For the past few months, experts have projected Georgia‘s Charlie Condon or Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana as the top pick in the 2024 MLB draft, but Florida two-way star [autotag]Jac Caglianone[/autotag] has joined the conversation, according to MLB Pipeline senior writer Jim Callis.
In his latest mock draft, Callis has the Cincinnati Reds taking Caglianone at No. 2 overall, but he adds that there is around a 20 percent chance that Cags will go first overall. As with most things in life, it’s a matter of money.
In the MLB draft, each pick in the first 10 rounds has a designated slot value. Teams can offer more or less, but a player doesn’t have to sign anything they don’t want to. That gives younger players a bit more leverage and older players more leverage, but at the top of the draft, it’s all about who is willing to give up money to go first overall.
Condon wants his money, and rightfully so, but it’s moved him out of the conversation for the top pick. If Cleveland can get Bazzana or Caglianone to sign under slot ($10,570,600), they’ll take the savings and spend it later on in the draft.
Callis believes Bazzana is more likely to come down to the $8.5 million-to-8.7 million range Cleveland wants to stay well under. He adds that “Caglianone is more in play with the Guardians than has been realized,” indicating the Gator’s price may have come down, especially for the No. 1 overall pick.
Still, he’s likely to receive full slot value at either of the next two picks, each of which is over $9 million. The top two signing bonuses in draft history were signed by Paul Skenes ($9.2 million) and Dylan Crews ($9 million) last year.
The last piece of the puzzle is West Virginia’s JJ Wetherholt, who missed half of last season with a hamstring injury. He’s a similar player to Bazzana and could come at a bigger discount.
“For now — and much can change in the next two weeks — I think Cleveland’s choice comes down to Bazzana vs. Wetherholt. Caglianone is more in play with the Guardians than has been realized, while Condon is fourth in the pecking order if he wants full slot.”
Last year, Gators fans saw Wyatt Langford slip to fourth overall after figuring to be a top-3 pick. That shouldn’t happen with Caglianone. There’s growing certainty that he’ll come off the board by the time the Oakland Athletics come to pick at No. 4.
Should Caglianone be drafted first or second overall, it would make him the highest-drafted player in program history passing Mike Zunino (No. 3 overall in 2012).
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