Joe Brady’s ability to adapt led to Bills offense onslaught in snow
After the Buffalo Bills’ 35-10 beatdown of the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13, the team is now 16-3 since Joe Brady was promoted to interim offensive coordinator after Week 10 last year.
Brady has changed the Bills’ offense to put his own flare on things. In return, the game has slowed down and simplified for Josh Allen.
No more sitting in shotgun for the majority of the game and spreading out five wide. No more relying on Allen to make things happen every other play.
Allen’s passing yards per game (224.3) is at its lowest since 2019. His rushing yards per game (27.8) is at its lowest since 2020. But most importantly, the team is off to its best start in decades at 10-2.
Brady’s approach has a direct impact on the 10-2 record. His playcalling style, although limiting to Allen’s statistics, has Allen with only five interceptions to this point. It’s on pace to be a career-low.
In return, the Bills are scoring points at the second-highest clip in the NFL (29.6 ppg). And, they are elite on offense all while keeping it simple.
Brady has made life the easiest for Allen that he’s seen thus far in his career. He’s spamming run plays until the defense stops it. He’s using motion pre-snap to uncover the defense. He’s using a sixth offensive linemen to make running easier. He’s going under center and using play action. Above all, he’s been willing to adjust and beat a team in a plethora of ways.
The Bills offense can shapeshift. And that’s exactly what they did in the Sunday night win.
According to the Buffalo Bills Notebook, the Bills were in shotgun for their first six plays in Week 13, and those plays resulted in just 12 yards. Brady decided to mix things up early. Over the Bills’ next 50 plays, Allen was under center for 38 of them.
On adjusting early, Brady said, “We knew it was going to be a weather condition game, but until you’re out there, every snow game is a little bit different.”
Until the Bills got out there in Week 13, they didn’t know just how bad the footing would be on the playing surface. After an early three-and-out, Bills players and personnel got on the same page and adjusted the game plan.
The shift in the offensive identity early on resulted in a season-high 220 rushing yards on their way to 35 points scored. James Cook averaged 7.6 yards per carry while Ray Davis averaged 5.7 per pop. The adjustment to playing under center was so effective that Allen and the starters were able to hit the bench early in the fourth.
That’s exactly what you want to see in an offense and a playcaller. First, the players’ talent and ability to be able to be used in different ways, and second, a coordinator’s trust and awareness to change things after just one failed drive.
Bills vs. 49ers: James Cook caps off longest play of career with snow angel (video)
The Bills found the end zone in the snow against the 49ers thanks to the longest rush of James Cook’s career.
Cook put his team up 14-3 thanks to a 65-yard rush in the second quarter. The speedster left everyone on the 49ers in the dust and he celebrated in the right way.
In a snowy affair, Cook and some of his teammates slid down on the ground and did a few snow angels in the end zone at Highmark Stadium.
3 keys to a Bills victory vs. the 49ers in Week 13
The Buffalo Bills will play the San Francisco 49ers at home at Highmark Stadium on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 13.
The Bills (9-2) are looking to build on a six-game win streak, while the 49ers (5-6) have lost their last two.
Buffalo is favored to win by seven points on Sunday night. The two teams haven’t met since 2020, when the Bills won on the road, 34-24.
Even though the Bills are favored and the Niners have struggled lately, they were still the NFC champions last year for a reason and they are a well-rounded team even though the wins haven’t shown up consistently.
The Bills will need to execute their game plan to pick up their tenth win of the year.
With that, here are three keys to a Bills win in Week 13:
Run the rock
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The 49ers have very few holes on their team, but if there is one area they need to improve upon it is their run defense. They rank 21st in the NFL in defense rushing DVOA.
The Bills are at their best when they have a balanced attack on offense, and I’d expect James Cook and company to get plenty of work. Last week, the Bills dominated the Chiefs in time of possession with quick passes and third-down conversions. This week, they should aim to do the same, but with more of a “pound the rock” approach.
Limit explosive runs
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While San Francisco ranks just 13th in the league in points per game (23.6), they rank an impressive fourth in the league in yards per game (384.5). A big reason why they rack up so many offensive yards is their ability to perform explosive plays in the run game.
The Niners’ offense ranks third in the NFL in 10+ yard runs, while the Bills’ defense allows the second-most 10+ yard runs. This will be a test for the Bills. If they can have sound tackling and limit big running lanes, it will help their chances immensely on Sunday night.
Move the chains on third down
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Last week, the Bills were 9-of-15 (60%) on third downs in the win over Kansas City. Their ability to extend drives is what led them to a win. On paper, they’ll have an opportunity to do the same this week.
Although the Niners rank in the top ten in both rushing and passing defense, they have been leaky on third downs. Their 43.7% third-down rate ranks 26th in the NFL. Josh Allen and the Bills offense, albeit with some injuries to pass catchers, should be able to move the sticks when necessary.
The contest that saw the teams’ final scores roughly on average for the season so far also had significant takeaways on and off the field.
But the biggest one belonged to Buffalo linebacker, Terrel Bernard.
With 1:07 left to play in the fourth quarter, the Bills’ defensive captain and play caller took away a Patrick Mahomes pass intended for Kansas City tight end and MGMT “Electric Feel” fan Travis Kelce for an end-game interception.
The entire Buffalo defense ran down to celebrate with him in the end zone after getting in front of Kelce to grab the ball out of the air.
“The main thing is just having awareness of him, “ Bernard said about covering the Chiefs TE to WIVB. “Pre, post-snap, trying to get guys around him as much as possible, playing within our scheme and our system still but understanding he’s going to be one of the first options every pass play.”
It was the second interception for KC’s Mahomes, whose first and last throws in Sunday’s game were caught by Buffalo.
Bernard, who was out during the last meeting between the clubs in January’s divisional round of the playoffs, also had eight tackles and a sack on the day to go with the big-time turnover.
“I think having that awareness, [defensive coordinator] Bobby [Babich] did a great job in the gameplan, all the coaches did, putting him in our minds all week and knowing where he was at and where he was going to be, what he likes to do in certain spots. I think that was a huge factor, and everybody playing to the details of the defense.”
Everything has changed for Kelce since his last matchups against the Bills in which he seemed unstoppable.
He may just want to shake it off, knowing all too well that Bernard and the Bills defense held him to only two catches for eight yards receiving.
But with the win the Bills now have a better shot at a No. 1 seed and a first-round bye, the Chiefs do as well although they are not out of the woods yet.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid was complimentary of the Bills when asked what his takeaways off the field were from the loss.
“Things you can learn, the main thing is that they’re a good team and, if you have a few mistakes in there, they can capitalize on them,” Reid said.
The teams could face off again in the postseason, and time will tell which club will play host to the other if they do.
Bills’ Josh Allen plays it cool after Chiefs: ‘It’s another Week 11 win’
Buffalo beat Kansas City in exciting fashion on Sunday.
The club topped the Chiefs 30-21 at home in Orchard Park in front of Bills Mafia on the same field where KC ended its postseason run last year.
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen put his superhero cape on for the Bills offense when it mattered most, breaking tackles and shaking off defenders for a 26-yard touchdown run on 4th-and-2 with 2:17 left in the fourth quarter to put the game out of reach.
After the game ended thanks to a win-sealing interception by Terrel Bernard on defense, Allen was asked about his scoring play by CBS sideline reporter Tracy Wolfson.
“Yeah, appreciate Coach McDermott for trusting the offense going out there,” he said. “We had a man play, they dropped out to zone and they had something good for it. I was just trying to make a play and help our team win a football game. You know, some things we need to clean up, some throws I wish I had back, but we’re going into the bye week 9-2…we’ll take it.”
Allen was sacked zero times for the first time against Kansas City since the 2021 regular season, and the team put up their 30 points without key players on offense in receiver Keon Coleman, tight end Dalton Kincaid, and offensive tackle Spencer Brown.
He finished the day Sunday 27-for-40 with 262 yards, a touchdown, and an interception passing to go with another 55 ground yards with the TD.
The scoring rush was his latest in a career highlight reel of making little-to-no/probability plays.
In fact, per NFL Next Gen Stats, there was only a 1.2% chance of scoring a touchdown on the play once he tucked the ball to run.
On 4th & 2 with 2:27 left in regulation, Josh Allen dropped back before breaking off a 26-yard TD run.
Allen had just a 1.2% chance of scoring a touchdown once he tucked the ball to run. It was Allen’s first scramble TD run against the Chiefs in his career.
The Bills hosted their AFC rivals for their fifth regular-season meeting with the QB under center.
The club is now 4-1 in those matchups, becoming the only team in the NFL to log four victories against Chiefs QB and State Farm insurance enthusiast, Patrick Mahomes.
The squad improves to 9-2 overall headed into their bye week. It’s the franchise’s first time at 9-2 since the 1992 NFL season.
The Bills have treated division games as “counting double” but had previously struggled to translate that in conference matchups that could have a bearing on No. 1 seeding and a first-round bye come playoff time.
But not this time.
The final points were roughly on average for what the two teams have put up throughout this season thus far, and it was the Chiefs’ first time giving up more than 28 points in 31 games and the first time allowing 30 points on offense since 2022.
And while Buffalo continues to have success against Kansas City during the regular season, Allen knows they need to beat them in the playoffs and spoke to that while answering whether it was just another Week 11 win for Buffalo.
“It is, it’s another Week 11 win,” he added. “Knowing how things usually play out we’ll probably see this team again at some point. We’ve got to get there first so like I said, we’ll enjoy this bye week and go into the next week after that and put together a good game plan and try to go 1-0.”
The Bills have enjoyed a resurgence in their running game this year. James Cook has had 80 or more rushing yards in three of his last five games, and he has five rushing touchdowns over that stretch. Buffalo has found a true complement to Josh Allen’s passing game. But, rushing yards should be tougher to come by this week.
The Chiefs allow the third-fewest rushing yards per game this year (83.2). And, advanced metrics back up their play, too. Kansas City ranks second in the NFL in defense rushing DVOA.
Whoever wins this matchup will play a big role in the game. If the Bills can run the ball effectively, it will open up anything they want to do on offense. If they can’t, they’ll have to rely on the arm and legs of Allen.
DE Greg Rousseau vs. LT Wanya Morris
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Kansas City’s left tackle has had his struggles this year, and he’s coming off a knee injury in Week 10. Rousseau, on the other hand, is having his best season as a pro.
Morris ranks as the 62nd-best offensive tackle in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, while Rousseau grades as the eighth-best pass rusher among edge defenders.
Rousseau has just 5.5 sacks through ten games, but he has been consistently getting after the passer. He ranks fourth in the NFL with 19 QB knockdowns and is tied for 10th in the NFL with 22 pressures.
Patrick Mahomes vs. the second level of Bills’ D
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The Chiefs quarterback loves to get the ball out quickly in head coach Andy Reid’s offense. They put a lot of trust in their skill players to catch underneath passes and produce yards after the catch. In turn, this puts a lot of stress on Bills defenders to make plays in space.
More specifically, Buffalo’s linebackers (and slot corner Taron Johnson) will have their hands full while trying to stop the run, cover the pass, and make sound tackles in space.
When these teams met in the divisional round of last season’s playoffs, the Bills were without Terrel Bernard in the middle of the defense. They had trouble on defense in that game, so we will see what kind of difference Bernard can make in this rivalry.
3 keys to a Bills victory vs. the Colts in Week 10
The Buffalo Bills will play the Indianapolis Colts on the road at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 10.
The Bills (7-2) are looking to build on a four-game win streak, the latest being a nail-biter against the Miami Dolphins. The Colts (4-5) are on a two-game losing streak, dropping close games to the Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings.
Buffalo is favored by four points in this one but recent history suggests otherwise. The team hasn’t won in Indianapolis since 1999 when Doug Flutie was under center. They have lost in their last six tries.
When the Bills try to end that streak on Sunday, they’ll be going against a very competitive ball club. All nine of the Colts’ games this year have been decided by one score or less.
The Bills will need to execute their game plan to pick up their eighth win of the year.
With that, here are three keys to a Bills win in Week 10:
Limit big runs from Jonathan Taylor
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Many are now doubting the Bills’ ability to stop the run after they were gashed by Dolphins runners De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. But, even though both averaged over five yards per carry in the game, the Buffalo didn’t allow them to have big runs.
After allowing a run of 20 yards in four of their first six games this year, the Bills haven’t allowed one in their last three games.
Enter Jonathan Taylor. In his one career game vs. the Bills in 2021, he ran for 185 yards and five touchdowns in a Colts blowout win.
After Taylor had a rough outing last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, you know he is looking to get back on track. He will most likely get chunks of yards at times, but if the Bills can make sure none slip away for big gains, it will help their chances on the road.
A balanced attack
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The best teams in the NFL are labeled that way because they can attack you in different ways. The Bills are no exception. They have leaned into a balanced approach under offensive coordinator Joe Brady and they have reaped the benefits.
It is no longer quarterback Josh Allen dropping back and trying to create something for the majority of the time. According to FTN Fantasy, the Bills rank seventh in the NFL in rushing DVOA while ranking third in passing. They are elite in both categories.
The Colts’ defense, on the other hand, is lacking in both categories. They rank 28th in passing DVOA and 17th in rushing. The Bills will have opportunities on offense, but tipping your hand and neglecting either the pass or run would make things more difficult than necessary.
Stay close to Josh Downs
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Joe Flacco loves to throw it to slot receiver Josh Downs. In he four games with Flacco under center, here are Downs’ numbers per game:
9.75 targets
7.5 catches
69.25 receiving yards
0.5 touchdowns
In a run-heavy offense for Indy, Downs has been the most targeted wide receiver on a per-game basis, and he has the most receiving yards per game. He also adds an average of 5.0 yards after the catch, per Fantasy Pros.
It would be a big boost if the Bills’ defense could hold Downs to minimal gains after the catch.
He likes to sit underneath in the holes of defenses, with an average depth of target of 6.6 yards. He’ll be a focal point of the Bills coverage in Week 10, and he draws a tough matchup with Taron Johnson in the slot.
The Buffalo Bills put together a nearly flawless road performance against the Seattle Seahawks in NFL Week 8 action. The Bills won easily 31-10.
The Bills (6-2) broke the spirit of the Seahawks (4-4), as the home team saw their frustrations turn inward with on-the-field fighting.
Buffalo opened the scoring with a two-yard touchdown reception. The Bills added a second score just before halftime, a 12-yard pass from quarterback Josh Allen to tight end Dalton Kincaid.
Buffalo’s defense suffocated the Seattle offense. The Bills only allowed a field goal in the first half.
The dominance continued into the second half, as Buffalo added two more touchdowns to expand the lead. Running back James Cook scored a pair of rushing touchdowns to put the game away for the Bills.
The Bills were in complete command all game. Buffalo outgained the Seahawks by a nearly two-to-one margin (445-233 yards). Buffalo had 29 first downs to Seattle’s 17.
Allen had himself an afternoon. He was efficient and effective, going 24-of-34 for 283 yards and two touchdown passes. The only blemish on Allen’s solid performance was that he threw his first interception on the season.
Rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman was impressive, reeling in a short contested-catch touchdown in the first quarter. He continues his ascent with Buffalo, catching five passes for 70 yards. Khalil Shakir had another impressive game, leading all receivers with nine catches for 107 receiving yards.
Kincaid found the end zone as well, topping off a solid four-catch afternoon. Both of tight end Dawson Knox’s receptions went for longer than 20 yards.
Cook had a tremendous afternoon, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. All told, Cook rushed 17 times for 111 yards and two touchdowns. Rookie Ray Davis added 29 yards on six carries. The offensive line was impressive, as they continually won the battle at the point of attack all afternoon. It was an overwhelming performance by the group, as they completely wore down the Seahawks in the trenches.
The Seahawks entered the game leading the NFL in passing yards. The Bills kept the Seattle offense from getting into any meaningful rhythm.
While quarterback Geno Smith was efficient with a 21-of-29 day, the Seahawks signal-caller never really had a chance to push the ball down the field. The absence of receiver DK Metcalf was noticeable, but even Metcalf would’ve had trouble with the way Buffalo’s secondary played. Buffalo gave up 90 passing yards during garbage time, which makes their performance even more remarkable.
Buffalo’s defensive line smothered Seattle’s runners all game long. Seattle’s running backs managed only 16 yards on 12 carries. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet were complete nonfactors throughout the game. This was an exceptional performance by the unit.
Kicker Tyler Bass was perfect on the afternoon, hitting all four PATs successfully. He added a short 27-yard field goal to his ledger as well. Punter Sam Martin averaged 49 yards on three punts. Both Bass and Martin were solid through rainy conditions.
Mack Hollins recovered a muffed punt late in the game. The play effectively sealed the game for Buffalo, as the Bills moved into victory formation shortly after.
The unit did take two penalties on returns, which hurt a bit. However, with such a dominant game in other aspects of play, the miscues did not cause massive harm.
Let’s give it up for the staff on this one. The entire game plan worked smoothly Sunday afternoon. Buffalo took control of the game early and imposed their will on the Seahawks.
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady put together another game plan that saw success both through the air and on the ground. The Bills kept drives going, completing 8-of-15 third downs. Multiple receivers were involved in the passing attack, which gave Allen several good options in the aerial attack. The run game controlled the point of attack, and the run calls were effective.
Defensively, coordinator Bobby Babich and head coach Sean McDermott put together a plan that stunted the Seattle offense. Without Metcalf, the Seahawks were without their most dynamic player. The Bills shut down all other options on offense. After Buffalo gained the lead, the run game was out of the equation.
The only flaw for Buffalo was their issue with flags. Once again, the Bills saw plenty of time with the refs. In this game, the Bills took 13 penalties for 85 yards.
Ray Davis earned himself a new nickname from Bills teammates
Buffalo Bills rookie running back Ray Davis has burst onto the scene over the past few weeks.
He far exceeded expectations in Week 6 while filling in for an injured James Cook, and with a healthy Cook in the lineup in Week 7 Davis still impacted the game.
His play has not only impressed NFL media and fans, but more importantly he has impressed his coworkers at 1 Bills Drive. His teammates have enjoyed his running over the past few weeks so much that they coined a new nickname for the rookie: “The Stallion.”
Ray Davis new nickname in the #Bills locker room:
“The Stallion”
David Edwards gets the credit.
Connor McGovern: “We love when he gets in, he’s not afraid to put his foot in the ground, get upfield and lower his shoulder.”#BillsMafiapic.twitter.com/2nQ46jg1Tm
Bills center Connor McGovern was quoted as saying, “We love when he gets in [the game].” And how could the offensive line not love him? He finishes runs with power and he squeezes the most yardage out of every run. He has maximized his opportunity thus far.
Davis’ coming out party was Week 6 against the New York Jets when he ran the ball 20 times for 97 yards and added three catches for 55 yards. 152 yards from scrimmage in your first extended action in the NFL… not too shabby.
When Cook came back in Week 7, Davis reverted to his supporting role. On just five carries against the Tennessee Titans, he still posted 41 rushing yards and an impressive touchdown:
Davis’ play through seven weeks has the football analytics world taking notice. According to Pro Football Focus, Davis is the highest-graded rookie running back in the NFL with a grade of 76.4. That grade is good enough for 17th among all NFL running backs.
The fourth-rounder out of Kentucky will look to build on his recent play during Week 8’s road trip to face the Seattle Seahawks.
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