Clark’s ‘Caps: Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns Game 5 player prop predictions

Geoff Clark breaks down two NBA player prop bet predictions for Saturday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns NBA Finals Game 5 showdown.

The Milwaukee Bucks (2-2) visit the Phoenix Suns (2-2) Saturday for Game 5 of the NBA Finals at Footprint Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:05 p.m. ET. Below, we’ll highlight the top NBA player prop bet predictions for Bucks-Suns Game 5.

Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton shredded Phoenix with their two-man game Wednesday as they combined for 66 points on 50% field goal shooting with 20 rebounds and 12 assists.

On the other hand, aside from Devin Booker almost all of the Suns struggled offensively in Game 4. Booker put up 42 points on 17-of-28 shooting, but Chris Paul added just 10 points and SF Mikal Bridges scored only 7 points.

Also see: Bucks at Suns Game 5 odds, picks and prediction

Bucks at Suns Game 5 prop bet predictions

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:14 p.m. ET.

Phoenix Suns SF Mikal Bridges OVER 15.5 points, assists & rebounds “PRA” (-130)

Bridges struggled over the past two Finals games in Milwaukee but typically role players are more reliable at home in the playoffs and four of Bridges’ five highest game scores during the postseason have been in Phoenix.

Also, Bridges has gone Over 13.5 “PRA” in four of the six Bucks-Suns games this year (including the regular season) and averaged 19.9 “PRA” during the regular season and is averaging 17.1 “PRA” in the playoffs.

Furthermore, Bridges is more of a 3-and-D guy. He has 10 multi-assist games in these playoffs, five or more rebounds in nine playoff games and Phoenix’s fourth-highest usage rate in the Finals (minimum of five minutes played).

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Milwaukee Bucks SG Pat Connaughton OVER 1.5 made 3-pointers (-135)

First of all, I hate that I’m betting two Overs for player props in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. Typically as postseason series wind down, games get played at a slower pace and fewer points are scored.

However, Connaughton’s 3-point player prop has been easy money so far in the Finals. He’s made at least two 3-pointers in every Finals game (and five straight playoff games) with the second-most 3-point attempts for the Bucks in this series while shooting 45.8% from three.

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Moreover, Connaughton is averaging 31.0 minutes per game in the Finals not only because he’s a knockdown 3-point shooter but because he can also defend guards, wings and stretch-4s.

In fact, Connaughton has a plus-16 net rating this series and has been tasked with chasing Phoenix’s 3-and-D guys off the 3-point line. which has been a key wrinkle in Milwaukee’s defensive scheme in the Finals.

What I’m getting at is Connaughton should get the necessary 3-point volume and brings other things to the table, which ensures he gets enough playing time to go Over his 3-pointers made prop.

Want some action on these props? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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NBA Finals: Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns Game 5 odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns NBA Finals Game 5 odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Phoenix Suns (2-2) host the Milwaukee Bucks (2-2) for Game 5 of the NBA Finals at their self-titled arena Saturday. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:05 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Bucks-Suns odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Milwaukee evened the Finals vs. Phoenix with a 109-103 Game 4 win and cover in a contest that cashed the Under 220.5 closing total.

Suns’ Devin Booker bounced back from a disappointing Game 3 to torch the Bucks for 42 points on 60.7% shooting, but Chris Paul had one of his worst showings of the postseason with 10 points on 38.5% shooting with five turnovers and a team-worst minus-10 in +/-.

For the Bucks, both Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo were brilliant in Game 4.

Middleton put up a 40-spot with six rebounds and four assists. Giannis had a 26-14-8 stat line with three steals and two blocks – one of which on Suns big Deandre Ayton in the final minute was an all-time NBA Finals defensive play.

Also see: Updated 2021 NBA Finals best bet

Suns at Bucks: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Bucks +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Suns -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Bucks +4 (-110) | Suns -4 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 218.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Suns at Bucks: Key injuries

Suns

  • PF Dario Saric (knee) out

Bucks

  • SG Donte DiVincenzo (foot) out

Special NBA Finals Betting Promotion!

Place a $1 bet on Phoenix or Milwaukee’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a 3-pointer during the game.

Promotion available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C.

Place all of your legal, online sports bets at BetMGM! Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!

Suns at Bucks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Bucks 114, Suns 106

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BUCKS (+145) for a half unit only because Milwaukee plus the points is a sharper wager, but I want to “sprinkle” on the underdog’s money line to maximize the value of the Bucks.

Phoenix is actually shooting a lot better from the field than Milwaukee in the Finals. but the Bucks have negated that by completely dominating the paint.

For instance, Milwaukee’s offensive rebounding rate is more than 12% higher than Phoenix’s in this series. The Bucks are outscoring the Suns in the paint 49.5-38.0 points per game and are scoring nearly double the second-chance points per game in the Finals.

Moreover, Phoenix plays with far too much finesse and needs outside jumpers to go down, which isn’t as reliable or consistent as Milwaukee’s physical style of play.

Finally, CP3’s Game 4 stinker is getting a lot of publicity, and rightfully so, but Bucks PG Jrue Holiday was awful as well in that game. I’d argue both are due to bounce-back efforts but would cancel each other out.

However, the Bucks are also bringing a two-time MVP in Giannis and Middleton who’s a former All-Star and go shot for shot with Booker.

Again, the better play is Milwaukee plus points, but consider betting the BUCKS (+145) to take Game 5 and control of the series.

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Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the BUCKS +4 (-110) heavier than or instead of Milwaukee’s money line based on the previously stated logic.

Furthermore, the market is barreling into the Suns as more than 80% of the money bet is on both Phoenix’s money line and to cover the spread.

If those betting splits are the same at tip-off then the House is going to be pulling for the Bucks, and typically in sports betting we want to be with the House and against the public.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 218.5 (-110) because I like how each offense stacks up against their opponent, and both teams want to get out in transition.

However, I’m not confident enough in that analysis to wager any money on the total. These Finals games should be lower scoring the further we get into this series because these teams know what each other is going to run and are well prepared to defend it.

Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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