Jets Patriots odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The New York Jets (6-3) visit a familiar foe in the AFC East rival New England Patriots (5-4) Sunday. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Jets vs. Patriots odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Both teams are coming off byes.

The Jets’ last game was a huge 20-17 divisional win as 11-point home underdogs vs. the Bills Nov. 6. The defense picked off Josh Allen — once the MVP favorite — twice. With what is arguably one of the top-cornerback duos in the league in rookie Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and D.J. Reed, the Jets defense has been playing phenomenally. The offensive attack was well balanced against the Bills with QB Zach Wilson throwing for 154 yards and 1 TD and RB Michael Carter rushing for 76 yards and 1 TD.

The Patriots’ last game was a 26-3 blowout of the Colts as 5-point home favorites Nov. 6. The defense played great and the offense did just enough. With 1 touchdown on offense, a pick 6 on defense and 4 Nick Folk field goals, the Patriots were able to do enough to beat a solid Colts defense. What worried many Patriots fans after the game was the inability of the offense to score touchdowns, but they are forgetting that the Colts have a great defense despite their 4-5-1 record — they rank 4th in least amount of yards per game allowed with 307.0.

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Jets at Patriots odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:44 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Jets +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Patriots -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Jets +3.5 (-117) | Patriots -3.5 (-103)
Over/Under (O/U): 38.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Jets at Patriots key injuries

Jets

WR Corey Davis (knee) out
RB Breece Hall (knee) out — injured reserve
OL Nate Herbig (shin) questionable
DL Sheldon Rankins (elbow) out

Patriots

P Jake Bailey (back) out — IR
DL Christian Barmore (knee) out — IR
LB Anfernee Jennings (shoulder) questionable
WR DeVante Parker (knee) questionable

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Jets at Patriots picks and predictions

Prediction

Patriots 17, Jets 14

Moneyline

BET PATRIOTS (-180).

The Jets are the hotter and better team, but they won’t get the win here. The Patriots have won 13 in a row vs. the Jets and expect them to make it 14 straight, while making the AFC East Divisional race even more interesting.

Neither team is great, but both are very solid. This game will come down to which second-year QB makes the bigger mistake, which will be the Jets’ Wilson.

Against the spread

LEAN JETS +3.5 (-117).

The Jets have been too good and too hot to not expect them to cover the spread. There is a very real chance the Jets outright win this game, but I’m predicting New York loses at most by field goal. Wilson is prone to making mistakes and the Jets will need to lean on the run game. If they can get a little bit from the pass game and a lot from the run game, they’ll be OK in this one.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 38.5 (-112).

These two defenses are too good for me to advise you to bet the Over. The Jets corners will force Patriots QB Mac Jones to make mistakes and it will not be easy for the Pats to get those big chunk plays down the field.

Expect this to be a slow, defensive, slog of a game that will come down to the end. This will not be a high-scoring contest and both of these teams are coming off a bye week and will be well rested.

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The New York Jets (1-4) visit the New England Patriots (2-4) in Week 7 at Gillette Stadium for their second meeting of the season. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Jets vs. Patriots odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The Jets had a bye last week after losing to the Atlanta Falcons 27-20 as 3-point underdogs in the NFL’s second London game of the year. New York is just 1-4 against the spread (ATS) and 2-3 Over/Under (O/U) on the year with their lone victory and cover coming against the Tennessee Titans in Week 4.

New England lost a 34-28 overtime thriller in Week 6 to the Dallas Cowboys as a 3.5-point home underdog. The Patriots crushed the Jets 25-6 in Week 3 as 5.5-point road favorites. New York rookie QB Zach Wilson‘s four interceptions were a major reason for New England’s lopsided win.

Jets at Patriots odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:12 a.m. ET.

Money line: Jets +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Patriots -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Jets +6.5 (+100) | Patriots -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 42.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Jets at Patriots key injuries

Jets

LB C.J. Mosley (hamstring) questionable

Patriots

OG Shaq Mason (abdomen) questionable
K Nick Folk (knee) questionable
DE Deatrich Wise (knee) questionable
DT Davon Godchaux (finger) questionable
LB Kyle Van Noy (groin) questionable
LB Dont’a Hightower (elbow/ankle) questionable
LB Josh Uche (shoulder) questionable
S Kyle Dugger (knee) questionable
CB Jalen Mills (hamstring) questionable
OL Shaq Mason (abdomen) questionable
DB Adrian Phillips (back) questionable

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Jets at Patriots odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Jets 21, Patriots 16

Money line

Slight “LEAN” to the JETS (+250) for a tiny wager if at all because I like New York plus the points in this spot and see a little value in the underdogs’ money line as mostly a bet against the overpriced favorite.

New England’s injury report is crazy. Who knows how much of that is based on head coach Bill Belichick’s gamesmanship or him giving veterans rest? However, most of New England’s defensive starters are dealing with an injury and New York is well-rested off its bye week.

Furthermore, the Jets have higher pressure rate, 3rd-down conversion rate and red-zone conversion rate differentials than the Patriots.

Finally, New York had more time of possession, total yards and 3rd-down conversions than New England in the Week 2 meeting. If New York can duplicate that performance and minimize mistakes, then the JETS (+250) could cash.

Against the spread

Definitely BET the JETS +6.5 (+100) heavier than or instead of their money line based on the analysis above and because there’s a smidge of “reverse line movement” heading in New York’s direction.

Roughly 90% of the money wagered is on New England, but the line has ticked down from the Patriots -7.5 on the opener to the current price (according to Pregame.com).

Also, doesn’t the Patriots laying less than a touchdown at home feel suspiciously cheap considering New England easily covered as a 5.5-point favorite in New York earlier this season?

On top of that, the Patriots are just 4-8 ATS as favorites since the beginning of last season. This isn’t your Tom Brady-led Patriots and there will be some growing pains with New England rookie QB Mac Jones.

TAKE the JETS +6.5 (+100).

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 42.5 (-105) for a small bet if at all because I prefer the New York side more than the total.

But New England is 4-8 O/U as a favorite since the beginning of 2020 and there’s been sharp line movement toward the Under. This total opened at 43.5 but has been bet down by both the “Pros” and “Joe’s.”

Week 7 best bets

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Tag: Jets Patriots odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

New York Jets at New England Patriots odds, picks and predictions

Jets at Patriots odds

Jets at Patriots key injuries

Jets at Patriots picks and predictions

Prediction

Moneyline

Against the spread

Over/Under