Oregon vs. Washington: ‘Tale of the Tape’ for No. 8 Ducks vs. No. 7 Huskies
It’s not often that a matchup is so razor-thin that we need to call in the advanced statistics to see who has the slightest edge. However, in this week’s top-10 showdown between the No. 8 Oregon Ducks and No. 6 Washington Huskies, looking at the basic key statistics that we typically use wasn’t good enough.
It was still a dead-even split on paper.
So with Bo Nix and Michael Penix squaring off on Saturday, and Dan Lanning calling his second game against Kalen DeBoer, we had to dive a bit deeper into the numbers to try and determine which team had the upper hand. This game is up in Seattle, so the Huskies will undoubtedly have an advantage when it comes to the environment, playing in one of the most hostile venues on the West Coast.
ESPN’s College GameDay will be there, and the fanfare will be off the charts as both teams look to step into the role of Pac-12 darlings early in this season with a win.
Here’s a deep dive into the numbers to figure out which potential darling has the edge on paper.
Operating under the assumption that Tucker has coached his last game as the head man of the Michigan State football program, as Lansing State Journal reporter Graham Couch speculated, the Spartans will be in the market for a new leader of their football program.
Check out some of the potential candidates Michigan State could look to bring in:
Washington is set up to have another really good season on the gridiron, but it would be hard-pressed to repeat last year’s success.
As June starts to roll into July, and July eventually leads us to the start of fall camps at the beginning of August, the 2023 college football season will be here before we know it. What a season it projects to be in the Pac-12 Conference, as well. With a handful of College Football Playoff contenders, and a group of Heisman Trophy candidates leading their prospective teams, we could be set up for one of the best football seasons out west that we’ve seen in decades. To help get us prepared, we at Ducks Wire wanted to go through each team in the conference and give a comprehensive breakdown of each school, breaking down their 2023 outlook. Welcome to our Pac-12 Previews. New editions will be published every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday leading up to the start of fall camp.
The Washington Huskies surprised the college football world last season by going 11-2 and winning the Alamo Bowl over Texas, 27-20. Nearly everything went right for the Dawgs, which was a far cry from the two previous seasons with Jimmy Lake as coach.
But even then, no one could have expected for quarterback Michael Penix, an average and often injured signal caller from Indiana, to come to Seattle and tear it up. And then he surprised people by announcing he would return for one more season.
Washington also returns one of the best receiving corps in the country with Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan leading the way. But the offensive line doesn’t have a lot of experience and the defense could be a weak point many Pac-12 teams will exploit.
They have a tougher schedule than one would expect, but the talent in Seattle should be enough for another successful season in 2023. They won’t go 11-2 again, but considering where the program was just two years ago, Huskies fans will be satisfied.
Is the top talent in the northwest staying in the northwest? Take a look at where Oregon and Washington’s best players have committed in 2024.
One of the most important keys to recruiting in the world of college football is being able to hold onto the talent that is close to home. While the Oregon Ducks have seen some massive success over the past decade recruiting on a national scale and bringing in top players from states like Texas, Florida, and California, what keeps a brand strong is the ability to hold onto the players who grow up in your backyard.
It’s that reason that the USC Trojans were so dominant in the recruiting game for much of this century; they were able to hold onto the elite players who grew up in California and get them to play in Los Angeles.
While the state of Oregon and Washington may not produce as much talent as places like California, Georgia, or Florida at the high school football level, it is still pivotal for success to make sure that the best players in your neck of the woods don’t take off to play elsewhere.
When Dan Lanning came to Oregon, he said that was among his top keys to success in the recruiting game.
So when we look at the Pacific Northwest — Oregon, Washington, and Idaho — who are the top-rated players in the 2024 class, and where are they currently committed or trending to sign? Let’s take a look:
Maintaining these good vibes will require some gains in the recruiting department.
Washington was one of the biggest surprises in college football last season. After going 4-8 under previous head coach Jimmy Lake, the Huskies went 11-2 in their first year under Kalen DeBoer. Their rise should continue into 2023, as most of Washington’s key players decided not to declare for the NFL draft, keeping together the core of the roster for another run.
No matter how they perform on the field this year, maintaining these good vibes and building a long-term Pac-12 contender will require some gains in the recruiting department. On that score, there’s good news for Washington fans: Yesterday, Oak Hills (Calif.) four-star offensive lineman Paki Finau announced his commitment to the Huskies.
“I would like to thank all the schools and coaches for putting their time and effort into me during this recruiting process, I truly appreciate everything! With that being said, I have talked to my parents and close guardians, although it was a hard decision, I would like to announce my commitment to The University of Washington! #GoDAWGS”
Going by the 247Sports rankings, Finau (6-foot-4, 265 pounds) is No. 11 among interior offensive linemen in his class, No. 24 overall in California and No. 216 nationally. He had offers from 25 other programs, including Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Oregon and Washington State.
After adding Finau, Washington’s class of 2024 has three hard commits and ranks No. 57 in the country.
Jonathan Smith made an extra $25,000 for OSU’s win over the Ducks in 2022. See what other contract incentives were paid out to Pac-12 coaches this season.
When football coaches get new jobs and change teams in the ever-churning coaching carousel at the college level, one of the most notable things that fans and media members often end up looking at after the hire is complete is the compensation that your school is giving up.
Sometimes it’s an astronomical amount, like Alabama’s Nick Saban, who reportedly made $10.95 million in 2022 alone. Other times it seems far more reasonable. Often, though, the base salary is just part of the overall contract, though. While many coaches work for an annual salary, there are almost always incentives and bonuses that come along if certain milestones are met. Those incentives can kick in if the team becomes bowl eligible, reaches a conference championship game, or sometimes even if they simply beat their biggest rival.
For coaches at public universities, this information is made known through records requests, but the same can’t be said for private universities. Now that the 2022 season is behind us, USA TODAY went through and tallied up the incentives and bonuses that were made over the last year, taking a look at which coaches made off the best when all was said and done.
Our eyes immediately went to the coaches in the Pac-12. Here are how the coaches out west fared when it came to contract bonuses.
It can be only one of two men for #Pac12 Coach of the Year: Washington’s Kalen DeBoer or #USC’s Lincoln Riley. Let’s evaluate:
We are just a few days away from Thanksgiving. That means the college football regular season is almost over. That means it’s the time of year to discuss college football awards for the season.
USC quarterback Caleb Williams is centrally involved in the Heisman Trophy race. USC’s defensive line coach, Shaun Nua, is a Broyles Award semifinalist. USC defensive lineman Tuli Tuipulotu is a prime contender for Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year. USC is well-represented in various awards races.
One other award in which the Trojans have a prime candidate: 2022 Pac-12 Coach of the Year. Let’s look at where Lincoln Riley stands in the larger race:
Cal scored 35 vs USC and was then crushed by Oregon State. Justin Wilcox fired his OC. That and more in this #USC / #Pac12 notebook:
There is a lot to keep track of in the world of Pac-12 football after a crazy Week 11 and heading into a Week 12 which features two mammoth games.
“Showdown Saturday” gives the Pac-12 the two biggest games of the coming weekend in college football. USC-UCLA is the first game at 8 Eastern and Utah-Oregon is second at 10:30. We will preview those games as the week unfolds, but for now, let’s look back at Week 11 and offer some updates on Pac-12 teams plus sharing some rankings from analysts and commentators.
We start with the fact that California and head coach Justin Wilcox fired offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave just over a week after Cal scored 35 against USC. Cal was flattened by Oregon State this past Saturday.
Imagine what a team with USC’s offense and Oregon State’s defense would look like.
Only a few more sleeps before Oregon vs. Washington kicks off. Check out what Lanning had to say as the Ducks continue to prepare for the Huskies.
In just a few days, the newest chapter of the Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies rivalry is going to be started. With Dan Lanning and Kalen DeBoer squaring off for the first time, we’re going to be in for a treat.
This feels like one of the more important matchups that we’ve seen in quite some time between these two teams. Not only are both schools represented by new coaching staffs and a fresh belief that their team is heading in the right direction, but it also comes on the heels of a highly-contentious matchup in 2021 that saw hate and vitriol lobbed across the field at one another like grenades on a battlefield.
This matchup means a lot to everyone involved, and both teams have been hard at work making sure they’re prepared.
After Wednesday’s practice, Lanning met with media members one last time before the big game on Saturday. Here are some of the most notable things that he had to say:
The 114th chapter of Oregon vs. Washington is coming on Saturday. This one will be written by Dan Lanning and Company.
Your average college football team plays 12 games a year. The good ones get 13 games, and the great ones get 14. To say that each individual contest is important is an understatement.
Rivalry games come once a year. If you’re lucky, and the school that you root for is entrenched in a passionate clash with another fanbase, then these games are arguably more important than any other on the schedule. The result of this meeting will go on to shape the next 11 months of interactions for the two regions, with one walking tall, holding reason to boast. The other will often quietly sulk and pretend that it didn’t mean as much as we all know it did.
For those reasons, this upcoming game between the No. 6 Oregon Ducks and No. 23 Washington Huskies is one of the most important games that will be played in Eugene this season. The potential ramifications are enormous.
This is a rivalry that has lacked some luster in recent years. The Ducks are currently on a three-game winning streak over the Huskies, and have won 15 of the last 17 matchups between the two, with an impressive 12-game stretch from 2004-2015.
While the play on the field hasn’t always been competitive, the heat off of the gridiron has been as entertaining as ever. The 2021 matchup between these two teams might have served just a small role in either team’s season outcome, but it certainly added fuel to the fire of Washington vs. Oregon hatred.
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For starters, you had the “academic prowess” comments from former UW head coach Jimmy Lake, where he proclaimed that Oregon isn’t a rival to the Huskies because they don’t have the same scholastic accolades as “Notre Dame, Stanford, and USC,” a trio of teams that Lake considered rivals.
It was the first “petty grenade” that was lobbed in the 2021 matchup, and though Mario Cristobal continually shrugged it off as nothing, you could tell that it made the rounds in the locker room.
(AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)
If you look at those comments as Lake putting his foot in his mouth, then the actual game between the two teams served as the Huskies’ head coach tripping over himself and face-planting into the mud.
It certainly wasn’t pretty, but Oregon ended up winning 26-16 on the road after an ill-advised decision to punt when trailing by 8 with less than 2 minutes left in the game resulted in a comical safety for Washington.
Once the clock struck zero, Cristobal grabbed that petty grenade and lobbed it back into the Huskies’ camp, landing it perfectly in Lake’s lap.
“Those (expletive) guys right there, they represent everything that’s wrong with football,” Cristobal exclaimed in a locker room celebration video captured by a number of players after the game. “So when you kick their ass, you let them know it.”
Oregon vs Washington 2021 video. The game that got Washington's head coach suspended and ultimately fired. pic.twitter.com/UfnjA5ULjy
As I alluded to earlier, the Duck faithful have been dining on that one night of travesty for the last 366 days, never missing a chance to take pleasure in the Huskies’ misery.
On Saturday evening, though, the slate will be temporarily wiped clean as the two teams meet again. Should Oregon triumph, expect more ammo to be added to the arsenal of a rabid fanbase that has grown drunk with moxie and winning over the past two decades. Should the Huskies come out on top and end the Ducks’ campaign for a College Football Playoff berth, expect years of hurt and anger to be lobbed over the fence in the form of ridicule and slander.
The Oregon Ducks are fortunate enough to have a pair of rivalry games on their schedule this year, with the Oregon State Beavers coming up at the end of the regular season as well. I will contend that this Washington game is the one that really matters, though, and the one that will hold greater weight going forward.
It’s called ‘Husky Hate Week’ in Eugene for a reason. All due respect to little brother OSU, but there isn’t a ‘Beaver Hate Week’ that is celebrated throughout the Oregon campus every year. At some point, it starts to feel like bullying and piling on.
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What makes this game so important this year is the representation of a new chapter in the rivalry. While Oregon fans got the last laugh in 2021, they were still left down in the dirt after the season came to an end with Cristobal jetting for South Beach. Now both teams enter this rivalry with a new head coach at the helm, as Dan Lanning and Kalen DeBoer prepare for their first of hopefully many duels.
It’s an outcome that will likely hold greater weight than others down the road. A win in the first meeting between these two will mean more than a win in the second meeting, or the third. I can’t tell you why, exactly, but it’s simply the case. Both fan bases are feeling as confident in their team’s ability as they have in quite some time, and the loser of this game is going to face a harsh realization that they aren’t as good as they previously thought.
My early prediction is that Oregon is going to win, and potentially by a lot. Washington has a great passing offense, but the defense needs a lot of work, and they’re going to struggle to stop Bo Nix and Kenny Dillingham. I couldn’t tell you what the final score will be, but I feel confident saying that a lot of points will be put on the board when all is said and done.
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And if Duck fans are lucky, they will be leaving Autzen Stadium with some pep in their step, knowing that there are another 360-plus days of ridicule and chastising that they can direct at their neighbors up north. Who knows, there may be some petty grenades that get lobbed around as well — the week is still young.
As we gear up for the showdown between Oregon and Washington, I encourage fans on both sides to get prepared. This game isn’t just another game, and the outcome won’t be held in the same regard as any other outcome.
This is the newest chapter of Husky Hate Week in Eugene, written by Dan Lanning and Co.
