Numbers and notes on the Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions playoff matchup

Numbers and notes on the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions playoff matchup

Since coming back from injury and the bye week, Matthew Stafford has been playing different football for the Rams. He’s gone 160-of-243 (65.8%) for 1895 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. During that span, the Rams have gone 6-1 (five wins vs. non-playoff teams) and appear to be as dangerous as ever with Cooper Kupp healthy, Kyren Williams steaming ahead and Puka Nucua looking like the potential Offensive Rookie of the Year.

In addition to that, Stafford has done a good job building rapport with players such as Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell. Robinson is noteworthy because he’s essentially replaced Atwell as the third receiver in the offense and has 26 receptions for 371 yards and four touchdowns since Week 9 against the Packers.

Stafford also has Tyler Higbee, who’s been consistent. That’s important to note because the Rams run 11 personnel (one running back and one tight end) more than anyone in the league (95% of the time).

Defensively, the Rams are obviously led by defensive tackle Aaron Donald. No matter the situation, he can make a play at any time. This season, Donald has 53 tackles with eight sacks and 16 tackles for loss (tied for 10th-most in the NFL). But it’s no longer a one-man show with the Rams defense. They’ve seen some strong contributions from players such as safety Jordan Fuller and linebacker Ernest Jones.

Jones has 145 tackles this season, and Fuller is second on the team with 94 tackles. Fuller is tied for the team-high with three interceptions this season. Adding to that, the Rams are seeing strong contributions from rookie defenders such as Byron Young and Kobe Turner. Young has eight sacks this season, and Turner has nine.

But the Rams only have a 32% pressure rate, and that ranks them 29th in the NFL. Much of that is due to them only having three-man and four-man rushes. They have three-man pressures 9% of the time (ranked sixth in the NFL) and they have four-man pressures 63% of the time (ranked 25th in the NFL).

When looking at the Rams defense, they essentially run their dime defense (17% of the time, ranking ninth in the NFL) or their base defense (26% of the time, ranking ninth in the NFL). Against the pass, you will see man coverage from the Rams, but they’re essentially a zone defense with 63% of their coverage being defended that way (ranked 11th in the NFL).

Fortunately for Detroit, the Lions have quarterback Jared Goff and he’s been successful against zone coverage. Going into the Week 17 game against the Cowboys, Goff had completed 71.7% of his passes against zone and he had almost 2,800 passing yards against it. The only downside is that he’s thrown 10 interceptions against zone this season. But the last time the Lions faced a team that primarily ran a zone defense was against the Broncos, and we all saw how that turned out for Detroit.

As the Lions await to see the availability of tight end Sam LaPorta for their playoff game, all eyes will be on their defense. Over their last three games, the defense has given up 1,152 passing yards (384.0 yards per game) but they’re only allowing 20.25 points per game during that span.

Following the “bend but don’t break” mantra, this Lions defense has seven interceptions over the last three games. If they can find ways to bring Stafford down or force him into some tougher throws, the game could go well for the Lions and their defense.

Additionally, the Lions still have one of the best run defenses in the league. Their 88.8 rushing yards allowed per game is second-best in the NFL this season. Over their last four games, the Lions have only allowed 62.5 rushing yards per game. The Rams have found plenty of success on the ground with an average of 120.3 rushing yards per game. If the Lions can find ways to shut the run down like they have this season, the Rams offense could become one-dimensional.

Without question, this will be one of the most anticipated games in the history of the Lions franchise. On paper the matchup favors Detroit, but as we know, this game isn’t played on paper. Regardless of injuries and numbers, the Lions will need to bring their A-game for their historic season to continue.

*All data was pulled by Sports Info Solutions (SIS)*

Film room: Lions aggressive defense against the Broncos helps set the tone

Film room: Lions aggressive defense against the Broncos helps set the tone

Over the last several weeks, I’ve had some criticism towards the Detroit Lions defense. It was all warranted. They weren’t playing up to par and were getting torched on just about every possession. To fix it, the Lions had to make some tough decisions. They had to bench veteran players such as Jerry Jacobs and Tracy Walker.

This opened the door for players such as Khalil Dorsey, Ifeatu Melifonwu and Kindle Vildor. Love it or hate it, the defensive moves were needed. It appears to have provided a spark and hopefully, it’s one that wakes up other defenders that tend to sleep walk through some of these games.

One of the key adjustments the Lions needed to make on defense was to become more aggressive. Against the Broncos, they did just that. Russell Wilson went 18-for-32 with 223 passing yards and a touchdown.

But the pressure got to him as he was sacked twice and he was marked with four bad throws, per Pro Football Reference. In addition to that, Wilson was blitzed 15 times in this game and it led to 22 total pressures for the Lions defense. Let’s jump into the tape and take a look at some of the blitzes the Lions dialed up against the Broncos on Saturday night.

Starting with one of the biggest plays of the game, we direct our attention to the play above. The Broncos come out with their ’12’ personnel (one running back and two tight ends). To respond to it, the Lions defense have a single-high safety over the top of their defense and they’ve got a safety down in the box.

The safety down in the box is Ifeatu Melifonwu and the moment the ball is snapped, he fires up-field on a blitz. As quarterback Russell Wilson fakes the hand-off to the running back, he begins to roll to his right. Before he can even get his eyes downfield to try and find a receiver, he’s met by Melifonwu.

This blitz was designed perfectly and not only did Melifonwu hit Wilson for the sack, he also knocked hte ball out. This led to a fumble that was recovered by defensive tackle Isaiah Buggs. Even though the Lions offense weren’t able to put up any points after this turnover, it was a much needed play for the Lions defense. They needed to make a stop with the Broncos threatening to score. Additionally, this was a play that I’m sure helped build confidence for the Lions defense.

Next, I want to highlight another blitz made by safety Ifeatu Melifonwu. The Broncos come out in their ’11’ personnel (one running back and one tight end) but they’re in a condensed set with a slot receiver and tight end aligned near the tackles.

Once the ball is snapped, you can see how the Lions defensive backs rotate into what appears to be a Cover-2 look defensively. This gives them a two-high shell on both sides of the field but the key is Melifonwu. Once the ball is snapped, he flies towards the quarterback and his pressure forces Wilson out of the pocket. With good coverage by the Lions secondary, Wilson is forced to throw this ball away and the Broncos have to punt the ball away.

In this game, Melifonwu played a season-high 62 defensive snaps. He had one of the most productive days of his career. He had 9 total tackles, one sack and two pass deflections for a Lions defense that desperately needed a spark.

The last play I want to focus on is a blitz from defensive back Brian Branch. On the play above, the Broncos come out in a 2×2 set out of a shotgun formation. Aligned in the slot at the bottom of the screen is Brian Branch and he’s going to get a good pressure on this play.

Once the ball is snapped, the Lions send a 6-man pressure with Branch and Anzalone blitzing. Meanwhile, the Lions play man coverage on this and despite a miscue in the secondary (see the WR 17 on the bottom), the pressure from Detroit is real and it causes a bad throw.

As Branch blitzes, Wilson locks onto Jerry Jeudy on his right and is intending on taking a shot downfield. However, Branch delivers a shot to the back of Wilson and it causes this ball to float into the air and ultimately land incomplete. This forces the Broncos into a 3rd down but it’s good to see that despite being up 25 points, the Lions defense still has their foot on the gas.

With the Lions pushing for a division title and a shot at the playoffs, this defense will need to continue to be aggressive. Blitzing and putting trust in having good coverage downfield is one of the key ways this defense can keep the opposition at bay. It’ll be interesting to see what changes the defense continues to make with three games left in the regular season. One thing is for sure, they took a step in the right direction against the Broncos and hopefully soon, we’ll see Gardner-Johnson and McNeill back in the lineup too.

How Aaron Glenn’s evolution changed the Lions’ defense for the better

The Detroit Lions’ defense has engineered a major turnaround this season, and DC Aaron Glenn’s evolution is the main reason why.

In 2022, Aaron Glenn’s second season as the Detroit Lions’ defensive coordinator, that defense finished 27th in DVOA — which was a step up from their ranking of 29th in 2021.

What a difference a season makes. Through the first six weeks of the 2023 season, the Lions rank third in Defensive DVOA, behind only the Cleveland Browns and the Baltimore Ravens.

Better personnel has been part of the equation, but the Lions have also suffered their share of injuries. Really, it’s Glenn’s change of focus in coverage that has made the difference. Glenn was the New Orleans Saints’ defensive backs coach from 2016 through 2020, and under former defensive coordinator and current head coach Dennis Allen, the Saints are about pressure concepts and man coverage. The difference for the Saints is that they have had the players to tie pressure to coverage in ways other defenses might not.

Last season, per Sports Info Solutions, the Lions played the sixth-most snaps of man coverage against the pass in the NFL, allowing 110 completions on 153 attempts for 1,717 yards, nine touchdowns, five interceptions, and an opponent EPA of 10.51, 11th-worst in the league.

This offseason, Glenn obviously did some self-scouting, and put his players in better positions to succeed with different concepts. This season, the Lions have played the second-most snaps in zone coverage on pass plays behind only the Jacksonville Jaguars, allowing 102 completions on 153 attempts for 1,171 yards, one touchdown, four interceptions, and an opponent EPA of -0.73.

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys discuss how Glenn’s evolution into different coverages has been a huge factor in his team’s defensive turnaround.

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You can watch this week’s full “Xs and Os” video, featuring all of Week 7’s biggest matchups, right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.

Detroit Lions Podcast: Bish & Brown preview Lions vs. Buccaneers

Detroit Lions Podcast: Previewing Lions vs. Buccaneers with Scott Bischoff and Russell Brown

In addition to my content here on the Lions Wire, I’ve also been fortunate enough to team up with my friend and colleague Scott Bischoff. We’ll be teaming up and producing a weekly show for our friends over at the Detroit Lions Podcast network.

On this show, we’ll obviously talk about the Lions. However, we’ll also discuss their weekly opponent, how we expect the game to go and at some point, we’ll start adding some NFL Draft content into the mix.

This week, we previewed the Lions week 6 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Here’s what we discussed:

  • The Lions destroyed the Panthers for a 42-24 victory in week five.
  • Diversity in the Lions offense is why they’re one of the best teams in the NFL.
  • Expectations for Lions/Bucs.
  • All that and more!

The Lions defensive line needs more than just Aidan Hutchinson

Hutchinson has played very well but he’s too often the only DL doing anything well

There can be a lot of overreactions to an NFL team after two or three weeks, but I can assure you, this isn’t one of them. When watching the Detroit Lions defense trot onto the field, I can’t help but notice that their front four is limited outside of Aidan Hutchinson.

Through two games this season, the Lions talented pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson has a league-leading 13 total pressures (per PFF: three hits and 10 hurries). Those numbers are great, but the lack of sack production is concerning — but not as concerning as the lack of pressure being generated from the rest of the defenders on the defensive line.

From what I can tell on tape, much of the problem for the Detroit Lions defense is how stagnant the interior defensive line plays. Their 41% pressure rating (per The 33rd Team) is 4th best in the NFL, but it’s only generated one sack.

While that pressure rating is great, the Lions are sending 4-man pressures 80% of the time, and that’s the 5th-most in the NFL. As the season progresses, teams will transition to a quick passing attack like the Seahawks did and it will lead to more struggles for the defense.

According to Pro Football Reference, the Lions have 23 total pressures this season. Defensive linemen such as Benito Jones and John Cominsky have both played over 55% of the snaps this season. Only Cominsky has generated a pressure. Just one single pressure. Defensive lineman Alim McNeil has played 71% of the team’s snaps this season and he hasn’t generated one pressure either.

Not having more blitzes or a better pass rush from the interior defensive line is what is really hurting this defense. The Lions have a potential premier pass rusher in Aidan Hutchinson getting chipped from tight ends or double-teamed from tackles and guards on just about every single pass rush.

What makes all of this more surprising is the personnel statistics that have been charted on the Lions’ defense so far this season. According to personnel statistics (powered by SIS) from the 33rd Team, the Lions run zone coverage 64% of the time and man coverage 21% of the time.

Whether it be aligned in Cover 1 (man coverage) or Cover 3 (zone coverage), it’s not getting the job done for the Lions defense. So my question to Aaron Glenn is why aren’t you blitzing more? Blitzing more would indicate more 5 or 6-man pressures. Maybe, just maybe, that’ll generate the sack production that this defense desperately needs.

With injuries to Josh Paschal and James Houston, the Lions are going to have to get creative with their defensive personnel. I say that because I don’t see this team going out and signing a free agent defensive lineman to help generate more pressure. Instead, they’ll handle it within the organization but they’re going to have to figure it out quickly.

Maybe we’ll see players such as Brodric Martin and Isaiah Buggs provide a spark for the interior once they hit the field. But we don’t know when that will be. One can only hope that they’ll make a decision made on how to generate more pressure. If not, things could get uglier for this defense sooner rather than later.

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