Five reasons for concern as LSU prepares for Ole Miss

LSU’s defense will have their hands full with this week’s opponent. Ole Miss has had plenty of success on offense in 2020.

LSU closes up its season this weekend with one more big test for the defense. Ole Miss has had one of the SEC’s top offenses this season. With the kind of season Ole Miss has been having with the football, LSU’s defense will once again be faced with plenty of concerns this week.

Ole Miss and the SEC’s top offense

Stop us if you have heard this before, but LSU defensive coordinator Bo Pelini and the Tigers defense has a tough matchup on its hands this week. After playing Alabama and Florida in back-to-back games, LSU now faces the Ole Miss offense molded by head coach Lane Kiffin. The Rebels come into the game with the top-ranked offense in the SEC with an average of 563.0 yards per game. The pace will be quick too.

Ole Miss leads the SEC in rushing yards per game (206.5) and has the conference’s second-best passing offense with 356.5 yards per game. This is a team that scored 35 points on Florida in the season opener and 48 points against Alabama a few weeks later. Ole Miss has the offense, but the defense is where LSU needs to generate some of its own success.

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Ole Miss QB Matt Corrall among the SEC’s best

Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral is the one running the offense and putting up big numbers in the process. In a conference that is highlighted by Heisman Trophy campaigns for Alabama quarterback Mac Jones and Florida quarterback Kyle Trask, the Rebels’ quarterback is nestled quite nicely among the two in the SEC passing stats. Corral is second in the SEC in passing yards per game (343.0) with 24 touchdowns (with nine interceptions). Corral has a completion percentage of 72.9 coming into this week’s game and he is on pace for a 3,000-yard season. He could very well pass the 3,000-yard mark for the season this weekend (2,744 yards in eight games coming into the week).

Stopping the bleeding in the red zone

FOr all the scorn LSU’s defense has taken this season, one area they have performed admirably is inside the red zone. Opponents have a red zone touchdown percentage of 55.26 percent this season, which is the third-lowest among SEC schools (only Alabama and Mississippi State have a better number). For all the offense Ole Miss has thrived on this season, the success in the red zone on offense has room for improvement. The Rebels have scored 33 touchdowns on 51 red zone trips, a red zone touchdown percentage of 64.71 percent (eighth-best in the SEC).

Odds are good Ole Miss will have a handful of trips inside the red zone. If LSU can limit Ole Miss to more field goals than touchdowns, that would be a major step toward a possible win.

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Keeping the Ole Miss special teams tied down

If there is an area where LSU can create an advantage, it absolutely must be with special teams. Simply put, Ole Miss is not a threat on special teams returns. The Rebels have had just one kickoff return of at least 30 yards this season and zero punt returns traveling at least 20 yards. Ole Miss has just three punt returns for nine yards this season. Considering Zach Von Rosenberg is among the SEC’s top punters, LSU may have some opportunities to punt to win.

Containing explosive plays

Perhaps the reason Ole Miss isn’t concerned about getting big returns on special teams is that they can gain big yards on offense at will. Ole Miss has an explosive offense with the third-most plays of 10+, 20+, and 30+ yards among SEC schools. The only schools with more have been Alabama and Florida, and they have had the benefit of playing two extra games compared to the Rebels so far.

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Auburn vs. Ole Miss expert predictions

Taking a look at predictions from around the country for Auburn at Ole Miss.

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Auburn takes on Ole Miss this Saturday in what many experts describe as a must-win game for both teams. Ole Miss (1-3) will be hoping to get its offense back on track after losing to Arkansas while Auburn strives to re-obtain a winning record after a loss to South Carolina knocked them out of the top 25.

Right now Auburn is a three-point favorite, but here’s what the experts have to say:

247Sports

Brad Crawford: Auburn 31 Ole Miss 27

What he says:

“I saw Auburn’s loss at South Carolina coming last week. Hammered the Gamecocks +3 and on the moneyline after calling the Tigers one of the Top 25’s most overrated teams for weeks. The early part of this week has centered around Gus Malzahn’s future on the Plains in the aftermath and rightfully so considering this team’s offense has been wildly inconsistent this fall. That being said, Auburn won’t lose to Ole Miss. This is my favorite bet of the week actually. I’ll take the Tigers and lay three.”

Chris Hummer: Auburn 27 Ole Miss 21

What he says:

“This should be a get right game for the Tigers’ offense. If Chad Morris is smart that means feeding Tank Bigsby the ball early and often against a run defense that’s allowing 6.2 yards per carry, third-to-last in the FBS. I do wonder, however, if Auburn is explosive enough if it gets behind early. As it is, I’m betting Kevin Steele steals Barry Odom’s formula to beat Ole Miss – don’t blitz, drop coverage, make the Rebels drive – and the Tigers bounce back.”

Bleacher Report

Kerry Miller: Auburn 34 Ole Miss 31

What he says:

“Leave it to Lane Kiffin to come in and destroy three of the SEC’s best 2019 defenses (Florida, Kentucky and Alabama) before a seven-turnover nightmare in a loss to Arkansas. The Rebels need Matt Corral to revert to throwing like he did for the first three weeks (76.1 percent completion, 360.0 yards, 3.0 touchdowns, 0.3 interceptions).

When Auburn has the ball, it’ll be mediocre offense against terrible defense. Bo Nix has not looked good at all thus far, but at least the Tigers have found something in freshman running back Tank Bigsby. He has eclipsed the century mark in two consecutive games, and Auburn would be wise to ride that tank to victory in this one.”

College Football News

Pete Flutak: Auburn 34 Ole Miss 30

What he says:

“Both teams have major problems, but give Ole Miss a wee bit of a break defensively – even if it’s a minuscule one. The Rebels faced Florida’s Kyle Trask, Alabama’s Mac Jones, and they dealt with the Kentucky’s Terry Wilson and Arkansas’ Feleipe Franks just like Auburn did.

Nix won’t be razor sharp, but he’ll be just good enough, Bigsby will build off his 111-yard day against South Carolina, and even on the road, the offense will look good for at least one Saturday.”

SportsbookWire

Cameron DaSilva: Auburn 35 Ole Miss 30

Athlon Sports:

Steven Lassan: Auburn

Mark Ross: Auburn

Ben Weinrib: Auburn

Ryan Wright: Ole Miss 38 Auburn 28 (ouch)

What Ryan says:

“Auburn’s defense is good, but Ole Miss’ offense presents a stern test given the firepower the Rebels boast. Similar to Alabama, Lane Kiffin has the horses to attack any defense on the ground and through the air. If the Tigers get the needed stops, can their offense do enough to keep Ole Miss’ defense on its heels?

The expected “soft spot” of Auburn’s schedule has turned out to be anything but and the Tigers still have LSU, Alabama, and Texas A&M left to play. But taking care of business against Ole Miss comes first. Unfortunately, for Auburn, Matt Corral gets back on track and leads his Rebels to a big home win.”

The Athletic

Stewart Mandel: Ole Miss 38 Auburn 30

What he says:

“If Vegas wants to keep making Auburn a favorite despite how poorly it’s played, then I’m going to keep picking against the Tigers. Bo Nix and that offense have not demonstrated they can put up enough points to keep up with an explosive Ole Miss offense unlikely to put up a second consecutive stinker like at Arkansas.”

Stewart Mandel has Auburn on upset alert, but little does he know that no Auburn fan can be more upset than we already are. If there’s anything we’ve learned from every expert prediction here it’s that Auburn needs to throw less and play Tank Bigsby more.

5 reasons Alabama beats Ole Miss, 2 reasons they won’t

Here are 5 reasons why the Alabama Crimson Tide will beat the Ole Miss Rebels, and two reasons why they won’t.

On Saturday, the Alabama Crimson Tide will face off with the Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford, Mississippi, for the 64th time in Alabama football history.

This is one of the longest rivalries in Alabama football history and is also one of the most entertaining as well.

Alabama wide receiver Drew Kobayashi (85), who was moved from offensive line to tight end, blocks against Ole Miss linebacker Lakia Henry (1) during Alabama’s 59-31 victory over Ole Miss Saturday, Sept. 28, 2019. [Gary Cosby Jr./Tuscaloosa News]
The Rebels, who defeated the Kentucky Wildcats 42-41, are looking to redeem themselves after a rocky start to the season so far. Rebels’ quarterback Matt Corral finished the game strong. going 24-29 for 320 yards and 4 TD.s This game against Alabama will be a statement game to show what they’re capable of this season in the SEC West under former Alabama offensive coordinator, Lane Kiffin.

As for the Crimson Tide, who beat the Texas A&M Aggies, 38-19, the Tide is looking to continue their success on the road.  Mac Jones put on a show and went 20-of-27 for 435 yards, 4 TDs, and 1 INT.

Since 1894, there have been 62 other matchups between both teams.

Alabama has won 51 of the 63 matchups, while Ole Miss has won 10. There have also been two ties between the two teams as well.

Alabama has also won the last 4 straight matchups.

The last time the Rebels beat the Crimson Tide was in 2015 when the Rebels stunned the Tide in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, 43-37.

Under Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide is 11-2 against the Aggies, and Alabama has outscored Ole Miss, 495- 228, under Saban as well.

Simply put, this series never disappoints, and Saturday’s matchup will prove just that.

Here are 5 ways that Alabama will beat the Rebels for the 5th straight time:

1. Mac Jones and Alabama’s offensive weapons

Oct 3, 2020; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws a pass against Texas A&M at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama defeated A&M 52-24. Gary Cosby Jr/The Tuscaloosa News via USA TODAY Sports

Mac Jones has continued to prove himself worthy of the starting quarterback job. So far this season, Jones has completed 38 of 51 passes (74.5% completion rate) for 684 yards, 6 TDs, and 1 interception, and he also has a 94.3 QBR.

As for the offensive weapons, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, and John Metchie III have continued to showcase their abilities. They’ve helped make big plays for the Crimson Tide, and have an incredible rhythm and chemistry with Mac Jones.

If Alabama plays as they did last Saturday against the Aggies, the Tide won’t have any trouble on offense putting up big numbers against the Rebels.

Next.. a familiar running back!