Tag: betting the line

Betting the NFL Line: Week 3

How should you locate this week’s betting allowance?

This week features games with some huge divisional implications and a couple that could have an impact in January in the NFC.

The Indianapolis Colts look to be the only team capable of knocking off the Titans,  and they head into Tennessee desperate for a win. The Chargers are looking to be relevant and going into Kansas City will be the truest test of where they’re at. Sunday’s late window of games will include four teams viewed as the top threats to represent the conference in the Super Bowl as Tampa Bay heads to L.A. to face the Rams and Green Bay travels to San Francisco to play the 49ers.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Sept. 22, at 8:30 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook. 

Carolina (-420) at Houston (+320)

Houston simply isn’t a good team and they will be facing long odds in most of their games. Carolina seems a bit oversold as a 7.5-point favorite (Carolina -115, Houston -107), but I’m not going to be on Houston to win anything all season with the potential exception of their rematch against Jacksonville. Take the Panthers and lay the 3.5 points (-115).

Chicago (+250) at Cleveland (-320)

Chicago is likely ready to make the switch to Justin Fields sooner than later, because the Bears have struggled out of the gate. The Browns are 6.5-point favorite (Chicago -102, Cleveland -122). Cleveland has a banged-up receiver corps, but their plan will likely be to run Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt 35 times, which typically ends well. I wish the spread was a point or two lower for confidence’s sake, but take the Browns and lay the points (-122).

Cincinnati (+145) at Pittsburgh (-180)

The Bengals are improving, while the Steelers offense looks too much like it did late last season. Pittsburgh is favored by 3.5 points (Cincinnati -120, Pittsburgh -105). I think the Steelers will win the game, but it will probably come down to the last possession, which makes the cushion on the point spread look better, because this would be a statement win for the Bengals if they pull it off. Take the Bengals plus 3.5 points (-120).

Los Angeles Chargers (+225) at Kansas City (-290)

The Chargers have the offense to hang with Kansas City’s suspect defense and this one has the makings of a shootout the Chiefs pull away from in the second half. The Over/Under is 54.5 (-108 Over, -112 Under). Typically the best advice is to stay away from the Over when the point gets up into the middle 50s, but both teams are capable of lighting up the other’s defense. Take the Over of 54.5 (-108).

Arizona (-340) at Jacksonville (+260)

The NFC West is going to fatten up on teams like Jacksonville and Houston, which makes the Cardinals being a 7.5-point favorite (Arizona -105, Jacksonville -120) make sense as the oddsmakers try to get people to jump on Jacksonville. I would have set the line closer to 10 and still not bite on the Jags. Take the Cardinals and lay the 7.5 points (-105).

Baltimore (-420) at Detroit (+320)

Detroit is coming off a short week after collapsing in the second half Monday at Green Bay and now face a Ravens team coming off a defining win against the Chiefs. The Ravens are an 8.5-point favorite (Baltimore -112, Detroit -108) and should run away from Detroit, like most quality teams do. Take the Ravens and lay the 8.5 points (-112).

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Atlanta (+125) and New York Giants (-155)

Is there a way to bet both teams to lose? The Giants are 2.5-point favorite (Atlanta +105, New York -130) and the only factor that has me leaning the way of the Giants is being at home and being rested after playing last Thursday. Take the Giants and lay the 2.5 points (-130).

Washington (+310) at Buffalo (-410)

The Bills were unimpressive in their first home game of the season, but it was because they went up against a quality Pittsburgh defense. They’re facing another quality defense in Washington and have an Over/Under of 45.5 points (Over -108, Under -112). Buffalo has the offense to put up enough points to hit this number, but Washington will likely give them all they can handle. Take the Under at 45.5 points (-112).

Indianapolis (+190) at Tennessee (-240)

The Titans made a statement winning in Seattle last week and come home to face an Indianapolis team that is 0-2 out of the gate. Tennessee is favored by 5.5 points (Indianapolis -110, Tennessee -110). The Titans have leaned heavily on Derrick Henry when they need a win and creating separation between themselves and the rest of the division makes this game fit into the “must-win” category. Take the Titans and lay the 5.5 points (-110).

New Orleans (+125) at New England (-155)

The Over/Under on this game is surprisingly low at 42.5 points (Over -108, Under -112), but both teams have enough playmakers on offense and defense that the point is too low. It wouldn’t be surprising if there was a defensive/special teams score (or two) and that may be necessary. Take the Over at 42.5 points (-108).

New York Jets (+420) at Denver (-600)

The Broncos are the most prohibitive favorite of the week at 10.5 points (New York -120, Denver -105), but the Jets defense has been surprisingly stout despite an offense that turns the ball over too often. If the Jets can simply hold the ball and not commit critical turnovers, that spread will be hard for Denver to cover. Take the Broncos plus the 10.5 points (-120).

Miami (+165) Las Vegas (-205)

The Raiders have proven they’re a legitimate playoff contender and come up against a Dolphins team without Tua Tagovailoa, who is sidelined with a rib fracture. The Raiders are a 3.5-point favorite (Miami -107, Las Vegas -112), which seems a little low for a team going up against a quarterback who didn’t get first-team reps all summer and into the regular season. Like it or not, the Raiders are legit. Take the Raiders and lay the 3.5 points (-112).

Seattle (-120) at Minnesota (+100)

It’s hard not to take Seattle since Russell Wilson has a 7-0 career record against Minnesota, but this could be the game the Vikings have to win to end that streak and save their season. That being said, this has all the makings of a one-score game decided at the end. The Over/Under is 55.5 points (-105 Over, -115 Under). Both Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins are capable of scoring 27 or more points. Take the Over (-105).

Tampa Bay (-125) at Los Angeles Rams (+102)

This is another game that has a very high Over/Under of 55.5 points (-110 Over, -110 Under), especially considering how good the defenses are for both teams. The offenses are going to press the issue, but this game will need seven touchdowns and three field goals to hit the Over. With as strong as both teams are in their front seven, that doesn’t seem realistic – far from impossible, but not realistic. Take the Under (-110).

Green Bay (+145) at San Francisco (-180)

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite (Green Bay -120, San Francisco -105). I was struggling with not taking Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on the moneyline, because it isn’t often you win more than you’re willing to lose betting on Rodgers. However, being given 3.5 points and Rodgers is just too hard to pass up. Take Green Bay plus the 3.5 points.

Philadelphia (+155), Dallas (-190)

Dallas has dominated the rivalry over the last six years, but the Eagles have won two of the last three. This is a tough one, because Dallas is capable of blowing out Philly, but I don’t believe the reverse is true. Dallas is favored by 3.5 points (Philadelphia -108, Dallas -112). It’s a spread that makes sense, because there hasn’t been a game between these two that has been decided by less than six points in their last 10 meetings. If you think Philly is going to win, bet the moneyline. But, I’m with Dallas in this one. Take the Cowboys and lay the 3.5 points (-112).

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Betting the NFL Line: Week 2

Don’t just be lucky. Make smarter betting decisions for Week 2.

As we begin Week 2, there will be 16 teams that won in Week 1 looking to improve to 2-0 and start positive momentum building and 16 teams desperately looking to avoid dropping to 0-2.

There will be only three matchups featuring teams that are both 1-0 and three games with teams that are both 0-1. With 10 teams at 1-0 facing teams at 0-1, there could be a lot of separation when the week is over between the haves and the have nots of the critical early portion of the 2021 season.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Sept. 16, at 10:00 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

New York Giants (+145) at Washington (-180)

Hard as it may be to believe, Giants QB Daniel Jones is 4-0 in his career against Washington. That will be enough to sway some to the moneyline. I’m not that excited about it, but Washington is favored by 3.5 points (New York -120, Washington -105). I’m willing to take those points, hoping Saquon Barkley is pushed hard and Jones looks to keep his record perfect against his division rival. Take the Giants plus 3.5 points (-120)

New England (-270) at New York Jets (+210)

Rookies Mac Jones and Zach Wilson are going to see things defensively they’ve never seen live or on film, which is what makes offensive coaches lose their hair. Only one Week 2 game has a lower Over/Under than this one at 44.5 points (-108 Over, -112 Under). My biggest concern with taking the Under is the likelihood of one or both rookie QBs coughing up a turnover to give the other team a short field that adds points. However, I’ll bet on both QBs throwing passes away and taking sacks instead of insane chances. Take the Under (-112)

Las Vegas (+190) at Pittsburgh (-240)

The Raiders are coming off an unexpected win over the Ravens (who are better than the Steelers) but are on a short week and heading across the country to face a team fresh off an upset road win over Buffalo with one more day of rest and preparation. I think the 5.5 points Pittsburgh is favored by (Las Vegas -107, Pittsburgh -115) is too high (I considered taking the moneyline, but it’s too steep a cost). But, all signs point to a Vegas letdown. With some hesitation, Take the Steelers and lay the 5.5 points (-115)

Denver (-260) at Jacksonville (+205)

Jacksonville’s stock took a huge hit with a resounding loss to Houston, which explains their big number against a Denver team that is far from dominant. The Over/Under in this one is 45.5 points (Over -105, Under -115). Denver’s defense is coming after Trevor Lawrence. Teddy Bridgewater is a consummate game manager and, more times than not, needs 10-play drives or more to score touchdowns – a “death by paper cut” guy. They are two quarterbacks who will look to play it safe – one by force, one by design. That lends itself to low-scoring, field position-dominated games. Take the Under (-115)

Buffalo (-190) at Miami (+155)

On face value, this should look like Miami win. The Dolphins can start the season with wins over both New England and Buffalo, but the Bills are the better team. Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite (Buffalo -105, Miami -112) and, if they’re hitting on all cylinders, they can cover that with ease. I would have the spread closer to 6.5 than 3.5. Take the Bills and lay the 3.5 points (-105)

Los Angeles Rams (-190) at Indianapolis (-108)

I am very bullish on the NFC West and am unimpressed with the Colts cornerbacks, which were exposed by Russell Wilson. The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite (Los Angeles -112, Indianapolis -108). It’s hard to imagine the Colts starting 0-2 at home, but they knew this was the start of the schedule in April. The Rams defense has the ability to abuse Carson Wentz, who tends to fold like a card table when pressured early. Take the Rams and lay the 3.5 points (-112)

Cincinnati (+110) at Chicago (-135)

The Bengals won in Week 1 – no thanks to incredibly bad coaching decisions along the way – but weren’t the better team. They made the three or four biggest plays of the game. The Bears are 2.5-point favorites (Cincinnati -107, Chicago -115), which tells you on a neutral field, the Bengals are the better team. They are not. Take the Bears and lay the 2.5 points (-115)

San Francisco (-190) at Philadelphia (+155)

There isn’t a bet among this that I really like – which is the ideal way to set a betting line – but the 49ers have better depth on both sides of the ball and are being favored on the road by 3.5 points (San Francisco -110, Philadelphia -110). Jimmy Garoppolo is looking over his shoulder and needs to play the best ball of his career. The Eagles are a work-in-progress two years behind that of the 49ers. Take the 49ers and lay the 3.5 points (-110)

Houston (+500) at Cleveland (-750)

The spread is extremely high for the Browns at 11.5 points (Houston -107, Cleveland -115). That being said, Cleveland should have beaten Kansas City – the best team in the AFC. Now they’re salty, at home, and playing the worst team in the AFC (with all due respect to their Week 1 win over the Jags). This has beatdown written all over it. Take the Browns and lay the 11.5 points (-115)

New Orleans (-190) at Carolina (+155)

The Saints are coming off a shocking dominance of Green Bay, and the Panthers coasted past the Jets. Something smells like a trap for the Saints, but they’re the more talented team, and Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara will likely cancel each other out. Seeing as both of them capable of making the big plays that shorten a field, the Over/Under of 44.5 points (-115 Over, -105 Under) seems a little too low given these two generational talents at their position. Take the Over (-115)

Atlanta (+470) at Tampa Bay (-700)

This one hinges only on the point spread or the Over/Under – nobody should bet this moneyline. The Bucs are going to dismantle Atlanta. If the Falcons lost by 26 at home to Philadelphia, they should lose by 50 to Tampa. I rarely like a 12.5-point spread, but I do here. Matt Ryan has a made a career of garbage time yards and points, so it comes to the Over/Under of 51.5 points (-115 Over, -105 Under). Atlanta likely needs to score only 17 points to hit this number. Take the Over (-115)

Minnesota (+160) at Arizona (-200)

The Vikings lost to the worst team in the AFC North, now face the Cardinals, and are on the road again. Both teams have solid defenses, which makes the Over/Under of 50.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under) is a shade too high. To hit that number may require a defense/special teams touchdown to hit. Both teams are capable of putting up big points, but the defenses may require as many field goals as touchdowns. Take the Under (-110)

Tennessee (+190) at Seattle (-240)

There is one overriding factor that makes the most sense here. The Titans are at their best with saddling up Derrick Henry and riding him 25 times. The Seahawks have a back in Chris Carson capable of doing the same thing. This is a game that seems destined to have four or five 10-play scoring drives. That takes too much time off the clock to have an Over/Under of 54.5 points (-108 Over, -112 Under). Take the Under (-112)

Dallas (+135) at Los Angeles Chargers (-170)

There are few things I dislike more than seeing Dallas as the consensus choice to win the NFC East every year when they rarely do – and when they do, they tend to exit the playoffs quickly and quietly. However, the Cowboys offense is capable of putting up big points and are rested from a Thursday opener when they gave the Bucs everything they wanted at home. They’re daring Cowboys apologists to jump on. I’m not one, but I like this. Take the Cowboys on the Moneyline (+135)

Kansas City (-190) at Baltimore (+155)

The best thing that can happen for fans in this game is that one team gets ahead by two scores early. Then, it’s on. For my money, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are the two most explosively talented quarterbacks in the NFL. I didn’t think they could put a number too high for the Over/Under. They made it 55.5 points (-108 Over, -112 Under). That is about my limit, but not with Mahomes and Jackson in prime time. Take the Over (-108)

Detroit (+470) at Green Bay (-700)

This one seems too easy. ESPN has to allow a diversity of teams to play under the MNF spotlight, and the Lions are one of those teams. But they schedule them in the untenable position of being offered up to Green Bay at Lambeau. It’s not fair, but that’s part of the TV contract. Green Bay was humiliated by New Orleans in Week 1. The Packers are a 10.5-point favorite (Detroit -107, Green Bay -115). Expect that to be covered by halftime. R-E-L-A-X. Take the Packers and lay the 10.5 points (-115)

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA). 

Betting the NFL Line: Week 1

The best picks for betting against the point spread, the over/under or the moneyline.

The NFL season has begun and everyone begins with a clean slate. It won’t last for long as we find out which teams look to be improved in 2021 and which struggle out of the gate. We will select a bet on each game that we like the most – betting against the point spread, the over/under or the straight up moneyline.

Odds provided by Tipico (updated Wednesday, Sept. 8, at 8:30 p.m. ET)

Dallas (+310) at Tampa Bay (-410)

The Bucs are coming into the 2021 season as the defending champs and are 7.5-point favorites (Dallas -107, Tampa Bay -115). With questions surrounding the health of Dak Prescott and Pro Bowl guard Zack Martin out with COVID protocol, the Cowboys have too many unknowns to ignore. Take the Bucs and lay the 7.5 points (-115).

Arizona (+130) at Tennessee (-160)

The oddsmakers clearly aren’t sold on the Titans being able to cover the 3.5- point spread (Arizona -130, Tennessee +105). Arizona is a trendy pick to be a playoff contender, but traveling across the country and playing at 10 a.m. body clock time is a lot to ask. Getting more than you bet on Tennessee at home looks like a good call. Take the Titans and lay the 3.5 points (+105).

Minnesota (-190) at Cincinnati (+155)

Minnesota had a brutal defense last season, but have a lot of talented players coming into 2021 that weren’t on the roster last season. The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite (Minnesota -108, Cincinnati -112). While I believe Minnesota will win, this could come down to the final drive to do so, and Minny is giving away too many points for a scenario like that. Take the Bengals plus the 3.5 points (-112).

Seattle (-155) at Indianapolis (+125)

I was surprised when I saw Seattle favored by just 2.5 points (Seattle -130, Indianapolis +105). It has the smell of a trap, but Carson Wentz has missed too much time with a foot injury, and Seattle doesn’t give away games. This one seems like a game that should have a spread a point or two higher. Take Seattle and lay the 2.5 points (-130).

New York Jets (+190) at Carolina (-240)

The over/under is 43.5 points (-117 over/-103 under) – the second lowest O/U of the week. But, it’s there for a reason. The Jets are starting rookie Zach Wilson in his debut, and he’s going against Sam Darnold, who the Jets gave up on. It doesn’t take a lot to get this game over, but, barring a defensive or special teams score helping out, it’s going to be more difficult. Take the under (-103).

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Jacksonville (-175) at Houston (+140)

I’m no fan of the Jags being a legitimate contender, but Houston has completely overhauled its roster and has the potential to only win a couple of games all season. The Jaguars are 3.5-point road favorites (Jacksonville -102, Houston -122), which speaks to how bad things are in Houston. The Texans are going to be hard to watch and help Trevor Lawrence make a solid debut. Take Jacksonville and lay the points (-102).

Philadelphia (+135) at Atlanta (-170)

Both teams have recent Super Bowl history but have both fallen on hard times over the last couple of years. They have a relatively high over/under of 48.5 points (-108 over/-112 under). Jalen Hurts still needs to prove he can be field general and Matt Ryan will start a season without Julio Jones for the first time in 10 years. Neither sounds like a formula for a shootout. Take the under (-112).

Pittsburgh (+220) at Buffalo (-280)

These two both think they have a Super Bowl team assembled and have an over/under of 48.5 points (-105 over/-115 under). Buffalo has the ability to get ahead by double digits in this game, which plays in Big Ben’s strength of throwing 40 times to keep up. Take the over (-105).

Los Angeles Chargers (-108) at Washington (-112)

The point spread has Washington favored by a half-point. It doesn’t seem possible to anticipate a tie, which would be the only reason to take the hook if you think the Chargers are going to win. Washington’s defense is worth watching, but the Chargers offense will do enough to win. Take the Chargers on the moneyline (-108).

Cleveland (+205) at Kansas City (-260)

The Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites (Cleveland -115, Kansas City -107), which seems about right. Cleveland is going to try to dominate the game on the ground, but you need long drives to make that happen. Kansas City’s quick-strike ability may force the Browns to try to keep pace and that plays into the Chiefs’ hands. Take the Chiefs and lay 6.5 points (-107).

Denver (-160) and New York Giants (+130)

This is a make-or-break season for Daniel Jones, who needs to step up his game. Denver comes in as a 3.5-point road favorite (Denver +105, New York -130). While I’m leaning for Denver to win the game, giving away more than three points on the road to a team capable of containing Teddy Bridgewater and keeping the game close, it may be asking too much. Take the Giants and the 3.5 points (-130).

Miami (+130) at New England (-160)

The Patriots are being shown a lot of respect as a 3.5-point favorite (Miami -130, New England +105). Without the security of a veteran like Cam Newton, if Mac Jones struggles in his debut, there is no security blanket behind him, and that could be bad news. Take Miami on the moneyline (+130).

Green Bay (-200) at New Orleans (+160)

The Saints are playing their first opener without Drew Brees in 15 years, which explains why Green Bay is a 3.5-point road favorite Green Bay -115, New Orleans -107). Jameis Winston is no Drew Brees, and the Packers will be salivating at the chance to attack a defense with a short field when Winston inevitably makes the mistakes that result in his trademark turnovers. Take the Packers and lay the 3.5 points (-115).

Chicago (+290) at Los Angeles Rams (-380)

Matthew Stafford makes his debut with the Rams against a team he has played twice a year his entire career. The Rams are a 7.5-point favorite (Chicago -110, Los Angeles -110) and, while that is a lot to give away, Stafford knows all of their weaknesses. Take the Rams and lay the 7.5 points (-110).

Baltimore (-210) at Las Vegas (+170)

The only reason this game is on Monday night is a full house in Las Vegas to give the Raiders a national showcase. But, the Raiders had an awful defense last year, struggling against the run and the pass. Baltimore is a 4.5-point favorite (Baltimore -108, Las Vegas -112), which seems too low given Lamar Jackson can scorch them on the ground and through the air. The Raiders will have to pick their poison and live with the consequences. Take the Ravens and lay the 4.5 points (-108).