The Phoenix Suns (2-2) host the Milwaukee Bucks (2-2) for Game 5 of the NBA Finals at their self-titled arena Saturday. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:05 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Bucks-Suns odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Milwaukee evened the Finals vs. Phoenix with a 109-103 Game 4 win and cover in a contest that cashed the Under 220.5 closing total.
Suns’ Devin Booker bounced back from a disappointing Game 3 to torch the Bucks for 42 points on 60.7% shooting, but Chris Paul had one of his worst showings of the postseason with 10 points on 38.5% shooting with five turnovers and a team-worst minus-10 in +/-.
For the Bucks, both Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo were brilliant in Game 4.
Middleton put up a 40-spot with six rebounds and four assists. Giannis had a 26-14-8 stat line with three steals and two blocks – one of which on Suns big Deandre Ayton in the final minute was an all-time NBA Finals defensive play.
Also see: Updated 2021 NBA Finals best bet
Suns at Bucks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Bucks +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Suns -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Bucks +4 (-110) | Suns -4 (-110)
- Over/Under: 218.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Suns at Bucks: Key injuries
Suns
- PF Dario Saric (knee) out
Bucks
- SG Donte DiVincenzo (foot) out
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Suns at Bucks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bucks 114, Suns 106
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the BUCKS (+145) for a half unit only because Milwaukee plus the points is a sharper wager, but I want to “sprinkle” on the underdog’s money line to maximize the value of the Bucks.
Phoenix is actually shooting a lot better from the field than Milwaukee in the Finals. but the Bucks have negated that by completely dominating the paint.
For instance, Milwaukee’s offensive rebounding rate is more than 12% higher than Phoenix’s in this series. The Bucks are outscoring the Suns in the paint 49.5-38.0 points per game and are scoring nearly double the second-chance points per game in the Finals.
Moreover, Phoenix plays with far too much finesse and needs outside jumpers to go down, which isn’t as reliable or consistent as Milwaukee’s physical style of play.
Finally, CP3’s Game 4 stinker is getting a lot of publicity, and rightfully so, but Bucks PG Jrue Holiday was awful as well in that game. I’d argue both are due to bounce-back efforts but would cancel each other out.
However, the Bucks are also bringing a two-time MVP in Giannis and Middleton who’s a former All-Star and go shot for shot with Booker.
Again, the better play is Milwaukee plus points, but consider betting the BUCKS (+145) to take Game 5 and control of the series.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET the BUCKS +4 (-110) heavier than or instead of Milwaukee’s money line based on the previously stated logic.
Furthermore, the market is barreling into the Suns as more than 80% of the money bet is on both Phoenix’s money line and to cover the spread.
If those betting splits are the same at tip-off then the House is going to be pulling for the Bucks, and typically in sports betting we want to be with the House and against the public.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 218.5 (-110) because I like how each offense stacks up against their opponent, and both teams want to get out in transition.
However, I’m not confident enough in that analysis to wager any money on the total. These Finals games should be lower scoring the further we get into this series because these teams know what each other is going to run and are well prepared to defend it.
Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
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