Tag: Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres odds predictions pick betting line spread

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The Miami Marlins (19-35) visit the San Diego Padres (28-28) on Monday. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Padres won 4 of 6 games in 2023

The Marlins won 3-1 Sunday over the Arizona Diamondbacks to cover as +115 road underdogs. 1B Jake Burger led the way with 2 RBIs while LHP Ryan Weathers (0 ER in 6 IP) picked up the win.

San Diego snapped a 2-game losing steak and avoided the sweep with a 5-2 win over the New York Yankees on Sunday while covering as a +118 home underdog. Five Padres players had a RBI and 2B Jake Cronenworth scored 2 runs. RHP Jeremiah Estrada allowed 0 ER in 1 2/3 innings to get the win.

Marlins at Padres projected starters

LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Michael King

Rogers (1-6, 6.11 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.84 WHIP, 4.53 BB/9 and 8.08 K/9 in 45 2/3 IP.

• Marlins are 1-9 in his last 10 starts
• Has allowed 4 or more ER in 3 of his last 4 starts
• Has allowed 31 ER and 5 HR while striking out 41 and walking 23 in his 10 appearances

King (4-4, 4.28 ERA) makes his 11th start and 12th appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 4.13 BB/9 and 9.89 K/9 in 61 IP.

• Padres are 7-4 in his 11 outings
• He’s allowed 3 or more ER in 4 of his last 6 starts
• Has allowed 29 ER and 12 HR while striking out 67 and walking 28 in 11 appearances

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Marlins at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:41 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Marlins +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Padres -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-135) | Padres -1.5 (+110)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Marlins at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 6, Marlins 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The value in better on the Padres run line.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PADRES -1.5 (+110).

While the Marlins are 7-3 in their last 10 games, 2 of their last 3 losses have been by 2 or more runs and with Rogers on the mound, who has a 6.11 ERA and has allowed 4 or more ER in 3 of his last 4 starts, the Padres offense will prove too difficult. Each of the last 3 San Diego wins have come by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (-120).

While the Marlins have scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 7 games, the Padres have scored 5 or more in 3 of their last 5 games. With a lower than average total, the powerful Padres offense will play a large roll in the Over hitting.

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The Miami Marlins (65-62) look to take the rubber match against the San Diego Padres (60-67) Wednesday in the finale of a 3-game set. First pitch at Petco Park is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 3-2

The Marlins broke a 3-game losing streak Tuesday with a 3-0 win as +155 underdogs. They are 1 game back in the NL Wild Card race and 2-3 on a current 6-game road swing — they went 1-2 at the Los Angeles Dodgers on the first half of the trip.

The stubborn Padres continue to fail to live up to their preseason hype. They are 6 games back of that elusive 2nd NL Wild Card spot. They are 4-5 on a current 10-game homestand, which concludes in this series finale.

Marlins at Padres projected starters

RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Seth Lugo

Alcantara (6-10, 4.11 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 164 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 3 HR, 1 BB, 6 K in 11-3 road win at Dodgers Friday
• Pitched 8 or more innings in 3 of last 5 starts, including 2 complete-game victories — 3-1, 2.13 ERA (38 IP, 9 ER) in the 5 starts
• Averaged modest 2.1 ER allowed in last 10 starts (2.75 ERA, 68 2/3 IP, 21 ER)
• Career vs. Padres: 2-1, 2.16 ERA (25 IP, 6 ER) in 4 starts
• 2023 vs. Padres: 1 start, no-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 3 K in 9-4 home loss May 30

Lugo (4-6, 3.92 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 103 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 4-0 home victory vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Friday
• Last 10 starts: 1-3, 3.97 ERA (56 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.1 K/9 — Padres went 3-7
• Career vs. Marlins: 3-1, 3.00 ERA (57 IP, 19 ER) in 32 appearances (5 starts) — last faced Miami last season

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Marlins at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:52 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-200) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Marlins at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 7, Padres 2

Moneyline

LEAN MARLINS (+105).

After defeating the majors’ ERA leader in Padres LHP Blake Snell (2.73 ERA) Tuesday, the Marlins turn to their ace as they continue their quest to make the playoffs.

Although Lugo has pitched well in 4 of his last 5 starts, the Padres can’t seem to piece it together. As mentioned, they’re just 3-7 in Lugo’s last 10 starts.

A STRONG LEAN toward MIAMI (+105) should be safe as Alcantara is due for another efficient, lengthy start.

Run line/Against the spread

AVOID.

The Marlins rank in the bottom third of the majors in batting with runners in scoring position — .249 per MLB.com.

Although, the Padres have lost by 2 or more runs in each of their last 5 defeats, the -200 juice on the Marlins +1.5 isn’t worth the risk.

However, I could see backing the alternate line of MARLINS -1.5 (+180) for a small wager.

Over/Under

The alternate line of UNDER 8 (-120) is the proper play here … even with these streaky offenses.

Four out of Alcantara’s last 5 starts have had 8 combined runs or less.

Plus, the Marlins have failed to score more than 3 runs in 4 of the last 5 games.

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