Bills vs. Colts: 3 key matchups to watch in Week 10

Bills vs. Colts: 3 key matchups to watch in Week 10

The Buffalo Bills (7-2) will face the Indianapolis Colts (4-5) on the road in their upcoming Week 10 matchup.

The games within the game will make all the difference for the Bills as they try to win in Indianapolis for the first time since 1999.

Here are three key matchups to watch during Sunday’s Bills-Colts contest:

Bills front seven vs. Jonathan Taylor

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The Bills’ front seven has been inconsistent this year in defending the ground game, and they have been under the microscope this week after allowing the Miami Dolphins to run all over them. Running backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert each averaged over five yards per carry and combined for 119 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. Now, they have Jonathan Taylor to worry about.

Taylor has been one of the best backs in the NFL when healthy since he entered the league. This year he is averaging an impressive 4.8 yards per carry and is 19th in the NFL in rushing yards (502), just ahead of James Cook (496).

The Bills will need execution and effort from their front seven throughout the game to keep Taylor in check. Guys like DaQuan Jones, Ed Oliver, and Greg Rousseau will be counted on to make an impact at the line of scrimmage.

CB Taron Johnson vs. WR Josh Downs

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Slot cornerback Taron Johnson, a second-team All-Pro last year, will be tested by a young up-and-comer in Week 10. Second-year wide receiver Josh Downs operates out of the slot and has quickly gained rapport with quarterback Joe Flacco.

In four games together this year, Downs has averaged 9.75 targets, 7.5 receptions, and 69.25 receiving yards per contest. He has the most catches from Flacco by a decent margin and has been the most-targeted receiver in all four games.

Johnson has a tough task with keeping tabs on Downs and also being ready to head downhill to tackle Taylor in the running game. It’s a tall task but that’s nothing new for one of the best nickel corners in the game.

QB Joe Flacco vs. Bills pass coverage

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We could more widely talk about the playcalling duel between Shane Steichen and Bobby Babich, but let’s zoom in a bit. Flacco vs the Bills’ coverage will be a chess match to watch.

Flacco has been around the block. In his 17th year, he is still proving he can be effective. He has seven touchdowns and two interceptions through four games played, and his 94.5 passer rating ranks 14th in the NFL.

The Bills passing defense struggled against the Dolphins last week as Tua Tagovailoa completed 89% of his passes. The Bills currently rank middle-of-the-pack in passing defense DVOA (15th).

The defense might have a little bit of an easier day if WR Michael Pittman Jr. can’t play due to injury, but what would really help them is having more of a pass rush.

Trojans take center stage on Sunday Night Football

Sam Darnold and Michael Pittman were able to share the field on a very special USC Sunday night in the NFL.

On Sunday evening, the Indianapolis Colts battled the Minnesota Vikings in a nationally-televised NFL showdown. For USC football fans, it was an opportunity to watch several of their former stars in the spotlight. They took hold of the spotlight and didn’t let it go.

Former USC quarterback Sam Darnold had an impressive evening for the Vikings. He completed 28 of his 34 pass attempts for 290 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions, leading Minnesota to a 21-13 win.

Perhaps Darnold’s most impressive play of the night was a touchdown he threw on the run. Under pressure by several Indianapolis defenders, Darnold rolled to his right and delivered a dime to fellow Trojan Jordan Addison, who hauled in a diving catch in the corner of the end zone.

Addison finished the game with five receptions for 42 yards and a touchdown. He also added a nine-yard carry on the ground.

Meanwhile for the Colts, fellow former USC wideout Michael Pittman Jr. had a relatively quiet night. The 2019 Biletnikoff Award finalist caught just one pass for 14 yards.

Darnold and Pittman were teammates for two seasons at USC. They connected on several big plays during their time together in Cardinal and Gold, perhaps none bigger than a deep ball down the sideline during the 2017 Pac-12 Championship Game against Stanford.

Visit our friends at Fighting Irish Wire, Buffaloes Wire, Ducks Wire, UW Huskies Wire and UCLA Wire.

Fantasy football: Where to draft Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr.

Analyzing Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr.’s 2024 fantasy football ADP and where to target him in fantasy drafts.

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Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. has been impressive throughout his first 4 NFL seasons. Pittman was taken with the 34th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft out of USC. Despite eclipsing 100 receptions last season, Pittman has still yet to be named to a Pro Bowl. Below, we look at Michael Pittman’s 2024 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Pittman Jr. is expected to take a different step forward, catching more TDs with QB Anthony Richardson leading the charge in Indy. The star receiver is intriguing in terms of fantasy value.

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Michael Pittman Jr.’s ADP: 40.59

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Pittman Jr.s’ ADP in redraft leagues puts him in the range of the 4th to 6th round depending on the size of the league. His ADP is the second-highest on the Colts, only behind RB Jonathan Taylor (11.52), which ranks 10th overall.

Among wide receivers, Pittman’s ADP puts him 22nd at the position, behind Miami’s Jaylen Waddle (40.56), Giants rookie Malik Nabers (38.40) and Seattle’s DK Metcalf (37.74). Philadelphia’s DeVonta Smith (42.68) and San Francisco’s Brandon Aiyuk (42.98) are 23rd and 24th, respectively.

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Michael Pittman Jr.’s 2023-24 stats

Games: 16

Receptions | targets: 109 | 156

Receiving yards: 1,152

Receiving touchdowns: 4

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Where should you draft Pittman Jr.?

Pittman’s fantasy value should get a boost with the return of Richardson, who was hurt early last season. However, in the games which Richardson took the field, Pittman failed to hit 100 yards in all 4 games, hitting 100-plus yards in 3 games throughout last season in total. Richardson is a dual-threat QB and isn’t quite as proven as a passer.

Last season, the Colts were led by Pro Bowler QB Gardner Minshew, who threw for 3,305 yards and 305 completions. With Taylor healthy and Richardson leading the charge, Pittman’s fantasy value may actually take a bit of a hit after a solid 2023-24 campaign.

Getting across the end line is how Pittman unlocks his fantasy value. He only had 4 touchdowns last season. However, the Colts offense should be a more dynamic group with Richardson which, ideally, will result in more scoring opportunities for Pittman.

He’s still going to eat up the bulk of the targets in this Colts offense, but topping 156 from last season is not expected from the 6-foot-4, 26-year-old receiver. Pittman has eclipsed 129 or more targets in 3 consecutive seasons, so seeing anywhere between 120 and 140 is doable even if Richardson opts to run more.

Draft Pittman in the 4th round in PPR formats and let him drop to the 5th in non-PPR leagues. He should be good for 90-plus catches, but his consistent scoring has let managers down. He’s most valuable in PPR formats.

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Fantasy Football Consistency Rankings – Wide Receivers

Consistent wideouts are key to a high fantasy scoring every week.

This ranking considers wide receivers that started at least 11 games in 2023. Fantasy points were derived using one point per 10 yards rushed or received, six-point touchdowns and one point receptions. The consistency in scoring at least 15 fantasy points per game declined rapidly.

See Also:  Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Tight Ends

Wide Receiver Consistency

Wide Receiver 15-pt % GMS 15-PT 25-PT 5-CATCH 100 YDS TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown 88% 16 14 4 14 9 10
CeeDee Lamb 76% 17 13 8 12 8 10
Tyreek Hill 75% 16 12 9 14 8 11
Justin Jefferson 70% 10 7 5 8 5 4
Tank Dell 60% 10 6 3 6 3 6
Mike Evans 59% 17 10 5 9 3 11
Stefon Diggs 59% 17 10 3 12 5 6
Michael Pittman Jr. 56% 16 9 1 13 3 4
Keenan Allen 54% 13 7 4 11 5 5
Deebo Samuel 53% 15 8 3 6 3 5
A.J. Brown 53% 17 9 3 13 7 5
Garrett Wilson 53% 17 9 0 11 2 3
Puka Nacua 53% 17 9 3 11 7 6
Brandon Aiyuk 50% 16 8 2 9 7 6
Chris Olave 50% 16 8 0 11 5 5
Jayden Reed 50% 16 8 1 4 1 6
Adam Thielen 47% 17 8 3 12 3 4
DeVonta Smith 44% 16 7 0 9 2 7
Jakobi Meyers 44% 16 7 1 8 0 7
Christian Kirk 42% 12 5 0 5 2 3
Cooper Kupp 42% 12 5 3 6 4 5
Davante Adams 41% 17 7 2 12 3 6
DJ Moore 41% 17 7 4 10 5 6
Jordan Addison 41% 17 7 2 7 2 8
Amari Cooper 40% 15 6 1 7 5 4
Nico Collins 40% 15 6 4 8 5 7
Marquise Brown 38% 13 5 0 5 0 4
Courtland Sutton 38% 16 6 0 5 0 10
DK Metcalf 38% 16 6 1 8 3 6
Gabe Davis 38% 16 6 0 4 3 7
Zay Flowers 38% 16 6 0 9 1 5
Calvin Ridley 35% 17 6 2 8 4 6
DeAndre Hopkins 35% 17 6 2 6 3 5
Terry McLaurin 35% 17 6 1 10 1 4
Tyler Lockett 35% 17 6 1 8 0 4
Rashid Shaheed 33% 15 5 0 3 1 5
Tee Higgins 33% 12 4 2 4 2 3
Brandin Cooks 31% 16 5 1 3 1 8
Ja’Marr Chase 31% 16 5 4 9 5 5
Rashee Rice 31% 16 5 0 8 2 7
Diontae Johnson 31% 13 4 0 3 0 5
Joshua Palmer 30% 10 3 0 3 2 2
Noah Brown 30% 10 3 1 3 2 2
George Pickens 29% 17 5 2 5 5 4
Romeo Doubs 29% 17 5 0 3 0 7
Jaylen Waddle 29% 14 4 2 8 3 4
Curtis Samuel 25% 16 4 0 5 1 3
Chris Godwin 24% 17 4 1 11 2 2
Darius Slayton 24% 17 4 0 1 1 4

Wide receivers have become more consistent as the NFL becomes more vested in their passing offenses. Amon-Ra St. Brown led this metric by a healthy amount while CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill both shined as well. Justin Jefferson was at the top of every category after 2022 but dropped due to injury and now contends with a rookie quarterback. Even though he missed seven games, he was still the No. 4 wideout for consistency.

Tank Dell only played in ten games but broke his leg. But he ended as the No. 5 wideout in consistency.  There were thirteen wideouts with more than 50% consistency. But that shows for consistent points from your receivers, you need to pick one from the first two rounds.

25 points Gms 5 Catches Gms 100-Yard  Gms Touchdowns Gms
Tyreek Hill 9 A  St. Brown 14 A St. Brown 9 Tyreek Hill 11
CeeDee Lamb 8 Tyreek Hill 14 CeeDee Lamb 8 Mike Evans 11
Justin Jefferson 5 M Pittman Jr. 13 Tyreek Hill 8 A  St. Brown 10
Mike Evans 5 A.J. Brown 13 A.J. Brown 7 CeeDee Lamb 10
Amon-Ra St. Brown 4 CeeDee Lamb 12 Puka Nacua 7 Courtland Sutton 10
Keenan Allen 4 Stefon Diggs 12 Brandon Aiyuk 7 Jordan Addison 8
DJ Moore 4 Adam Thielen 12 Justin Jefferson 5 Brandin Cooks 8
Nico Collins 4 Davante Adams 12 Stefon Diggs 5 DeVonta Smith 7
Ja’Marr Chase 4 Keenan Allen 11 Keenan Allen 5 Jakobi Meyers 7
Tank Dell 3 Garrett Wilson 11 Chris Olave 5 Nico Collins 7
Stefon Diggs 3 Puka Nacua 11 DJ Moore 5 Gabe Davis 7
Deebo Samuel 3 Chris Olave 11 Amari Cooper 5 Rashee Rice 7
A.J. Brown 3 Chris Godwin 11 Nico Collins 5 Romeo Doubs 7
Puka Nacua 3 DJ Moore 10 Ja’Marr Chase 5
Adam Thielen 3 Terry McLaurin 10 George Pickens 5
Cooper Kupp 3

Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb were featured in all categories. But Mike Evans tied for No. 3 in 25-point games and Mike Evans tied for No. 1 with 11 games with a touchdown. Almost a quarter of starting quarterbacks are new to their team, so there may be more consistency changes for 2024 than recent years.

Here are the details of Michael Pittman Jr.’s new contract with Colts

Here’s our breakdown of Michael Pittman Jr.’s contract extension.

The Indianapolis Colts and wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. got a deal done on a new three-year contract that will keep him with the team through the  2026 season.

After using the franchise tag to extend their window of negotiation, both sides were able to get a deal completed in what should be a win-win for either party.

The three-year deal is worth $70 million and includes $41 million guaranteed at signing and up to $46 million guaranteed.

Here’s how the contract breaks down, according to Over The Cap:

Three years, $70 million

$15 million signing bonus

2024
– $8 million base salary (guaranteed)
– $5 million roster bonus (guaranteed)
Cap Hit: $18 million (6.9%)

2025
– $18 million base salary ($13 million guaranteed)
– Remaining $5 million guaranteed if on roster fifth day of 2025 league year
Cap Hit: $23 million (8.8%)

2026
– $22 million base salary
– $2 million roster bonus (fifth day of league year)
Cap Hit: $29 million (10.2%)

Going with the theme of the other contracts the Colts have signed this offseason, this shapes up to be essentially a two-year deal with a team option in 2026.

The Colts can save $24 million in cap space while incurring a $5 million dead cap hit if they need to cut or trade Pittman after the 2025 season. It also gives them the opportunity to extend Pittman if things go well.

This is also a win for Pittman because he gets a market-level deal with a ton of guaranteed money upfront, and he potentially gets to hit the market again before the age of 30. That’s huge for a wide receiver of his caliber.

Overall, this is a solid contract for both sides. The Colts retain their WR1 for at least the next two years and can revisit the deal in any capacity if needed after 2025.

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How we graded Michael Pittman Jr. re-signing with the Colts

Here’s how we graded the contract extension for Michael Pittman Jr.

Michael Pittman Jr. and the Indianapolis Colts agreed to a three-year contract extension on Monday. The deal keeps Pittman in Indianapolis through 2026 after the Colts applied the franchise tag earlier in March ahead of free agency.

Per Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report, the contract is worth up to $71.5 million with $46 million guaranteed. At full value, it would pay Pittman just under $24 million per year.

In 2023, Pittman tallied 1,152 yards, 109 receptions and four touchdowns. His 1100-plus yards were good for fourteenth in the NFL, and his 109 receptions placed him fourth among receivers.

One of his best performances of the season came against the Tennesee Titans in Week 13. Pittman ended his day with 11 receptions, 105 yards and a touchdown during Indy’s overtime win.

General manager Chris Ballard made it clear that Michael Pittman was a priority. Applying the franchise tag to Pittman while they actively continued negotiations was a good sign that the Colts were serious about retaining him.

Pittman has endured a lot. He’s had a different quarterback in every season he’s been with the Colts, and despite the quarterback carousel, he’s answered the call nearly every time the Colts have asked him to produce. Per PFF, since 2021, he’s been top-15 or higher in targets and receptions, which is a testament to his bell-cow work ethic.

If the Colts let Pittman truly hit the open market and walk away, it would have looked pretty awful on their brass. Pittman is a franchise staple, and you should pay not only for his production and reliability but also because Anthony Richardson needs weapons around him to succeed.

On the other hand, Pittman deserves stability at the quarterback position because he has yet to hit his full potential. If the Colts can unlock that, the possibilities are infinite.

Grade: A

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Michael Pittman Jr. contract extension: What it means for Colts’ draft plans

What Michael Pittman Jr.’s contract means for the Colts’ draft plans.

Just before the free agency legal tampering period kicked off, it was announced that the Indianapolis Colts and Michael Pittman Jr. agreed to a three-year contract extension.

The deal reportedly can reach up to $71.5 million and it includes $46 million guaranteed.

This locks in the No. 1 target for Anthony Richardson and avoids any contract drama throughout OTAs and minicamp this summer—something I am sure Chris Ballard wanted to avoid after the Jonathan Taylor saga.

With Pittman now under contract, how does it impact Indy’s draft plans?

It shouldn’t. Pittman Jr. was already a lock to be on the roster in 2024 because of the franchise tag and based on Ballard’s comments at the NFL combine, there were no plans to trade him if both sides didn’t come to an agreement before the summer deadline.

A pass catcher in the first round should still be on the table for the Colts if they want one. With Pittman Jr.’s extension, Indianapolis has him, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs all under contract through at least the 2025 season (Pierce’s last year of his rookie contract). They also have Ashton Dulin returning from an injury.

By adding a receiver via the draft, Ballard would have an inexpensive receiving corps with three players playing on rookie contracts.

This would allow the front office to utilize the cap space on other parts of the roster throughout the next few seasons while also taking advantage of the rookie quarterback contact Richardson is on.

Whether it is in the first round or later on in the draft, I still expect the Colts to leave with another young receiver on their roster come late April.

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Report: Colts’ Michael Pittman Jr. agrees to 3-year contract extension

Michael Pittman Jr. gets his contract extension.

The Indianapolis Colts and wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. agreed to a three-year contract extension, according to multiple reports Monday.

After applying the franchise tag before the deadline last week, the Colts and Pittman were able to come to an agreement on a big, three-year deal before the start of free agency.

According to Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report, the deal is for three years and worth up to $71.5 million with $46 million guaranteed.

This move shouldn’t stop the Colts from adding to the wide receiver room, especially if a talented prospect like Rome Odunze or Brian Thomas Jr.—to name a few—are available with the No. 15 overall pick. But this locks in the team’s WR1 for the foreseeable future.

Pittman is coming off his best season in the NFL and has only gotten better with each season as a professional. He recorded 106 receptions for 1,152 yards during the 2023 season, both of which were career-high marks.

Despite working with seven different starting quarterbacks since entering the league in 2020, Pittman’s 3,662 receiving yards rank fifth among his peers in that draft class while his 336 receptions rank third behind only CeeDee Lamb (395) and Justin Jefferson (392).

In terms of Colts history, Pittman’s 336 receptions are the most in franchise history through a player’s first four seasons. He ranks third in receiving yards behind only T.Y. Hilton (4,413) and Marvin Harrison (4,141).

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NFL insider expects Panthers to have interest in Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., Calvin Ridley

ESPN’s Dan Graziano expects the Panthers to be in on Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr. if they become available via trade.

The Carolina Panthers are expected to be interested in a handful of this year’s top free-agent wide receivers, even if a few of them aren’t technically free-agent wide receivers anymore.

ESPN NFL insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano emptied their notebooks ahead of tomorrow’s opening of the legal tampering period. Grazino writes the following of the Panthers, who might be willing to wheel and deal to find some quality help for quarterback Bryce Young:

The Panthers are on the hunt for a No. 1 wide receiver, so if — and I say if — Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman Jr. ends up available in a trade, they’d likely be involved. I expect them to at least look into Ridley as well, should he hit the market.

Both Higgins and Pittman Jr., who entered the offseason ticketed for free agency, were both saddled with the franchise tag from their respective squads. If, however, those teams are unable to come to long-term pacts with their pass catchers, then the Panthers could be on the latter end of a tag-and-trade scenario.

Ridley, on the other hand, is about to hit the open market this week. As part of their deal to acquire him back in 2022, the Jacksonville Jaguars sent a conditional pick to the Atlanta Falcons—one that could become a second-rounder if he re-signs in Duval.

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Colts free agency: Salary cap update after franchise tag

Where the Colts stand in salary cap space after using the franchise tag.

The Indianapolis Colts used the non-exclusive franchise tag on wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. on Tuesday, which had a large impact on the team’s salary-cap space.

Fortunately for the Colts, they entered the offseason working with an abundance of cap space. Applying the franchise tag, which costs $21.8 million, also gives them the chance to work out a long-term deal, which could save them cap space depending on the structure.

After applying the one-year, fully guaranteed tender, the Colts now have roughly $49.2 million in cap space and just over $45 million in effective cap space, per Over The Cap.

Those figures rank seventh and sixth, respectively, among teams in the NFL.

Pittman won’t need to sign his franchise tender until the middle of July so they have time to wrinkle out the details on a long-term contract.

With that order of business on the shelf for now, the Colts now turn their focus to re-signing some of their big-name free agents like defensive tackle Grover Stewart and cornerback Kenny Moore II. Both players should have extremely strong markets.

We’ll see what’s in store for the Colts leading up to the open negotiating period, which arrives Monday. But they should have plenty of cap space to work with on the open market.

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