This week’s Sony Open in Hawaii sees the PGA Tour’s first full-field event since the RSM Classic in late November. The 7,044-yard, par-70 Waialae Country Club hosts the tournament yet again in Honolulu, Hawaii.
The key stats for this week are:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Bogey Avoidance
- Good Drives Gained
- Eagles Gained
- Strokes Gained: Par 4s
My model at Fantasy National is set to the most recent 36 rounds for each golfer in the field played on par-70 courses under 7,200 yards in length and featuring Bermuda grass greens.
Sony Open – Tier 1
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 8:45 a.m. ET.
Webb Simpson (+1200)
Simpson leads my stat model and is the best in the field in both SG: Approach and SG: Par 4s. He’s third in the field with an Official World Golf Ranking of No. 12, and he shares the second-best odds with Patrick Reed. The five-time PGA Tour champ didn’t play here last year, but he was T-4 in 2018 and T-13 each of the three previous three years.
Marc Leishman (+4500)
Leishman tied for third here a year ago, and he hasn’t finished worse than T-47 in any of his last five tries. He ranks seventh in the field by the OWGR measure, but he’s 13th by the odds at BetMGM. He’s a good value pick following last year’s top finish and a solo third at the Safeway Open in September early in his 2019-20 campaign.
Sony Open – Tier 2
J.T. Poston (+5000)
Poston is coming off a T-11 finish in the 30-man field at last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions. He has missed just one cut in nine events since vaulting into the top 100 of the OWGR with his first career win at last season’s Wyndham Championship. He leads the field in Bogey Avoidance, and he ranks seventh in Good Drives Gained and fourth in SG: Par 4s.
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Rory Sabbatini (+8000)
Sabbatini is one of many in the field returning to competitive play for the first time since the RSM Classic. He’s coming off a 2019 calendar year in which he had six top 10s against just four missed cuts for his most successful season since his last PGA Tour win in 2011 at The Honda Classic. This is a similarly short venue, and he’s made the cut in four of his last five appearances with a T-6 result in 2015.
Sony Open – Longshots
Luke List (+15000)
List didn’t play this event last year following a missed cut in 2018, but he did finish T-13 in 2017. He enters the week ranked 145th in the world following three missed cuts to start his 2019-20 season, but he did have two runners-up last year. He also finished second at the 2018 Honda Classic amid a stronger field.
Mackenzie Hughes (+25000)
Hughes isn’t much of a course fit (49th in Eagles Gained and 57th in SG: Approach), but this number is far too high for a former PGA Tour champ. A $1 sprinkle at these odds returns a profit of $250.
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