In the 3rd round of FA Cup action, Manchester City battles Chelsea with kickoff from Etihad Stadium in Manchester set for 11:30 a.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we preview Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Manchester City vs. Chelsea odds, and make our best EPL bets, picks and predictions.
Manchester City sits 2nd in the EPL and played Chelsea on the road Thursday in their 2nd meeting this season. They won that battle 1-0 with 2.1 expected goals which compared favorably to Chelsea’s 0.4 expected goals. City has scored 45 goals and allowed 16 in 17 league games this season. They are led by F Erling Halland, who has 21 of those 45 goals.
Chelsea will hobble into this game with F Raheem Sterling and F Christian Pulisic both doubtful. Key D Reece James and M N’Golo Kante have both been ruled out. Chelsea has struggled immensely on offense this season, scoring just 20 goals in 17 matches. They have allowed just 19, so their defense has stayed among the league’s best. Sterling and F Kai Havertz lead the team with 4 goals apiece.
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Manchester City vs. Chelsea odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Manchester City -290 (bet $290 to win $100) | Chelsea +700 (bet $100 to win $700) | Draw +400
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -155 | U: +115)
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Manchester City vs. Chelsea picks and predictions
Prediction
Manchester City 2, Chelsea 0
Moneyline (ML)
PASS.
City is the better side, and with Chelsea starting 3 defenders on Thursday that were over 30 years old, they may have some tired legs taking the pitch in this battle.
Chelsea’s form as of late has also not been ideal, losing 4 of their last 6 games, 2 of which were to City.
Chelsea hasn’t shown enough attacking prowess to suggest they’ll get on the board, and with Haaland just 22 and spry, I expect the City attack, which has the most goals in the EPL, to continue thriving.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 2.5 (+115).
While Chelsea can’t score consistently, they can defend at a high level, allowing just 1.12 goals per game in league play. They have allowed just 1 multi-goal game in their last 7, a 2-0 loss to City.
They have gone Under this total in all 7 and have not scored in 4 of them. They have under 1 expected goal in 4 of their last 5 as well (excluding Nov. 9 vs. City as they weren’t tracked).
City has gone Under this in both games against Chelsea and in their last 2 league matches. They have scored more than 1 goal in 2 of their last 5, so the typical dominant City attack hasn’t been as lethal.
Couple Chelsea’s defense, lacking offense and the recent history between these clubs, and back the UNDER 2.5 (+115).
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