Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (39-42) head to Petco Park Monday to start a 2-game  interleague series with the San Diego Padres (47-34) at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle is 7-3 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, which includes 3 consecutive series wins over the Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics.

San Diego prevented a 4-game sweep by the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 4-1 win Sunday, but is just 3-7 SU in the last 10.

The Padres beat the Mariners in last year’s season series 3-0 and had a plus-24 run differential in those meetings.

Mariners at Padres projected starters

RHP Chris Flexen vs. LHP Sean Manaea

Flexen is 4-8 with a 4.32 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 83 1/3 IP over 15 starts.

  • Last start: Won 9-3 Wednesday at home vs. the Orioles with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Padres: One start, a 16-1 loss in San Diego May 21 with 1 2/3 IP, 8 ER, 10 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 1 K.

Manaea is 3-3 with a 3.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 85 IP over 14 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in San Diego’s 7-6 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday with 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 7 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Mariners: 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA (21 IP, 5 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 1 HR and 10.3 K/9 in 3 starts.

Mariners at Padres odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:41 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mariners +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Padres -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-140) | Padres -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Mariners at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Padres 2

Money line

LEAN MARINERS (+155) only because their RL has more value.

However, Seattle’s lineup has been a lot more productive at the plate than the Padres (-190) recently. The Mariners outrank the Padres in several advanced hitting categories over the past two weeks such as WAR (2.5-0.6), wRC+ (117-84), wOBA (.324-.283) and ISO (.182-.122), per FanGraphs.

Also, I’d like to fade the one-way action headed toward San Diego since more than 80% of the action is on the Padres (according to Pregame.com) and we know 8 of 10 sports bettors don’t beat the House.

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Run line/Against the spread

RISK 1 unit on the MARINERS +1.5 (-140) instead of betting to win 1 unit since this is a pricey RL.

But, the Padres are just 10-20 RL as home favorites while the Mariners are 27-19 RL as underdogs and the presumed sharp side of the market is backing Seattle.

Nearly 70% of the cash is on the Mariners +1.5 (-140), but more than 80% of the bets placed are on the Padres -1.5 (+115), per Pregame.com. Typically, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than your average Joe.

If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the MARINERS +1.5 (-140) to earn a $71.43 profit instead of betting $140 to win $100.

Over/Under

BET only a half-unit on the UNDER 7.5 (-102) because this is a sharp number and we might get a better price by waiting closer to the 1st pitch.

That said, the Mariners are 18-26-2 O/U as underdogs and 4-11 O/U in Flexen’s 15 starts despite his underwhelming pitching stats.

Also, Seattle is 0-4 O/U in the last 4 games vs. teams with a winning record and 0-4-1 O/U in the last games vs. a left-handed starter.

Finally, the Padres are 12-17-1 O/U as home favorites and Petco Park is last in park factor — aka it’s the most pitch-friendly venue in the majors.

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