Tag: Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers odds predictions pick betting line spread

Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Minnesota Twins (65-60) open a 2-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers (68-57) Tuesday. First pitch from American Family Field is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Twins lead 2-0

The Twins have won 5 of their last 7 games, extending their lead to 6 games over the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central. Minnesota was last in action with a 2-0 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday.

The Brewers return home from a 9-game road trip in which all 3 of their series resulted in sweeps. They were on the winning end of 2 of those, including a weekend set in Texas in which they outscored the Rangers 21-11.

Twins at Brewers projected starters

RHP Bailey Ober vs. LHP Wade Miley

Ober (6-6, 3.40 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 113 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 5-3 win vs. Detroit Tigers last Tuesday
  • 2023 road stats: 4-3, 3.88 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 20 ER) with 10.5 K/9 across 8 starts
  • One career start vs. Brewers: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-2 victory on June 14

Miley (6-3, 3.05 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 through 82 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 7-1 road loss at Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday
  • 2023 home stats: 4-1, 3.07 ERA (44 IP, 15 ER) with 5.9 K/9 in 8 starts
  • Career vs. Twins: 1-0, 4.18 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 11 ER) with 9.1 K/9 in 4 starts and 1 relief appearance, the most recent start coming in 2021

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Twins at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Twins -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+150) | Brewers +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Twins at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 4, Brewers 3

Moneyline

Ober is sporting a 5.52 ERA across 31 IP over his last 6 starts but he has registered a 34/4 K/BB and that ERA has been inflated by a .400 BABIP and 18.2% HR/FB rate. He’s set to face a Milwaukee offense that ranks 27th in wRC+ vs RHP, so look for him to keep its bats in check.

Miley has had an excellent season but in 3 starts since returning from an elbow injury he has recorded a weak 9/7 K/BB. Look for the TWINS (-105) to come out on top.

Run line/Against the spread

Miley doesn’t have electric stuff but as shown by his ERA, he gets the job done. He has surrendered 3 ER or fewer in 14 of his 16 starts on the season and even if his team comes up short, he should keep it close. SKIP the Run line and look for value elsewhere.

Over/Under

We already noted Milwaukee’s struggles against right-handers and Minnesota has had similar issues vs. southpaws this season. The Twins rank 25th in wRC+ and 28th in OBP against lefties, while whiffing at the 3rd highest rate.

Both starting pitchers are solid and should fare well against offenses they match up well against. Neither team is likely to put up a lot of runs in this game, so while the total is a low one, the Under still looks like the side to take. Either play UNDER 8 (+100) OR TAKE THE ALTERNATIVE TOTAL UNDER 8.5 (-120).

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Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (53-44) host the Minnesota Twins (52-44) Tuesday at American Family Field for the start of an interleague back-to-back with the 1st pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 1-1 with both teams scoring 7 runs.

Minnesota swept a back-to-back with the Detroit Tigers last weekend in Detroit but the Twins are just 5-5 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games. The Twins are 3.5 games ahead in the AL Central.

Milwaukee is also 5-5 SU in the last 10. The Brewers, who  lead the NL Central by 2 games, dropped the series finale vs. the Colorado Rockies 2-0 at home after winning the first 3 games of that 4-game set.

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Twins at Brewers projected starters

RHP Dylan Bundy vs. LHP Ethan Small     

Bundy is 6-4 with a 4.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 80 1/3 IP over 16 starts.

  • Last start: Won 6-3 July 16 at home vs. the Chicago White Sox with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
  • 2022 road splits: 3-3 with a 6.02 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.46 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 in 10 starts.

Small (0-0, 6.75 ERA) is making the 2nd career start of his rookie season.

  • Last start: No-decision in Milwaukee’s 7-6 win at the Chicago Cubs May 30 with 2 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 4 K.
  • The 1st-round selection in the 2019 MLB Draft is Milwaukee’s 6th-ranked prospect according to FanGraphs.

Twins at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:58 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Twins -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Brewers -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+155) | Brewers +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Twins at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 7, Twins 4

Money line

BET the BREWERS (-117) because they hit righties better than the Twins (-103) hit lefties and Milwaukee’s bullpen has better advanced numbers than Minnesota’s.

Plus Bundy has been awful on the road this year and the Brew Crew’s ML has been steamed up from a -110 opener by sharp action, per Pregame.com.

Finally, the Brewers are 7-3 SU in interleague play while the Twins are 4-6 SU.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Twins are a feisty 13-7 RL as road underdogs whereas the Brewers are just 16-28 at home.

Also, given Milwaukee’s mediocre performance over the last 20 games and Small being a rookie, the Brewers’ alternate RL is a no-go as well.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 9.5 (-105) because the Twins are 13-6-1 O/U as road underdogs and 7-1-2 O/U in Bundy’s 10 road starts with an average final score of 5.8-5.2.

But, the Under 9.5 (-120) appears to be the sharper play and Milwaukee’s ML is my favorite look in this game.

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Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (1-1) play the Milwaukee Brewers (1-1) Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Sunday’s meeting is the rubber match of this three-game set. The Twins won a pitcher’s duel 2-0 Saturday to even the series. The Brewers took Thursday’s opener 6-5 in 10 innings.

Minnesota LHP Jose Berrios pitched six perfect innings with 12 strikeouts Saturday before turning it over to the bullpen, which eventually lost the no-hitter and perfect game but held on for the win.

Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes also flirted with a no-hit bid. He didn’t allow a hit until Twins CF Byron Buxton‘s solo homer in the top of the 6th, which ended up being Burnes’ final batter.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

RHP Michael Pineda takes the hill Sunday for the Twins. Pineda was 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 26 2/3 IP across 5 starts in 2020.

He didn’t make his first start last season until Sept. 1 because he was serving a 60-game suspension that started in 2019.

  • Last start vs. Brewers: No-decision (6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 6 K, 0 BB) in a 5-4 loss May 27, 2019.
  • 2021 Spring Training: 0-0 with a 7.04 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 14 H, 10 K, 1 BB) in 2 starts.

RHP Adrian Houser makes his first start of the season for the Brewers. 2020 was a rough year for Houser, who was 1-6 with a 5.30 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 56 IP over 12 games (11 starts).

  • 2020 vs. Twins: 0-1 with 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 K and 1 BB in 1 start.
  • 2021 Spring Training: 1-0 with a 5.60 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 11 ER, 21 H, 16 K, 6 BB) across 6 starts.

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Twins at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Twins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Twins -1.5 (+140) | Brewers +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Brewers 6, Twins 3

Money line (ML)

Bet BREWERS (-105) for 1 unit because I favor Milwaukee’s Houser over Minnesota’s Pineda in the starting pitching matchup.

Twins DH Nelson Cruz had an impressive plus-12 run value vs. sinkers last season and Houser’s most used pitch is a sinker. Since the Brew Crew are the home team, this game is played under National League rules, which doesn’t have a DH. Because Cruz doesn’t play the field, the only chance Minnesota has at using him is as a pinch hitter.

Plus, there are a few indicators Houser could have a bounce-back season in 2021.

Houser’s FIP was only slightly lower than his ERA, but his BABIP was high (.325), which is a luck-based metric, and Houser’s hard-hit percentage, exit velocity and fly-ball rate are far lower than MLB averages.

Finally, I think Pineda will pitch closer to his 2021 Spring Training form this season—which was poor—than his awesome 2020 regular-season performance.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a “LEAN” on Brewers +1.5 (-165) because I could be into a parlay with Milwaukee’s run line and another run line or a favorite’s money line to get an even- or plus-money payout.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS because despite being very confident in Milwaukee’s pitching staff there’s just too wide a range of outcomes for Pineda. If 2020 Pineda is on the mound, I’d bet the Under but I’m staying away from this total.

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Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (0-1) meet the Milwaukee Brewers (1-0) in Game 2 of their three-game set Saturday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee rallied Thursday with a 3-run bottom of the 9th to force extra innings, which led to a CF Lorenzo Cain fielder’s choice walk-off win against Minnesota on Opening Day.

Season series: Brewers 1-0.

RHP Jose Berrios is on the mound Saturday for the Twins. In 2020, Berrios was 5-4 with a 4.00 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 63 IP across 12 starts.

  • 2020 vs. Brewers: Win in 6 IP with 0 ER, 1 H, 9 K and 1 BB in 1 start.
  • 2021 Spring Training: 2-2 with a 3.50 ERA (18 IP, 7 ER, 19 H, 18 K and 5 BB) in 5 starts.

RHP Corbin Burnes makes his 2021 season debut for the Brewers. Last season, he was 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 13.3 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 59 2/3 IP over 12 appearances (9 starts).

  • 2020 vs. Twins: No-decision in 5 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 5 K and 3 BB in 1 start.
  • 2021 Spring Training: 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 26 K and 6 BB) in 5 starts.

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Twins at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Twins +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Twins +1.5 (-175) | Brewers -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Brewers 4, Twins 1

Money line (ML)

Burnes’ second favorite pitch in his arsenal is his cutter and it is electric. Several Twins hitters have a negative run value vs. cutters including 3B Josh Donaldson and CF Byron Buxton.

Also, Berrios’ numbers significantly decline in road starts throughout his career, seeing increases in ERA (3.57 at home to 4.79 on the road) and WHIP (1.15 at home to 1.38 on the road) while striking out one less batter per nine innings.

This is a “Pros vs. Joes” scenario in the betting market with roughly 85% of the money on the Brew Crew but around 80% of the total bets placed are on the Twins, according to Pregame.com.

It’s generally more profitable to follow the money rather than the crowd of people. The overnight baseball bettors hammered Milwaukee’s money line, which caused bookmakers to lower it to the current number.

We are a little late to the party so BET BREWERS (-135) for a half-unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

We can essentially copy and paste the same market movement handicap to this section. The “sharp” money is rolling with the Under but the public is on the Over.

Minnesota’s batting numbers declined in 2020’s 60-game sprint and Milwaukee had a bottom-10 lineup last season.

For me, Burnes is a sleeper for the NL Cy Young coming into this year and he pitched great in Spring Training.

I am a tad nervous the Brewers’ lineup can get to Berrios, who’s less effective on the road, but he was dealing in his start last year against Milwaukee.

BET UNDER 7.5 (-105) for a half-unit.

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Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins meet the Milwaukee Brewers in the opener Thursday at 2:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Kenta Maeda is the projected starting pitcher for the Twins. He was 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 66 2/3 IP over 11 starts in 2020. Last season, Maeda went 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA in two starts against the Brewers with an opponent batting average of just .120 across 14 2/3 innings with no home runs allowed and 17 strikeouts.

RHP Brandon Woodruff is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He was 3-5 with a 3.05 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 73 2/3 IP over 13 starts in 2020. Woodruff made one start against the Twins last season, allowing two earned runs, nine hits and a walk with three strikeouts across five innings in a loss at Target Field Aug. 20.

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Twins at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:01 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Twins +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Brewers -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Twins -1.5 (+155) | Brewers +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Twins 4, Brewers 2

Money line (ML)

The TWINS (+100) are a nice play riding the shoulders of Maeda, although this should be a low-scoring, well-pitched game inside the warmth of American Family Field and the lack of adverse weather conditions.

Minnesota won two of its three games in Milwaukee last season, outscoring the Brew Crew 20-10 in the three games. That includes a 12-2 laugher behind Maeda Aug. 12.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The TWINS -1.5 (+155) are the lean here as they hit the run line in each of their two wins at Milwaukee in 2020. I wouldn’t go crazy, especially on Opening Day, but it’s worth a small-unit bet at plus money.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 7.5 (-105) is the lean. Maeda didn’t give up much in the shortened season of 2020, his first with the Twins. He chopped his WHIP down to 0.75 and his K/BB ratio was at 8.0, nearly double his previous career best. He will be hard on the Milwaukee bats, and runs will be at a premium early.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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