[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Minnesota Twins (65-60) open a 2-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers (68-57) Tuesday. First pitch from American Family Field is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 2-0
The Twins have won 5 of their last 7 games, extending their lead to 6 games over the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central. Minnesota was last in action with a 2-0 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday.
The Brewers return home from a 9-game road trip in which all 3 of their series resulted in sweeps. They were on the winning end of 2 of those, including a weekend set in Texas in which they outscored the Rangers 21-11.
Twins at Brewers projected starters
RHP Bailey Ober vs. LHP Wade Miley
Ober (6-6, 3.40 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 113 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 5-3 win vs. Detroit Tigers last Tuesday
- 2023 road stats: 4-3, 3.88 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 20 ER) with 10.5 K/9 across 8 starts
- One career start vs. Brewers: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-2 victory on June 14
Miley (6-3, 3.05 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 through 82 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 7-1 road loss at Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday
- 2023 home stats: 4-1, 3.07 ERA (44 IP, 15 ER) with 5.9 K/9 in 8 starts
- Career vs. Twins: 1-0, 4.18 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 11 ER) with 9.1 K/9 in 4 starts and 1 relief appearance, the most recent start coming in 2021
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Twins at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+150) | Brewers +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Twins at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Brewers 3
Moneyline
Ober is sporting a 5.52 ERA across 31 IP over his last 6 starts but he has registered a 34/4 K/BB and that ERA has been inflated by a .400 BABIP and 18.2% HR/FB rate. He’s set to face a Milwaukee offense that ranks 27th in wRC+ vs RHP, so look for him to keep its bats in check.
Miley has had an excellent season but in 3 starts since returning from an elbow injury he has recorded a weak 9/7 K/BB. Look for the TWINS (-105) to come out on top.
Run line/Against the spread
Miley doesn’t have electric stuff but as shown by his ERA, he gets the job done. He has surrendered 3 ER or fewer in 14 of his 16 starts on the season and even if his team comes up short, he should keep it close. SKIP the Run line and look for value elsewhere.
Over/Under
We already noted Milwaukee’s struggles against right-handers and Minnesota has had similar issues vs. southpaws this season. The Twins rank 25th in wRC+ and 28th in OBP against lefties, while whiffing at the 3rd highest rate.
Both starting pitchers are solid and should fare well against offenses they match up well against. Neither team is likely to put up a lot of runs in this game, so while the total is a low one, the Under still looks like the side to take. Either play UNDER 8 (+100) OR TAKE THE ALTERNATIVE TOTAL UNDER 8.5 (-120).
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]