The Crimson Tide still have a ridiculously high chance to make the playoff.
If you thought Alabama’s Week 11 loss to LSU on Saturday would severely damage the Crimson Tide’s chance of making the College Football Playoff this year, we have some bad news.
Although it did take a sizable hit, Alabama still has a 40 percent chance to make the playoff but only a nine percent chance to win it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. Those numbers plunged from last week, when the team had a 72 and 22 percent chance, respectively, but the Crimson Tide are still No. 4 on this list.
Unlike the weekly College Football Playoff rankings, ESPN’s Playoff Predictor is an algorithm that considers factors like strength of schedule, losses, eventual conference championships, the Football Power Index and the selection committee’s past behavior to determine the top teams’ playoff chances. That last one seems like it’s having a notably impact on these numbers because Alabama has been invited to the playoff previously without winning the SEC championship game, which it won’t play in this year thanks to LSU.
These numbers are assuming the Crimson Tide win out just like they’re expected to. The FPI gives them a 56.4 percent chance to win out as they close the regular season with games against Mississippi State, Western Carolina and Auburn. Alabama does not have a win against a currently ranked team, but with a 64.8 percent chance to beat Auburn at the end of the month, the Playoff Predictor anticipates a win there being enough for a strong playoff push.
With that key win over Alabama, LSU’s chances have obviously skyrocketed. The Tigers’ chance to make the playoff is up to 87 percent from 56 percent last week, while their title chance increased to 17 percent from 10 percent. Still seems a little low, right? That’s probably because the Playoff Predictor is hugely favoring Ohio State.
The Buckeyes still have the best chance to do everything. Their shot to make the playoff keeps getting closer and closer to 100 percent and is up to 89 percent from 85 last week. Their chance to win the national championship is also up four points to 40 percent this week. With Penn State’s loss to Minnesota this week, the Nittany Lions are clearly beatable, so Ohio State is favored to beat them in a couple weeks (and win the Big Ten) even more now.
And don’t forget about Clemson. The defending national champs are No. 3 with an 82 percent chance to make the playoff and a 23 percent chance to win it all again — a number second to only Ohio State. They had a 74 percent chance to make the playoff and a 19 percent chance to have back-to-back titles following Week 10. The Tigers have a significantly lower strength of schedule than the other teams in the top six, but they’re also massively favored to win out and finish another season undefeated.
As the regular season winds down, there’s almost no room for error for these top-4 teams (or room for another one for Alabama) because Oregon and Georgia are just waiting to make a move if they keep winning. Here’s a look at ESPN’s Playoff Predictor list going into Week 12.
1. Ohio State (9-0)
Playoff: 89 percent
Win championship: 40 percent
2. LSU (9-0)
Playoff: 87 percent
Win championship: 17 percent
3. Clemson (10-0)
Playoff: 82 percent
Win championship: 23 percent
4. Alabama (8-1)
Playoff: 40 percent
Win championship: 9 percent
5. Oregon (8-1)
Playoff: 32 percent
Win championship: 3 percent
6. Georgia (8-1)
Playoff: 25 percent
Win championship: 3 percent
7. Oklahoma (8-1)
Playoff: 11 percent
Win championship: 1 percent
8. Penn State (8-1)
Playoff: 11 percent
Win championship: 2 percent
9. Utah (8-1)
Playoff: 7 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent
10. Auburn (7-2)
Playoff: 5 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent
11. Baylor (9-0)
Playoff: 5 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent
12. Minnesota (9-0)
Playoff: 4 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent
13. Florida (7-2)
Playoff: 2 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent
The remaining teams on the Playoff Predictor list, including Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Cincinnati and Michigan, all have a less than one percent chance to make the playoff. See the full list here.
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