Tag: Mets Marlins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The Miami Marlins (33-63) welcome the New York Mets (49-46) to loanDepot park Friday to open a 4-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 3-3

The Marlins avoided a 3-game sweep with a 3-2 win at the Cincinnati Reds in their series finale Sunday before the All-Star break. Miami also snapped a 5-game losing streak with the victory. The Marlins are 3-5 in their last 8 games, 18-31 at home this season, and 42-54 against the spread (ATS) overall. Miami has allowed at least 6 runs in 4 of its last 5 games.

The Mets, who are 23-20 in away games, have surprisingly been better on the road than at home this season. They’re coming off an 8-5 home loss to the Colorado Rockies Sunday, snapping a 5-game winning streak. New York has won 7 of its last 9 games and is 4-2 ATS in its last 6.

Mets at Marlins projected starters

LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Edward Cabrera

Manaea (6-3, 3.46 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 96 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 7-6 home victory over Rockies July 12
• 2024 away splits: 3-0, 2.44 ERA (44 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 1 HR, 7.5 K/9 in 8 starts
• Career vs. Marlins: 1-1, 4.80 ERA (15 IP, 8 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 in 3 starts

Cabrera (1-3, 8.26 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 13.3 K/9 in 28 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 3 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 10-6 road defeat to Cincinnati Reds Saturday
• 2024 home splits: 0-1, 6.00 ERA (18 IP, 12 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 3 HR, 1.33 K/9 in 4 starts
• Career vs. Mets: 1-2, 5.67 ERA (27 IP, 17 ER), 1.59 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 in 7 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 8:40 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mets -144 (bet $144 to win $100) | Marlins +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Mets -1.5 (+114) | Marlins +1.5 (-137)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Marlins 3

Moneyline

PASS.

There’s not great value here. The Mets’ moneyline is the stronger bet and could be worth consideration; however, the better play is for the road side’s spread.

The Marlins are too risky to play given that their starting option has struggled at home.

Run line/Against the spread

BET METS -1.5 (+114).

The Marlins have struggled to win at loanDepot park, but as home underdogs, they have also struggled to cover. They are 17-16 ATS as home underdogs, which sits in the bottom-3rd of MLB. Miami is just 19-30 ATS at home and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.

The Mets have won 5 of their last 6 games and covered the spread 4 times over that span. New York is 23-19 ATS on the road, which ranks in the top half of the league. With those trends in mind, take METS -1.5 (+114).

Over/Under

BET OVER 8 (-110).

The Mets have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 6 games and exactly 7 runs 4 times over that span. New York has gone Over in 5 of its last 7 games and is 51-41-3 O/U on the season.

The Marlins are 51-44-1 O/U on the season and have topped the projected total while allowing 6 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games. They have scored well, too, putting up at least 3 runs in 4 straight.

With that in mind, take OVER 8 (-110).

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The New York Mets (20-25) and Miami Marlins (15-32) meet Sunday as they cap off a 3-game NL East series. First pitch at loanDepot park will be at 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 2-0

New York lost Friday’s series opener 8-0 and then coughed up a significant mid-game lead Saturday. The Mets are just 1-5 over their last 6 games and 2-7 across their last 9.

The Marlins were down 7-2 when they came up to bat in the home half of Saturday’s 7th inning. The Fish scored 3 in that frame and, after the Mets had gotten 2 more, would score 4 in the bottom of the 9th — getting a game-tying home run from 1B Josh Bell — to send the game into a 10th inning where they plated the winning run.

Mets at Marlins projected starters

LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Sixto Sanchez

Manaea (2-1, 3.05 ERA) is making his 9th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 41 2/3 innings.

• Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 5-4 loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Monday
• Career vs. Marlins: 0-1, 5.40 ERA (10 IP, 6 ER), 11 H, 2 BB, 14 K in 2 starts
• Owns a 2.36 ERA over his last 26 2/3 IP

Sanchez (0-1, 5.96 ERA) is lined up for his 5th start and 12th appearance. He has a 1.63 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 5.2 K/9 in 22 2/3 innings.

• Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 6-5 loss at Detroit Tigers Monday
• Made his MLB debut in 2020 but was often injured over the next 3 years; this season marks his 1st MLB action since 2020

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Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:50 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Mets -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+110) | Marlins +1.5 (-135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Marlins 4

Moneyline

Miami is 4-2 over its last 6 games against the Mets (-150).

Looking at win percentages, it would be a bit surprising not to see both teams end up better than where they stand now. So, depending on pitching match-ups both are partway to a green check mark in the near future.

But Manaea and the visiting nine may be getting too much of a nod in this series finale. PASS on the ML action and look to the run line for more value on the Marlins.

Run line/Against the spread

Since 2022, Manaea has registered a 3.54 ERA at home and a 5.42 mark on the road. He’s making this start on 5 days of rest, which is not at all his preferred interval (career on 4 days of rest: .689 OPS allowed; on 5 days: .780). Manaea is a fly-ball pitcher, and while the Miami offense is overall a bottom-third unit, it is one that has some near-league average indicators against such pitchers.

And in this series finale, Manaea is fronting a Mets bullpen in red-zone fatigue territory. Many of New York’s best 5 or 6 arms in the relief corps have pitched twice over the last 3 days.

Sixto Sanchez does not put the best foot forward for the Miami side, but a MARLINS +1.5 (-135) play is worth partial-unit action.

Over/Under

The Over has hit both days in this series and has cashed in 3 straight Mets-Fish games in Miami. The Over is 5-1 in New York’s last 6 and 10-3 across Miami’s last 13.

The overall pitching in this game makes for an Over lean. The New York bullpen and Sanchez are big parts of that analysis. Add in a Marlins offense that owns a high-contact .765 OPS over its last 8 home games.

BET THE OVER 7.5 (-115).

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The New York Mets (20-23) and Miami Marlins (13-32) meet Friday as they swing into a 3-game NL East Series. First pitch from loanDepot park is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: 1st meeting; the Mets took the 2023 series 9-4

New York is coming of a 6-5 extra-innings win over the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday. The Mets let a 4-3 lead slip away with a Philly marker in the bottom of the 9th, but then won the contest with a 2-for-1 exchange in the 11th. The victory snapped a 3-game losing streak.

The Marlins are back at home after a 3-game series at the Detroit Tigers. Miami took the last 2 games of that series, both in shutouts. Those shutouts came on the heels of the Fish clocking a Boeing 7.25 ERA over their previous 9 games.

Mets at Marlins projected starters

RHP Christian Scott vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo

Scott (0-1, 2.84 ERA) is making his 3rd start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 12 2/3 IP.

• Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 4-1 loss vs. Atlanta Braves Saturday
• The 24-rookie made his Major League debut May 4; called up after logging a 5-start 3.20 ERA, 0.70 WHIP at Triple-A
• Has never faced the Marlins

Luzardo (0-3, 5.97 ERA) is lined up for his 7th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 31 2/3 IP.

• Last outing: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 8-3 loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
• Career vs. Mets: 2-2, 3.55 ERA (33 IP, 13 ER), 22 H, 17 BB, 37 K in 6 starts
• Returned from the Injured List (elbow) in his Saturday start against Philadelphia

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Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 7:13 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Marlins +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Marlins 3

Moneyline

In their last 20 games against the Marlins, the Mets have gone 14-6. And New York is 3-1 in their last 4 games at Miami.

Including his 2 Major League starts, Scott has appeared in just 17 games above A-ball, so it would figure he’s due for some growing pains along the way. But Scott was sharp in his last — against a juggernaut Atlanta Braves offense — and is deserving of some respect for his command and control.

In last year’s season series, the Mets were a plus-26 in run differential. They have the better bullpen and figure to be a bit of an undervalued club at this point in mid-May.

Luzardo could find some fatigue troubles with this 2nd start back off the IL.

BACK NEW YORK (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

The Under is the lean for this game, so trying to get the Mets by with a cushion does not fit here. PASS.

Over/Under

Five of the last 6 series meetings in Miami have landed on the Under.

Luzardo’s season ERA has been hurt by an unfortunate .444 batting average on balls in play. Miami’s park profiles as a pitcher’s yard, and these are a pair of 2nd-division offenses.

TAKE THE UNDER 7.5 (-110).

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The New York Mets (70-81) and Miami Marlins (79-73) play the finale of a 3-game set at loanDepot park Wednesday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 6-3

The Mets dropped a close one 4-3 Tuesday. They’ve been playing a lot better of late with a 6-4 mark over the last 10 games but their .500 baseball over the last month has been a little too late as they remain 9 games out of an NL Wild Card spot with 11 to go.

The Marlins have really turned up the heat with 13 victories in their last 20 games. They sit just a half-game out of the final Wild Card spot in the NL. Miami is 44-33 at home and 25-23 within the NL East.

Mets at Marlins projected starters

RHP Kodai Senga vs. RHP Eury Perez

Senga (11-7, 2.95 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 155 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 10 K Thursday vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
• 2 career starts vs. Marlins: 2-0, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 14 K in 11 1/3 IP

Perez (5-5, 3.06 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 88 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 7 K Thursday vs. Milwaukee Brewers
• 2023 home/road splits: 3-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 in 8 home starts; 2-4, 4.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 10 road starts

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Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:48 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mets +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Marlins -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-210) | Marlins -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 3, Mets 2

Moneyline

Senga has been impressive only allowing more than 2 ER in 1 of his last 7 starts with a 2.22 ERA. This should be a low-scoring one, and I think the Marlins can hang around long enough to get to the Mets’ 22nd-ranked bullpen. Miami is a stellar 31-13 in 1-run games this year, so I’ll take the MARLINS (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

I’m picking the Marlins in a close one here, and the Mets are outpriced for a run of insurance.

PASS.

Senga’s K-props weren’t available at the time of publication, and his number will probably be 6.5. I’d take the Over on that at a solid price. He has 10 K’s in 3 of his last 4 starts.

Over/Under

We have a really low number here. The Under has cashed 5 times in the last 10 meetings between the teams. The Mets are 4-5-1 O/U over the last 10, and Miami is 4-6. Senga has pitched to 3 Unders in the last 4, and Perez has pitched to 4 of 5.

LEAN UNDER 7 (+100).

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The New York Mets (70-80) and the Miami Marlins (78-73) play the middle contest of a 3-game series at loanDepot park Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 6-2

The Mets opened the road series with a 2-1 victory on Monday night. New York scored in the top of the 9th inning on a solo homer by INF/OF Jeff McNeil to spoil the night in South Florida.

The Marlins were coming in hot after a 3-game high-scoring sweep of the division champ Atlanta Braves. However, the loss dropped them a half-game back of the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds for 1 of the final 2 NL Wild Card spots.

Mets at Marlins projected starters

LHP Joey Lucchesi vs. LHP Braxton Garrett

Lucchesi (3-0, 2.83 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 35 innings.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 5 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 7-1 home win vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday
• 2023 road splits: 2-0, 2.41 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 2 HR, .250 opponent batting average (OBA) in 4 starts

Garrett (9-6, 3.67 ERA) makes his 29th start and 30th overall appearance. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 149 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 2-0 road win vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday
• 2023 home splits: 3-4, 4.82 ERA (74 2/3 IP, 40 ER), 13 HR, .278 OBA in 14 starts and 1 relief appearance

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Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:23 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mets +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Marlins -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-155) | Marlins -1.5 (+125)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Marlins 2

Moneyline

The METS (+135) might not be going to the postseason, and they’re doing their best to make sure the Marlins (-160) don’t go, either.

New York eked out 1-run road win with a dramatic 9th inning HR Monday, and it is now 6-2 in 8 meetings with Miami. These teams meet 5 more times in the next 12 games, and the Mets could be a major reason why the Marlins aren’t included in the postseason.

Run line/Against the spread

The METS +1.5 (-155) aren’t priced out of line if you’re not quite feeling a 2nd straight win as an underdog, and you want a little insurance instead.

The Marlins -1.5 (+125) need a win to keep pace in the Wild Card picture, but Lucchesi has been a tough customer in his return to the majors, while Garrett has been far more effective on the road than at home. It’s a perfect recipe for another underdog win.

Over/Under

The UNDER 8 (-110) is the play again on Monday. We saw the total go way Under on Monday, with just 2 total runs scored in the first 8 innings, and 3 runs altogether.

It was a crazy turn of events to see a pitcher’s duel in Miami after the Marlins had piled up 36 runs of offense in the 3-game sweep of the Braves in the series prior.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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The New York Mets (69-80) and the Miami Marlins (78-72) open a 3-game series at loanDepot park Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 5-2

The Mets dropped 2 of 3 games against the Cincinnati Reds at Citi Field over the weekend, salvaging the series finale on Sunday in an 8-4 score as the Over (9) cashed. New York has won 5 of the past 8 games overall, with the Over going 4-1-1 in the past 6 contests.

The Marlins swept the AL East champion Atlanta Braves over the weekend, pulling into a tie for the final NL Wild Card spot with the Chicago Cubs with 12 regular-season games remaining. Miami’s offense came alive in the 3-game sweep of Atlanta, averaging 12.0 runs per game.

Mets at Marlins projected starters

RHP Jose Butto vs. RHP Edward Cabrera

Butto (1-2, 3.46 ERA) makes his 5th start and 7th overall appearance. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 6.2 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 26 innings.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 7-4 home win vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday
• 2023 home splits: 1-2, 4.38 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1 HR, .178 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance

Cabrera (6-7, 4.52 ERA) makes his 18th start and 20th overall appearance. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 6.3 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 85 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 6 BB, 5 K in 3-1 road loss vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Tuesday
• 2023 home splits: 6-0, 2.61 ERA (38 IP, 11 ER), 3 HR, .191 OBA in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance

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Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:05 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mets +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Marlins -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-155) | Marlins -1.5 (+125)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 6, Mets 3

Moneyline

The MARLINS (-155) are moderate favorites, but they keep steaming along as they try to keep their Wild Card hopes on track.

The difference here is pitching, as Cabrera is unbeaten in 6 decisions at home. While he has some extremely odd splits against the Mets this season, allowing just 4 ER, 2 H and 13 BB in 6 2/3 IP across 2 starts, he is at home, and he doesn’t miss at loanDepot park.

Run line/Against the spread

The MARLINS -1.5 (+125) are worth a look on the run line.

Miami hasn’t been favored in the past 13 games. The last time it was favored, Miami won 6-4 on Sept. 3 in Washington. The Marlins are 6-3 in the past 9 games as favorites and have cashed the run line in 4 in a row when favored.

Over/Under

The OVER 8.5 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at best.

Miami scored 9 or more runs in the 3-game sweep of the Braves over the weekend, and the total has gone high in 6 in a row at home. For New York, the Over is 4-1-1 in the past 6 games overall, too.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

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