NFL playoff picture: What matters most to each team after Week 12

Here’s what each playoff hopeful needs to worry most about right now.

The playoffs are five weeks away, and it seems like just a matter of time before the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers meet in the Super Bowl. At least, they seem like logical favorites after Week 12.

But there’s good news: We get to see that Super Bowl scenario in Week 13. The 49ers head to Baltimore to deliver a matchup of the NFL’s best teams. The thing about the NFL and its playoff structure is that we’re likely to see teams get hot — and suddenly the 49ers and Ravens won’t be the best teams in the league by the time Super Bowl 54 actually rolls around.

But considering the state of playoff picture, it doesn’t hurt to celebrate this version of a Week 13 Super Bowl. Here’s a look at that upcoming game and the rest of the playoff picture after Week 12.

1. New England Patriots (10-1)

Who matters most: Julian Edelman.

Could you imagine this offense without Edelman? Tom Brady is having a rough year as it is. The Patriots survived in Week 13 against the Cowboys despite injuries to receiver Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett. But it’s hard to imagine the Patriots coping without Edelman, who has been the avocado in Brady’s ice cream. The Patriots don’t have contributors at tight end. They are struggling to get young receivers Jakobi Meyers and N’Keal Harry on the same page as Brady. And running back Sony Michel, the bell cow and bulldozer last postseason, has been erratic.

So if Edelman went down, the Patriots offense, which has averaged just 16.7 points per game in the last three matches, would be lost,

2. Baltimore Ravens (8-2)

What matters most: Week 13.

I opened this story with an eye on the matchup between Lamar Jackson and the 49ers defense. And the truth is that Jackson matters most to this offense. He is unique, and the offense works around everything that makes him special. But that Week 13 matchup could be the most anticipated matchup of the 2019 regular season. The Ravens’ record is worse than the Patriots, but Baltimore whooped New England head-to-head. And maybe there’s a similar dispute in the AFC as to whether the Seahawks or 49ers are better (with Seattle winning their first head-to-head matchup).

Regardless, this game should be a delight, as we watch Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh try to deal with the Ravens’ whack-a-mole rushing offense.

3. Houston Texans (7-4)

What matters most: Deshaun Watson to Will Fuller.

Watson averages 62.5 more passing yards per game and 1.1 more passing touchdowns when Fuller plays, per NFL Research. That’s an absurd boost in production, and shows Fuller is well above his replacements. Obviously, the Watson-DeAndre Hopkins connection is hugely important. But Fuller’s health has been spotty. When he misses time, the Texans offense suffers.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

What matters most: Getting Patrick Mahomes right against the Raiders.

If there’s any defense for Mahomes to posterize, it’s Oakland, which had the fifth-worst passing defense in the NFL entering Week 12. Maybe the Raiders’ pass-rush is developing nicely behind rookies Maxx Crosby and Clelin Ferrel. So long as Mahomes can get the ball out, he’ll dissect the secondary. Mahomes is putting together an impressive but not jaw-dropping season. It’s time for him to go back to blowing our minds every week.

5. Buffalo Bills (8-3)

Who matters most: John Brown.

Last season, the Bills defense carried their team to a handful of big wins. Yes, Josh Allen’s rushing efforts made a major difference, too. But none of it felt sustainable unless Buffalo improved on offense, which would mean a complete overhaul at receiver this offseason. That’s basically what the Bills did, though they didn’t seem to bring in any one player who could be the No. 1 option. Brown, Cole Beasley and Duke Williams looked like complementary parts.

And yet Brown is eighth in receiving yards (856), 20th in receptions (58) and tied for 16th in receiving touchdowns (5) among all pass-catchers. His production is among the league’s finest, and it has made all the difference for the Bills.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

What matters most: Duck’s calls.

I can’t imagine a scenario where the Steelers are relevant in the playoffs. But I am very interested in the fact that Delvin “Duck” Hodges is a world champion duck caller. (It does not seem he has the potential to be a world champion signal-caller, however.)

Still in the hunt

Indianapolis Colts (6-5): The Colts badly need Jacoby Brissett to stay heathy. Turns out, Indy had two starting caliber QBs on their roster to start the year (Andrew Luck and Brissett). But they don’t have three. Don’t count out the Colts.
Tennessee Titans (6-5): I’m only half kidding when I say that Ryan Tannehill is playing like an MVP candidate.
Oakland Raiders (6-5): What matters most? Nothing. It should be all despair in Oakland. The Raiders lost a game to the stinking Jets. I had so much faith. Why did I have so much faith?

1. San Francisco 49ers (10-1)

What matters most: George Kittle’s insanity.

The guy played with a broken bone in his ankle. I’m not a doctor, but I hear you need your ankle for running, changing direction and general upright activities. Still, Kittle finished with team highs in receptions (6) and receiving yards (129) on Sunday. He also had a touchdown.

“It’s like a piece of tree bark came off,” Shanahan said of the injury Sunday, via the Sacramento Bee. “It was just a shaved part of the bone came off and when you do that, it’s still stable. You can’t break it worse and you’re able to go with it, but it’s extremely painful.”

It sort of felt like we’d go a long time before seeing another tight end as good as Rob Gronkowski. And yet Kittle is replicating Gronk’s well-rounded game. And apparently, Kittle is doing it with a broken bone.

2. New Orleans Saints (9-2)

What matters most: Marshon Lattimore’s health.

D.J. Moore managed six receptions, 126 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints on Sunday. That’s because New Orleans didn’t have Lattimore and resorted to using P.J. Williams on Moore. Williams excels in the slot, but when he’s forced to cover an outside receiver, Williams looks incompetent and the entire Saints defense suffers.

3. Green Bay Packers (8-3)

What matters most: Aaron Rodgers being Aaron Rodgers (consistently).

Rodgers was back to being an unflappable MVP candidate for roughly three weeks. But in his last three games, he’s been far less impressive, with 166 passing yards per game and two total passing touchdowns over that span.

Much has been made of the Patriots’ struggles on offense, with Brady and company limping through their tough stretch. Green Bay and Rodgers are doing the exact same thing in the other conference.

4. Dallas Cowboys (6-5)

What matters most: The Jerry Jones-Jason Garrett feud.

It seems Jerry Jones is intent upon playing with his food before he eats it. Jones is setting himself up to fire Jason Garrett. That’s clearly why Jones laid into Garrett after Sunday’s loss to the Patriots, which was largely a product of Garrett’s incompetence and poor decision-making.

“With the makeup of this team, I shouldn’t be this frustrated,” Jones said after the game on Sunday, via NFL.com.

Oh, but there’s more. In the windy and rainy matchup, the Patriots blocked a punt, and toyed with Dallas’ special teams units, which are among the worst in the NFL. Jones had a few thoughts on that.

“Special teams is totally a reflection of coaching,” Jones continued. “I don’t think there’s a game that a coaching staff has … that it couldn’t do better in. I just don’t like it that we’ve got so many as I’m standing here tonight.”

Garrett deserves to get fired. We know it. Jones knows it. Why wait? Well, apparently Jones wants to take a few weeks to point fingers.

5. Seattle Seahawks (9-2)

What matters most: Russell Wilson.

It’ll probably be Wilson every week. It’s preposterous that Wilson and the Seahawks are likely to enter the playoffs as the No. 5 seed, but their Week 17 matchup against the 49ers will loom large. In the meantime, Wilson will likely continue his remarkable MVP season.

A few stats from his year: His interception percentage (.9) is the lowest in his carer. His touchdown percentage (6.8) is the second-highest in his career. His completion percentage (67.3) is his second-best. And his yards per attempt (8.3) is tied for the highest figure of his career. The 31-year-old is undoubtedly the bet quarterback in the NFL.

6. Minnesota Vikings (8-3)

What matters most: Primetime performances.

Kirk Cousins’ reputation precedes him. He’s not a winner, and he definitely can’t win when the nation is watching. And while I have been endlessly dubious of Cousins and the Vikings, they have a chance to shut me up with a Monday night matchup in Seattle (I, for one, do not think the Vikings will win.) If they come away with a victory against one of the best teams in one of the harshest environments during a primetime game, the Vikings will establish themselves as indisputable contenders.

Still in the hunt

Los Angeles Rams (6-4): Can Sean McVay and Jared Goff get back to dissecting defenses as a two-man team?
Carolina Panthers (5-6): A valiant effort against the Saints wasn’t enough and the Panthers just don’t appear to have the consistency needed to stay in this chase.

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One of these 5 NFL teams will win Super Bowl 54

Let’s be honest: We know by now which teams are for real.

We’re about three-quarters of the way through the NFL season and only one team has been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. So if you root for one of the 31 teams that aren’t the Bengals, congrats. But let’s be real: The group of teams with a legitimate championship is so much smaller than tat.

At this point, the league is essentially a five-team race with a handful of teams tagging along for the playoff ride. And that secondary group includes several teams that are still very much in the race for a first-round bye. If you root for one of those teams, you might just want to temper your expectations now.

We’ll explain why those teams were left out of the group of possible title-winners later on. But before that, let’s meet the group that the Super Bowl champs will emerge from…

1. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have been the best team in football over the last month per Football Outsiders’ DVOA and I’m not sure this team is even close to hitting its peak yet. Not with Lamar Jackson improving every week and Wink Martindale’s defense getting healthier.

In 2019, it can be hard to trust an offense that’s built on the run game but this is unlike any other running game we’ve ever seen. With Jackson, the most explosive runner in the league regardless of position, at the center of it, Baltimore is really the only team that forces defenses to account for all 11 players during a run play. That’s how Baltimore is able to produce a running game that’s as efficient as a lot of teams’ passing games.

The Ravens defense, meanwhile, is built to stop the pass. Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in run defense but that hardly matters with the two other AFC teams on this list struggling to run the football. Both the Patriots and Chiefs rank in the bottom half of the league in run DVOA. If you want to beat those teams, you have to defend the pass, and the Ravens ranked third against the pass coming into Week 12 and have owned the league’s best pass defense since the Marcus Peters trade.

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On top of all that, the Ravens have a smart coaching staff that actually puts its analytics department to good use. We know that John Harbaugh is going to give his team the best chance to win with his optimized decision-making.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

It’s been an uneven season for the Chiefs but the pieces are still there for them to make a run at a Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes. Andy Reid is still calling the plays. And the receiving corps is still loaded with talent.

But you knew all that already. What you may not have known is that Kansas City owns one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Going into their Week 12 bye, the Chiefs ranked fourth in pass defense DVOA. They’ve hovered around the top-10 in Expected Points Added per pass attempt and success rate. Nobody is going to confuse this defense with the ’85 Bears, but it’s good enough.

Let’s be serious, though: Kansas City’s Super Bowl hopes still hinge on Mahomes’ right arm, and the reigning MVP is still putting up the best efficiency numbers in football. It hasn’t looked as good as it did a year ago, but he’s missed Tyreek Hill and parts of his offensive line throughout the season while also dealing with injuries of his own. This bye week came at a perfect time. If the Chiefs are healthy, they’ll have a chance to win it all.

3. New Orleans Saints

It’s been a weird season for the Saints offense, which is to be expected when Drew Brees misses a month of games. But we had gotten to a point where it was the New Orleans defense that was doing most of the heavy lifting. Then Sunday happened. For the first time all season, the Saints offense looked how we expected it to look. Alvin Kamara shook off a slow start and took over down the stretch. Michael Thomas did what Michael Thomas does: Get open every freaking play. Jared Cook was a major factor in this offense, continuing the trend of the last few weeks. Ted Ginn was getting open deep and dropping passes (just like old times). And, most importantly, Drew Brees was pushing the ball downfield accurately and even doing so while under pressure.

The defense didn’t play particularly well, but this was one of those weird games that all good defenses have. The Panthers had some short fields to work with and converted a ton of third down plays. Missing Marshon Lattimore, who would have been responsible for D.J. Moore on his long touchdown catch, also hurt. The Saints defense has been playing at a top-five clip since around Week 3, so I’m not too worried about what should be a minor blip.

I am, however, somewhat worried about the offensive line after Terron Armstead had to be carted off to the locker room on Sunday. But it looks like he escaped with a high ankle sprain and should be back to 100% by playoff time. New Orleans should also be getting Andrus Peat back around that time.

If the Saints can get fully healthy by January, they should be considered the favorites in the NFC.

4. San Francisco 49ers

While I do think the Saints will end up being the favorites to win the conference, the 49ers are a close second and will get a chance to play New Orleans in a few weeks. That will likely decide the home-field advantage race in the NFC, assuming the Seahawks’ luck in close games eventually runs out.

That Monday night loss to Seattle convinced a lot of people the 49ers weren’t legit, but they were without their two best pass-catchers and that had an obvious effect on Jimmy Garaoppolo. But with George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders back in the lineup against a solid Packers team, we saw what this offense could be. I don’t know if there is another play-caller operating at the level Kyle Shanahan is right now and that should be a tremendous advantage come playoff time.

The 49ers defense has played well throughout the season but may have turned in its best performance on Sunday night. The pass rush dominated a Packers offensive line that led the league in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate metric before Week 12. The secondary is benefitting from the quick pressure but also making plays of its own. And the linebacker group continues to play well after Kwon Alexander’s season-ending pectoral injury.

The one concern with this team remains Garoppolo. He’s undoubtedly talented but his lows are Jameis Winston-ugly, as we saw in the loss to Seattle. If Shanahan can keep dialing up open receivers to throw to and keep the running game on track, he should be able to limit those moments.

5. New England Patriots

I came THIS close to leaving the Patriots off the list. That may seem silly with New England owning the best record in the league, but it’s hard to get excited about the offense in its current state. And while I trust Tom Brady, Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick to make the necessary adjustments, I just don’t know if the talent is on the roster to find an answer.

I will say this: Even in the driving rain, Brady looked as good against Dallas as he had all season. The Patriots appeared to be taking a more spread-out approach to the offense but the weather made it difficult to stick with the strategy. For that reason, it’s hard to draw any conclusions from the win over the Cowboys. We’ll find out more about the Pats offense in the coming weeks.

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We can draw one conclusion from the game: The New England defense is relentless and, as long as the playoffs go through Foxborough, it will give the Patriots a chance. If any coach is capable of dragging a punchless offense to a title, it’s Belichick.

Just missed the list

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson continues to be amazing, but it’s just so hard to trust a coaching staff that finds new ways to almost give away games. In the playoffs, the margins are much slimmer, so those suboptimal decisions become even more of an issue. A brilliant quarterback can carry a team only so far.

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Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are slowly morphing into the Seahawks of the Southwest. Everything I just said about Seattle applies to this Dallas team, which, on paper, should be good enough to win a Super Bowl.

Minnesota Vikings

It’s the Vikings so you just know this season will end in heart-breaking fashion. You throw Kirk Cousins into the mix and there’s no telling how bad it will be. Even fans in Minnesota have to be wary. But I’ll be willing to adjust my priors if the Vikings go into Seattle next Monday night and win in impressive fashion. Until then, I can’t trust them.

Buffalo Bills

I’m not going to shame the Bills for beating up on an easy schedule, but that doesn’t mean I have to take them seriously as contenders. Buffalo just isn’t built to win in today’s NFL. The defense is very good — and sometimes great — but defensive performance is volatile and the same can be said about Josh Allen at this point in his career.

Green Bay Packers

You watched this team on Sunday night, right? The Packers might win a playoff game, but they’ll be blown out by the first good team they play.

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Scouting the Los Angeles Rams

A look at the Los Angeles Rams from a playcalling and tendency point of view ahead of Monday Night Football in Week 12

The Baltimore Ravens travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams on Monday Night Football, as they continue their push for the postseason. This will be the seventh meeting between these two teams, but the first time that a game will be played in Los Angeles. The last time the Ravens went on to the road to face the Rams in 2011, the Rams called St. Louis home.

The Ravens own a 4-2 record against the Rams and have won each of the last three games between the two sides. Their last encounter was back in 2015 in a game the Ravens won 16-13 thanks to a Justin Tucker field goal from 47 yards out as time expired.

Let’s take a closer look at the Rams to better acquaint ourselves with what the Ravens are likely to see on Monday night.

Offense

Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

The Rams offense which took the league by storm in coach Sean McVay’s first two seasons has failed to hit these heights in 2019. The Kansas City Chiefs were the only team that scored more points and had more yards than the Rams in 2018. But the Rams are a lot closer to the middle of the pack this season. They are 13th in points scored and 15th in total offense. This is largely due to their failings in the run game, as they sit 21st in rushing yards against 7th in passing.

The Rams are predominantly an 11 personnel offense (three wide receivers, one running back and one tight end), and have lined up this way on 77% of their offensive plays this season. This is the second-highest rate in the NFL. They switch to 12 personnel (one back, two wide receivers and two tight ends) 15% of the time, the 8th lowest rate. The Rams like to run the ball out of 12, doing so on 69% of the time. They average only 3.3 yards per rush attempt, however, compared with 4.1 when they are in 11. The Rams average 7.4 yards per pass attempt in either formation.

From a play-calling point of view, the Rams are balanced between pass and run. They have a pass to run ratio of 1.53 this season, which is 17th in the NFL. The Rams slightly favor passing on 1st-and-10, but not by much. Their pass to run ratio in this scenario is 51-49.

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Chiefs Wire Podcast: Early season reflection during bye week

Special guests Robert Rimpson and Huong Forrest join to discuss the Kansas City Chiefs and the bye week.

We’re back with an all-new episode of the Chiefs Wire podcast!

During this episode, Chiefs Wire managing editor Charles Goldman opens the show recapping last Monday night’s division victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. Cali-Chief Danilo Di Julio and Talon Graff are joined by special guest and former Chiefs cheerleader Huong Forrest to preview the Chiefs second half of the season in our roundtable discussion. Lastly, Arrowhead Pride’s Robert Rimpson calls in to review the Chiefs’ first half of the season and goals after the bye week.

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Chiefs Wire Podcast: Early season reflection during bye week

Special guests Robert Rimpson and Huong Forrest join to discuss the Kansas City Chiefs and the bye week.

We’re back with an all-new episode of the Chiefs Wire podcast!

Listen on Audioboom

Listen on Spotify

Listen on Radio.com

Listen on Deezer

Listen on Castbox.fm

Ranking Chargers’ 5 remaining regular-season opponents

Chargers Wire’s Gavino Borquez ranks the Chargers’ remaining opponents from the toughest to the weakest.

The Los Angeles Chargers have five opponents to face before their 2019 season comes to an end.

Sitting at 4-7, their playoff chances aren’t mathematically diminished, but they will still have a tough road ahead, and they will likely have to get some help from other teams if they wish to keep playing in January.

With that, we decided to rank the Bolts’ remaining regular season opponents from the toughest to the weakest to show what they will be tasked with in the final stretch of the year.

1. Week 15 vs. Minnesota Vikings (8-3)

The Vikings are looking to be crowned NFC North champs, and they have certainly been playing like it in all facets of the game.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins is having one of his best seasons yet, passing for 2,020 yards, 18 touchdowns and one interception since Week 5. Running back Dalvin Cook has been a threat out of the backfield. Wide receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are still one of the most dynamic duos.

Meanwhile, their defense continues to be impactful on a weekly basis, particularly the front seven, who’s allowing 94.2 yards per game on the ground and has gotten to the quarterback 31 times.

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Ranking all 32 NFL teams by record in the 2010s decade

WATCH: Tyreek Hill to have MRI on right hamstring after MNF injury

Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill is set to have an MRI on his right hamstring “in the next day or so,” NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported Tuesday.

Hill suffered a hamstring injury on the last play of the first drive of Kansas City’s 24-17 win against the Chargers Monday night at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

The 25-year-old left the field and was worked on by the medical staff on the sideline before heading to the locker room. Hill returned to the sideline but never re-entered the game Monday.

Hill missed four games this season (Week 2 through Week 5) with a sternum injury. He averages 16.5 yards per catch on 33 receptions for 543 yards in seven games this season. Hill has scored 5 touchdowns this year.

The Chiefs (7-4) lead the AFC West and are now in their bye week for Week 12.

Tyreek Hill to have MRI on right hamstring after MNF injury (Chiefswire)

Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill is set to have an MRI on his right hamstring “in the next day or so,” NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported Tuesday.

Tyreek Hill to have MRI on right hamstring after MNF injury

Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill is set to have an MRI on his right hamstring “in the next day or so,” NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported Tuesday.