Tag: Marlins Padres odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (19-35) visit the San Diego Padres (28-28) on Monday. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Padres won 4 of 6 games in 2023

The Marlins won 3-1 Sunday over the Arizona Diamondbacks to cover as +115 road underdogs. 1B Jake Burger led the way with 2 RBIs while LHP Ryan Weathers (0 ER in 6 IP) picked up the win.

San Diego snapped a 2-game losing steak and avoided the sweep with a 5-2 win over the New York Yankees on Sunday while covering as a +118 home underdog. Five Padres players had a RBI and 2B Jake Cronenworth scored 2 runs. RHP Jeremiah Estrada allowed 0 ER in 1 2/3 innings to get the win.

Marlins at Padres projected starters

LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Michael King

Rogers (1-6, 6.11 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.84 WHIP, 4.53 BB/9 and 8.08 K/9 in 45 2/3 IP.

  • Marlins are 1-9 in his last 10 starts
  • Has allowed 4 or more ER in 3 of his last 4 starts
  • Has allowed 31 ER and 5 HR while striking out 41 and walking 23 in his 10 appearances

King (4-4, 4.28 ERA) makes his 11th start and 12th appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 4.13 BB/9 and 9.89 K/9 in 61 IP.

  • Padres are 7-4 in his 11 outings
  • He’s allowed 3 or more ER in 4 of his last 6 starts
  • Has allowed 29 ER and 12 HR while striking out 67 and walking 28 in 11 appearances

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Marlins at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:41 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Marlins +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Padres -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-135) | Padres -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Marlins at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 6, Marlins 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The value in better on the Padres run line.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PADRES -1.5 (+110).

While the Marlins are 7-3 in their last 10 games, 2 of their last 3 losses have been by 2 or more runs and with Rogers on the mound, who has a 6.11 ERA and has allowed 4 or more ER in 3 of his last 4 starts, the Padres offense will prove too difficult. Each of the last 3 San Diego wins have come by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (-120).

While the Marlins have scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 7 games, the Padres have scored 5 or more in 3 of their last 5 games. With a lower than average total, the powerful Padres offense will play a large roll in the Over hitting.

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Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (65-62) look to take the rubber match against the San Diego Padres (60-67) Wednesday in the finale of a 3-game set. First pitch at Petco Park is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 3-2

The Marlins broke a 3-game losing streak Tuesday with a 3-0 win as +155 underdogs. They are 1 game back in the NL Wild Card race and 2-3 on a current 6-game road swing — they went 1-2 at the Los Angeles Dodgers on the first half of the trip.

The stubborn Padres continue to fail to live up to their preseason hype. They are 6 games back of that elusive 2nd NL Wild Card spot. They are 4-5 on a current 10-game homestand, which concludes in this series finale.

Marlins at Padres projected starters

RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Seth Lugo

Alcantara (6-10, 4.11 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 164 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 3 HR, 1 BB, 6 K in 11-3 road win at Dodgers Friday
  • Pitched 8 or more innings in 3 of last 5 starts, including 2 complete-game victories — 3-1, 2.13 ERA (38 IP, 9 ER) in the 5 starts
  • Averaged modest 2.1 ER allowed in last 10 starts (2.75 ERA, 68 2/3 IP, 21 ER)
  • Career vs. Padres: 2-1, 2.16 ERA (25 IP, 6 ER) in 4 starts
  • 2023 vs. Padres: 1 start, no-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 3 K in 9-4 home loss May 30

Lugo (4-6, 3.92 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 103 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 4-0 home victory vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Friday
  • Last 10 starts: 1-3, 3.97 ERA (56 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.1 K/9 — Padres went 3-7
  • Career vs. Marlins: 3-1, 3.00 ERA (57 IP, 19 ER) in 32 appearances (5 starts) — last faced Miami last season

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Marlins at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:52 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-200) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Marlins at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 7, Padres 2

Moneyline

LEAN MARLINS (+105).

After defeating the majors’ ERA leader in Padres LHP Blake Snell (2.73 ERA) Tuesday, the Marlins turn to their ace as they continue their quest to make the playoffs.

Although Lugo has pitched well in 4 of his last 5 starts, the Padres can’t seem to piece it together. As mentioned, they’re just 3-7 in Lugo’s last 10 starts.

A STRONG LEAN toward MIAMI (+105) should be safe as Alcantara is due for another efficient, lengthy start.

Run line/Against the spread

AVOID.

The Marlins rank in the bottom third of the majors in batting with runners in scoring position — .249 per MLB.com.

Although, the Padres have lost by 2 or more runs in each of their last 5 defeats, the -200 juice on the Marlins +1.5 isn’t worth the risk.

However, I could see backing the alternate line of MARLINS -1.5 (+180) for a small wager.

Over/Under

The alternate line of UNDER 8 (-120) is the proper play here … even with these streaky offenses.

Four out of Alcantara’s last 5 starts have had 8 combined runs or less.

Plus, the Marlins have failed to score more than 3 runs in 4 of the last 5 games.

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Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (64-62) continue their road series against the San Diego Padres (60-66) on Tuesday with the 2nd game of a 3-game series. First pitch from Petco Park is at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 3-1

The Marlins have lost 3 games in a row and 5 of their last 6, dropping the series opener 6-2 on Monday. Miami is in 3rd place in the NL East, 17 games behind the division-leading Atlanta Braves, but just 1 1/2 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot.

The Padres had dropped 3 of 4 games to the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks over the weekend before Monday’s win. They are 5-10 in their last 15 games. San Diego is in 4th place in the NL West, trailing the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 1/2 games, and is 5 1/2 games behind the final NL Wild Card.

Marlins at Padres projected starters

LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. LHP Blake Snell

Luzardo (8-8, 4.13 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 137 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 6 R (5 ER), 8 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 12-5 home loss to Houston Astros Wednesday
  • Is 0-3 with an 11.68 ERA in 3 August starts

Snell (10-8, 2.65 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 through 136 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-2 home win over Baltimore Orioles Wednesday
  • The Padres are 5-0 in Snell’s last 5 outings

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Marlins at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Padres -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-135) | Padres -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Marlins at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 6, Marlins 3

Moneyline

Neither team has been winning much recently. The Padres have lost 10 of their last 15 games while the Marlins have lost 5 of 6 and are 6-11 in their last 17 games.

However, the Padres are 5-0 in Snell’s last 5 starts and the left-hander leads the majors with a 2.65 ERA.

The Marlins have lost Luzardo’s last 3 starts.

The Padres should pick up the victory but at -190, they aren’t worth the action.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The Padres’ last 13 wins have been by at least 2 runs. All 5 of their wins in Snell’s last 5 outings have been by at least 2 runs.

Seven of the Marlins’ last 8 losses have been by more than 1 run.

BET PADRES -1.5 (+110).

Over/Under

Snell’s last 4 starts have had 8 or more total runs.

The Padres’ last 3 games have had 8 or more runs.

Three of the 4 matchups between the 2 teams his season have had 8 or more runs.

Seven of Miami’s last 11 games have had at least 8 total runs.

BET OVER 7.5 (-110).

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Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (64-61) and San Diego Padres (59-66) open a 3-game set Monday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 2-1

The Marlins are coming off a 3-1 loss as +170 underdogs at the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday. Miami has lost 4 of 5 and is 1-game behind the Chicago Cubs for the final NL Wild Card spot.

The Padres’ most recent game was an 8-1 loss as -193 home favorites vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday. San Diego is 3-4 on its current 10-game homestand and is 6 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot.

Marlins at Padres projected starters

LHP Ryan Weathers vs. RHP Michael Wacha

Weathers (1-7, 6.89 ERA) makes his 11th start and 14th appearance. He has a 1.70 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 through 48 1/3 innings with the Padres and Marlins.

  • Was traded to the Marlins Aug. 1; has never faced Padres
  • Last outing: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 5 K in relief during 9-8 loss at Texas Rangers Aug. 5
  • Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 9-4 loss with Padres at Philadelphia Phillies July 15
  • 2023 road stats: 1-4, 6.09 ERA (34 IP, 23 ER) in 6 starts and 3 relief appearances

Wacha (9-2, 2.68 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 90 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 10-3 home victory vs. Baltimore Orioles Tuesday
  • 2023 home stats: 6-2, 2.26 ERA (51 2/3, 13 ER) in 9 starts
  • Career vs. Marlins: 3-1, 4.05 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 12 ER) in 5 starts — last faced Miami in 2020

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Marlins at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:21 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Marlins +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Padres -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-125) | Padres -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Marlins at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Marlins 3

Moneyline

San Diego (-210) has won in 4 of Wacha’s last 5 starts and should bounce back Monday, but it’s being slightly overvalued on the moneyline.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

The Padres are just 4-10 straight up in their last 14 games and expecting them to win by multiple runs is a tough ask. San Diego is also just 27-30 on the run line this season as home favorites, according to TeamRankings.com.

While Miami struggled in its last 2 outings at the Dodgers, it was facing 1 of the hottest teams in MLB and still managed to end the Dodgers’ 11-game winning streak with an 11-3 victory Friday. Miami should look much better in this series vs. the slumping Padres.

BET MARLINS +1.5 (-125).

Over/Under

The Under is 44-35-2 (55.7%) this season when Miami faces NL teams.

The Under is also 30-24-3 (55.6%) this year when San Diego is a home favorite. With Wacha on the mound for the Padres, this game should stay relatively low-scoring.

BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (16-9) host Game 1 of a 4-game set with the Miami Marlins (12-12) Thursday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Following a 7-game winning streak, Miami has lost 4 consecutive games, which includes a 3-game sweep in its previous series vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks.

San Diego split a doubleheader Wednesday with the Cleveland Guardians to make up for a rainout Tuesday, but the Padres are 7-3 in their last 10 games.

The Padres beat the Marlins in last year’s season series, 4-3, but Miami outscored San Diego by 4 runs in those meetings (31-27).

Marlins at Padres projected starters

LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. RHP Nick Martinez

Luzardo (2-1, 3.10 ERA) beat the Seattle Mariners 3-1 Saturday, going 6 IP, allowing 1 ER on 2 H, 1 HR and 2 BB with 5 K.

  • He has a 2.31 FIP, 1.08 WHIP and 12.4 K/9 in 20 1/3 IP across 4 starts this season.

Martinez (1-2, 4.12 ERA) got a win at the Cincinnati Reds 7-5 Thursday, throwing 5 IP with 2 ER on 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K.

  • He has a 6.55 FIP, 1.68 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 in 19 2/3 IP over 4 starts this year.

Marlins at Padres odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins -117 (bet $117 to win $100) | Padres -103 (bet $103 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+145) | Padres +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Marlins at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 5, Padres 2

Money line

BET the MARLINS (-117) for 1.25 units because they have a significant edge in the pitching matchup, and Miami has been steamed from an underdog on the opener up to a slight favorite.

Both lineups hit well against the opposing starters’ pitch handedness. But, Luzardo’s pitching peripherals rank atop the MLB while Martinez grades in the bottom 20th percentile in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage and barrel rate, according to Statcast.

Also, San Diego’s bullpen is 26th in FIP (4.27), per FanGraphs, and the Padres all of their rostered relievers in Wednesday’s doubleheader vs. the Guardians. The Padres could be fatigued considering they played in Cleveland Wednesday and flew halfway across the country to host this series.

BET the MARLINS (-117).

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Run line/Against the spread

Slight LEAN to the MARLINS -1.5 (+145) based on the prior analysis, because their RL has also been hit by sharp line movement and the Padres +1.5 (-180) are just 1-3 RL as home underdogs with a minus-2.3 RL margin.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-130) because Petco Park is a pitcher-friendly ballpark. These starters have a combined 2-6 O/U record this season, and the Under is way pricier than the Over even though the market is hammering the Over.

It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-130) because Miami’s lineup could rake Martinez, who is a “bottom-of-the-rotation” starter, and the San Diego bullpen’s pitching peripherals are subpar.

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Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (47-66) and the San Diego Padres (65-49) face each other Tuesday for the second game of a three-game series. First pitch is at 10:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Marlins vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Braxton Garrett (1-1, 3.58 ERA) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 27 2/3 IP across five starts and one relief appearance.

  • Scattered 2 runs and 4 hits in 7 innings while striking out 10 in a 3-2 victory July 24 against the Padres. It is his only win this season.
  • Has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in any start this season.

Padres RHP Craig Stammen (5-2, 2.71 ERA) makes his second start of the season in his 49th appearance. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 63 IP.

  • Is opening a game for the second time this season. The first time was June 29 when he allowed 1 run on 3 hits in 2 innings at Cincinnati.
  • Allowed 2 runs on 4 hits in 1 inning of work against the Arizona Diamondbacks in his last appearance but before that had a seven-game scoreless streak that spanned 9 innings.

Marlins at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:49 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Padres -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-122) | Padres -1.5 (-102)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Padres 6, Marlins 3

Money line (ML)

The Marlins are currently winless on their road trip, having lost the first four games, including Monday night’s series opener to the Padres. They are 20-39 this season on the road and 32-41 against teams over .500.

The Padres have won three games in a row and their 39 home wins are the most in all of baseball.

Take the PADRES (-220).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Miami is 58-54 ATS overall and 29-29 ATS on the road. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.

The Padres are 59-55 ATS overall, 31-31 ATS at home and have covered the spread in six of their last seven games. They have covered the spread in every win since July 23 and have failed to do so only twice in their last 12 victories.

Take the PADRES -1.5 (-102).

Over/Under (O/U)

Seven of the last eight games for the Marlins have had totals of 8 or more runs.

Eight of the last nine and 11 of the last 13 games for the Padres have finished with totals of at least 8 runs.

While three of the five games between the two teams have had totals of fewer than 8 runs, the last two between them had 12 and 11 runs combined.

Take OVER 7.5 (-125).

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