We’re about three-quarters of the way through the NFL season and only one team has been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. So if you root for one of the 31 teams that aren’t the Bengals, congrats. But let’s be real: The group of teams with a legitimate championship is so much smaller than tat.
At this point, the league is essentially a five-team race with a handful of teams tagging along for the playoff ride. And that secondary group includes several teams that are still very much in the race for a first-round bye. If you root for one of those teams, you might just want to temper your expectations now.
We’ll explain why those teams were left out of the group of possible title-winners later on. But before that, let’s meet the group that the Super Bowl champs will emerge from…
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have been the best team in football over the last month per Football Outsiders’ DVOA and I’m not sure this team is even close to hitting its peak yet. Not with Lamar Jackson improving every week and Wink Martindale’s defense getting healthier.
In 2019, it can be hard to trust an offense that’s built on the run game but this is unlike any other running game we’ve ever seen. With Jackson, the most explosive runner in the league regardless of position, at the center of it, Baltimore is really the only team that forces defenses to account for all 11 players during a run play. That’s how Baltimore is able to produce a running game that’s as efficient as a lot of teams’ passing games.
The Ravens defense, meanwhile, is built to stop the pass. Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in run defense but that hardly matters with the two other AFC teams on this list struggling to run the football. Both the Patriots and Chiefs rank in the bottom half of the league in run DVOA. If you want to beat those teams, you have to defend the pass, and the Ravens ranked third against the pass coming into Week 12 and have owned the league’s best pass defense since the Marcus Peters trade.
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On top of all that, the Ravens have a smart coaching staff that actually puts its analytics department to good use. We know that John Harbaugh is going to give his team the best chance to win with his optimized decision-making.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
It’s been an uneven season for the Chiefs but the pieces are still there for them to make a run at a Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes. Andy Reid is still calling the plays. And the receiving corps is still loaded with talent.
But you knew all that already. What you may not have known is that Kansas City owns one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Going into their Week 12 bye, the Chiefs ranked fourth in pass defense DVOA. They’ve hovered around the top-10 in Expected Points Added per pass attempt and success rate. Nobody is going to confuse this defense with the ’85 Bears, but it’s good enough.
Let’s be serious, though: Kansas City’s Super Bowl hopes still hinge on Mahomes’ right arm, and the reigning MVP is still putting up the best efficiency numbers in football. It hasn’t looked as good as it did a year ago, but he’s missed Tyreek Hill and parts of his offensive line throughout the season while also dealing with injuries of his own. This bye week came at a perfect time. If the Chiefs are healthy, they’ll have a chance to win it all.
3. New Orleans Saints
It’s been a weird season for the Saints offense, which is to be expected when Drew Brees misses a month of games. But we had gotten to a point where it was the New Orleans defense that was doing most of the heavy lifting. Then Sunday happened. For the first time all season, the Saints offense looked how we expected it to look. Alvin Kamara shook off a slow start and took over down the stretch. Michael Thomas did what Michael Thomas does: Get open every freaking play. Jared Cook was a major factor in this offense, continuing the trend of the last few weeks. Ted Ginn was getting open deep and dropping passes (just like old times). And, most importantly, Drew Brees was pushing the ball downfield accurately and even doing so while under pressure.
The defense didn’t play particularly well, but this was one of those weird games that all good defenses have. The Panthers had some short fields to work with and converted a ton of third down plays. Missing Marshon Lattimore, who would have been responsible for D.J. Moore on his long touchdown catch, also hurt. The Saints defense has been playing at a top-five clip since around Week 3, so I’m not too worried about what should be a minor blip.
I am, however, somewhat worried about the offensive line after Terron Armstead had to be carted off to the locker room on Sunday. But it looks like he escaped with a high ankle sprain and should be back to 100% by playoff time. New Orleans should also be getting Andrus Peat back around that time.
If the Saints can get fully healthy by January, they should be considered the favorites in the NFC.
4. San Francisco 49ers
While I do think the Saints will end up being the favorites to win the conference, the 49ers are a close second and will get a chance to play New Orleans in a few weeks. That will likely decide the home-field advantage race in the NFC, assuming the Seahawks’ luck in close games eventually runs out.
That Monday night loss to Seattle convinced a lot of people the 49ers weren’t legit, but they were without their two best pass-catchers and that had an obvious effect on Jimmy Garaoppolo. But with George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders back in the lineup against a solid Packers team, we saw what this offense could be. I don’t know if there is another play-caller operating at the level Kyle Shanahan is right now and that should be a tremendous advantage come playoff time.
The 49ers defense has played well throughout the season but may have turned in its best performance on Sunday night. The pass rush dominated a Packers offensive line that led the league in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate metric before Week 12. The secondary is benefitting from the quick pressure but also making plays of its own. And the linebacker group continues to play well after Kwon Alexander’s season-ending pectoral injury.
The one concern with this team remains Garoppolo. He’s undoubtedly talented but his lows are Jameis Winston-ugly, as we saw in the loss to Seattle. If Shanahan can keep dialing up open receivers to throw to and keep the running game on track, he should be able to limit those moments.
5. New England Patriots
I came THIS close to leaving the Patriots off the list. That may seem silly with New England owning the best record in the league, but it’s hard to get excited about the offense in its current state. And while I trust Tom Brady, Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick to make the necessary adjustments, I just don’t know if the talent is on the roster to find an answer.
I will say this: Even in the driving rain, Brady looked as good against Dallas as he had all season. The Patriots appeared to be taking a more spread-out approach to the offense but the weather made it difficult to stick with the strategy. For that reason, it’s hard to draw any conclusions from the win over the Cowboys. We’ll find out more about the Pats offense in the coming weeks.
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We can draw one conclusion from the game: The New England defense is relentless and, as long as the playoffs go through Foxborough, it will give the Patriots a chance. If any coach is capable of dragging a punchless offense to a title, it’s Belichick.
Just missed the list
Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson continues to be amazing, but it’s just so hard to trust a coaching staff that finds new ways to almost give away games. In the playoffs, the margins are much slimmer, so those suboptimal decisions become even more of an issue. A brilliant quarterback can carry a team only so far.
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Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are slowly morphing into the Seahawks of the Southwest. Everything I just said about Seattle applies to this Dallas team, which, on paper, should be good enough to win a Super Bowl.
Minnesota Vikings
It’s the Vikings so you just know this season will end in heart-breaking fashion. You throw Kirk Cousins into the mix and there’s no telling how bad it will be. Even fans in Minnesota have to be wary. But I’ll be willing to adjust my priors if the Vikings go into Seattle next Monday night and win in impressive fashion. Until then, I can’t trust them.
Buffalo Bills
I’m not going to shame the Bills for beating up on an easy schedule, but that doesn’t mean I have to take them seriously as contenders. Buffalo just isn’t built to win in today’s NFL. The defense is very good — and sometimes great — but defensive performance is volatile and the same can be said about Josh Allen at this point in his career.
Green Bay Packers
You watched this team on Sunday night, right? The Packers might win a playoff game, but they’ll be blown out by the first good team they play.
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