The Toronto Maple Leafs (31-20-8) take a quick trip across the border to play the Atlantic Division-rival Buffalo Sabres (26-24-8), in the KeyBank Center at 7 p.m. ET. We analyze the Maple Leafs-Sabres odds and lines, while providing NHL betting tips around this matchup.
Maple Leafs at Sabres: Projected starting goalies
Frederik Andersen vs. Jonas Johansson
Anderson lost in his last start against the Dallas Stars at home, saving just 16 of 19 shots. His record is now 24-10-6 with a .909 save percentage and 2.88 goals against average.
Johansson is making just his third start in his career as he was called up after backup goaltender Linus Ullmark was sidelined with an injury. This is back-to-back starts for Johansson who’s lost both of his starts and is 0-1-1 with a .899 SV% and 2.78 GAA.
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Maple Leafs at Sabres: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Sabres 4, Leafs 3
Moneyline (ML)
While the Maples Leafs are seeded eighth in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt, and Buffalo is 11 points behind the second wild card team, this is a fierce rivalry that the Sabres will get up for. Toronto is 7-1 in the last eight tilts against Buffalo, but the Leafs played on Saturday night and Toronto is 2-6-3 in the second game of back-to-backs. One of those victories did come in the second of a home and away back-to-back against Buffalo. The difference in this game is that the Sabres didn’t play the night before and are fresher than the Leafs. Expect the Sabres to hold down home ice and bet BUFFALO +125.
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
It’d be wise to take BUFFALO +1.5 (-209) as insurance for our moneyline wager. Buffalo is 6-1 ATS over the previous seven games. Also, the Sabres are 27-12 as 1.5-goal dogs and the Leafs are 19-30 against the 1.5-goal puck line this season.
Over/Under (O/U)
The matchup to watch is first-line centers Sabres’ Jack Eichel vs. Leafs’ Auston Matthews. Buffalo’s captain has 22 points in 16 career games against the Leafs. Matthews scored two goals in their first meeting this season, but has only tallied one assist in the next two games. Eichel will continue his tear against Toronto, and Matthews will light the lamp in Buffalo against a rookie goalie.
The Over/Under Leafs-Sabres trends look good for the Over too. The Over is 18-7-3 in the last 28 meetings. Bookmakers have adjusted — setting their totals at 6.5 for the past six meetings — and the Over is 4-2 in those games. OVER 6.5 (+120) is the play.
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