Tag: market value

Projected market value for Saints’ top pending free agents

Here’s a quick look at projected market value for some of the New Orleans Saints’ top pending free agents, including complicated cases like Michael Thomas and Jameis Winston:

We’re just a few weeks away from the start of free agency, and the New Orleans Saints have a couple of players who could hit the open market — including several starters and some ascending backups hoping for larger roles in 2024.

But could the Saints get priced out of their services? Different outlets have projected market values for some of New Orleans’ pending free agents, so let’s take a look at the numbers from Pro Football Focus, Spotrac, and Over The Cap:

2022 NFL Free Agency: Estimating the price of signing Chandler Jones

Signing Jones wouldn’t be cheap, but it’s a deal the Jaguars could afford.

The Jacksonville Jaguars may not have the most cap space to spend in the league this offseason, but they will still be in the top three of the NFL in terms of available cash to spend. After a 2021 offseason that featured mostly value signings, this team could look to make a bigger splash this time around.

While this team needs more help on offense than defense, it has holes across the board. It could plug a major one if it was able to add outside linebacker Chandler Jones from the Arizona Cardinals.

Jones is primarily an edge rusher can play off-ball occasionally (has received 42 targets in coverage), and that versatility would be welcome for a Jaguars defense that is lacking playmakers. Josh Allen has that potential, but pairing him up with a player like Jones would prove to be a major boost for this defense.

Second-year player K’Lavon Chaisson didn’t take much of a step forward after a bad rookie season, and while Dawuane Smoot had a breakout year, he may not be a starting-caliber player.

The Jaguars hired Brentson Buckner away from Arizona to serve as the new defensive line coach under Doug Pederson, and that has spurred speculation that the Jaguars could target Jones this offseason.

To sign away Arizona’s all-time sacks leader, it won’t be cheap. According to Spotrac, Jones is expected to have a market value of $14.5 million/year over three years for a deal that would have a total value somewhere in the neighborhood of $43 million. That’s certainly not pennies for a 31-year-old.

Should the Jaguars pursue Jones this offseason?

Age and price tag aside, going after Jones would still make a lot of sense for the Jags. Coming off a torn bicep and some offseason drama in which he made a trade request that wasn’t granted by the Cardinals, a down year would have been expected.

Though it was his lowest sack total since 2014, it’s hard to call Jones’ production in 2021 “down” in any way. He finished with 10.5 sacks, 12 tackles for loss, and six forced fumbles. He’s also not too far removed from a 19-sack season in 2019 that represented his career-high.

While his best play may be behind him, he should have a lot of good seasons left if he can maintain his health, and with a player like Allen already on the roster, Jones could be a very helpful piece for this team up front defensively.

The Jaguars need to use some of that money to make splashy additions this offseason, and Jones, while expensive, would be an immediate upgrade on defense.

Extending D.J. Chark Jr. could be manageable, per Spotrac’s market value projections

An extension for Chark would likely be worth around $11.9 million annually.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have several areas of need this offseason, but there aren’t many bigger priorities than adding weapons in the passing game to aid in the development of second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence. As far as the receiver position goes, the team has one massive decision to make regarding D.J. Chark Jr.

The former second-round pick struggled with drops as a rookie in 2018, but he was vastly improved in his second season and has been the team’s most reliable playmaker since. His 2021 season was cut short with a broken ankle in Week 4, though, and now it’s time to decide whether to offer him an extension or let him test free agency.

The Jags could decide to go in a different direction at receiver, but if they decide to extend Chark, it might hurt their pockets too much, at least in the eyes of Spotrac. According to them, a market value deal for Chark would be in the range of $47.6 million over four years, which would pay an average of $11.9 million annually.

That deal would make him just the 22nd highest-paid receiver in the league, which seems like good value for a player with Chark’s upside. Perhaps more importantly, it’s not a price tag that would prohibit the Jags from targeting a top-tier receiver in free agency like Chris Godwin.

The Jags don’t have a lot of big contracts on the books, and with the team currently projected to have the third-most available cap space in the league, they could easily afford to sign Chark. Considering his decent production — 2,042 yards and 15 touchdowns on 147 catches in four years — that seems like a deal they’d be happy to make, even if he’s only crossed the 1,000-yard threshold once back in 2019.

Extending Cam Robinson could cost Jags nearly $17 million/year, per Spotrac

The value of a projected extension for Robinson would make him the seventh highest-paid left tackle in football.

Jacksonville’s toughest decision last offseason regarded offensive tackle Cam Robinson, a second-round pick in 2017 whose rookie contract was expiring. The Jaguars kicked the can down the road a year by placing the franchise tag on Robinson, but now the time has come to decide on his future once again.

The team could choose to tag him once again, but that would result in an even bigger one-year deal than the $13.8 million agreement he played under in 2021. With that being said, signing him to a long-term contract would be even pricier.

According to Spotrac, a market-value deal for Robinson would be around a four-year, $67.3 million commitment that would pay the veteran tackle an average of $16.8 million. That would rank seventh among NFL left tackles and give him a contract similar to those of others at the position like Garrett Bolles, D.J. Humphries, and Laremy Tunsil.

With the Jags either losing or opting out of the bidding wars for players like Trent Williams and Orlando Brown last offseason, retaining Robinson on a one-year basis made a good deal of sense, given the other positions the team also needed to prioritize. Robinson was decent in 2021, but it’s a stretch to say his production justifies a contract of this size.

According to Pro Football Focus, he earned a season grade of just 67.3, squarely in the bottom of the average range. That grade ranked just 50th among 84 NFL tackles, and that’s not exactly the type of contract year a staff would like to see from a player they’re about to hand a top-10 contract at the position to.

If Jacksonville decides to move on from Robinson and let him test free agency, it has options. Walker Little, a second-round pick from 2021, started three games this season. Though it’s a small sample size, he registered the third-highest offensive grade on the team at 68.8 (higher than Robinson). The Jags could also shore up the position with the first overall pick by taking a player like Alabama’s Evan Neal or North Carolina State’s Ikem Ekwonu.

Regardless, if the Jaguars decide they want Cam Robinson in Jacksonville in the long run, it won’t be a cheap move for the team.

Report: Drew Brees, Saints nearing agreement on new contract extension

The New Orleans Saints and quarterback Drew Brees are close to finalizing a new contract extension for the 2020 season, reports Yahoo Sports

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The New Orleans Saints and quarterback Drew Brees are close to an agreement on a new contract extension, Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports reported Monday night. Robinson added that Brees’ new deal “could be completed as soon as tomorrow,” ahead of Wednesday’s 3 p.m. CT deadline would come into play (raising Brees’ 2020 salary cap hit dramatically).

Obviously the Saints would want to stay ahead of any more salary cap hurdles, so hammering out a new contract with Brees would be in their interests. Once Brees is settled with a firm cap figure for the next season or two, the Saints can take a more proactive approach in dealing with their own pending free agents and scouring the options on the open market.

But how much will Brees re-sign for? Recent reports suggest that he’s open to accepting a lower salary than he could demand given his resume, which would be a huge boost for New Orleans. Any discounts Brees agrees to can be put to use signing other players and increasing the Saints’ odds of winning another Super Bowl. Here’s hoping they get this one squared away promptly.

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Expect another below-market contract extension for Drew Brees

The New Orleans Saints and quarterback Drew Brees are at work on his next contract extension, which should again sit beneath market value.

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New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees is due another contract extension when the NFL’s fiscal year restarts on March 18, and it appears he’ll be willing to settle for another team-friendly deal. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport suggested as much in a Thursday television appearance, reporting that the difference in salary between what Brees may agree to and what he could earn on the open market should be enough for the Saints to sign another significant veteran free agent.

This makes sense, given recent history. Brees’ last contract extension with the Saints brought in $50 million over two years, at a (relatively) middling rate of $25 million per year. At the time, that annual salary accounted for about 13.5% of the NFL salary cap; accounting for the cap’s rise in subsequent years, a comparable per-year payout would be $27 million.

For context, the difference between an approximated $27 million and the market value of $33 million or greater for franchise quarterbacks is $6 million. That’s enough to sign a starting-quality addition, near to the 2020 salary cap hits of left guard Nick Easton ($5.5 million), nose tackle Malcom Brown ($6 million),and slot corner Patrick Robinson ($6.15 million).

With lesser passers such as like Kirk Cousins (who bagged $28 million per year from the Minnesota Vikings) and Jared Goff (who is reeling in $33.5 million per year from the Los Angeles Rams) surpassing Brees in the overall rankings, it’s a sign of the veteran’s team-first attitude that he’s willing to settle for less. And the Saints are likely happy to reciprocate. We should find out soon just where his next (and maybe final) Saints contract matches up against his peers.