New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills odds predictions pick betting line spread

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The New England Patriots (8-8) visit the Buffalo Bills (12-5) with playoff aspirations on the line Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Patriots vs. Bills odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

After beating the Miami Dolphins 23-21 as 3-point home favorites New Year’s Day, the Patriots and QB Mac Jones are still alive for the playoffs, but they really need to win Sunday.

They’re in if they win. If they lose, they need the Jaguars to win Saturday night at home against the Titans and the Steelers to lose Sunday at home to the Browns.

Jones, who has only thrown 11 TDs this season (tied for 28th among QBs), will need to perform Sunday against an emotional Bills team coming off a devastating circumstance in Week 17. S Damar Hamlin collapsed after a play and needed CPR on the field in the 1st quarter at the Bengals on Monday Night Football, leading to the cancelation of the game.

The good news is that Hamlin has shown “substantial improvement” in his recovery at a Cincinnati hospital.

Meanwhile, QB Josh Allen and WR Stefon Diggs will try to spoil the Patriots’ playoff dreams as the Bills look to win in order to secure the AFC’s No. 2 seed.

When the Bills won at the Patriots 24-10 in their 1st meeting this season — in the Week 13 Thursday night game — Allen threw for 223 yards and 2 TDs and RB Devin Singletary rushed for 51 yards and a TD. Two weeks ago, RB James Cook had his best performance of the season, rushing for 99 yards and 1 TD on 11 carries in a 35-13 win at Chicago. The backfield combination of Singletary and Cook will be tough for the Patriots to handle.

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Patriots at Bills odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:21 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Patriots +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Bills -380 (bet $380 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +7.5 (-109) | Bills -7.5 (-111)
Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -109 | U: -111)

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Patriots at Bills key injuries

Patriots

CB Jonathan Jones (chest) questionable
WR Jakobi Meyers (shoulder) questionable
CB Jalen Mills (groin) out
TE Jonnu Smith (concussion) out

Bills

S Damar Hamlin out

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Patriots at Bills picks and predictions

Prediction

Bills 27, Patriots 13

Moneyline

PASS.

There’s no question that Buffalo (-380) is the better team. The Bills will be playing with a ton of emotion. There is no chance they lose, but the price is steep. Only include Buffalo (-380) in a parlay if you want to bet this matchup.

Against the spread

BUFFALO -7.5 (-111) is the way to bet this game.

Buffalo is 7-7-1 ATS this season. This includes the 24-10 victory as a 3.5-point favorite at New England Dec. 1.

Sunday will be a mirror of that game as Buffalo will be able to pass on the Patriots, who are missing much of their secondary to injuries. Not only will the Bills win, but they will do so emphatically.

Over/Under

UNDER 43.5 (-111) is the correct side.

The Under is 10-5 in Buffalo games this season, while the Under is 7-9 in New England games.

With TE Jonnu Smith out with an injury and WRs DeVante Parker and Jakobi Meyers ailing, the Patriots only have RB Rhamondre Stevenson as a healthy weapon on offense. Buffalo’s defense will be able to swallow him up and limit New England’s ability to score.

While Buffalo is healthy on offense, it will not have an offensive explosion, helping the Under cash. Allen will do enough to win and cover the 7-point spread, but doing enough to get to the total, something the Bills have been routinely unable to do, might be asking too much.

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Super Wild Card Weekend New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

For the third time this season, the AFC East-champion Buffalo Bills (11-6) and New England Patriots (10-7) face off in a big AFC East matchup. This time, it happens during the Super Wild Card Weekend. The game is slated for 8:15 p.m. EST, Saturday at Highmark Stadium. We analyze the Patriots vs. Bills odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

They split games this season; both played during December, so the squads are very familiar with each other. New England won 14-10 at Buffalo Dec. 6, while Buffalo took care of business with a 33-21 road victory Dec. 26, as the two went back-and-forth atop the AFC East.

The Patriots have won four of the last five in Buffalo — the one loss coming last season. Granted, New England has looked very different at quarterback the past two seasons.

In its early December win, Patriots QB Mac Jones attempted just three passes, completing two for 19 yards in poor, windy weather conditions. Instead, they relied on RBs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, who combined for 34 carries. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is the ultimate game master; him relying heavily on the ground game and not on his rookie quarterback tonight would not be surprising.

Weather — at least very cold temps — will play a factor again. While wind is only predicted at 5 m.p.h., it’s expected to be just 4 degrees.

The Bills offense runs through QB Josh Allen, who has been in MVP consideration again this season. He has, however, struggled at home vs. New England:

2021: 15/30, 145 pass yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 FumL, 2 sacks
2020: 11/18, 154 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 sack
2019: 13/28, 153 pass yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 4 sacks

Also see: All Wild Card odds and lines

Patriots at Bills odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8:50 a.m. ET.

Money line: Patriots +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Bills -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +5.5 (-112) | Bills -5.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -117 | U: -103)

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Patriots at Bills key injuries

Patriots

RB Damien Harris (hamstring) questionable
WR Jakobi Meyers (thigh) questionable
OT Isaiah Wynn (hip/ankle) OUT
DE Lawrence Guy (shoulder) questionable
LB Dont’a Hightower (knee) questionable
S Adrian Phillips (knee) questionable
PK Nick Folk (shoulder) questionable

Bills

No injuries

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Patriots at Bills odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Bills 19, Patriots 17

Money line

The Bills are the more talented team, and at -240, the juice on an outright win isn’t too pricey, but my confidence in them winning outright is waning on game day. Belichick will have the Patriots ready with a successful blueprint.

But which Buffalo team will show up?

It’s not that long ago (Nov. 21) Buffalo lost 41-15 at home to the Colts, or 9-6 to the Jaguars on the road. They beat the teams they should have (Panthers, Falcons and Jets) in December but went 1-2 versus playoff teams (New England twice, Tampa Bay), including that loss to this New England team.

I have no problem sprinkling a half-unit on the Patriots at +190 pulling an upset, but it isn’t the best bet to focus on, and I’d prefer to have wiggle room getting some points. PASS.

Against the spread

That said, I’m definitely digging the +5.5 line (-112) for the underdog Patriots, which feels about two points or more too wide in what should be a slow-paced, low-scoring, tight game in freezing temps.

The Patriots are 10-7 ATS and 6-2 ATS on the road this season. Buffalo is 9-6-2 ATS, but 6-3 at home.

In the last three matchups in Buffalo, just 4.3 points separated the teams on average, with six points being the largest margin in a 2019 New England victory.

Hit the PATRIOTS +5.5 (-112) to cover for a full unit.

Over/Under

Only one of the past five meetings between these teams in Buffalo has gone over 40 points. On the season, Buffalo is 8-9 vs. the O/U, while New England is 9-8.

Both teams rushed for better than 2,150 yards — ranking in the top eight in the league — during the regular season, and both squads use multiple players to get the job done. That kills clock quickly. Look for long, sustained drives and ball-possession football to be the game script from both teams keeping the scoring opportunities lower and driving the score down.

Love the UNDER (43.5, -103) play here for at least a unit, maybe two.

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday Night Football’s New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The New England Patriots (8-4) visit the Buffalo Bills (7-4) in a pivotal AFC East clash in the Week 13 Monday Night Football game. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium. Below, we look at the Patriots vs. Bills odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The Patriots are the hottest team in football, having won their last six games after starting the season 2-4. Their most recent win came in a 36-13 blowout of the visiting Tennessee Titans in Week 12. What’s most impressive about their winning streak is that all but one of their victories have been by at least 18 points.

The Bills cruised to an easy 31-6 win over the New Orleans Saints Thanksgiving Day, bouncing back from an embarrassing 41-15 home loss to the Indianapolis Colts the week prior. Since their bye in Week 7, the Bills are just 3-2 with losses to the Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars, and with wins over the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and Saints.

Patriots at Bills odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 12:20 p.m. ET.

Money line: Patriots +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Bills -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +2.5 (+102) | Bills -2.5 (-125)
Over/Under (O/U): 40.5 (O: -117 | U: -103)

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Patriots at Bills key injuries

Patriots

C David Andrews (shoulder) questionable
DL Christian Barmore (knee) questionable
LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (ribs) questionable
OL Trent Brown (calf) questionable
K Nick Folk (knee) questionable

Bills

OL Cody Ford (bicep) questionable

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Patriots at Bills odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Patriots 20, Bills 17

Money line

The PATRIOTS (+122) are on an absolute tear and although some of their opponents were on the weaker side, they did beat the Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns and Titans during their winning streak.

The winning continues Monday night against the Bills, who have been wildly inconsistent, particularly on offense.

Pats head coach Bill Belichick will draw up a game plan to bottle up Bills QB Josh Allen, forcing him into a turnover or two.

BET PATRIOTS (+122) to win outright, having beaten the Bills in seven of their last 10 meetings.

Against the spread

New England covered the spread in all six games during its recent winning streak and is now 8-4 ATS this season. The Bills are surprisingly 6-4-1 ATS despite losing to the Jags and getting blown out by the Colts. They did have blowout wins over the Dolphins, Washington, Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs earlier in the season.

All of Buffalo’s wins have been by at least 15 points. So, when it wins, it does so comfortably.

I just don’t think this is a game the Bills win, and I love getting the points with the Patriots on the road. BET PATRIOTS +2.5 (+102).

Over/Under

These are two of the highest-scoring teams in football. The Patriots average 28.0 points per game (PPG), while the Bills average 29.6.

They’re also two of the best defenses as the Patriots rank first in least points allowed (15.8 PPG) and the Bills are second (16.5 PPG).

Given how many turnovers each defense forces and how turnover-prone the opposing quarterbacks are, this will be a lower-scoring game in Buffalo.

BET NDER 40.5 (-103).

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and prediction

Previewing the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills Week 8 betting odds and lines, with NFL betting picks, tips and predictions.

The New England Patriots (2-4) are heading to Western New York this weekend to take on the Buffalo Bills (5-2). The Patriots are in desperate need of a win after losing three straight, and another loss would push the Bills further ahead in the AFC East. The game is slated for 1 p.m. ET from Bills Stadium. Below, we preview the Patriots-Bills betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.

Patriots at Bills betting odds and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 2 p.m. ET.

Money line: Patriots +180 (bet $100, win $180) | Bills -213 (bet $213, win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Patriots +4 (-110) | Bills -4 (-110)
Over/Under: 40.5 (O: -115, U: -106)

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Patriots at Bills game notes

The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games, while the Bills are 0-3 ATS in their last three.
The total has gone Over in five of the Bills’ seven games this season, but it has gone Under in each of the Patriots’ last three games.
The Patriots are 9-1 straight up against the Bills in their last 10 meetings, including a 6-3-1 ATS record.
New England ranks 29th in scoring and 23rd in yards per play. Buffalo is only 20th in scoring but averages 5.9 yards per play to rank 11th in NFL.
The Patriots defense has had the third-fewest plays run against it of any team in the NFL and ranks 12th in scoring defense.

Patriots at Bills key injuries

Patriots

WR N’Keal Harry (concussion) questionable
WR Julian Edelman (knee) out
CB Stephon Gilmore (knee) questionable

Bills

OT Cody Ford (knee) questionable
S Micah Hyde (concussion) questionable
CB Josh Norman (hamstring) questionable
DL Quinton Jefferson (knee) questionable

Patriots at Bills: Odds, prediction, betting lines and picks

Prediction

Bills 24, Patriots 17

Money line (?)

QB Josh Allen and the Bills offense have cooled off after a red-hot start. They’ve lost two of their last three badly to the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs and barely beat the New York Jets in Week 7. The Bills are still the better team and New England is struggling even more than Buffalo. It’s hard to feel overly confident in this game, but I’m taking the BILLS (-213) in this pivotal AFC East tilt.

Against the spread (?)

The spread is set at 4 points in favor of the Bills at home. That was to be expected, especially after seeing how poorly the Patriots have played in their last three games. QB Cam Newton is struggling mightily, to the point where he was benched in favor of Jarrett Stidham against the San Francisco 49ers last week.

Take the BILLS -4 (-110) to win by at least 5 points.

Over/Under (?)

The Over/Under is set lower at only 40.5 points, which is partly because of how good these defenses are and partly due to the likelihood of rain and high winds impacting the game. Throwing the ball will be a challenge in 20-plus mph winds, which favors the Bills offense. It’ll be close to the projected total, but I’m going with the OVER 40.5 (-115).

Want action on this NFL game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Also see:

ESPN’s Bart Scott calls for the firing of Bill Belichick, the general manager (Patriots Wire)
7 cornerbacks the Bills could target at NFL trade deadline (Bills Wire)

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