Golden prospect? Look to the Golden Arches: Predicting NBA potential might be as easy as looking at the McDonald’s All-Star games

NBA teams uncertain with their draft pick may want to look at the McDonald’s All-American Game roster, which is a good predictor of future success.

The annual McDonald’s All-American Game brings together high school seniors for a prestigious basketball game that showcases the best of the best at the prep level.

Future NBA stars like Kevin Garnett and Kobe Bryant in the 1990s, LeBron James and Dwight Howard in the 2000s, Jayson Tatum and Anthony Edwards in the 2010s and Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren in the 2020s have participated in this event, coming together to show the nation the future of the league.

But for every legend-to-be, there’s a participant who doesn’t make an impact in the NBA. Perhaps they flame out in college or get into the league but have stat sheets riddled with DNPs.

That begs the question: How good is the McDonald’s All-American Game at predicting the future success of these athletes?

To find the answer, USA TODAY High School Sports analyzed every boys roster from 2000-2020 and created a points system based on their impact in the league, ranging from no impact to Hall of Fame-level. The points range from:

  • 0: No impact
  • 1: Some NBA impact
  • 2: Longtime role player
  • 3: Borderline all-star/one-time all-star
  • 4: Perennial all-star/borderline All-NBA
  • 5: Perennial All-NBA/HOF-level

The result: As challenging as recruiting and prospect analysis is, the game is quite good at picking future NBA talent.

The scoring system deemed the 24-person roster a success if it totaled at least 24 points, which would mean, on average, each player had some NBA impact.

Over those 21 years, 13 teams reached 24 points, and one other had 23 points in this subjective exercise. The leading year was 2004, which had 41 points and kicked off a five-year run that averaged more than 34 points per year. Prospect analysis suffered from 2009-15, with only two years reaching the requisite 24 points (and two failing to break 15 points), but since 2016, it’s been a great indicator of future success. In 2018, 18 of the 24 players had some NBA impact, finishing with a score of 40 points.

Of the 505 players (the 2013 roster had 25 players), 254 received a grade of at least one, while 251 received a zero—that’s above 50%, and while it may not sound all that impressive, a scout who can pick an NBA-impact player one of every two times will be employed for life. Of those who received a score, 165 scored two or better, indicating that about one-third of the players had a long and productive career in the league.

2024 NBA draft

With the 2024 NBA draft beginning Wednesday night, teams facing uncertainty may want to look at recent McDonald’s games to help fill out their big board.

The players in the draft who competed in the high school all-star game were:

  • Harrison Ingram (2021)
  • Adem Bona (2022)
  • Kel’el Ware (2022)
  • Matas Buzelis (2023)
  • Stephon Castle (2023)
  • Isaiah Collier (2023)
  • Justin Edwards (2023)
  • Ron Holland (2023)
  • Bronny James (2023)
  • Jared McCain (2023)
  • Reed Sheppard (2023)
  • Ja’Kobe Walter (2023)
  • Cody Williams (2023)

Eight of those players (all in 2023) are projected as potential lottery picks. Players like Edwards and Ware could go later in the first round, while Ingram, Bona and James have been mainly graded as second-round picks.

The McDonald’s game doesn’t ensure a star — only 35 players received a grade of 4 to 5 points, and that was with some projection for budding stars like Tyrese Maxey and Scottie Barnes, both of whom had 4 — but there are very few top-talent stars in the league. A team can happily get a rotation player outside the top handful of draft spots. Historically, picking a McDonald’s player gives a team a 50% chance of doing so.

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No. 1 recruit Cooper Flagg believes Duke basketball is set to bounce back

Cooper Flagg talks about Duke basketball expectations.

Duke basketball is poised to bounce back according to Cooper Flagg, the five-star forward who is playing in this week’s McDonald’s All-American Game.

Flagg is the No. 1 player in the nation according to ESPN and multiple other outlets.

Duke had a down year by their usual lofty standards, finishing the regular season 24-8. In the final USA TODAY Coaches Poll before the start of the NCAA Tournament, Duke was ranked No. 14.

They were a fourth-seed in the NCAA Tournament and lost on Sunday in the Elite Eight to ACC rival North Carolina State.

Flagg was asked on Monday during a press conference for the McDonald’s All-American Game if he felt any pressure from fans following Duke’s loss in the NCAA Tournament.

“I think I just didn’t realize it…I don’t think I feel any sort of pressure,” Flagg said.

“Just because you know, we haven’t been there. So I think once you get there like you said get acclimated. I think we have the chance to do something really special.”

In the USA Today High School Sports top 10, Flagg is the second-best recruit in the country.

Joining Flagg during the press conference was future teammate Isaiah Evans. The future Duke guard is also a five-star and the No. 12 player in the nation according to 247Sports.

“As far as fan pressure, I don’t really feel pressure from this year’s team,” Evans said during the McDonald’s press conference.”

“I think that we’re going to create our own journey and once we get there and get acclimated with each other. And I think we don’t make a lot of fans proud.”

Photos, recap from 2023 McDonald’s All-American Boys Game

Instant classic!

The East pulled off an epic second-half comeback to win the 2023 McDonald’s All-American Game, 109-106, behind a solid effort by the MVP and Kentucky commit D.J. Wagner.

Heading into the 4th quarter, the West led, 85-78, held steady by several notable performances, including Bronny James, who knocked down five 3-pointers on the night.

In the end, though, the East converted from the line when the West didn’t, as Isaiah Collier failed to hit a tying free throw late while Wagner sunk his. From there, it was the luck of the bounce, the West missing a last-second heave toward the rim for a potential game-tying shocker.

Here’s a look at some of the images from the instant classic…

WATCH: Bronny James’ dunks at the 2023 Powerade JamFest

Was Bronny James’ high-flying display enough to win it all?

All eyes were on Bronny James on Monday as the 2023 McDonald’s All-American Game festivities turned to the Powerade JamFest.

The dunk contest has been a historic bullet point for many basketball greats, from Vince Cater and Zion Williamson to Blake Griffin and, of course, LeBron James.

Last year’s event threw down even more notoriety as South Carolina’s Ashlyn Watkins became the first female athlete to win the contest.

Would it be Bronny’s turn atop the high-flying talent?

His above-the-rim display certainly made a statement.

Act 2 had an assist from his brother, Bryce.

SportsCenter Next dropped in with a perfect mix of nostalgia…

… but alas, in the end, Bronny’s efforts came up short, with the Sierra Canyon (Calif.) standout needing multiple attempts to successfully complete his dunks.

He would finish in second place, just behind Duke commit Sean Stewart, which created an all-Blue Devils winners circle for the night.

Although history didn’t repeat itself, the possible chance at JamFest glory was still fun to watch!

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Stream or watch high school sports on-demand on the NFHS Network

WATCH: 5-star PG Jeremy Fears talks Michigan State basketball

5-star PG Jeremy Fears talked MSU while at the McDonald’s All-American game:

Jeremy Fears is one of the four players headed to Michigan State in the 2023 recruiting class, one of Tom Izzo’s best in his Michigan State tenure. Fears, a five-star, is highly regarded by Spartan nation, which hopes he will be the next point guard in Michigan State’s strong lineage.

The future Spartan is gearing up for the McDonald’s All-American game. He spoke to the media ahead of the game.

Watch what the five-star point guard had to say about the Spartans, courtesy of Tommy Yarrish of 247Sports:

Two Michigan State basketball signees named McDonald’s All Americans

Two members of MSU’s 2023 recruiting class have been named McDonald’s All Americans

Tom Izzo reeled in one of the most highly anticipated recruiting class in his tenure at Michigan State in 2023. That anticipation is only going to grow as the rosters for the McDonald’s All American game have been announced.

While all four members of the class were nominated, two members of Michigan State’s 2023 recruiting class have been named McDonald’s All Americans.

5-stars Xavier Booker and Jeremy Fears will be representing Michigan State as McDonald’s All Americans.

Contact/Follow us @The SpartansWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Michigan state news, notes, and opinion. You can also follow Cory Linsner on Twitter @Cory_Linsner.

How Arkansas signees fared in McDonald’s All-American Game

Here’s how Nick Smith Jr., Jordan Walsh, and Anthony Black performed in the 2022 McDonald’s All-American Game on Tuesday in Chicago, Ill.

The nation’s top high school basketball players met in Chicago, Ill. Tuesday to compete in the 2022 McDonald’s All-American Game, and Arkansas basketball was well represented.

For the first time in program history, Arkansas basketball had three representatives to compete in the game. Class of 2022 signees [autotag]Nick Smith Jr.[/autotag] and [autotag]Jordan Walsh[/autotag], as well as recent commit [autotag]Anthony Black[/autotag] made history as they competed for the West team on Tuesday.

Having multiple participants in the McDonald’s All-American Game is not uncommon for Arkansas basketball, but it has not happened in some time. The last time that two future Razorbacks played in the game was in 1988, when Todd Day and Lee Mayberry played in the game. Since then, Arkansas has had 11 signees to play in the prestigious game.

McDonald’s All-American Games announce nearly 800 nominees for 2022

The McDonald’s All-American Games announced nearly 800 nominees for the 2022 games on Wednesday morning.

The McDonald’s All-American Games announced nearly 800 nominees for the 2022 games on Wednesday morning.

The games are expected to return in 2022 after a two-year absence due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The 45th installment of the games are slated to be played at DePaul’s Wintrust Arena in Chicago on March 29.

Texas received the most nominations with 83. California and Florida received 73 nominations each, while Maryland received 44. The top 24 boys and girls selected will be revealed Tuesday, Jan. 25 on ESPN’s NBA Today at some point between 3 and 4 p.m. ET.

“As a brand that feeds and fosters many communities across the country, it’s great to celebrate these players who are proudly representing their high schools, families and hometowns from all over,” Black McDonald’s Operators Association Lead for Chicago Derrick Taylor said, per release.

“As a big basketball fan myself, and on behalf of McDonald’s owner/operators across the country, we can’t wait to see the top 48 high school players take the court this March in Chicago, a city that hosted the games numerous times over the past 45 years.”

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Azzi Fudd headlines 2021 girls McDonald’s All American game roster

McDonald’s announced its final roster for the 44th annual girls McDonald’s All American Game on Tuesday

McDonald’s announced its final roster for the 44th annual girls McDonald’s All American Game on Tuesday, with top 2021 recruit and UConn commit Azzi Fudd headlining the group.

You can read the entire 2021 girls McDonald’s All American game roster below:

  • W Destiny Adams — Manchester Township High School (N.J.)
  • P Clarice Akunwafo — Rolling Hills Preparatory (Calif.)
  • G Sonia Citron — Ursuline High School (N.Y.)
  • P Maryam Dauda — Bentonville High School (Ark.)
  • F Amari DeBerry — Williamsville South High School (N.Y.)
  • W Brooke Demetre — Mater Dei High School (Calif.)
  • G Caroline Ducharme — Noble & Greenough School (Mass.)
  • F Sania Feagin — Forest Park High School (Ga.)
  • G Azzi Fudd — St. John’s College High School (D.C.)
  • G Aubryanna Hall — Wayne High School (Ohio)
  • PG Rori Harmon — Cypress Creek High School (Texas)
  • F Jillian Hollingshead — McEachern High School (Ga.)
  • PG Kyndall Hunter — Cypress Creek High School (Texas)
  • F Okikola Iriafen — Harvard Westlake High School (Calif.)
  • PG Raven Johnson — Westlake High School (Ga.)
  • G Greta Kampschroeder — Naperville North High School (Ill.)
  • W Teonni Key — Cary High School (N.C.)
  • G Rayah Marshall — Lynwood High School (Calif.)
  • PG Kayla McPherson — Madison County High School (Ga.)
  • F Aaliyah Moore — Moore High School (Okla.)
  • G Reigan Richardson — Cannon School (N.C.)
  • G Saniya Rivers — Eugene Ashley High School (N.C.)
  • G Payton Verhulst — Bishop Meige High School (Kan.)
  • W Jersey Wolfenbarger — Northside High School (Ark.)

The University of South Carolina boasts the most commits of the roster (four), as Feagin, Hall, Johnson and Rivers are all committed to the Gamecocks. California and Georgia are the most represented states on the roster, as four girls reside in the two states.

The 44th McDonald’s All American game will not take place due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic after consultation with health and safety experts. Instead, the 48 players (24 boys, 24 girls) will be honored virtually.

“These young men and women are so special and have accomplished remarkable feats over the past four years,” said Joe Wootten, McDonald’s All American Games Selection Committee Chairman. “It is
our honor to continue investing in and supporting the next generation of basketball stars.”

Visit mcdaag.com and follow @McDAAG Twitter and Instagram for all the latest and most exclusive McDonald’s All American Games news

Chet Holmgren headlines 2021 boys McDonald’s All American Game roster

McDonald’s announced its final roster for the 44th annual boys McDonald’s All American Game on Tuesday.

McDonald’s announced its final roster for the 44th annual boys McDonald’s All American Game on Tuesday, with top 2021 recruit Chet Holmgren headlining the group.

Jaden Hardy, the No. 2 recruit in the class of 2021 and Duke commit Paolo Banchero, the No. 3 recruit in the class of 2021, are also among the numerous notable names on this year’s McDonald’s All American game roster. You can read the entire roster below:

  • PF Patrick Baldwin Jr. — Hamilton High School (Wisc.)
  • C Paolo Banchero — O’Dea High School (Wash.)
  • C Nate Bittle — Prolific Prep (Calif.)
  • SF Kendall Brown — Sunrise Christian Academy (Kan.)
  • SG Kobe Bufkin — Grand Rapids Christian High School (Mich.)
  • PG Kennedy Chandler — Sunrise Christian Academy (Kan.)
  • SG Max Christie — Rolling Meadows High School (Ill.)
  • C Daimion Collins — Atlanta High School (Texas)
  • PG J.D. Davison — Calhoun High School (Ala.)
  • PF Moussa Diabate — IMG Academy (Fla.)
  • PF Michael Foster — Hillcrest Prep (Ariz.)
  • C Jackson Grant — Olympia High School (Wash.)
  • SF A.J. Griffin — Archbishop Stepinac High School (N.Y.)
  • SG Jaden Hardy — Coronado High School (Nev.)
  • PG Nolan Hickman — Wasatch Academy (Utah)
  • C Chet Holmgren — Minnehaha Academy (Minn.)
  • SF Caleb Houstan — Montverde Academy (Fla.)
  • SF Harrison Ingram — St. Mark’s School (Texas)
  • SG Trevor Keels — Paul VI High School (Va.)
  • SG Aminu Mohammed — Greenwood Laboratory School (Mo.)
  • PG Daeshaun Ruffin — Callaway High School (Miss.)
  • PG Hunter Sallis — Millard North High School (Neb.)
  • PF Jabari Smith — Sandy Creek High School (Ga.)
  • SF Peyton Watson — Long Beach Polytechnic High School (Calif.)

The University of Michigan boasts the most commits (three) of the roster, as Burfkin, Diabate and Ingram are all committed to the Wolverines.

The 44th McDonald’s All American game will not take place due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic after consultation with health and safety experts. Instead, the 48 players (24 boys, 24 girls) will be honored virtually.

“These young men and women are so special and have accomplished remarkable feats over the past four years,” said Joe Wootten, McDonald’s All American Games Selection Committee Chairman. “It is
our honor to continue investing in and supporting the next generation of basketball stars.”

Visit mcdaag.com and follow @McDAAG Twitter and Instagram for all the latest and most exclusive McDonald’s All American Games news