Storylines for Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos in Week 12.
The Bills will look to keep their winning-ways moving forward in Week 12 as Buffalo hosts the Denver Broncos at New Era Field.
While entering the game at a better 7-3 record, the 3-7 Broncos will present plenty of challenges to the Bills.
With that, here are five storylines to watch unfold during the Bills’ meeting with the Broncos:
Bills defensive tackle Corey Liuget. Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Is the run defense actually back?
The Bills run defense has been more than suspect this season. Allowing 106.3 yards per game on the ground, Buffalo’s run defense is the 18th best group of run defenders in the NFL. Last week against the Dolphins, the Bills actually got the job done, though.
Starting running back Kalen Ballage had a score, but he only mustered up nine yards on nine carries. But you can’t bring that money to the bank. Buffalo’s offense got the job done and forced the Dolphins offense to abandon the rushing attack early. Plus, it’s the Dolphins. Despite entering Week 11 on a two-game winning streak, that’s not a good team. Shutting down the Broncos’ attack with Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman is going to be a much more difficult task.
Six numbers to know from the Buffalo Bills’ Week 11 win over the Miami Dolphins.
So you wanted a statement game? You wanted style points? Done and done.
The Buffalo Bills played their best game of the season – led by what was arguably quarterback Josh Allen’s best game as a pro in a 37-20 thumping of the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday in Week 11.
The win bumps Buffalo’s record to 7-3, its best mark after 10 games since 1999.
Here are six numbers to know from the win:
117.1
For better or worse, this team will go as far as Allen can take them. Despite having a borderline elite defense, it’s going to be the second-year signal caller that is going to determine whether or not Buffalo’s hunt for the postseason is a success.
On Sunday, Allen did nearly everything right. He threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns on 21-of-33 passing and ran for 56 yards and a score on seven carries – all without a turnover. His 117.1 passer rating was the highest of his career.
Detractors are going to say he failed to hit the 300-yard passing mark, or that it was a muted performance based on the opposition, but Allen was downright exceptional in South Beach.
137
The beat just goes on and on for John Brown. Brown turned in his best game as Bill, hauling in nine receptions for 137 yards and two scores. He extended his streak of consecutive games with at least five receptions and 50 yards to 10 games and is now at 56 receptions for 817 yards and four touchdowns on the season.
Brown is on pace for 90 receptions, 1307 yards and six touchdowns. His three-year, $27-million contract is looking more and more like a steal.
16
Fans have been pleading to get running back Devin Singletary more involved in the offense. The Bills did just that Sunday; Singletary led the team with 75 rushing yards on a team-high 15 attempts and finished with 16 total touches and 79 yards of total offense. It was the fourth-straight game in which Singletary led the team in rushing attempts.
Frank Gore finished with 11 carries for 27 yards, and the changing of the guard that Buffalo fans have expected may finally be upon us.
0
Robert Foster’s season-long struggles continued Sunday; he failed to see the field in the victory. While Brown, Cole Beasley and Isaiah McKenzie each played at least 78 percent of Buffalo’s offensive snaps, and Andre Roberts seeing nine snaps, Foster was the odd man out after playing just 16 snaps a week ago.
In seven games this season, Foster has just one reception for 20 yards – signaling the Bills are likely moving on from the second-year receiver.
7
Buffalo’s defense recorded a season-high seven sacks and tallied 14 quarterback hits. While the lone turnover Buffalo forced came via an Allen Hurns fumble, the Bills were equally disruptive against the Dolphins ground game — holding Miami to just 23 rushing yards.
-5
After two straight games away from home, Buffalo returns to New Era Field in Week 12 to take on Denver. The Bills opened as five-point favorites over the Broncos (3-7), who squandered a 20-0 lead in a 27-23 loss to Minnesota Sunday.
Buffalo is 6-3-1 against the spread, but just 2-3 ATS at home, while Denver is 6-4 against the spread and 3-2 ATS on the road.
The Over/Under is set for 36.5; Las Vegas expects the Bills to grind out a close, low scoring game.
Stock report for Buffalo Bills Week 11 win over the Miami Dolphins.
The Bills had their way with the Miami Dolphins for most of their Week 11 meeting as Buffalo secured a 37-20 victory.
All three phases of the game for the Bills made an impact in this one – mostly for better, but at times for worse.
With that, here’s Bills Wire’s Week 11 stock report following Buffalo’s win:
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Stock up
QB Josh Allen
Still no 300-yard outings for the Bills quarterback. Allen finished with 256 yards passing against the Dolphins, but he undoubtedly had a heck of a day. Overall, Allen was 21-for-33 passing with three TD passes, plus another rushing score. He also had 56 yards rushing.
Somehow, the Bills should convince Allen he’s playing the Dolphins every week. In his brief career, he’s brought some of his best stuff against them. And while opening this with a 300-yard joke, Allen would surely hit that mark, perhaps even consistently, if he treated every team like the Dolphins. Aside from a quick series that saw him toss three straight incompletions, there was a lot of good from the QB in Week 11. Allen continues to not turn the ball over as well, as he hasn’t tossed a pick in 163 straight passes.
WR John Brown
Allen’s successes wouldn’t have been there if it wasn’t for Brown, though. In his best game with the Bills, Brown caught nine passes for 137 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins. Brown had 14 targets as well, so Allen was certainly looking for him a lot.
Brown’s 82.9 overall grade from Pro Football Focus gave him the team’s highest grade on the day and he’s in line to be one of the team’s most consistent playmakers in about two decades. No one expected that when he signed on the dotted line, but no one is mad about it, either.
Kyle Silagyi is joined by Rich Kowalski and McKenna Middlebrook to discuss three takeaways from the Buffalo Bills’ Week 11 win.
The Buffalo Bills took care of business in their Week 11 matchup with the Miami Dolphins.
The prospective playoff team was supposed to dominate its lowly division rival. The struggling defense was supposed to refind its form, making it difficult for Miami’s offense to make any sort of progress. Quarterback Josh Allen was supposed to pick the Dolphins’ 29th ranked defense apart, leading the team to a ‘statement’ game that would reaffirm its status as a legitimate contender.
In untypical Buffalo fashion, all of these events played out as planned, as the Bills dominated Miami en route to a 37-20 victory. On this episode of The Kyle Silagyi Variety Hour, host Kyle Silagyi is joined by BillsWire staff writers Rich Kowalski and McKenna Middlebrook to discuss their three takeaways from the Bills’ Week 11 victory. They also talk about the Los Angeles Chargers’ rumored move to London.
We pore over the rankings each week, size up the matchups and weigh the fantasy-point projections each week as we seek to set the best possible lineups.
Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
We pore over the rankings each week, size up the matchups and weigh the fantasy-point projections each week as we seek to set the best possible lineups.
Most of the forecasts prove to be more or less spot on, but there are still the overachieving surprises and disappointing duds each week, and these are the unforeseen outliers that wind up deciding the majority of matchups.
We’ve been taking of note players on both sides of the spectrum, and here, in our opinion, are eight of the most over- and underrated fantasy performers – going position-by-position – of 2019.
QUARTERBACK
Overrated – In making his return from a second straight injury-shortened season, Philly’s Carson Wentz was a popular QB1 pick this summer, and his 28.1-point opening-week outing (313 yards, three touchdown passes) appeared to have provided instant validation. But, nine games later, that’s easily proven to be Wentz’s best showing of the season as he’s only topped 24 fantasy points twice since then and comes out of play Sunday ranked 20th at the position with an average of 20 fantasy points per outing. A banged-up wide receivers corps certainly hasn’t made his life any easier, but Wentz has finished with multiple TD passes or 17.5 fantasy points or more only once since Week 4, putting him squarely in QB2 streaming territory.
Underrated – The Buffalo Bills really haven’t had a prolific offense since the Jim Kelly-Thurman Thomas-Andre Reed heydays a quarter-century ago, and after entering Week 11 ranked 25th in the league in scoring with 19.3 points per contest, the 2019 Bills don’t appear to be breaking that mold. Meanwhile, in fantasy, though, second-year QB Josh Allen – who wasn’t among the top 20 quarterbacks drafted in the majority of fantasy leagues this summer – is putting up QB1 numbers. Following his best outing of the season Sunday (256 passing yards, three aerial TDs and 56 yards and a TD on the ground), Allen ranks 10th at the position with an average of 23.6 fantasy points per game. But while Sunday’s showing in South Beach was his first 30-point game of the season, he’s delivered steady fantasy production, finishing with 20 or more points in six of his previous eight contests, with a season “low” of 16.2 in a game he didn’t even finish due to a concussion.
RUNNING BACK
Overrated – It hardly sounds possible that the lead back, who’s averaging 15.1 touches per game, on the run-heaviest (53.2 percent) and second most productive rushing squad (149 yards per game) in the league could be underperforming, but yet we have Tevin Coleman of the 9-1 49ers. Coleman does rank 17th in standard leagues (11.5) in terms of running back fantasy points per contest, but consider that 38.8 percent (35.8) of his 92.3 points on the season came in one game – his 118 total-yard, four-TD performance in Week 8 – and he’s finished with 12.1 points or fewer in six of his other seven contests, including five single-digit outings. Since that monster Week 8, Coleman has consistently been ranked as a solid RB2 but only has delivered a total of 17 fantasy points over those three games, including a meager 77 rushing yards on 33 attempts. And with Matt Breida (when healthy), Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. (when Breida is out), and even fullback Kyle Juszczyk continuing to be regularly involved as well, Coleman is simply a flex flyer at best until we see otherwise.
Underrated – The Rams’ Todd Gurley has been assailed for his usage decrease (16.3 touches per game – down from 21.8 over the previous three seasons and 2.0 receptions per contest – down from 3.7 from 2016-18) in a Rams’ offense that has struggled through most of the season, but , coming out of Sunday, we found Gurley ranked 11th (standard) and 16th (PPR) at his position in terms of fantasy points per game. He’s also tied for sixth among RBs with eight total TDs, having found his way into the end zone in six of nine contests. On Sunday night, Gurley hit season highs in rushing attempts (25), touches (28), total yards (133) and fantasy points (19.3/22.3) in the Rams’ 17-7 win over the Bears, and, believe it or not, has now scored double-digit fantasy points in seven of nine contests this season. Perhaps coach Sean McVay and the playoff-seeking 6-4 Rams have been saving Gurley for the all-important stretch run after he wore down late last season, and if so, Sunday night just may have offered a tantalizing view of things to come.
WIDE RECEIVER
Overrated – Check the top three of the wide receiver rankings, regardless of format, each week and you’re sure to find the Falcons’ Julio Jones listed. But through 11 weeks and 10 games now, Jones has only finished as a top-three wideout once and a top-10 performer only three times. Overall on the season, Jones ranks 13th among wide receivers in standard scoring (11.2 points per game) and 10th in point-per-reception formats (17.1 points), and the main culprit has been Jones’ now-seven-game TD-catch drought after snaring four scoring passes in the first three contests of the season. Jones famously failed to catch a scoring pass in the first seven games of last season, and in his current seven-game scoreless skid, he’s failed to wind up on the receiving end of any of the team’s 12 TD passes since Week 3 while watching teammates such as TE Austin Hooper (four receiving TDs in that span), WR Calvin Ridley (three) and RB Devonta Freeman (three) prosper during that span. Now, you’re likely still starting Jones each week, but expecting week-in and week-out WR1 production – let alone elite WR1 production – is simply unrealistic, especially as long as his latest TD drought continues.
Underrated – Even prior to his monster outing Sunday (season-best 25.7 standard points on nine catches for 137 yards and two TDs), the Bills’ John Brown was plugging along as one of the most overlooked consistent week-to-week fantasy performers. Allen’s speedy top target has finished with at least four catches and 50 receiving yards in all 10 of his games this season, and the only other wideout who can say as much is none other than league receiving leader Michael Thomas of the Saints. That means Brown has finished with at least 9.5 PPR points in every contest and is a rock-solid WR2, ranking 15th at the position with an average of 16.2 PPR points per outing.
TIGHT END
Overrated – Overvalued prospects at fantasy’s thinnest position are few and far between, but Lions rookie T.J. Hockenson is among the closest to qualify. Big things have been expected since his monster 19.1/25.1-point explosion in Week 1. Hockenson caught six of nine targets for 131 yards and a TD that afternoon in Arizona, but he’s caught all of 20 passes for 218 yards and one TD on 37 targets in nine games since while scoring no more than 8.7/11.7 fantasy points in any one contest. And now with backup QB Jeff Driskel at the controls for the foreseeable future, Hockenson is nothing more than a deeper-league streaming dart-throw.
Underrated – Starting in Week 4, with their WRs corps depleted, the Eagles have been one of the league’s most heavy “12” personnel teams. Second-year tight end Dallas Goedert has played at least 58 percent of the offensive snaps in all seven of those contests and has caught 22-of-34 for 241 yards and four TDs, good for 46.1/68.1 fantasy points. During that same seven-game span fellow Philly TE Zach Ertz has totaled 55.1/93.1 fantasy points, but while Ertz is seen as a must-start TE1, Goedert is lucky to appear on the list of prospective streamers most weeks. Don’t be fooled any longer, and realize Philly fields a pair of start-worthy tight ends.
EXTRA POINTS
Injured Lions QB Matthew Stafford ranks sixth among QBs with an average of 25.9 points per outing, and right behind at No. 7 is replacement Driskel at 25.4, establishing him as a solid streamer after only two starts. However, Driskel is averaging 239 passing yards per game and 6.63 yards per attempt to Stafford’s 312.4 and 8.59 figures, respectively, and is averaging 7.4 rushing fantasy points per game to Stafford’s .8 mark – all of which lowers the weekly fantasy ceilings and floors of the Detroit pass catchers.
One wide receiver who continues to produce despite his team’s less-than-ideal QB play is the Broncos’ Courtland Sutton, who notched his second 100-yard outing of the season in Sunday’s loss to the Vikings. A high weekly floor is what stands out for the second-year wideout as Sutton has received at least seven targets in 100 games this season and has had 56 receiving yards in all but one contest. He’s a locked-in WR2.
Another young wide receiver on the rise is 49ers rookie Deebo Samuel who’s been targeted 21 times over the last two games and has reeled in 16 for 246 yards. With TE George Kittle missing both contests and WR Emmanuel Sanders being limited to a combined 60 snaps due to a rib cartilage injury, Samuel has garnered seven more targets, eight more receptions and had 166 more receiving yards than any other San Fran player during that stretch. Samuel suffered a shoulder injury in the second half Sunday but came back in to put the wraps on a season-best 134-yard outing on eight catches and should continue to be involved even with Kittle and Sanders get healthier.
Back to the Motor City, take note that Lions RB Bo Scarbrough – signed to the practice squad two weeks ago and activated for the first time Sunday to face the team (Cowboys) which drafted him in the seventh round last season – logged 14 of the team’s 19 RB rushing attempts and finished with a team-most 55 yards and a TD in the 35-27 loss. Every team’s lead back has a degree of value this late in the season, and it looks like Scarbrough just may have jumped into the driver’s seat for the Kerryon Johnson-less Lions.
Out of nowhere, we suddenly have to beware of the Falcons’ defense. In its last two games, facing the division-rival Panthers and Saints, the Atlanta “D” has registered 11 sacks and four interceptions while not allowing a TD pass in posting a pair of 17-point-plus road wins. During their 1-7 start, the Falcons were torched for 19 touchdown passes while totaling only seven sacks and two interceptions. That makes the Falcons’ D a must-start in Week 12 with Jameis Winston and the Bucs (league-high 18 interceptions thrown and fourth-most 36 sacks surrendered) visiting Atlanta this coming Sunday.
What we learned, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, NFL week 11
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
With questions starting to creep in about the Bills and the overall outlook of their 2019 season, a comfortable, yet fun win, in Miami, was just what the doctor ordered for Sean McDermott’s team.
The Bills rebounded from a tough loss in Cleveland and got back on the winning track by lighting up the scoreboard at Hard Rock Stadium. Buffalo produced its highest-scoring output of the season in a 37-20 trouncing of the Dolphins.
The Bills offense got up off the canvas after a week of taking punches in the form of criticism from fans and local media for numerous subpar performances since September. Any offensive shortcomings the Bills have been experiencing this season were forgotten for most of the day Sunday as the Bills posted 424 yards of total offense and seven different scoring drives.
It was a big day for quarterback Josh Allen. Allen had his best outing of the season, completing 21 of 33 passes for 256 yards and three touchdowns. He also added 56 yards rushing and a rushing touchdown. Meanwhile, receiver John Brown had his biggest and best day yet for Buffalo with nine catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns.
The Buffalo defense had an overall strong day, even though Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 323 yards. The Bills sacked Fitzpatrick seven times and produced a takeaway for the first time since October. The run defense rebounded in a huge way by allowing Miami just 23 rushing yards. It was a major change for a run defense that had been gashed in recent weeks.
The Bills now sit at 7-3 and have to feel a bit more comfortable than they did last week about their playoff outlook. They can get to 8-3 this coming week back at home against the 3-7 Denver Broncos before they make their Thanksgiving trip to Dallas.
Here are four things we learned from the Bills’ win Sunday in South Florida:
John Brown’s big day saw him grab nine catches for 137 yards with two touchdowns.
The Bills have gotten a heck of a season from wide receiver John Brown and after a heck of a game from him in their 37-20 win over the Dolphins, he’s continuing to set team-records in his breakout season.
Brown’s big day saw him grab nine catches for 137 yards with two touchdowns.
After that outing, Brown holds three team records.
His 817 receiving yards is the most in team-history for any player after 10 games. His consecutive 50-plus yard games (10) is also the most in team history.
In those 10 games, he’s also had at least four passes, another record for Brown.
As one of the NFL’s most consistent targets this year, Brown current sits as the No. 8 wide receiver in terms of receiving yards this year in the entire league.
The Saints’ Michael Thomas leads the NFL with 1,141 yards already, but Brown ranks ahead of guys such as Seattle’s Tyler Lockett (793), Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins (745), New England’s Julian Edelman (716) and Cleveland’s Odell Beckham Jr. (692).
Video of Buffalo Bills WR John Brown throwing ball to fan in crowd wearing his jersey.
The Bills won in front of their own fans on Sunday in Week 11, sort of, and wide receiver John Brown appreciated one of them for wearing his number.
Down in Miami against the Dolphins, Bills Mafia made their presence known. There was a lot of red, white and blue in the crowd.
Brown highlighted the day for the Buffalo’s offensive output with nine catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns. Maybe his next trick is to get his arm involved, he looks the part.
WIVB-TV caught a video of Brown celebrating one for his catches against the Dolphins. To celebrate, he shared the moment that fan wearing his number and he drilled the target. Swoosh. Between the numbers. However you want to put it.
Pointing to a group of Bills fans, Brown tossed the ball. This fan wasn’t in the first row, though. He was pretty deep into the crowd but… Brown’s pass found him.
Check out the arm on the Bills’ No. 1 receiver:
John Brown: 🎯
After his 40-yard TD catch he finds a #Bills fans in the stands wearing his number and connects!
Buffalo Bills snap counts, notes, vs. Miami Dolphins in Week 11.
The Bills offense had their best showing of the season in Week 11 against the Miami Dolphins. The scoreboard is the litmus test and Josh Allen & Co. put up 37 points against Miami, a season-high.
The Dolphins managed to stick around throughout certain points of the game, but the Bills defense never really broke against the Fins, either.
Special teams were a different story, though.
Here’s a full depth chart breakdown via snap counts for the Bills vs. the Dolphins in Week 11:
Buffalo Bills wide receiver John Brown. Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Offense
Notes:
Cody Ford played in 72 percent of snaps at right tackle. Ty Nsekhe was down to 28 percent after leaving the game on a cart due to an ankle injury.
After taking two penalties in 18 snaps in Week 10, tight end Lee Smith saw his snap total drop to only seven against the Dolphins.
Devin Singletary continues to be the Bills’ feature back, appearing in 72 percent of snaps. Frank Gore played in 26 percent.
Dawson Knox appeared in 71 percent of snaps, far and away ahead of Tyler Kroft, who was the No. 2 tight end at 33 percent.
Isaiah McKenzie played in a season-high 78 percent of snaps on offense. After being scratched in Week 8, McKenzie has played in 68 percent, 54 percent and 78 percent of snaps, respectively, over the last three games.
Robert Foster did not record a snap at wide receiver on offense for the Bills.
John Brown paced wide receivers once again and played in 99 percent of snaps, a season-high. Cole Beasley also played in a season-high 90 percent of snaps vs. the Dolphins.
The Bills came out swinging against the Dolphins, who took an early lead and never looked back.
The Buffalo Bills continued their strong road performances this season with 37-20 win over the Miami Dolphins. The Bills are now 7-3, sitting pretty for a wild card spot.
After their loss against the Browns, the Bills offense was called into question by both their fans and the media. The Bills responded by pouring on 37 points against a poor Miami defense.
The Bills defense also came out and stopped the run, as well as getting pressure to the quarterback. It wasn’t a perfect game from Buffalo, but a step in the right direction after the disappointing loss to Cleveland.
After the victory in Miami, here’s how the Bills graded in this week’s report card:
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
Quarterback: A-
This was possibly the best performance by Josh Allen in his young career. Allen started the game strong, but on the first two drives he couldn’t create touchdowns, only field goals. On the third drive Allen found receiver John Brown for a 40-yard touchdown strike. Allen hit Brown who was streaking down the sideline, and Brown bumped off a defender before heading into the end zone.
After a drive that led to just a field goal, Allen worked some red zone magic and found tight end Dawson Knox who shrugged off a defender after the catch to walk in for the score on an all-out blitz from the Dolphins defense. In the third quarter Allen had an eight-yard scramble where he used his speed to reach the outside and hurdle for the score.
It wasn’t a perfect game for Allen, he didn’t complete many deep shots, and had some head scratching throws. Ultimately, Allen had one of the best games of his career. He completed 21 out of his 33 passes, a 63.6 completion percentage, he threw for 256 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
