It’s a matter of simple math for Greg Gard and the Wisconsin Badgers: This Saturday against Michigan State, they need 200 total minutes from their roster. Every game requires 200 minutes, with five players on the court at all times. Those are the rules. I don’t make them.
Five players won’t play 40 minutes apiece. The bench has to fill in enough minutes. With Kobe King and Brad Davison both out of the picture for this crucial Michigan State home game at the Kohl Center, simple math demands that at least two, probably three, players will have to play a lot more minutes than they have in recent weeks.
First, let’s give you the minute totals for the Iowa game this past Monday night: D’Mitrik Trice played 37 minutes. Brevin Pritzl played 31, Nate Reuvers 29, Tyler Wahl 26, Aleem Ford 19, Micah Potter 15, and Trevor Anderson 10.
You’re adding those numbers and not getting 200 total minutes. Those seven numbers add up to 167. Correct. That’s why I left one other player out of that list so his impact can be more fully appreciated: Brad Davison played 33 minutes. These are the 33 minutes Gard must find from his roster against Michigan State, since Davison has been suspended for Saturday’s contest.
If Gard has to find 33 minutes, he can’t use Trice or Reuvers. They are already carrying a substantial workload. Wahl got the start at Iowa due to Kobe King’s absence, so he already shouldered more of a responsibility for the team. Maybe he can play four or five more minutes against Michigan State, but not 10 or 12. Wahl is not a 35-minutes-per-game player.
With Kobe King out, Gard’s rotation was shortened from nine to eight players against Iowa. King’s 28.5 minutes per game had to be redistributed to other players. Wahl picked up some of those minutes, and as we have already noted, he can’t really play more than a few extra minutes against Michigan State. Pritzl picked up a lot of them, so if he plays 31 more minutes against Michigan State, he will be doing close to the maximum in terms of playing time. Pritzl isn’t going to be the outlet through which Gard finds 33 extra minutes versus Tom Izzo’s team.
The players who will make up these 33 extra minutes are clear: Aleem Ford, Micah Potter, and Trevor Anderson. At 19, 15, and 10 minutes against Iowa, these three Badgers can reasonably be expected to get substantially more playing time versus the Spartans. The question is how Gard chooses to allocate their minutes, and in which lineups.
It would seem unavoidable that Anderson is the safest bet for a much larger role versus MSU, given that Davison and King are both guards. Anderson will need to take up the ball-handling chores to a degree. He, Wahl and Pritzl will share duties so that none of the three are individually overburdened.
The real intrigue here will involve how Gard juggles Ford’s and Potter’s minutes. Ford has been a regular member of the starting five but hasn’t always played extended minutes. He has played fewer than 20 minutes in three of his last five outings, averaging 17 minutes per game in those five contests. We have discussed Potter a lot this season. His flawed defense has kept him from getting more minutes, but he is the most efficient scorer on the team in terms of points per minutes played. A Wisconsin team without Davison, a relentless defender, can’t expect to win a 55-53 grinder. It will need Potter’s offense to win a game played in the high 60s or low 70s.
Maybe Gard will try to give Ford 13 more minutes (from 19 versus Iowa to 32 against Michigan State) and Anderson 20 more minutes (from 10 versus Iowa to 30 versus MSU), which would mean he could get his 33 extra minutes without increasing Potter’s minutes. That is mathematically possible, but it doesn’t strike me as realistic. Anderson going from a 10-minute workload to 30 in one giant leap seems improbable.
The points I have made about Potter this season now need to be applied versus Michigan State: Gard might not trust Potter with extended playing sequences, but he can play Potter for shorter bursts in more portions of games. Gard has to allow Potter to learn on the job this Saturday. Given that UW already faces an uphill battle, this seems like the ideal time to allow Potter to learn lessons. If UW loses, Potter could still walk away from this game against Michigan State with a much better idea of what he has to do in the rest of February and the season at large.
Greg Gard has to fill 33 minutes. Micah Potter, Aleem Ford, and Trevor Anderson should all expect to carry more of the load for the Badgers. Let’s see if this moment is a growth point for them. If so, this horrible week could still become a source of renewal in the long run.