a respectable average. According to Brian Fremeau, in three games against FBS competition, the Falcons have only allowed 4.67 defensive yards per play and rank 23rd in the country on that front, just ahead of Fresno State for the best mark in the Mountain West. Granted, some of that has to do with the level of competition they’ve faced so far — Sam Houston State is dead last among FBS teams in yards per play, for instance — but they’re doing what good teams should do against inferior opponents: Leave no doubt. For that, defensive coordinator Brian Knorr deserves a lot of kudos.

8.5

The New Mexico Lobos might have had the country’s most lifeless offense in 2022, but it’s amazing what a new accomplished quarterback can do. After averaging an FBS-worst 4.9 yards per attempt as a team last year, UNM quarterback Dylan Hopkins has averaged 8.5 yards on 97 pass attempts through four games, surpassed by only Air Force’s Zac Larrier in the early going this fall.

To really drive home the level of improvement, consider that the Lobos had just 15 passing plays on 255 total attempts (5.9%) that went for 20 or more yards in 2022. By contrast, Hopkins already has 13 such plays in only 97 attempts (13.4%). While there’s plenty to be done in Albuquerque, the big-ticket transfer has been as advertised thus far.

Mountain West Football: Week 4 Winners And Losers

Running backs, Hawaii’s defense, and Utah State were among the weekend’s biggest winners and losers across Mountain West football.

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Mountain West Football: Week 4 Winners And Losers


Who came out ahead and who left something to be desired across the Mountain West in Week 4 of the college football season?


Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Encouragements and letdowns from the week that was.

Blocked field goals. Second-half surges and collapses. Fumble recoveries for touchdowns in the end zone on offense and defense. Six different games decided by eight or fewer points. The week in Mountain West football had it all, making it a great couple days of high drama, but here are the winners and losers from Week 4.

Winners

1. Mountain West running backs

In spite of so many graduations and transfers over the last couple of off-seasons, talent at the running back position might be as deep as ever across the Mountain West if Week 4 was any indication. On Friday night, Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty posted another Herculean performance in their 34-31 slugfest against San Diego State, accounting for 254 of the Broncos’ 409 yards of total offense with two touchdowns; Air Force, meanwhile, had two different players, Emmanuel Michel and John Lee Eldridge III, combine for 250 rushing yards and five touchdowns in a 45-20 rout over San Jose State.

The following day, New Mexico’s Jacory Croskey-Merritt and UNLV’s Jai’den “Jet” Thomas continued their strong runs throughout non-conference action, as well: Croskey-Merritt scored twice in the Lobos’ overtime road win at UMass, including the game-winner in overtime, while Thomas tallied four touchdowns and 100 rushing yards in the Rebels’ 45-28 road victory at UTEP. Wyoming’s Harrison Waylee continued to make an instant impact for the Cowboys, as well, ripping off a 75-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter to help set up the team’s late rally over Appalachian State.

In all, it was a great day to get things done on the ground.

2. Boise State punter James Ferguson-Reynolds

Now, you might be thinking, “A punter, really?” Ferguson-Reynolds, however, has been the best specialist in the Mountain West so far throughout this young campaign and the Broncos might not have been able to outlast San Diego State without his contributions on Friday.

The Aussie averaged 50.8 yards per attempt and pinned the Aztecs inside the 20-yard line three times on five punts, helping the Broncos to a ten-yard advantage in average starting field position (Boise State: own 38; SDSU: own 28). After four games, Boise State also ranks eighth nationally with 44.35 net yards per punt, so for all of the early teeth-gnashing about the Broncos’ uneven early showings, special teams have been on point.

3. Hawaii’s defense

It wasn’t a perfect performance, but the Warriors found a way to solve New Mexico State in a 20-17 victory. One big component of that turnaround revolved around eliminating big plays on defense: After allowing eight explosive plays for 183 yards in the first two quarters, Hawaii gave up just three for 63 yards after halftime.

Jacob Yoro’s unit also engineered a similar turnaround on third downs, shutting down NMSU on three such second-half opportunities after enabling the Aggies to convert 5-of-7 tries early on. While it remains to be seen how much they can surprise in conference play, it’s encouraging to see signs of progress in year two under head coach Timmy Chang.

Losers

1. Utah State

Give credit to the Aggies for fighting back to make their 45-38 loss to James Madison as close as it was, but it didn’t have to be that way. Blake Anderson’s squad got pasted in the first half while falling behind 38-17, coughing up eight yards per play and 360 yards of total offense while allowing three sacks throughout the first thirty minutes. Then, the Aggies made one too many mistakes down the stretch, giving the ball away three times in the second half even as they forced four turnovers of their own.

That tale of two halves made for another frustrating Utah State performance, as the Aggies clearly have the talent to make waves and contend for a bowl bid but rarely seem inclined to play disciplined football for a whole four quarters. After four games, USU might be the Mountain West’s most mercurial team.

2. Nevada

For the second straight week, the Wolf Pack showed more sustained signs of life, but their 17-0 halftime lead against Texas State proved to be alarmingly short-lived as the Bobcats ripped off 35 unanswered points and rolled up 377 yards of total offense in the third and fourth quarters.

Offensive inefficiencies didn’t help matters, either. The Wolf Pack still can’t run the football if quarterback Brendon Lewis isn’t scrambling — both Sean Dollars and Ashton Hayes averaged fewer than four yards per carry — and they fumbled four times in the contest (the two they lost both led directly to Texas State touchdowns). Now the Mountain West’s lone winless team, it could be a long slog through the conference schedule if the offense can’t hang on to the ball and the defense can’t stop giving up big plays.

3. San Jose State’s run defense

The Spartans had few answers for the powerful Air Force running game on Friday, but while the Falcons averaging 5.48 yards per carry might look like business as usual, it may also be the latest evidence that this San Jose State team might have a fatal flaw on its hands.

While the difficulty of the schedule certainly plays a part, SJSU has now given up five or more yards per carry in three of their four games and a total of 13 rushing touchdowns. Five different Spartan defenders had at least ten tackles against Air Force, but they mustered only three tackles for loss on 73 rushing attempts and that’s also been in keeping with their overall performance so far: SJSU has just 3.25 TFLs per game against FBS opponents, which is less than half of what they averaged in 2022.

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Week 4 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

Getting closer to conference play. We’re 25-12 on our bets for the season so far. Here’s what to look for in MW play this week.

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Week 4 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets


A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 4


Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 6-5 in week two and are 25-12 on the year. Continuing to come back down to Earth. Lets see if we can’t pick it back up.

Boise State @ San Diego State (+6.5, O/U 45.5)

Boise State is average. San Diego State is meh. Maybe once they both get to conference play, they’ll pick it up. I have more faith in Boise than I do the Aztecs even though this is in San Diego. The Aztecs haven’t inspired much confidence in them so far this season. Take the Broncos to cover.

Pick: Boise State -6.5

Air Force @ San Jose State (+5.5, O/U 46.5)

San Jose State lost on a pick six. Air Force looks to be a team even with replacing their skill positions. The Falcons are in the driver’s seat for a MW Championship berth at this moment. The Spartans seem like a team to play spoiler. Air Force covers on the road.

Pick: Air Force -5.5

New Mexico @ Massachusetts (-3.5, O/U 50.5)

If UMass wins, they get to claim New Mexico as a part of Massachusetts. They already beat New Mexico State earlier this season and now they get to play the Lobos who are coming off a loss to the Aggies in the Rio Grande Rivalry. Let down game is here, Minutemen cover.

Pick: UMass -3.5

Colorado State @ Middle Tennessee (-2.5, O/U 51.5)

Speaking of let down games, the Rams head to Tennessee after giving Deion Sanders and Co all they could handle. The Blue Raiders are coming off a victory and have a shot to put an arrow in CSU’s heart. CSU seems to have turn a corner and they look to be able to keep it up. Take the Rams outright.

Pick: Colorado State ML

Appalachian State @ Wyoming (-2.5, O/U 42.5)

If this was in North Carolina, I’d be taking App State. But since this is at altitude, I don’t want to touch the spread. The total seems low here. App State has had some high scoring games this season. And curiously, so have the Cowboys. The Texas game being the only one to be under the total here.

Pick: Over

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Mountain West Football: Week 3 Winners And Losers

Fresno State, UNLV, and Chevan Cordeiro are among the biggest winners and losers from Week 3 of Mountain West football action.

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Mountain West Football: Week 3 Winners And Losers


Who came out ahead and who left something to be desired across the Mountain West in Week 3 of the college football season?


Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Encouragements and letdowns from the week that was.

Conference play and heated rivalries and Power 5 victories, oh my! There was a little bit of everything on the table for fans across the Mountain West on Friday night and Saturday, though some results were certainly sweeter or more bitter to swallow than others.

Here are the winners and losers from Week 3 of Mountain West football.

Winners

1. Fresno State

Yes, Arizona State was short-handed but, man, that was a beatdown. The Bulldogs forced eight turnovers and had five sacks while Mikey Keene had 32-of-49 for 281 yards and two touchdowns in a 29-0 win.

Newcomers and veterans alike contributed on both sides of the ball: On offense, Erik Brooks had over 100 receiving yards for the second time in three games while Jalen Moss and Jaelen Gill each hauled in a touchdown pass. Defensively, Carlton Johnson intercepted three different ASU quarterbacks while Kemari Munier-Bailey forced a fumble and picked up a second that was put on the turf by Morice Norris Jr.

There’s still room for improvement since the Sun Devils managed six sacks of their own and the Bulldogs had only 22 points on seven red zone trips, but Fresno State is currently one of nine FBS teams (and the only Group of 5 team) with two Power 5 wins on the resume at this juncture. It’s hard to ask Jeff Tedford’s team for more than they’ve given through three weeks.

2. UNLV

On a weekend where multiple Mountain West teams disappointed, the Rebels survived a serious gut check at home against Vanderbilt on Saturday, falling behind 17-0 before scoring 30 unanswered points in the second and third quarters and surviving a late Commodores rally to walk away with a 40-37 victory.

That the Rebels did so without quarterback Doug Brumfield, who took an early beating and missed most of the game with injury, and linebacker Jackson Woodard, who was called for targeting and ejected in the second quarter, makes the win all the more impressive. Backup signal-caller Jayden Maiava stepped in to complete 19-of-33 passes for 261 yards and a touchdown, and he got lots of help from Ricky White (120 yards on seven receptions after halftime) down the stretch. Jerrae Williams continued his strong early-season play with eight tackles, two tackles for loss, a sack, and a fumble recovery for a touchdown while Johnathan Baldwin added a key interception. Fred Thompkins and Cameron Oliver each added two TFLs and a sack, as well.

In all, it was an early defining moment for UNLV head coach Barry Odom, whose team now looks well-positioned to make a run and establish themselves as contenders with several winnable games over the next month.

3. Air Force linebacker Alec Mock

If you’re looking for an early leader in the race for defensive player of the year, Mock has already built an impressive candidacy in just three games. On Friday against Utah State, the senior linebacker led the Falcons with 11 tackles and added two sacks and a forced fumble that led to a first-quarter touchdown.

While it’s still very early, it’s perhaps noteworthy that, according to Pro Football Focus, the only Mountain West player with a higher overall grade in the young season is fellow Air Force linebacker Bo Richter. Things will get tougher for the Falcons as they head deeper into conference play while also preparing for both Army and Navy, but it’s a very good sign for their conference championship hopes that the middle of the defense looks as good as it ever has in recent memory.

Losers

1. Colorado State

The Rams always seem to find groundbreaking new ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the Rocky Mountain Showdown and, following a week of (mostly) manufactured drama leading up to kickoff, Saturday night was no different. Despite finishing the game neck and neck with Colorado on a yards-per-play basis, converting 50% of 20 third-down opportunities, sacking Shedeur Sanders four times, and posting nine tackles for loss, sloppiness betrayed Colorado State in a 43-35 double-overtime defeat.

Never mind the pre-game heat on the field, 17 penalties for 187 yards is just the most extreme example of something that has been a problem in Fort Collins for a little while: The Rams had four games with at least ten flags last year, as well. They also turned the ball over four times, including twice in the red zone, while allowing too many big plays to Sanders in the second half (six chunk plays totaling 144 passing yards).

The silver lining is that the passing game finally came to life with Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, who had a few big-time throws en route to a 34-47-367-3-3 performance, but a lack of discipline is going to kneecap the team’s promise this fall if they can’t iron things out.

2. San Jose State quarterback Chevan Cordeiro

Cordeiro is a good, but not great, quarterback. Great quarterbacks find ways to close out games and the Spartans needed more than they got from their senior down the stretch against Toledo.

After starting the game 15-of-20 for 155 yards and a touchdown, Cordeiro faltered in the second half and finished 9-of-21 with 73 yards. He also threw a pick-six to Chris McDonald Sr. that proved to be the difference in a 21-17 loss to the Rockets. Granted, he didn’t have a lot of help from a running game that managed only 3.1 sack-adjusted yards per attempt and an offensive line that coughed up five sacks, but it was one of the weekend’s more disappointing performances when you consider the game was right there for the taking.

3. New Mexico’s defense

Speaking of disappointments, the Lobos defense was a total letdown in the Rio Grande Rivalry against New Mexico State, allowing 8.8 yards per play while mustering only two tackles for loss in a 27-17 defeat at home to their rivals.

Perhaps the performance shouldn’t have come as a total shock since NMSU had already averaged at least 6.7 YPP in each of their previous three games, but the Aggies made the most of limited opportunities and gashed the Lobos over and over with 288 total yards of offense on 12 chunk plays, accounting for 72.5% of their overall yardage on 26.7% of their plays. Pro Football Focus noted that the Lobos also had nine missed tackles as a unit on Saturday, so while all isn’t lost just yet, the pressure is on to tighten things up against a very beatable UMass team on the road next week before conference play kicks into gear.

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Week 3 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets

We got some conference action plus more chances for a ranked upset. Here’s how the MW shakes out in Week 3.

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Week 3 2023 Mountain West Football: Best Bets


A look at the Mountain West betting odds for Week 3


Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

What are the oddsmakers saying about these match ups?

Late in the week we will look at odds and recent lines and make our best picks and bets. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider.

We went 7-4 in week two and are 19-7 on the year. Slowly coming back down to earth. Let’s see if we can’t reverse the trend this week.

Utah State @ Air Force (-9.5, O/U 46.5)

The over in an academy game? Yes. This matchup has gone over the 46 points mark in every matchup bar one. And that one was a 42 point total. Air Force gets their first true defensive test of the year. Utah State meanwhile gets a chance to show everyone they are for real.

Pick: Over

North Dakota @ Boise State (No Line)

It’s the start of the Boise State revenge tour. The Broncos have looked oddly pedestrian the first two weeks of the year. North Dakota is running into a potential buzzsaw. Or we could see North Dakota give Boise State a scare. Doubtful, but anything is possible.

Pick: Boise State

San Diego state @ #16 Oregon sTate (-24.5, O/U 48.5)

There looked to be good things coming for the Aztecs this year. They thought they had found their QB in Jalen Mayden, but the San Diego State offense hasn’t looked as good as advertised. The defense hasn’t been great either, though it has kept them in games. The Beavers are looking to add another check mark to their resume.

Pick: Over

Vanderbilt @ UNLV (+4.5, O/U 59.5)

This is the trap game of the week for the Mountain West. We don’t actually know what the Rebels are going to bring to the table this season. And Vanderbilt’s performance against Hawai’i doesn’t inspire confidence in them to cover either. Under all the way.

Pick: Under

San Jose State @ Toldeo (-7.5, O/U 57.5)

I don’t know man. This just feel disrespectful to the Spartans. Yeah, Toldeo barely lost to Illinois, but Illinois laid an egg against Kansas. San Jose State has had to run through two Pac-12 schools that are on one so far this year. This should be a better indicator of where they stand and the cover seems real.

Pick: San Jose State +7.5

Wyoming @ #4 Texas (-29.5, O/U 49.5)

Whelp, good luck Wyoming. This is probably somewhat of a let down game for Texas after their win over Alabama last week. But it still won’t be close. The over feels safer because we could see Texas just relax and run their offense and keep everything in front of them on defense.

Pick: Over

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