New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun Game 3 odds and lines, with WNBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun meet Friday for Game 3 of their WNBA semifinals playoff matchup. The best-of-5 series is tied 1-1. Tip-off from Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn., is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Liberty vs. Sun Game 3 odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.

New York suffered a 78-63 setback in Game 1 on its home court, but it bounced back Tuesday with an 84-77 win in Game 2. Connecticut has covered the first 2 games in the series, as an 8.5-point and 9.5-point underdog, respectively.

After shooting just 34% in Game 1, the Liberty bounced back to hit 45% (29 of 65) from the field in Game 2, while hitting 38% (10 of 26) from behind the 3-point line and a perfect 100% (16 of 16) from the free-throw line.

The Sun turned it over just 9 times in Game 2, but it hit just 40% (27 of 68) from the field. G Tiffany Hayes was 1 of just 3 players to go for double-digit totals in Game 2 as she poured in 30 points in Game 2, including 5 triples.

Liberty at Sun Game 3 odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:26 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Liberty -176 (bet $176 to win $100) | Sun +142 (bet $100 to win $142)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Liberty -3.5 (-115) | Sun +3.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 159.5 (O: -113 | U: -113)

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Liberty at Sun Game 3 picks and predictions

Prediction

Sun 80, Liberty 76

Moneyline

The SUN (+142) are worth a roll of the dice in Game 3, as they look to push the Liberty to the brink of elimination.

While New York won both of the regular-season meetings in Connecticut, the most recent meeting was just a 5-point overtime victory.

Against the spread

The SUN +3.5 (-105) is worth a look in this pivotal Game 3. Connecticut has covered 5 of the past 7 meetings at home against New York and it is 5-0 ATS in the past 5 games following a straight-up loss. The Sun are also 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 games when playing on 2 days of rest.

The Liberty are 2-7 ATS in the past 9 when playing on 2 days of rest and are 0-4 ATS in the past 4 after a straight-up win.

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Over/Under

The UNDER 159.5 (-113) is the lean in Game 3.

The Under hit in Game 1, and the Over cashed in Game 2. The Under is 10-4 in the past 14 meetings between these squads and is 13-6-1 in the past 20 battles at Mohegan Sun Arena.

The Under is also 10-4 in the past 14 games for the Sun in the Semifinals round, while cashing at a 4-1 clip in the past 5 games when playing on 2 days of rest.

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New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun odds and lines, with WNBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Liberty (25-7) travel to meet the Connecticut Sun (23-10) Thursday. Tip-off from Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (Prime Video). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Liberty vs. Sun odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.

It’s been a great season for the Liberty so far, as New York has already clinched a playoff berth, while winning the Commissioner’s Cup. However, it leads the Eastern Conference by just 2 1/2 games over the Sun.

The Liberty have posted wins in 7 of the past 8 regular-season games, while covering 5 of the previous 6 outings. The Under is on a 7-1 run across the past 8 regular-season games, and 8-1 in the past 9 if you toss in the Commissioner’s Cup win over Las Vegas on Aug. 15.

The Sun won 68-64 last time out in Washington on Tuesday, pushing at most shops. The Sun is just 1-3-1 against the spread (ATS) across the past 5 games, with the Under hitting in each of the past 2 outings.

These 2 teams are the only ones in the East with a positive point differential. The Liberty won the first 2 battles this season, taking an 81-65 decision on May 27 in Brooklyn to cover a 6.5-point number as the Under (164.5) cashed, while winning 89-81 in Connecticut as 4.5-point favorites, while the Over (168.5) came through.

Liberty at Sun odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:41 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Liberty -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Sun +195 (bet $100 to win $195)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Liberty -6.5 (-105) | Sun +6.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 165.5 (O: -110) | U: -110)

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Liberty at Sun picks and predictions

Prediction

Liberty 79, Sun 73

Moneyline

The Liberty (-250) is quite attractive straight up, since New York has won the first 2 meetings by an average of 12.0 points per game (PPG). However, risking 2 1/2 times your potential return on a road team isn’t the best course of action. That’s too risky, and over the long haul, it’s a losing proposition.

PASS.

Against the spread

NEW YORK -6.5 (-105) is the lean, ever so slightly. I expect this one to come down to free throws at the end to determine who covers. The good news for Liberty backers is that they’re No. 2 in the WNBA in free-throw percentage at 82.5%, while also ranking No. 2 in points per game (88.5), field-goal percentage (45.5%) and 3-pointer percentage (37.9%).

Connecticut +6.5 (-115) is a very good team, but it has yet to be able to solve the Lib straight up, or against the number, in the previous 2 meetings.

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Over/Under

The UNDER 165.5 (-110) is the play, but like the side, I’d do lightly on this one.

The Under has been dominating for the Liberty lately, cashing in 7 of the past 8 regular-season games, as well as the Commissioner’s Cup win in Las Vegas on Aug. 15.

Like New York, Connecticut has fill up the basket with points, averaging 82.9 PPG. However, the Sun has the best D in the WNBA, allowing just 78.7 PPG, while holding the opposition to 31.3% from behind the arc, good for 2nd in the league.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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