Tag: 2020 NFL Playoffs

Ravens vs. Bills: 6 keys to victory in the NFL playoffs

The Baltimore Ravens need to ensure they do these six things against the Buffalo Bills and they’ll head to the AFC Championship Game.

For the Baltimore Ravens, facing the Buffalo Bills this weekend may be the toughest challenge of the season. Rightfully so given that the winner of this matchup advances to the AFC Championship Game.

Both teams feature explosive offenses, suffocating defenses, and quarterbacks who can beat you with their arms and their legs. If the snow starts falling, the Ravens may have the upper hand, relying mainly on their ground game while the Bills do their damage mostly through the air. However, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen seems to be immune to cold weather, while Lamar Jackson has never played football in the snow.

We could analyze the similarities and differences of these teams all day, but for now, let’s take a look at what the Ravens can do to ensure they continue their path to Super Bowl LV.

The Browns’ running game gives them a (small) chance to take down the Chiefs

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have an incredibly favorable matchup against the Chiefs.

The Browns face an uphill challenge in their quest to topple the Chiefs this weekend in the Divisional Round. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense will obviously give the Browns a tough test and it’s more than reasonable to expect the Chiefs to win this game. The Browns are 10-point underdogs for a reason.

However, Browns fans shouldn’t enter this game with a complete sense of doom and gloom. An upset will be difficult, but Cleveland does have one major advantage over Kansas City in this game: their ability to run the ball.

Everything about the Browns run game is optimized for destruction. Head coach Kevin Stefanski and offensive line coach Bill Callahan have done a masterful job constructing one of the best running games in the league. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Browns ranked fifth in the NFL in Points Earned (45.9) and seventh in yards per carry (4.7).

While the coaching staff has done a great job piecing the run game together, the players are the ones that drive the bus — and the Browns have a group of players that can pick up chunks of yards on the ground with ease. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are easily the best running back duo in the NFL and they have a road-grading offensive line.

Chubb and Hunt tortured defenses all season long. The Browns averaged 2.8 yards after contact according to Sports Info Solutions, ranking second in the NFL.

The Browns are known for their ability to run outside zone, running the seventh most stretch and off-tackle runs (178) according to Sports Info Solutions, but they can do a little bit of everything. That was on full display during their blowout Wild Card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

They were able to run weak zone.

The Browns ran Power well, too.

They even hit their Duo runs effectively.

And they did all this against a well-regarded Steelers defense: 127 team rushing yards and two touchdowns on one of the better fronts in the league. The Steelers ranked 13th in expected points added per rushing play (-0.093) this season, according to Ben Baldwin of the Athletic.

The Chiefs don’t have a respectable rushing defense. In fact they, have one of the worst rushing defenses in the entire league. They ranked 27th in expected points added per rushing play (0.011) on defense this year. This is the weak spot that the Browns can and should be able to exploit.

This isn’t to say that the Browns will beat the Chiefs if Chubb and Hunt go off, but this is a favorable matchup that they can use to close the gap on gameday. The Browns have the talent on the offensive line to keep defensive tackle Chris Jones from wrecking their run game. Wyatt Teller played like an elite guard this season for the Browns and the rest of the offensive line has thrived under their first season with Callahan. Second team All-Pro guard Joel Bitonio is expected to return, too, after missing the Wild Card game due to COVID.

If the Browns are going to do the unthinkable and beat the Chiefs, it’s going to take a throwback, rugged approach. Run the ball effectively and often to grind out points — and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible.

Matt Nagy’s inexcusable end to first half vs. Saints

If ever there was a time to be liberal in playcalling this was then.  What followed was instead as appalling as anything that has happened in now three completed seasons under Matt Nagy’s watch

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When you enter NFL Wild Card Weekend as the biggest underdog on the board, you’ve essentially got nothing to lose.

That was the Chicago Bears on Sunday when they suited up to take on the seconded-seeded New Orleans Saints in the Louisiana Superdome.

Their head coach however treated the end of the first half as if the Bears were the ones with everything to lose.

Trailing 7-3 with 1:49 remaining before halftime, the Bears got the ball back at their own 23-yard line, stocked with two of their three timeouts, and also set to get the ball to start the second half.

If ever there was a time to be liberal in playcalling it was then.  What followed was instead as appalling as anything that has occurred with the Bears in now three completed seasons under Matt Nagy’s watch:

  • 1st and 10 from own 24 (1:49):  5 yard run by David Montgomery
    Alright, I get if you’re trying to catch the defense napping that a run can do just that, but if you actually are playing to win a pass will certainly be coming next, even with the Saints calling their final timeout.
  • 2nd and 5 from own 29 (1:42): 3 yard run by Montgomery
    If one of these first two plays is a run and one is a pass that’s one story, but both being runs is a tough sell at any time, but especially considering the circumstances.
  • 3rd and 2 from own 32 (1:00): No gain on run by Ryan Nall
    1977 called and wants it’s offense back. Seriously, this is not the game for Ryan Nall to be getting touches, but it’s especially not the situation for him having the ball in his hands. If you’re ever curious what coaching scared looks like, simply go back to the end of this half.

The offense didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard to that point, having only scored three points against the mighty Saints defense, but wouldn’t a logical person think that’s all the more reason for you to take a chance?

Considering one touchdown is going to be hard enough to come by wouldn’t maximizing your chances make sense?

Instead, it was a series of play calls that likely crushed the little confidence the Bears offense had at that point and it’s no surprise to me you saw them come out and do nothing as a unit in the second half.

It’s hard enough against a great defense, but it’s even that much more difficult when your own head coach curls up in the fetal position on the sideline, just before halftime.

Ravens vs. Titans wild-card playoffs: QB Lamar Jackson is our Player of the Game

With his first win in the playoffs, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is our Player of the Game against the Tennessee Titans

Let’s be fair, it took a full-team effort to lift the Baltimore Ravens over the Tennessee Titans in the wild-card playoffs, but it’s awfully hard to slight the lifeblood of this team, quarterback Lamar Jackson. With his first playoff win under his belt, Jackson is deserving of our Player of the Game award this week.

While it took the Ravens much of the first half to get into a rhythm offensively (you could even argue that they never truly found their stride), Jackson’s ability to conjure big plays out of the cold Nashville air ultimately turned the tide in this game. Though the Titans managed to keep Baltimore’s elite rushing attack in relative check through the afternoon, Jackson still found room to run, leading the charge with 136 yards on the ground and what was probably the most electric touchdown in these playoffs so far. His odds-defying 48-yard scoring scramble late in the second quarter reiterated just how lethal the young quarterback can be when plays break down and reveal even the slimmest open field.

Aside from an early interception, Jackson also remained relatively efficient through the air. He finished completing 17-of-24 (70.8%) passes for 179 passing yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. And even with those modest passing numbers, it still felt like the Ravens threw the ball more than they needed to at times.

Either way, Jackson finally has a planet-sized weight off his shoulders. He’s officially earned his first playoff victory, which hopefully vaults him into even more success and hopefully — as promised — a Super Bowl.

Among the other Ravens we considered for this honor were wide receiver Marquise Brown, outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, and really anyone on Baltimore’s defensive line who helped limit Titan’s running back Derrick Henry to an abysmal 40 rushing yards on 18 attempts. Brown had a top performance of his own, much to the delight of coaches and fans alike, finishing the day with over 100 yards receiving and a pair of solid rushing attempts. The Ravens will need more of that from him if they plan on continuing their playoff run.

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Ravens vs. Titans: 7 keys to victory

The Baltimore Ravens need to do a few things better than they did in the regular season to beat the Titans and advance in the NFL playoffs

Well, here we are again. As if 2020 couldn’t have sparked enough deja-vu moments with endless Groundhog Day-like routines, we’re awarded with yet another one. The Baltimore Ravens will take on the Tennessee Titans in the playoffs.

But are things actually different this time around? Is 2021 a time for change and surprises we’re actually looking forward to?

Baltimore is arguably one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now. The Ravens are riding a five-game winning streak in which the offense has found its footing and the defense has started to get healthier. Baltimore appears to be on a resolute mission — not just an unexpected tear — to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Yet once again, the Titans stand in their way. Can the Ravens learn from last year’s mistakes and move past this game, earning their first playoff win in the Lamar Jackson era? Let’s take a look at our keys to making that result happen.

Anatomy of a wild-card win: Buccaneers’ defense must return to the Aaron Rodgers plan

If the Buccaneers want to advance in the postseason, they’d better knock off the static fronts and spot-drop coverage.

Early this season, while the Buccaneers’ offense was still trying to figure out what it was, Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Todd Bowles and his staff put together one of the best game plans I’ve ever seen. Against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Week 6, the Bucs shook off an early 10-0 deficit to torment Rodgers as Rodgers has never been tormented before. Rodgers, who came into the game with 13 touchdowns, no interceptions, and just three sacks, completed 16 of 35 passes for 160 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions, five sacks, and a quarterback rating of 35.4 — the third-worst of his career. After two early scoring drives, that defense settled in, and the Packers were given nothing the rest of the game.

Bowles dialed up a master class in every facet of defensive scheme. First, the Bucs ran all kinds of pre-snap front movement, altering and confusing Green Bay’s protection rules.

Cornerback Jamel Dean’s 33-yard pick-six with 12:50 left in the first half was brought about in part because of pressure games. Notice that as Rodgers heads to the center, just one defender — left end Jason Pierre-Paul — has his hand down. Right before the snap, Ndamukong Suh puts his hand down at nose tackle. So, is this a two-man front with everyone else in coverage? There are five defenders at or near the line of scrimmage pre-snap. Who’s coming, and who’s backing out? We have no idea. Neither does Rodgers.

In the end, Pierre-Paul, Suh, and right end Shaquil Barrett rushed. The right-side blitz look was a ruse, as safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and linebacker Lavonte David dropped into coverage, and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting blitzed from the other side. So, it was a four-man pressure, but in a very different way than Rodgers may have expected.

Creative blitzes were also a staple. This sack of Rodgers with 3:41 left in the first half comes out of a really interesting front and blitz package. It’s a bear front concept with linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David as the edge defenders, and Shaquil Barrett, who’s normally an edge-rusher, working in the middle linebacker spot.

At the snap, both White and David take off for the quarterback. Left tackle David Bakhtiari and left guard Elgton Jenkins double right defensive end Ndamukong Suh, running back Jamaal Williams whiffs on the cross-block of David, and David gets to Rodgers just before Barrett can. After the play, Rodgers can be seen yelling at everyone unfortunate enough to be in his general vicinity.

The Bucs didn’t just get to Rodgers with blitzes and stunts — at times, they presented impossible combinations of four-man pressure and back-seven overage that both frustrated Rodgers in his reads, and forced him to make out-of-structure movements that put him in harm’s way. Jamel Dean’s pick-six was one. This Ndamukong Suh sack near the end of the first half was another. Tampa Bay is playing two-deep, and they’re also dropping both David and White into hook/curl responsibilities at the seam and at the numbers.

This has Rodgers moving to his right with uncertain reads, and all Suh has to do is roll off the protection, and go pick up the prize.

I’ve been writing about Bowles’ defenses since 2013 when he was now-Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians’ defensive coordinator in Arizona, and at their best, the characteristics are consistent: Multiple defensive fronts to confuse protection rules, linebackers flowing to the ball from different gaps and with different responsibilities, and coverage specifically tied to pressure.

On the other hand…

When the Buccaneers stick with static fronts and spot-drop coverages, they simply don’t have the horses to make that work on a consistent basis. And they do this too often. That’s not a knock on Tampa Bay’s defensive players — it could be argued that in today’s NFL, any defense relying on static fronts and spot-drop coverages is going to get waxed at some point. Nonetheless, it’s the Bucs’ defense we’re talking about here, so here are a few examples of what happens when Bowles dials it back.

In Week 4 against the Chargers, Bowles’ defense allowed two huge passing touchdowns to Justin Herbert, who was in his third game as an NFL starting quarterback. There was this 53-yard bomb to receiver Tyron Johnson, who beat two-deep coverage downfield as Herbert calmly navigated a four-man rush, with end Jason Pierre-Paul dropping into coverage. The ball is slightly underthrown to match Johnson in stride, but Johnson is still able to beat safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jordan Whitehead by several steps.

And there was this 72-yard touchdown pass to Jalen Guyton, in which the Buccaneers sent a seven-man blitz, leaving cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting one-on-one downfield. Winfield and Carlton Davis are covering Keenan Allen underneath, and there’s no real protection against the deep shot, because Herbert handles the blitz so well. As we’ve learned through Herbert’s rookie season, two ways to ensure a very bad result is to blitz him, and to play man coverage against him. This was one of the first clarion calls in that regard.

If you have elite island cornerbacks, you can do this stuff, though you probably shouldn’t. Tampa Bay’s cornerbacks are good players who work well in a system, and these examples of the system don’t end in ways that Bowles would find favorable.

Against the Chiefs in a 27-24 Week 12 loss, the Bucs were shredded by Patrick Mahomes to the tune of 462 passing yards and three touchdowns in what was the nadir for the defense this season. Tyreek Hill caught all three of those touchdown passes, and on each, he was able to beat the daylights out of single coverage — no deep safety help! — and Mahomes found those matchups quite appetizing. Cornerback Carlton Davis, who was covering on all three, is a good player, but what do you THINK is going to happen on plays like this?

“We’ve got to cover tighter and we’ve got to get home faster,” Arians said after the Chiefs game. “We can’t let a guy in man coverage have 3.7, [or] 3.8 seconds to throw a ball – it’s got to come out in three or less. We can cover for 10 to 12 yards, but we can’t give them that much time. Again, Patrick [Mahomes] is an unbelievable guy… we don’t see him every week, but I think tighter coverage…  when we’re playing man, we have to get home.”

Well, that’s part of the problem. The larger part of the problem is that this defense doesn’t always do what it does best, and when it doesn’t, the results are quite predictable.

Not that the Washington Football Team and Alex Smith present the same kind of vertical threat — quite the opposite — but if there’s to be a chance for this team to become the first in NFL history to host the Super Bowl in its home stadium, Bowles and his crew had better clean things up and return to the Aaron Rodgers plan.

After all, they may see Rodgers again in the postseason — and it’d be in Green Bay in January this time.

‘We’re not playing Dwayne Haskins:’ Bruce Arians says Bucs won’t overlook WFT with Alex Smith at QB

Bruce Arians delivered a shot at former Washington QB Dwayne Haskins, noting that his team won’t overlook a matchup against Alex Smith.

A lot has been made this past week of the history of underdogs in the first round of the playoffs, especially when they enter the postseason with a losing record. We’ve talked about it a lot on this site, making note that one of the more memorable upsets from a below-.500 team in the wild-card round came the last time Ron Rivera and Bruce Arians met in the playoffs.

One of the main reasons that these upsets happen is because the better team is often caught looking into the future, undervaluing their opponent, and not giving the round 1 game the attention it deserves. According to Arians, that won’t happen this week, simply because of who is playing QB in Washington, and more specifically, who is not playing QB.

Washington may be 7-9 on the season, but considering the fact that they went 5-2 over their last seven games with only one loss coming with Alex Smith under center causes that overall record to be thrown out the window. With Dwayne Haskins at the helm, Washington started the season with a 1-3 record, and then things didn’t get much better with Kyle Allen taking snaps either. However, the dust started to settle once Smith took the reigns, and the average offensive performances, mixed with a dominant defense, made Washington a viable threat.

Who knows if they will be good enough to stop the red-hot Bucs on Saturday, but we know at least that Tom Brady and his team won’t be looking to the divisional round quite yet.

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Anatomy of a wild-card win: Scheming Mitchell Trubisky for pseudo-greatness

The Bears will have to help Mitchell Trubisky succeed against the Saints’ top-level defense. Here’s how Matt Nagy and Bill Lazor can do it.

When the Bears take on the Saints on Sunday afternoon, they’ll have a couple of obvious issues to deal with. First is a Chicago defense that has fallen right off the map in the second half of the season, dropping from third to 28th in defensive passing DVOA from Week 10 to now. The run defense has been fairly stable, dropping from sixth to eighth in that time, so the overall drop from fourth to 21st in defensive DVOA has just about everything to do with a pass defense very much in flux. That might be okay against a Saints team that has Drew Brees bouncing errant passes off the helmets of enemy linebackers, but…

…the other obvious issue is whether quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, fresh off a five-game stint as the starter in which he completed 70.1% of his passes for 1,495 yards, 7.1 yards per attempt, 10 touchdowns, five interceptions and a passer rating of 96.0, can keep it up. It’s the best stretch of his career since the first half of a 2018 season in which he made the Pro Bowl (no, really), but given the arc of Trubisky’s career, you can’t be blamed for wondering if it’ll all go away — especially against a Saints defense that ranks first against the pass in DVOA since Week 10. Converging positive arcs to be sure, so how can head coach Matt Nagy and offensive coordinator Bill Lazor keep Trubisky consistent?

There have been three elements to Trubisky’s relative rebirth: Boot-action, tempo no-huddle, and the RPO game. Each element presents designed, early in the down reads for Trubisky, allowing him to make completions without thinking too much. Boot-action, in which Trubisky fakes to the back and then rolls out of the pocket, does two things: The fake sucks linebackers and safeties in, and the rollout cuts the field in half, simplifying reads. It also presents the opportunity for Chicago’s receivers to gain an advantage from scramble routes that may deviate from the original plan.

In boot-action this season, per Sports Info Solutions, Trubisky has completed 32 of 49 passes for 301 yards, 109 air yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 106.3.

“It’s been key — that’s obvious,” Nagy said of the moving pocket in mid-December, per John Potash of the Chicago Sun-Times. “When you have somebody like Mitchell that can extend plays with his legs — and with the background that I came from in Kansas City and some of the things we did, there wasn’t as much of that. It takes some time. It doesn’t just happen overnight.”

However long it took, it’s working now. This 53-yard pass from Trubisky to receiver Darnell Mooney against the Packers in Week 17 shows the value of boot-action in Chicago’s offense with this particular quarterback. When Allen Robinson motions inside pre-snap, taking safety Ibraheim Campbell with him, that leaves a one-on-one matchup between Mooney (No. 11) and cornerback Kevin King (No. 20), with safety Darnell Savage (No. 26) trailing overhead. Mooney does a great job of influencing King to the boundary before cutting back to the seam, and Trubisky makes a bang-on throw to Mooney over Savage’s head.

This eight-yard touchdown pass to Mooney in Week 15 against the Vikings is another example. Pre-snap motion indicates zone coverage, Trubisky fakes to running back David Montgomery, everybody takes the cheese, the tight end crosser further complicates the picture, and Mooney is wide open to the left side. Note that this is a quick pass — that crosser is more for coverage disruption than anything else. Trubisky is just getting the ball out in time because linebacker Eric Wilson is rushing unblocked off the edge, and that’s all Trubisky needs to do. Make it simple, make it work.

No-huddle has also been a big deal in Trubisky’s turnaround — since Week 12, he’s completed 20 of 33 passes for 224 yards, and 112 air yards without a huddle to break things up.

“You’ve just got to get the ball to your playmakers in space and stretch the field horizontally and vertically, but also keeping the defense off-balance, and I think the change in tempo really helps this offense,” Trubisky said in mid-December. “I think moving the pocket really helps me and helps our offensive line and also helps create run lanes.”

There are those two things, and there’s also the RPO game, which once again gives Trubisky the quick read off the snap. Trubisky has completed 13 of 15 passes for 142 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions this season on RPO throws.

“So these are things I’m very comfortable with, things I’ve been asking for, and I think everyone’s buying into it, and I think we’re starting to build an identity,” Trubisky concluded. “We just need to keep getting better and better. When we play 11 guys as one and we’re playing as a unity and we’re executing, that’s when the good plays will continue to happen.”

Well, perhaps. This season, the Saints have allowed 19 completions in 30 no-huddle attempts for 219 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and an NFL-low opponent QBR of 57.5. What we also know is that the Saints have played more man coverage than any other team, and they’re not always great at it. New Orleans has lined up in Cover-0, Cover-1, or 2-Man on 258 snaps, allowing 149 completions for 1,821 yards, 19 touchdowns, and four interceptions. The touchdowns in man coverage are skewed as many of them come in the red zone, but there are clues there, as well.

Niek Foles was the Bears’ quarterback in Week 8 when Chicago lost a close 26-23 game to the Saints, but this particular man-beater for a three-yard Mooney touchdown is something Nagy and Lazor might want to revisit all over the field. The Saints will man up and plaster through boot-action, making those throws more difficult, and they can disrupt the RPO game, but watch on this play how discombobulated they are against the Bears’ bunch-right formation.

So, that’s the recipe. Give Trubisky bite-size reads with the potential for chunk plays, work no-huddle judiciously, run boot and look for the busted openings, and give the Saints all the motion, crossers, and congested receiver formations they can handle. That won’t turn Trubisky into a top-10 quarterback — I think we’re past that possibility — but in the postseason, if you can repeat what works effectively and efficiently, you just never know how far you can go.

The All-22: How every wild-card team can advance to the divisional round

Recently, we outlined the one (potentially) fatal flaw for every AFC team and every NFC team in the wild-card round, indicating the ways in which all 14 teams in the first round of the playoffs could find themselves on the outside looking in. …

Recently, we outlined the one (potentially) fatal flaw for every AFC team and every NFC team in the wild-card round, indicating the ways in which all 14 teams in the first round of the playoffs could find themselves on the outside looking in.

Conversely, Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield are putting together advanced tape and stat pieces on how every wild-card team can advance to the division round if they accomplish that One Big Thing.

So here, in one handy hub, is how every team can take their game to a new level. We’ll be publishing articles for every team as soon as possible, so stay tuned!