The No. 24 Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-2, 2-2 SEC) and the No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1, 3-1) play Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mississippi State vs. Alabama odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Bulldogs will be playing with heavy hearts after 18-year-old freshman OL Sam Westmoreland passed away Wednesday.
Mississippi State is looking to bounce back after a 27-17 loss at Kentucky last week. The 17 points was the 2nd-lowest offensive output of the season, and it was just the second non-cover after a 4-1-1 ATS start.
Alabama was upended 52-49 last week at Tennessee, failing to cover for the 2nd-straight game after a 4-1 ATS start. Offense hasn’t been the problem, as the Crimson Tide has scored 49 or more points in each of the past 4 starts by QB Bryce Young, last season’s Heisman Trophy winner.
Mississippi State is No. 24 and Alabama is No. 6 in the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
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Mississippi State at Alabama odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mississippi State +800 (bet $100 to win $800) | Alabama -1400 (bet $1,400 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Mississippi State +21.5 (-112) | Alabama -21.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 60.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Mississippi State at Alabama picks and predictions
Prediction
Alabama 38, Mississippi State 20
Moneyline
Alabama (-1400) hasn’t lost consecutive games in the regular season since a 4-game skid to close out the 2007 season, including that memorable upset loss to UL Monroe. Despite the near-certainty of a Bama win, you cannot risk 14 times your potential return.
PASS.
Against the spread
MISSISSIPPI STATE +21.5 (-112) is the play in this SEC West battle in Tuscaloosa.
It’s terrible what happened to Westmoreland, but the Bulldogs players are likely to rally around the adversity and play hard for his memory, as well as for each other. It would be an amazing Hollywood ending if the Bulldogs were able to win, but that’s not happening. But a cover, and keeping it within 3 touchdowns, seems like the way to go.
Over/Under
UNDER 60.5 (-107) is the way to go here.
The Under has hit in 4-straight road games for Mississippi State, while going 27-13 in the past 40 SEC games for the Bulldogs. The Under is also 15-5 in the past 20 October games for MSU.
Despite the 101-point combined points at Tennessee last week, Alabama has still been trending to the Under. The Under has cashed in 5 of the past 6 at home for Bama, while going 6-2 in the past eight against winning teams.
In addition, the Under is 17-4-1 in the past 22 in this series and 5-1-1 in the past 7 meetings in Tuscaloosa.
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