Tag: Marlins Rays odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (39-67) visit the Tampa Bay Rays (54-52) on Tuesday. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 6:50 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rays lead 2-0, winning 9-5 and 5-3 in Miami on June 4-5

The Marlins had a 2-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with a 6-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers while failing to cover as +185 road underdogs. SS Xavier Edwards and RF Bryan De La Cruz each had an RBI.

The Rays have won back-to-back games after taking down the Cincinnati Reds 2-1 on Sunday and covering as -102 home favorites.

Marlins at Rays projected starters

RHP Edward Cabrera vs. LHP Jeffrey Springs

Cabrera (1-3, 7..04 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.62 WHIP, 5.63 BB/9 and 11.50 K/9 in 38 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K in 6-3 win against Baltimore Orioles Wednesday
  • Career vs. Rays: 0-2, 10.80 ERA (5 IP, 6 ER), 6 H, 6 BB, 6 K in 2 starts; last outing in 2023

Springs makes his 1st start of the season after returning from an elbow injury.

  • Went 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in 3 starts in 2023, allowing 1 ER, 4 H, 4 B, 24 K in 16 IP
  • Career vs. Marlins: 0-0, 9 ERA (1 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 2 appearances; last outing in 2021

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Marlins at Rays odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:43 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Marlins +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Rays -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Rays -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Marlins at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 5, Marlins 4

Moneyline

BET RAYS (-175).

While the odds are not extremely profitable, the Rays will see Spring start his 1st game since April 13, 2023. They have won 3 of their last 4 including back-to-back games at home while the Marlins have dropped 2 of their last 4 including their last game on the road.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There is value on the Rays run line, however the Marlins are 4-2 in their last 6 games and have scored 6 runs or more in 5 of their last 6 overall.

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (-110).

Miami has an Over record of 7-2-1 in its last 10 games including 6-0-1 in its last 7. It has scored 6 or more runs in 6 of its last 10. Tampa Bay has hit the Over in 5 of its last 9 while scoring 4 or more runs in 5 of its last 9.

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Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (54-48) and the Tampa Bay Rays (62-42) wrap up a 2-game interleague series Wednesday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rays lead 1-0 after winning 4-1 on Tuesday

The Marlins have struggled mightily lately, dropping 9 of the last 10 games. Miami is averaging just 2.9 runs per game (RPG) across the last 10 outings. The Under has cashed in each of the last 4 games.

The Rays registered the 4-1 win Tuesday, a rare victory lately. Tampa Bay is still just 2-7 in the last 9 games overall, while the Under is 6-1 in the last 7 outings, and 11 of the previous 14 contests.

Tampa Bay has won 8 straight meetings in this series dating back to April 2021. Miami has posted just 13 total runs across the 8-game series losing streak, too. The Rays have been favored in each of the past 8 games in the series, covering the run line in 5 of the outings.

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Marlins at Rays projected starters

RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Zach Eflin

Alcantara (3-9, 4.70 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 126 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 7 K in a 6-4 road loss vs. the St. Louis Cardinals last Wednesday
  • 2023 road splits: 2-5, 4.91 ERA (66 IP, 36 ER – 10 HR), .277 opponent batting average (OBA) in 11 starts
  • 2023 daytime splits: 0-5, 4.98 ERA (59 2/3 IP, 33 ER – 6 HR), .254 OBA in 9 starts

Eflin (11-5, 3.36 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 112 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K in a 3-0 home win vs. the Baltimore Orioles Friday
  • 2023 home splits: 10-1, 2.10 ERA (68 2/3 IP, 16 ER – 6 HR), .193 OBA in 11 starts
  • 2023 daytime splits: 7-3, 3.38 ERA (64 IP, 24 ER – 5 HR), .209 OBA in 11 starts

Marlins at Rays odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:56 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Rays -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-150) | Rays -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Marlins at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 5, Marlins 2

Moneyline

The RAYS (-165) are a little on the pricey side, but Tampa Bay is worth the risk. Tampa Bay has won 8 straight meetings in this series, including Tuesday’s series opener. The Rays have rolled up a 37-18 record at home, too, while the Marlins are just 23-28 on the road.

Alcantara has struggled mightily after his 2022 Cy Young campaign, and Eflin has been on another plane this season.

Run line/Against the spread

The RAYS -1.5 (+125) are a solid play on the run line, as Tampa Bay not only has the 8 straight wins, but it has cashed on the run line in 5 of those outings as the favorite.

The Marlins +1.5 (-150) have dropped 5 of the last 6 games by 2 or more runs, and the offense has been a major reason for the struggles. It’s hard to imagine Miami breaking out the lumber against the red-hot Eflin.

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Over/Under

UNDER 7.5 (-115) is the play in this Sunshine State matinee matchup.

Miami has struggled to plate runs lately, totaling just 2.9 RPG over the last 10 outings. For Tampa Bay, Eflin has allowed 3 or fewer runs in 6 of the last 7 starts, totaling 5 quality starts during the span.

The Under is 8-3 in the lpast 11 games overall, and 4-1 in the previous 5 interleague matchups.

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Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Miami Marlins (54-47) and Tampa Bay Rays (61-42) open a 2-game interleague set Tuesday on Florida’s Gulf Coast. First pitch at Tropicana Field is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2023; Tampa Bay took last year’s series 4-0

Miami won 3-2 Sunday in an extra-inning game at home against the Colorado Rockies. The victory snapped an 8-game losing skid for the Marlins and now the Fish are looking to break a losing streak on the road: Miami is 0-9 with a 6.84 ERA across 9 road tilts since June 30.

Tampa Bay lost 3 of 4 to the Baltimore Orioles over the weekend. However, the Rays do have a winning streak going: they have downed the Marlins in 8 straight games since 2021.

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Marlins at Rays projected starters

RHP Edward Cabrera vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow

Cabrera (5-5, 4.50 ERA) is making his 16th start. He’s logged a 1.38 WHIP, 5.5 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 through 72 IP.

  • Returned from the IL (shoulder impingement) in his last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2H, 3 BB, 6 K vs. St. Louis Cardinals July last Tuesday
  • Owns a 4.08 ERA over 36 career games
  • Has clocked a 5.93 ERA and 1.49 WHIP across 9 road starts in 2023

Glasnow (3-3, 3.62 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has registered a 1.19 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 13.2 K/9 through 54 2/3 IP.

  • Has fanned 47 batters against just 5 BB across his last 5 starts (29 1/3 IP)
  • Got a late start to the season after an oblique injury. Went past 6 IP for the 1st time in his last turn:  No-decision, 7 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 0 BB, 9 K vs. Orioles Thursday

Marlins at Rays odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:46 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Marlins +176 (bet $100 to win $176) | Rays -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-125) | Rays -1.5 (+104)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Marlins at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 5, Marlins 2

Moneyline

Tampa is the lean, but the value in the play is best leveraged around -200. PASS, and look to get the Rays by the Fish in a multi-run win.

Run line/Against the spread

Tampa has seen some losses pile up of late, but situational hitting has been a big culprit over a slew of close games. The Rays own a .179 batting average with runners in scoring position since July 4. The club has also been undone by a 14-19 mark in 1-run games this season.

Glasnow figures as better than what shows in his surface ERA. He’s pitched through the traffic of a .320 batting average with runners in scoring position, and he’s getting a lot of ground balls but has been hurt by a home runs/fly balls rate of 19%.

There is some risk here in a low-total environment, and these clubs play in a lot of tight ballgames, but there is value in the RAYS -1.5 (+104).

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Over/Under

A low score figures to develop in this one. The total and pricing here don’t offer much leverage, though. An Under 7.5 would perhaps be worth some partial-unit action at -105, but even that price would offer just a sliver of value. PASS.

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Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (18-23) play the Tampa Bay Rays (25-17) in the second game of a 2-game set at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tampa beat Miami 4-0 in the series opener Tuesday thanks to a quality start by LHP Shane McClanahan who pitched 6-scoreless innings, striking out 9 with just 2 walks and 4 hits.

Season series: Tampa leads 1-0.

Marlins at Rays projected starters

RHP Cody Poteet vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen

Poteet is 0-0 with a 0.78 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 23 IP over 1 start and 9 relief appearances.

  • Last start: No-decision with 4 2/3-scoreless IP, 1 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Miami’s 5-1 home win vs. the Washington Nationals May 17.

Rasmussen is 4-1 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 across 38 2/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 6-1, at home vs. the Detroit Tigers last Wednesday with 5-scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 7 K.

Marlins at Rays odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:51 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Rays -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-150) | Rays -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Marlins at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 3, Marlins 1

Money line

LEAN to the RAYS (-180) only because there’s reverse line movement headed towards Miami in the betting market and the Under is my favorite wager in this game.

However, Tampa is the right side because the Rays dominate interleague play while the Marlins struggle against AL teams and Rasmussen is very effective on extended rest.

Tampa has the second-best interleague record at 18-6 straight up (SU) since the beginning of last season and Miami is an MLB-worst 5-21 SU in interleague play over that span.

Rasmussen’s last start was a week ago and he is 3-0 for his career in starts with 6 or more rest days in between with a 1.59 ERA (3.05 career ERA), 0.71 WHIP (1.10 career WHIP) and 5.4 K/BB rate (3.1 K/BB career rate).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because I’m not confident enough in Tampa to lay it with the Rays -1.5 (+125). Also, the Marlins are 10-3 RL as road underdogs while the Rays are 7-13 RL as home favorites.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (+110) only because the market is hammering the Over so there’s a chance we get a better number closer to the first pitch.

However, Tampa is 8-12 O/U as a home favorite, 0-5 O/U in Rasmussen’s past 6 starts with six or more days of rest and Tropicana Field is 24th in park factor — it’s very pitcher-friendly. Miami is 9-17 O/U vs. AL teams since the start of last season.

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Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (18-22) head to Tropicana Field Tuesday to start a 2-game interleague series with the Tampa Bay Rays (24-17) at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami snapped a 3-game losing skid and prevented a sweep by the Atlanta Braves in a 3-game series with a 4-3 win Sunday. The Marlins are 5-5 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.

Tampa lost the rubber match of a 3-game set with the Baltimore Orioles 7-6 in extra innings Sunday and is 6-4 SU in its last 10.

The Rays beat the Marlins 5-1 in last year’s season series and Tampa had a plus-11 run differential in those meetings.

Marlins at Rays projected starters

RHP Pablo Lopez vs. LHP Shane McClanahan

Lopez is 4-1 with an NL-leading 1.57 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 46 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision with 3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 2 K in Miami’s 5-4 home loss to the Washington Nationals Wednesday.
  • 2021 vs. the Rays: No-decision in Miami’s 6-4 loss in Tampa April 2 with 5-scoreless IP, 2 H, 2 BB and 4 K.
  • vs. Rays on the current roster: 1.56 FIP with a .187/.233/.265 expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash line, 30.8 K% and 83.2 mph exit velocity in 26 plate appearances.

McClanahan is 3-2 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 through 46 1/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Win with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 7 K at home vs. the Detroit Tigers last Tuesday.
  • 2021 vs. the Marlins: Win, 7-3, at home Sept. 25 with 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 3 K.

Marlins at Rays odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Rays -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-190) | Rays -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Marlins at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 4, Marlins 2

Money line

LEAN RAYS (-150) because their only edge in this matchup is the hitting department and there’s reverse line movement headed towards Miami in the betting market.

A vast majority of the action is on Tampa per pregame.com, yet the Marlins (+125) have been lowered from a +148 opener. This type of suspicious line movement suggests the oddsmakers are daring the public to bet more Rays.

Both starters are in the Cy Young conversations for their respective leagues through the first 5 weeks of the season but Tampa’s lineup is far more productive vs. left-handed pitching than Miami’s against righties.

The Rays are scoring 4.7 R/9 vs. righties compared to just 3.6 against lefties while the Marlins are scoring 3.5 R/9 vs. lefties and 4.6 against righties. Miami’s lineup ranks 25th in wRC+, 27th in wOBA and dead-last in BB/K rate, per FanGraphs.

Perhaps we get a better number for Tampa’s ML closer to the first pitch but, for now, I’d RISK only 1 unit on the RAYS (-150) instead of betting 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a lean to the Rays -1.5 (+155) because this is a chunky payout but Tampa is just 6-13 RL as a home favorite and Miami is 10-2 RL as a road underdog.

If another Miami starter was on the mound or if Tampa’s pitching staff was a little healthier, I’d contemplate laying it with the Rays -1.5 (+155) at this price point.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (-112) because both starters are dealing right now and Tropicana Field ranks 24th in run factor which means it is a very pitcher-friendly ball park. Tampa is also 8-11 O/U as a home favorite, Miami is 5-7 O/U as a road underdog and Marlins-Rays games were 1-2 O/U in Tampa last season.

However, this is a sharp total and my favorite wager in this game is Tampa’s ML.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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