Numbers and notes on the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions playoff matchup
Since coming back from injury and the bye week, Matthew Stafford has been playing different football for the Rams. He’s gone 160-of-243 (65.8%) for 1895 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. During that span, the Rams have gone 6-1 (five wins vs. non-playoff teams) and appear to be as dangerous as ever with Cooper Kupp healthy, Kyren Williams steaming ahead and Puka Nucua looking like the potential Offensive Rookie of the Year.
In addition to that, Stafford has done a good job building rapport with players such as Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell. Robinson is noteworthy because he’s essentially replaced Atwell as the third receiver in the offense and has 26 receptions for 371 yards and four touchdowns since Week 9 against the Packers.
Stafford also has Tyler Higbee, who’s been consistent. That’s important to note because the Rams run 11 personnel (one running back and one tight end) more than anyone in the league (95% of the time).
Defensively, the Rams are obviously led by defensive tackle Aaron Donald. No matter the situation, he can make a play at any time. This season, Donald has 53 tackles with eight sacks and 16 tackles for loss (tied for 10th-most in the NFL). But it’s no longer a one-man show with the Rams defense. They’ve seen some strong contributions from players such as safety Jordan Fuller and linebacker Ernest Jones.
Jones has 145 tackles this season, and Fuller is second on the team with 94 tackles. Fuller is tied for the team-high with three interceptions this season. Adding to that, the Rams are seeing strong contributions from rookie defenders such as Byron Young and Kobe Turner. Young has eight sacks this season, and Turner has nine.
But the Rams only have a 32% pressure rate, and that ranks them 29th in the NFL. Much of that is due to them only having three-man and four-man rushes. They have three-man pressures 9% of the time (ranked sixth in the NFL) and they have four-man pressures 63% of the time (ranked 25th in the NFL).
When looking at the Rams defense, they essentially run their dime defense (17% of the time, ranking ninth in the NFL) or their base defense (26% of the time, ranking ninth in the NFL). Against the pass, you will see man coverage from the Rams, but they’re essentially a zone defense with 63% of their coverage being defended that way (ranked 11th in the NFL).
Fortunately for Detroit, the Lions have quarterback Jared Goff and he’s been successful against zone coverage. Going into the Week 17 game against the Cowboys, Goff had completed 71.7% of his passes against zone and he had almost 2,800 passing yards against it. The only downside is that he’s thrown 10 interceptions against zone this season. But the last time the Lions faced a team that primarily ran a zone defense was against the Broncos, and we all saw how that turned out for Detroit.
As the Lions await to see the availability of tight end Sam LaPorta for their playoff game, all eyes will be on their defense. Over their last three games, the defense has given up 1,152 passing yards (384.0 yards per game) but they’re only allowing 20.25 points per game during that span.
Following the “bend but don’t break” mantra, this Lions defense has seven interceptions over the last three games. If they can find ways to bring Stafford down or force him into some tougher throws, the game could go well for the Lions and their defense.
Additionally, the Lions still have one of the best run defenses in the league. Their 88.8 rushing yards allowed per game is second-best in the NFL this season. Over their last four games, the Lions have only allowed 62.5 rushing yards per game. The Rams have found plenty of success on the ground with an average of 120.3 rushing yards per game. If the Lions can find ways to shut the run down like they have this season, the Rams offense could become one-dimensional.
Without question, this will be one of the most anticipated games in the history of the Lions franchise. On paper the matchup favors Detroit, but as we know, this game isn’t played on paper. Regardless of injuries and numbers, the Lions will need to bring their A-game for their historic season to continue.
*All data was pulled by Sports Info Solutions (SIS)*
