Tag: Mets Pirates odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (42-47) and New York Mets (44-44) wrap up a 4-game series Monday at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 5-1

The Pirates lost 3-2 Sunday as +114 underdogs and 5-2 Saturday as +117 dogs after opening the series with a 14-2 rout as -137 favorites Friday — the lone Over game of the 3. The Bucs have been struggling recently as they are 3-6 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their last 9 games. They are 48-41 ATS on the season, but 22-23 ATS and 21-24 SU at home.

The Mets, who are 23-19 SU on the road, have been streaky the last 2 weeks, putting together a 4-game win streak and two 2-game win streaks, while suffering a 3-game skid and a 2-game slide in the last 13 outings. New York is riding 1 of those 2-game win streaks. It is 43-35 ATS on the season but 23-18 ATS on the road.

Mets at Pirates projected starters

RHP Christian Scott vs. RHP Mitch Keller

Scott (0-2, 4.32 ERA) makes his 7th start. The rookie has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 33 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 7-5 loss at Washington Nationals Wednesday
  • 2024 away splits: 0-1, 4.96 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 2 HR, 6.1 K/9 in 3 starts
  • Never faced Pirates before

Keller (9-5, 3.48 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 103 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER (6 R), 9 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 7-4 home setback to St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday
  • 2024 home splits: 4-2, 3.02 ERA (50 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 5 HR, 8.7 K/9 in 8 starts
  • Career vs. Mets: 2-1, 1.89 ERA (19 IP, 4 ER), 12 H, 2 HR, 6 BB, 15 K in 3 starts, including W in last start vs. NY behind 7-inning, 1 run outing in 2023

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Mets at Pirates odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:56 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Pirates -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+152) | Pirates +1.5 (-184)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Mets at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 5, Mets 3

Moneyline

BET PIRATES (-108).

The Pirates have been virtually unbeatable in recent outings with Keller starting, winning 8 of his last 10 starts. Pittsburgh has also been solid following a loss which it is here, having gone 25-21 after being defeated.

Meanwhile, the Mets who are 2-3 in their last 5 games, have been awful when Scott takes the hill. They are just 1-5 in his 6 starts and have lost 4 of those 5 by multiple runs.

Couple it all together and PITTSBURGH (-108) is the way to go.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There’s just no great value here. The Mets (-1.5, +152) might be plus-money on the run line, but as mentioned, they don’t win with Scott on the mound. Similarly, the Pirates (+1.5, -184) are too expensive as a run-line underdog.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).

The Pirates are 1-3 O/U in their last 4 games and are 40-45-4 O/U on the season. Pittsburgh is 2-3 O/U in Keller’s last 5 starts as well. It has scored 2 or fewer in 3 of its last 4, so its offense has struggled immensely as of late.

The Mets are also 1-3 O/U and have scored 5 or fewer runs in 5 straight and 3 or fewer in 3 of the 5. They have allowed 2 or fewer runs in 3 of the last 4. Be warned, the Mets are 46-39-3 O/U on the season

TAKE UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (42-43) and Pittsburgh Pirates (41-45) open a 4-game series Friday. First pitch from PNC Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: New York leads 3-0

New York lost 1-0 to the Washington Nationals Thursday while failing to cover as a -107 road favorite. The Mets have dropped back-to-back games, now falling to a below .500 record on the season.

Pittsburgh was handed a 3-2 loss in 10 innings by the St. Louis Cardinals Thursday while failing to cover as a -103 home favorite. The Pirates have lost 2 of their last 3.

Mets at Pirates projected starters

RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Paul Skenes

Severino (5-2, 3.42 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 97 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K in a 10-5 loss vs. Houston Astros Sunday
  • Career vs. Pittsburgh: 3-0, 0.53 ERA (17 IP, 1 ER), 11 H, 4 BB, 13 K in 3 starts

Skenes (4-0, 2.06 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 in 52 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 9 K in a 2-1 loss at Atlanta Saturday
  • First career start vs. Mets for the 22-year-old rookie

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Mets at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:47 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Pirates -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-200) | Pirates -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Mets at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Pirates 3

Moneyline

LEAN METS (+105).

New York enters as the slightly hotter team, being 6-4 in its last 10 overall while Pittsburgh is 4-6 in its last 10 and only 1-3 in its last 4 at home.

The Mets have also won 4 straight vs. the Pirates and are 7-3 in the last 10 matchups.

This is only a lean because Pittsburgh is 2-1 in its last 3 meetings with New York at home and because the Mets are only 3-2 in their last 5 road games.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I expect the Mets to cover here with ease, but they are not worth the risk of betting on as +1.5 (-200) favorites. Bet on the moneyline and/or O/U instead.

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (-115).

The Over has hit in 2 of Pittsburgh’s last 3 home games. For New York, the Over is 7-2-1 in its last 10 games overall. The Over has also hit in 4 of the last 5 New York-Pittsburgh matchups and is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings.

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New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (32-29) welcome the New York Mets (30-33) to PNC Park Friday for a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Mets went 6-1 vs. Pirates in 2022, outscoring them 40-17

The Mets are not playing well, having lost 6 games in a row following a 3-game sweep against the Philadelphia Phillies. New York is 15-21 on the road.

The Pirates are 16-15 at home this season. Pittsburgh has lost 2 straight after winning 6 consecutive games.

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Mets at Pirates projected starters

RHP Tylor Megill vs. LHP Rich Hill

Megill (5-3, 4.40 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.62 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 59 1/3 innings.

  • Last start:  No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 5 K in 2-1 loss vs. the Toronto Blue Jays on June 3
  • Mets are 6-6 in his 12 starts, but have lost his last 3
  • Has allowed at least 4 ER in 2 of his last 3 games

Hill (5-5, 4.41 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 65 1/3 in.

  • The 43-year-old lefty has allowed the 2nd-most HR/9 in his career at 1.4
  • Last start: Win, 6 2/3 innings, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K in 2-1 win against St. Louis on June 4
  • The Pirates are 6-6 in his 12 starts

Mets at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 12:55 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Pirates +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+135) | Pirates +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mets at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Pirates 5

Moneyline

TAKE METS (-125).

The Mets are better than their 6-game losing streak shows, and they have the younger and hotter pitcher on the mound.

The Pirates are 22-23 as an underdog while the Mets are 23-21 as a favorite this season. Over the last year, the Mets have had the Pirates number too, winning the last 6 games between the two sides.

They should be able to break their current losing streak here.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Backing the Mets to win by multiple runs is too risky for me. They haven’t played well recently, and while they have been good as a favorite, they are 12-19 on the run line following a loss.

At the same time, Pirates +1.5 (-160) is too expensive to take.

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 9 (-110).

Neither pitcher has been great this season as both have over a 4.40 ERA. The Mets are 3-1 O/U in their last 4 games, and the Pirates have gone Over in 2 straight.

New York has scored at least 4 runs in 4 straight games as well, putting up 10 in a loss to the Braves Thursday. The bats are there, and they are starting to come alive.

Take the OVER 9 (-110).

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New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (47-42) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (36-56) play the finale of a three-game set Sunday at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Taijuan Walker is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 7-3 with a 2.50 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 over 90 IP across 16 starts.

Walker received a no-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 2 K in the Mets’ 13-4 victory over Pittsburgh in his last start July 9.

RHP JT Brubaker is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 4-9 with a 4.47 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 across 88 2/3 IP in 16 starts.

Brubaker hasn’t won in five decisions and six starts dating back to May 29 at home against the Colorado Rockies. His last start was opposite Walker against Mets July 9 at Citi Field where he allowed 6 runs on 6 hits and a walk with 7 strikeouts in just 5 innings in the Pirates’ 13-4 loss.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Mets at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:57 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Pirates +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+125) | Pirates +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Mets 5, Pirates 1

Money line (ML)

The METS (-135) are reasonably priced for the Walker-Brubaker rematch from just before the All-Star break. Walker has allowed more than 2 ER just once in his last six starts, and while his road splits aren’t as good as his home numbers they’re still workable with a 3.30 ERA across 43 2/3 IP through eight starts.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The METS -1.5 (+125) are an even better value on the run line. New York is 13-3 with Walker on the mound, including eight victories of more than two runs. Walker has only allowed more than 2 ER on three occasions all season, so it’s going to be difficult for the Pirates to hang around, while the offense should do enough against the struggling Brubaker for the cover.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 8 (-110) as Walker has allowed two or fewer earned runs in all but three of his 16 starts this season. Further, heading into Saturday’s game, the Pirates had scored 3 or fewer runs in 10 of their past 15 contests.

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New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (47-41) and Pittsburgh Pirates (35-56) play the second game of a three-game set Saturday at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Tylor Megill is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 0-0 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 13.0 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 over 18 IP across 4 starts.

Megill allowed one run, four hits and three walks with seven strikeouts across 3 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Pirates at Citi Field in Game 2 of a doubleheader July 10. While Megill has zero decisions, the Mets are 4-0 across his four outings.

RHP Wil Crowe is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 1-5 with a 6.05 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 across 55 IP in 12 starts and 1 relief appearance.

Crowe allowed two runs, six hits and two walks with four strikeouts across 4 2/3 innings in a no-decision July 7 against the Atlanta Braves last time out. The Pirates are 4-8 across Crowe’s past 12 starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Mets at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Pirates +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (-105) | Pirates +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Mets 5, Pirates 3

Money line (ML)

The METS (-165) are looking for the bounce back after taking a 4-1 loss in Friday’s opener. Megill seems to be the magic charm for the Mets as they have won all of his starts so far in 2021.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The METS -1.5 (-105) are worth a small-unit play as they have won five of their past six games by two or more runs. If you like New York to win, then you should also feel confident about it covering the spread. New York has covered the run line in all four of Megill’s starts, too, winning two as a favorite and two outright as an underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 9 (-115) is the lean. The Under cashed in Friday’s series opener with a total of just five runs and we have had three straight Under results in Megill’s past three outings.

While the Over is 2-0-2 across Crowe’s past four starts, he has allowed two or fewer runs in three of those outings and the offense was responsible for the two pushes. The bullpen was responsible for the two Over results, not Crowe.

Look for the Under to come in just under the wire.

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