Tag: Mariners Padres odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Seattle Mariners (49-43) and San Diego Padres (49-45) meet Wednesday to close out a 2-game interleague set in Southern California. The opening pitch at Petco Park is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mariners lead 1-0

Seattle, which had gone just 5-9 across its previous 14 road games, won Tuesday’s series opener 8-3. The Mariners had 5 doubles and 3 HRs in a game they led wire to wire.

San Diego’s setback Tuesday marked its 3rd in a row. After batting .331 with a .530 slugging percentage from July 3-6, the Padres have managed just 8 combined hits over their last 2 games.

Mariners at Padres projected starters

RHP Bryce Miller vs. RHP Michael King

Miller (6-7, 3.84 ERA) is tabbed for his 19th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 103 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 7-3 win vs. Baltimore Orioles Thursday
  • Has never faced the Padres

King (7-5, 3.51 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 105 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 3-1 win at Texas Rangers Thursday
  • Career vs. Mariners: 0-0, 3.38 ERA (2 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 2 games
  • Has a 2.45 ERA across his last 8 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Mariners at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:32 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Mariners +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Padres -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-190) | Padres -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Mariners at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Mariners 4

Moneyline

Seattle is 6-12 in its last 18 games; San Diego is 12-6 in its last 18.

The battle of right-handers makes for an advantage for San Diego. The Friars’ .763 OPS against righties ranks 2nd in MLB. The home team is at a bullpen disadvantage in surface stats, especially of late (4.93 ERA since June 1). But expected-ERA figures based on analytics tell a different story, and its likely San Diego’s relief corps is being slightly underplayed by bettors.

TAKE THE PADRES (+115).

Run line/Against the spread

The juice is loose, and with an lean toward a higher-than-projected score, the run line underdog does not bring back enough return here. STEER CLEAR.

Over/Under

The total has gone Over in 10 of Seattle’s last 13 games on the road and in 10 of the Mariners’ last 11 on the road against San Diego.

The Over has also prevailed in 5 of San Diego’s last 6 games in a dozen straight Friars’ games at Petco.

Miller has been prone to louder contact than one might think looking at his ERA. And both Miller and King are fly-ballers pitching on what figures to be a wind-blowing-out game. Mix in the Padres being on their best platoon side, and an 8-plus has enough value.

TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-115).

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Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Seattle Mariners (49-43) and San Diego Padres (49-45) collide in the front half of a 2-game set Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Mariners won 3-1 last year

Seattle is on the road after a 3-6 home stand. With significant struggles on offense, the Mariners have gone just 5-12 since June 19. Over that stretch, Seattle has averaged just 3.18 runs per game on a whiff-heavy .600 OPS.

The Padres have been trending the other way since that same date in June. Over its last 17 games, San Diego is 12-5 on 5.82 RPG.

Mariners at Padres projected starters

RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Adam Mazur

Gilbert (5-5, 2.91 ERA) is making his 19th start. He has a 0.92 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 117 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 4-1 home defeat vs. Baltimore Orioles Wednesday
  • Last start marked his shortest since May 9
  • Owns 3.18 ERA when pitching on 5 days of rest
  • Career vs. Padres: 3-1, 1.11 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 4 starts

Mazur (1-2, 7.52 ERA) is lined up for his 7th start. He owns a 1.82 WHIP, 5.8 BB/9 and 5.1 K/9 in 26 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 6-4 win at Texas Rangers Wednesday
  • Has allowed 8 runs on 13 hits in his last 9 IP
  • Never faced Mariners before

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Mariners at Padres odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 8:27 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Mariners -142 (bet $142 to win $100) | Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+116) | Padres +1.5 (-142)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)

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Mariners at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Mariners 3

Moneyline

The Padres are the more sound team of late. The Mariners are clearly worthy of being favorites based on the pitching match-up, but the price here reflects too much lean toward the visiting nine.

Gilbert has been aided by a .234 batting average on balls in play, and that’s helped keep his ERA a tad lower than perhaps it should be. The opposite holds the San Diego bullpen. Shaky numbers in the last 5 weeks or so have been ballooned by a high BABIP.

Over their last 5 series openers, the Friars have gone 4-1. BET SAN DIEGO (+120).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS: A San Diego lean is not priced with enough value.

Over/Under

San Diego home games have seen the Over cash in 11 straight. Overall, the Over is 13-3 across the Padres’ last 16 games.

With some fade to Seattle’s pitching and San Diego swinging hot bats, BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-122). Consider a partial-unit play unless the tag becomes more appealing.

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Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

The Seattle Mariners (30-30) and the San Diego Padres (28-33) wrap up a 2-game interleague series Wednesday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mariners lead 1-0; Mariners won 2022 series 3-1

The Mariners posted a 4-1 victory in Tuesday’s interleague series opener behind RHP Logan Gilbert. The game was still in question until the top of the 8th inning before the M’s tacked on a pair of insurance runs to put a bow on the scoring. OFs Teoscar Hernandez and Julio Rodriguez each had solo home runs and 2-hit games.

The Padres have alternated losses and wins in each of the past 9 games. San Diego’s offense has been limited to a single run in 4 of its last 7 contests, with the Under unsurprisingly going 6-1 during that stretch.

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Mariners at Padres projected starters

RHP George Kirby vs. RHP Michael Wacha

Kirby (5-4, 3.04 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 71 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K in a 1-0 home win vs. the New York Yankees last Wednesday
  • 2023 road splits: 2-2, 2.34 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 9 ER) with 4 BB, 25 K and a .233 opponent batting average (OBA) in 5 starts with 1 CG

Wacha (5-2, 3.48 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 62 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 8 K in a 2-1 home loss vs. the Chicago Cubs Friday
  • 2023 home splits: 3-2, 3.44 ERA (34 IP, 13 ER – 4 HR) with a .222 OBA in 6 starts

Mariners at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:48 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mariners +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Padres -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+165) | Padres +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Mariners at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 3, Padres 2

Moneyline

The MARINERS (+100) are a solid play at even money as they look to pull off the 2-game road sweep.

Seattle has won 5 straight games inside the AL West while cashing in 4 of the past 5 interleague games against a right-handed starting pitcher.

The Padres have managed to win just 3 of their last 10 games at home while going 2-5 in the previous 7 vs. righties.

Run line/Against the spread

The Padres +1.5 (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return if you need a little insurance and do not like them straight up. I know I sure do not.

San Diego is just 1-9 in the past 10 tries in Game 2 of a series and is just 2-7 in the past 9 interleague outings.

PASS.

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Over/Under

The UNDER 7.5 (+100) might be the best play on the board in this matinee affair.

The Under cashed on Tuesday, and it is 5-1 in the past 6 for Seattle against NL West foes. The Under is 4 straight against teams with a losing record.

The Under has cashed in 20 of the past 26 games at Petco Park while going 19-6-2 in the previous 27 interleague contests. The Under is also 11-1-1 in the past 13 interleague battles at Petco Park.

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Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Seattle Mariners (29-30) and San Diego Padres (28-32) open up a 2-game set Tuesday at Petco Park. First pitch is at 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Seattle won the series 3-1 in 2022

Seattle was swept by the Texas Rangers over the weekend and has dropped 5 of its last 6 games. The Mariners gave up a combined 28 runs in the last 2 games in the Texas heat. They are 9-11 over their last 20 outings and have fallen to 10 games out in the AL West.

The Padres continue to be stuck in neutral at 5-5 over the last 10 games. They have really struggled to string together victories at 9-11 and 12-18 over the last 20 and 30 games, respectively. The root of their problem begins offensively, where they are 24th in runs/9 (4.18), 29th in BA (.222) and 23rd in OPS (.696).

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Mariners at Padres projected starters

RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

Gilbert (3-3, 4.08 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 64 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K vs. New York Yankees last Tuesday
  • 2 career starts vs. San Diego: 1-1, 1.74 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 6 K in 10 1/3 IP

Musgrove (3-2, 4.71 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 36 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 10-1 road win vs. the Miami Marlins Wednesday
  • 4 career starts vs. Seattle: 1-1, 7.58 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 14 K in 19 IP

Mariners at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:37 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mariners +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-185) | Padres -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Mariners at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Mariners 4

Moneyline

In a small sample size, Musgrove has a 7.43 ERA at home over 3 starts as he tries to find his groove following a late start to the season. However, he has given up just 1 ER over 12 1/3 innings across his last 2 starts — both on the road. Meanwhile, Gilbert is coming off a rough start and has yielded at least 2 ER in 8 straight starts and 9 of 11.

The Padres have the edge in the bullpen with the 3rd-best ERA at 3.11 while Seattle is 9th with a 3.68 ERA. This Padres team has to start hitting at some point, and Seattle has lost 4 straight road games.

LEAN PADRES (-135).

Run line/Against the spread

I prefer the Mariners’ side here as they’re 15-12 on the RL on the road, and San Diego is just 13-18 at home. However, I’m not willing to pay -185 for it.

I like the Over in the First 5 here as Gilbert is allowing at least 2 ER in every start, and Musgrove has been shaky at home. Take the OVER 4 TOTAL RUNS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-125).

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Over/Under

I like the Over for the full game, too. It’s slated to be a little cool at 64 degrees with an 8 mph gust blowing out to right-center. The Over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings in San Diego and 6-2 in the last 8 meetings overall. I think 7.5 is being too kind to the pitchers Tuesday.

Take the OVER 7.5 (-115).

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Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (39-42) head to Petco Park Monday to start a 2-game  interleague series with the San Diego Padres (47-34) at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle is 7-3 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, which includes 3 consecutive series wins over the Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics.

San Diego prevented a 4-game sweep by the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 4-1 win Sunday, but is just 3-7 SU in the last 10.

The Padres beat the Mariners in last year’s season series 3-0 and had a plus-24 run differential in those meetings.

Mariners at Padres projected starters

RHP Chris Flexen vs. LHP Sean Manaea

Flexen is 4-8 with a 4.32 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 83 1/3 IP over 15 starts.

  • Last start: Won 9-3 Wednesday at home vs. the Orioles with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Padres: One start, a 16-1 loss in San Diego May 21 with 1 2/3 IP, 8 ER, 10 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 1 K.

Manaea is 3-3 with a 3.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 85 IP over 14 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in San Diego’s 7-6 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday with 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 7 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Mariners: 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA (21 IP, 5 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 1 HR and 10.3 K/9 in 3 starts.

Mariners at Padres odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:41 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mariners +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Padres -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-140) | Padres -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Mariners at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Padres 2

Money line

LEAN MARINERS (+155) only because their RL has more value.

However, Seattle’s lineup has been a lot more productive at the plate than the Padres (-190) recently. The Mariners outrank the Padres in several advanced hitting categories over the past two weeks such as WAR (2.5-0.6), wRC+ (117-84), wOBA (.324-.283) and ISO (.182-.122), per FanGraphs.

Also, I’d like to fade the one-way action headed toward San Diego since more than 80% of the action is on the Padres (according to Pregame.com) and we know 8 of 10 sports bettors don’t beat the House.

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Run line/Against the spread

RISK 1 unit on the MARINERS +1.5 (-140) instead of betting to win 1 unit since this is a pricey RL.

But, the Padres are just 10-20 RL as home favorites while the Mariners are 27-19 RL as underdogs and the presumed sharp side of the market is backing Seattle.

Nearly 70% of the cash is on the Mariners +1.5 (-140), but more than 80% of the bets placed are on the Padres -1.5 (+115), per Pregame.com. Typically, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than your average Joe.

If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the MARINERS +1.5 (-140) to earn a $71.43 profit instead of betting $140 to win $100.

Over/Under

BET only a half-unit on the UNDER 7.5 (-102) because this is a sharp number and we might get a better price by waiting closer to the 1st pitch.

That said, the Mariners are 18-26-2 O/U as underdogs and 4-11 O/U in Flexen’s 15 starts despite his underwhelming pitching stats.

Also, Seattle is 0-4 O/U in the last 4 games vs. teams with a winning record and 0-4-1 O/U in the last games vs. a left-handed starter.

Finally, the Padres are 12-17-1 O/U as home favorites and Petco Park is last in park factor — aka it’s the most pitch-friendly venue in the majors.

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Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (21-24) play the San Diego Padres (28-17) Saturday in Game 2 of their three-game set in Petco Park at 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego won its eighth consecutive Friday by drubbing Seattle in the first game of this series 16-1.

The Padres’ two through five hitters (RF Jurickson Profar, 2B Jake Cronenworth, SS Fernando Tatis Jr. and 1B Eric Hosmer) hit a combined 10-for-19 with two home runs and 12 RBIs.

Season series: Padres 1-0.

LHP Justus Sheffield gets his eighth start for the Mariners. Sheffield is 3-3 with a 4.62 ERA (39 IP, 20 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-3, in 6 IP with 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 2 K last Saturday vs. the Cleveland Indians.
  • Career vs. the Padres: 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER), 2 BB and 5 K in one start (last season).

LHP Ryan Weathers is on the mound for the Padres. Weathers is 2-1 with a 1.37 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.76 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 across four starts and five bullpen appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 0 K in San Diego’s 5-3 win vs. the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday.
  • Career vs. the Mariners: No appearances.

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Mariners at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Padres -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-125) | Padres -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Padres 8, Mariners 1

Money line (ML)

PASS because San Diego’s lineup has struggled vs. left-handed pitching thus far, but mainly the Padres (-200) is too expensive for an outright win.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the PADRES -1.5 (+105) for 1 unit because Friday’s 16-run outburst vs. the Mariners +1.5 (-125) could be a sign of things to come for San Diego’s lineup and the Padres own a sizable pitching advantage.

For instance, San Diego’s starter is a former No. 7 overall pick of the 2018 MLB draft and Weathers is expected to be on a pitch limit but could hand the ball off to RHP Dinelson Lamet who has got “top of the rotation” stuff.

Also, the Padres, on paper, have one of the best lineups in baseball, staggers hitters with different batting stances and can light up Sheffield who grades in the 30th percentile or lower in several advanced pitching metrics.

On top of that, San Diego’s bullpen is top-5 in the league across several advanced pitching categories, and Seattle’s lineup has the second-worst WAR in the majors.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS even though San Diego’s lineup is set up for success because it still has to prove it can hit left-handed pitching, and the presumed “sharp” money in the market is on the Under whereas the public is on the Over. I don’t have a feel either way.

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Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (21-23) visit the San Diego Padres (27-17) Friday at Petco Park for the first of their three-game set at 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego have won six straight—sweeping both the Colorado Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals—and is 9-1 in the last 10 games and 14-6 in the past 20.

Seattle were just swept in a three-game set with the Detroit Tigers Monday-Wednesday and is just 3-7 in the last 10 games.

RHP Chris Flexen is making his eighth start for the Mariners. Flexen is 4-1 with a 3.46 ERA (39 IP, 15 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 this season.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-3, in 5 2/3 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 0 K last Friday vs. the Cleveland Indians.
  • Career vs. the Padres: 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA (3 IP, 3 ER), 4 BB and 2 K in his only career start against San Diego (2017).

RHP Chris Paddack is the projected starter for the Padres. Paddack is 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 across seven starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K in San Diego’s 13-3 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday.
  • Career vs. the Mariners: 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA (18 IP, 6 ER), 0.78 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 over three starts.
    • Vs. Mariners on the current roster: 32 at-bats with a .188/.270/.313 slash line, 8/4 K/BB, 1 HR and 4 RBIs.

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Mariners at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Padres -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-115) | Padres -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Mariners 5, Padres 4

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the MARINERS (+170) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a quarter unit because Seattle is 6-1 in Flexen’s seven starts, and I’m low on Paddack because of his limited pitching arsenal.

I’m a sucker for Seattle’s First 5 Innings value since I like Flexen more than Paddack but am laying off the full-game upset because the Mariners’ bullpen is mediocre and the Padres’ relief unit is elite.

Also, Paddack predominantly uses two pitches (fastball and changeup), and  I’m thinking Seattle’s struggling lineup could bust its slump vs. the predictable Paddack.

It’s not like Paddack’s fastball is extraordinary either since he grades in the 25th percentile for fastball spin and 23rd percentile in chase rate.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the MARINERS +1.5 (-115) for a three-fourths unit because it’s a wiser play than Seattle outright.

Furthermore, it’s a tight window we are trying to fit this Seattle upset into considering San Diego is one of the hottest teams in the Majors.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a “lean” to the Over 7.5 (-115) because of the reduced juice, it’s a fade of the market, and these teams have a combined 9-5 O/U record when these starters are on the bump.

However, I’m somewhat banking on the Mariners getting to Paddack, and the Padres’ lineup is fully healthy and one of the best in the Majors. So I’m just going to stay away from the total.

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