The Pittsburgh Pirates (32-29) welcome the New York Mets (30-33) to PNC Park Friday for a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Mets went 6-1 vs. Pirates in 2022, outscoring them 40-17
The Mets are not playing well, having lost 6 games in a row following a 3-game sweep against the Philadelphia Phillies. New York is 15-21 on the road.
The Pirates are 16-15 at home this season. Pittsburgh has lost 2 straight after winning 6 consecutive games.
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Mets at Pirates projected starters
RHP Tylor Megill vs. LHP Rich Hill
Megill (5-3, 4.40 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.62 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 59 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 5 K in 2-1 loss vs. the Toronto Blue Jays on June 3
- Mets are 6-6 in his 12 starts, but have lost his last 3
- Has allowed at least 4 ER in 2 of his last 3 games
Hill (5-5, 4.41 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 65 1/3 in.
- The 43-year-old lefty has allowed the 2nd-most HR/9 in his career at 1.4
- Last start: Win, 6 2/3 innings, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K in 2-1 win against St. Louis on June 4
- The Pirates are 6-6 in his 12 starts
Mets at Pirates odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 12:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Pirates +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+135) | Pirates +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Mets at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Pirates 5
Moneyline
TAKE METS (-125).
The Mets are better than their 6-game losing streak shows, and they have the younger and hotter pitcher on the mound.
The Pirates are 22-23 as an underdog while the Mets are 23-21 as a favorite this season. Over the last year, the Mets have had the Pirates number too, winning the last 6 games between the two sides.
They should be able to break their current losing streak here.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Backing the Mets to win by multiple runs is too risky for me. They haven’t played well recently, and while they have been good as a favorite, they are 12-19 on the run line following a loss.
At the same time, Pirates +1.5 (-160) is too expensive to take.
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Over/Under
LEAN OVER 9 (-110).
Neither pitcher has been great this season as both have over a 4.40 ERA. The Mets are 3-1 O/U in their last 4 games, and the Pirates have gone Over in 2 straight.
New York has scored at least 4 runs in 4 straight games as well, putting up 10 in a loss to the Braves Thursday. The bats are there, and they are starting to come alive.
Take the OVER 9 (-110).
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